↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 一 、 钱在哪里 ？ 钱卡在了三个地方 。 从下图可以看出 ， 规上工业企业的应收款平均回收期在2015年只有35天 ， 现在则是70天 。 第一 ， 出口企业赚到钱后 ， 有7万亿美元留在海外没有结汇回国 ； 第二 ， 地方政府债务负担重 ， 拖欠了大量工程款 ； 第三 ， 地产和建筑公司由于三条红线 ， 现金流吃紧 。 对任何人来说 ， 现金流才是实打实的 ， 利润表上的利润并不能改变你的体感 ！ 这个账期在2017年以后 ， 就开始逐年抬升 。 这个时间点比较特殊 。 一方面是央行已经不再要求强制结汇 ； 另一方面是棚改货币化带来房地产涨价去库存 。 再往后就是卖地卖不动 ， 地方政府缺少收入来源 。 今年起 ， 每次大型会议 ， 都有 强调尽快解决拖欠企业的欠款 。 只不 ...

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 随着资产配置越来越成为很多人的日常选择 ， 后台和留言区里 ， 常常会出现一些相似 、 甚至彼此对立的问题 。 比如有朋友问 ： 市场不断走高 ， 是不是该多配点债 ？ 与之相反的 ， 也有不少朋友犹豫 ： 债市这两年不赚钱 ， 还有没有必要继续拿着 ？ 很对立 ， 但也很现实 。 除了股债 ， 也有人纠结黄金和大宗商品 ， 既然长期收益较低 ， 为何还得配 ？ 目前黄金处于历史高点 ， 现在不配可不可以 ？ 或者说什么样 的方式配置更合适 ？ 还有不少朋友 ， 对手里现金越来越不安 ， 总觉得会 越来越毛 。 但其实内心也明白 ， 现金是我们最大的选择权 。 这些问题看起来各不相同 ， 但仔细想想 ， 其实都挺常见的 。 问题并不激进 ， 也谈不上贪婪 ， ...

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 最近几年 ， 大家对经济的体感很不好 ， 但GDP依然保持较高的增速 。 这让很多人都质疑GDP的真实性 。 尽管利润有20万 ， 但你还垫付了50万 款项 ， 现金流量表上是负数 。 所以你不但不会扩大消费 ， 反而会勒紧裤腰带过年 。 GDP跟人们的体感就是这样关系 。 我们确实做出了较快的GDP增速 ， 但现金没有收到 。 现金去哪里了呢 ？ 01 不用质疑 ， GDP是真的 ， 体感不好也是真的 。 问题出在哪里呢 ？ 其中一个重要原因就是 账期 ！ 这就好比你今年卖了100万的货 ， 利润是20万 ， 但只收到客户50万的货款 。 问题来了 ， 临近春节 ， 你会愿意消费吗 ？ 钱在哪里 ？ 钱卡在了三个地方 。 第一 ， 出口企业赚到钱后 ， 有7万亿美元留在海外没有 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices closed on the last trading day of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09%, marking an 11-day winning streak and an annual increase of 18.41%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% but recorded a 29.87% annual gain, while the ChiNext Index dropped 1.23% but saw a significant annual increase of 49.57%. The STAR 50 Index rose 35.92% and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index increased by 38.8% throughout the year [2]. Sector Performance - On the last trading day, sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, internet, and cultural media saw the highest gains, while sectors like pharmaceutical commerce, batteries, oil, and semiconductors experienced the largest declines [3]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector continued to rise, with stocks like Tailong Co. achieving five consