Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The nickel market is experiencing intensified competition between expectations and reality, with nickel prices expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The market has shifted from "strong expectations" to "weak reality," and sentiment has turned from optimistic to cautious. The short - term outlook for nickel prices remains uncertain, with prices expected to continue to fluctuate widely [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Nickel Ore**: This week, influenced by the significant increase in LME nickel prices, Philippine nickel ore offers were slightly raised. However, downstream smelters, with sufficient previous stockpiles, had limited acceptance of high prices, and the procurement pace slowed significantly. Affected by rainfall, Philippine ore shipments were disrupted, and nickel ore inventories at Chinese ports decreased slightly. In Indonesia, the domestic nickel ore benchmark price was slightly raised, but the spot price was weak. Due to the rainy season, forestry reviews, and delays in MOMS system verification, mine shipments slowed down, and miners were reluctant to sell. Overall, the short - term nickel ore market has weak demand and supply disruptions but no significant tightening. Nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [11][12]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron in China rose significantly this week. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 31.23 yuan/nickel point to 946.4 yuan/nickel point (ex - factory tax included). This was mainly driven by the widening of the spot - futures price difference and upstream price support. Some Indonesian iron plants switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, and traders locked in goods for arbitrage, resulting in tight market supplies. Although the downstream is in the off - season, the increase in futures prices has improved the profits of stainless - steel enterprises, supporting the ferronickel price. In the short term, the high - nickel pig iron price is expected to remain strong [11][12]. - **Intermediate Products**: In the intermediate product market this week, the increase in nickel prices drove the profit recovery of some electrolytic nickel plants, and the demand for raw material inquiry and restocking gradually emerged. However, nickel salt plants were still cautious in purchasing due to sufficient previous stockpiles. The spot circulation of MHP was limited, and the tight supply supported the nickel and cobalt coefficients at high levels and stable operation. The supply - demand pattern of high - grade nickel matte remained tight, but downstream acceptance of high coefficients was limited, and trading was light. The coefficients are expected to continue to operate at high levels [11][12]. - **Refined Nickel**: This week, nickel prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, driven by the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and macro - loose sentiment, both domestic and foreign prices soared rapidly. However, in the middle of the week, due to a significant increase in inventory and limited downstream acceptance of high prices, prices dropped sharply. The sharp increase in LME nickel inventory and weak downstream demand quickly shifted the market from "strong expectations" to "weak reality," and sentiment turned from optimistic to cautious. In the spot market, the price and premium of electrolytic nickel generally increased, but downstream purchasing willingness was limited, with obvious speculative hoarding characteristics. Domestically, loose liquidity supported prices, but the postponement of overseas interest - rate cut expectations dampened sentiment. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,500 - 19,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to nickel, including the price trends of nickel futures contracts, nickel spot premiums and discounts, and prices of secondary nickel products such as ferronickel and nickel sulfate, providing a comprehensive view of the nickel futures and spot market [15][18][21]. 3. Cost - Side - **Nickel Ore**: The report shows data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, and nickel ore prices in Indonesia and the Philippines through various charts, reflecting the supply and price situation of the nickel ore market [26][28][30]. - **Ferronickel**: It presents the monthly production and production profit of ferronickel in Indonesia and China, helping to understand the cost and profitability of the ferronickel industry [32][34]. - **Intermediate Products**: Data on the production of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte, domestic imports of MHP and nickel matte, and the price and transaction coefficients of intermediate products are provided, showing the supply, demand, and price trends of the intermediate product market [36][38][40]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons. The report also provides charts on domestic refined nickel monthly production and enterprise operating rates [44][45][46]. - **Demand**: The report uses multiple charts to analyze the demand for refined nickel, including domestic stainless - steel production and inventory, manufacturing terminal demand, and real - estate demand [47][49]. - **Import and Export**: Charts show domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss, reflecting the import and export situation of refined nickel [51]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 32,814 tons to 344,377 tons. The report also shows domestic refined nickel inventory and LME regional inventories [53][55]. - **Cost**: Charts present the production cost of domestic refined nickel by raw material and the production profit margin by process [56]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report provides data on China's nickel sulfate production and net imports through charts, showing the supply situation of the nickel sulfate market [60][61]. - **Demand**: Charts show the installed capacity of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China, reflecting the demand for nickel sulfate [63][64]. - **Cost and Price**: It presents the production cost, price, and production profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials [65][66][67]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report details the supply - demand balance of the global primary nickel market from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and inventory data of various nickel products such as NPI, refined nickel, and nickel salts. It also calculates the supply - demand gap and its proportion, as well as the supply - demand gap and proportion of refined nickel, and shows changes in global refined nickel visible inventory [70][71].

【1月10日消息，自去年12月中旬起，镍价再度狂飙】1月6日，伦敦金属交易所三个月期镍期货价格猛 涨10.5%，逼近每吨18800美元，创2022年末以来最大单日涨幅。分析显示，这波涨势主要受两大因素 推动：全球最大镍供应国印尼有镍矿减产风险；中国国内金属市场掀起大规模投资热潮。 不过，这波 镍市"升温潮"已现降温迹象。截至1月9日，三个月期镍期货价格降至每吨17155美元，年初至今累计涨 幅3.3%。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 镍期货:1月6日涨10.5%,9日降至 17155美元 【1月10日消息,自去年12月中旬起,镍价再度狂 飙】1月6日,伦敦金属交易所三个月期镍期货价格 猛涨10.5%,逼近每吨18800美元,创2022年末以 来最大单日涨幅。分析显示,这波涨势主要受两大 因素推动:全球最大镍供应国印尼有镍矿减产风 险;中国国内金属市场掀起大规模投资热潮。不 过,这波镍市"升温潮"已现降温迹象。截至1月9 日,三个月期镍期货价格降至每吨17155美元,年初 至今累计涨幅3.3%。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have surged significantly since mid-December 2022, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and increased investment in China's metal market, although signs of cooling have emerged recently [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 6, 2023, nickel futures prices surged by 10.5%, nearing $18,800 per ton, marking the largest single-day increase since late 2022 [1]. - As of January 9, 2023, nickel futures prices fell to $17,155 per ton, reflecting a cumulative increase of 3.3% since the beginning of the year [1]. - The Shanghai nickel contract reached a peak of 147,720 yuan per ton, with a significant increase of nearly 24,000 yuan per ton from its December 2022 low [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia controls approximately 70% of global nickel production and plans to reduce its production quota by about 34% to 250 million tons by 2026 [3]. - The Indonesian government is also adjusting the pricing formula for nickel and imposing taxes on cobalt, which is expected to increase production costs [3][7]. - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's shift from production expansion to active regulation aims to stabilize prices and address supply concerns [3][7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The recent surge in nickel prices is partly attributed to a broader investment boom in the Chinese metal market, with trading volumes for nickel and other metals significantly increasing [4]. - Despite the recent price increases, there are indications that investor sentiment may be cooling, particularly in the precious metals market [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that without substantial coordinated production cuts or a significant recovery in demand, nickel prices are unlikely to remain high, with a forecast average price of $15,250 per ton by 2026 [1][9]. - The current oversupply situation in the nickel market is expected to persist, with projections indicating a surplus of 350,000 to 400,000 tons by 2026 [9]. - The effectiveness of Indonesia's production quota adjustments will be crucial in determining future nickel price trends, with strict implementation potentially leading to a tighter supply-demand balance [10].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have surged significantly since mid-December 2022, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and increased investment in China's metal market, although signs of a cooling trend are emerging [1][2][4] Group 1: Price Movements - On January 6, 2023, nickel futures prices on the London Metal Exchange surged by 10.5%, nearing $18,800 per ton, marking the largest single-day increase since late 2022 [1] - As of January 9, 2023, nickel futures prices fell to $17,155 per ton, reflecting a cumulative increase of 3.3% since the beginning of the year [1] - The Shanghai nickel futures contract reached a peak of 147,720 yuan per ton, with a significant increase of nearly 24,000 yuan per ton from its December 2022 low [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia controls approximately 70% of global nickel production and plans to reduce its production quota by 34% to about 250 million tons by 2026 [3][5] - The Indonesian government is also adjusting the pricing formula for nickel and imposing taxes on by-products like cobalt, which could increase production costs [3][5] - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's shift from production expansion to active regulation aims to stabilize prices and address supply concerns [3][6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Demand - The recent surge in nickel prices is partly attributed to a broader investment boom in the Chinese metal market, with trading volumes for nickel and other metals increasing significantly [4] - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about ongoing weak demand in the stainless steel and battery sectors, which could limit future growth [7][9] - The market anticipates that unless there is a substantial and sustained reduction in supply or a significant recovery in demand, nickel prices may not remain elevated [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if Indonesia strictly implements its production quota, nickel prices may stabilize at higher levels in the short term, but long-term supply overhang remains a concern [9] - The potential for structural substitution in nickel usage is limited, as changes in demand are primarily driven by cost and performance requirements rather than price fluctuations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in nickel prices, characterized by a sharp rise followed by a significant decline, is driven by a combination of policy expectations and fundamental market realities [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Nickel prices surged due to Indonesia's substantial reduction in nickel ore quotas, decreasing from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a 34% drop, alongside Vale Indonesia's mining operation suspensions [1]. - In a span of three weeks, nickel prices increased by over 36,000 yuan, exceeding 30% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel inventory rose by 20,000 tons, reaching a peak of 275,600 tons, indicating a supply surplus [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for nickel in the new energy battery sector grew less than expected, at under 8%, while stainless steel procurement remained sluggish due to slow real estate recovery [1]. - High inventory levels are projected to persist, with ING estimating a global nickel surplus of 261,000 tons by 2026, contrasting sharply with the optimistic supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Profitability - Upstream nickel mining and smelting companies benefited from the price surge, with companies like Huayou Cobalt seeing significant profit increases from rising nickel prices [2][3]. - Midstream processing companies face challenges in cost transmission, while downstream stainless steel and battery manufacturers are caught in a dilemma regarding pricing strategies, which could further suppress nickel demand [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The nickel market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with 140,000 yuan per ton identified as a critical support level [3]. - The future price trajectory hinges on the enforcement of Indonesia's production quota policy, with potential supply gaps of 10 to 20 million tons if strictly adhered to [3]. - Investors are advised to shift focus from policy expectations to fundamental realities, monitoring the execution of Indonesia's quota policy and global nickel inventory trends [4].

2026年首周，镍市全面爆发"开门红"行情，核心现货市场表现亮眼！1月6日据长江有色金属网获悉，长 江现货市场1#镍报价区间139750-149750元/吨，均价144750元/吨，单日暴涨4950元，创近期单日最大涨 幅；沪镍主力合约盘中突破13.8万/吨阶段性高点，伦镍同步冲高至17535美元/吨。镍市成为开年首个大 宗商品焦点。政策扰动、地缘紧张与资金情绪的三重共振，让镍金属在终端消费尚未完全回暖的背景 下，走出超预期上涨行情。 总体来看，2026年开局镍市的强势表现，是政策、地缘、资金三重因素共振的结果，但短期情绪驱动行 情难以持续，后续仍需回归供需基本面。从中长期看，全球新能源汽车产业对镍的需求增长趋势明确， 印尼湿法冶炼一体化项目产能爬坡将逐步改变行业供需结构。当前的市场波动，既是短期预期的集中释 放，也是布局优质龙头企业的重要观察期。建议重点跟踪长江现货、伦镍等核心价格指标及印尼政策落 地节奏，理性把握市场机会与风险边界。 （注：本文为原创分析，核心观点基于公开信息及市场推导，以上观点仅供参考，不做为入市依据 ） 长江有色金属网 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 此轮镍价上涨的核心驱动力， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On the 30th, the Shanghai nickel price rose significantly again, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 134,480 yuan/ton and closing at 132,390 yuan/ton, a increase of 3.86%. The total position increased by 18,000 lots to 346,000 lots. Driven by the news of the reduction of the Indonesian RKAB quota, the speculation sentiment of funds is still rising, and the fluctuation range of nickel prices has increased [7]. - Driven by the sharp rise in nickel prices, the prices of other products in the industrial chain are also rising. The NPI quotation increased by 2.5 to 914.5 yuan/nickel point on the 30th, which is regarded as a short - term rebound. The nickel salt price increased by 20 to 27,575 yuan/ton, and the short - term price will continue to rise [7]. - Affected by a series of news speculations such as the reduction of the Indonesian RKAB quota and the revision of the nickel reference price HPM, combined with the amplification of macro and precious metal fluctuations, the speculation sentiment of long - position funds in the nickel market remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to rise before the quota is finalized. It is recommended to wait and see and participate cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On the 30th, the Shanghai nickel price rose sharply, and the speculation sentiment of funds was heating up. The prices of NPI and nickel salt in the industrial chain also increased. The NPI price increase is regarded as a short - term rebound, and the nickel salt price will continue to rise in the short term [7]. - Affected by news speculations and market fluctuations, the long - position funds' speculation sentiment in the nickel market remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will have upward elasticity before the quota is finalized. It is recommended to wait and see and participate cautiously [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - From January to November, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. The export of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [8] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in the 2026 RKAB to about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons in 2025. The final implementation method is still unclear [10]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement new position limit rules from July next year, covering key contracts such as aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc futures, as well as related options and trading settlement contracts [10]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced fluctuations in December, initially declining before rebounding due to potential production cuts in Indonesia, which significantly impacts global nickel supply [2][15]. Nickel Mining Policy Disturbances - Indonesia accounts for 60-70% of global nickel production, and recent government plans indicate a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons set for 2025 [3][16]. - The Indonesian government is also set to revise the nickel pricing reference formula, which may increase mining costs by treating associated minerals like cobalt as separate commodities subject to royalties [3][16]. Nickel Ore Import and Pricing - Domestic nickel ore prices remained stable in December, with imports totaling 3.3395 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, primarily sourced from the Philippines [4][17]. - As of December 19, nickel ore inventories at 14 ports in China stood at 14.3914 million wet tons, showing a slight decrease from previous highs [4][17]. Nickel Iron Production Trends - Nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia reached 179,300 tons in November, reflecting a minor month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. - Despite a slight rise in high-nickel pig iron prices, production remains under pressure due to high inventory levels and losses faced by some domestic and Indonesian producers [6][19]. Refined Nickel Production and Inventory - Refined nickel production in China saw a significant decline of 14.8% in November, with total production for the year-to-date reaching 381,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.3% [8][21]. - Nickel inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise, reaching 45,280 tons by December 19, indicating a persistent oversupply in the market [8][21]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for nickel, primarily driven by stainless steel and battery production, showed signs of weakness, with stainless steel production in November declining to 1.7617 million tons, a decrease from October [10][23]. - The market for battery-grade nickel sulfate has also softened, with prices dropping to 27,430 yuan per ton, reflecting reduced downstream demand [10][23]. Summary - Overall, nickel prices are expected to stabilize towards the end of the year, influenced by Indonesia's announcements regarding production cuts and pricing revisions. However, the market remains characterized by high inventories and weak demand, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which may limit significant price increases in the near term [11][24].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's nickel mining association plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production targets by 2026, shifting from a focus on "scale expansion" to "value control" to stabilize resource value and guide the industry towards higher value-added segments [1][8] Group 1: Production Adjustments - Indonesia aims to lower its nickel ore production target from 379 million wet tons in 2025 to approximately 250 million wet tons by 2026, a reduction of over 34% [2] - This production cut is expected to tighten supply expectations, potentially supporting nickel prices if executed effectively [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global nickel market is currently in a state of oversupply, and while Indonesia's planned reduction may impact supply, other major producers like the Philippines and Russia could adjust their exports to fill the gap [3] - Weak growth in downstream demand, particularly in the new energy battery and stainless steel sectors, may limit the market's ability to absorb supply adjustments, constraining upward price movement [3][5] Group 3: Macro Environment - Global monetary policy, trade relations among major economies, and geopolitical factors will continue to influence market sentiment in the nickel sector [4] - A clear direction in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved global economic expectations could support nickel prices, while heightened risk aversion may suppress price performance [4] Group 4: Short-term Supply and Demand Outlook - Indonesia's production cut may lead to temporary adjustments in local companies' inventory and production, creating localized supply tightness [5] - However, other nickel-producing countries may increase output, and existing projects could come online as planned, partially offsetting the impact of Indonesia's reduction [5] - Demand from the new energy sector is slowing, and automotive companies may optimize nickel usage or seek alternative materials, while the stainless steel industry remains influenced by global manufacturing conditions [5]

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) experienced a significant stock price increase of 22% yesterday and continued to rise over 5% in the afternoon today, currently trading at 1.83 HKD with a trading volume of 32.1364 million HKD [2] - Market concerns regarding nickel supply have been heightened due to recent events in Indonesia, although the core conflict is not directly affecting major nickel production areas [2] - Futures analysis indicates that there is an expectation of overall nickel supply surplus by 2025, with improvements in Indonesian nickel ore supply but ongoing policy disruptions [2] Group 2 - Nickel prices are currently supported by emotional market sentiment, but this upward trend may lack sustainability unless the conflict escalates to impact major production areas [2] - Domestic stainless steel demand is relatively strong, providing support for nickel pig iron prices, which are expected to stabilize in the short term [2]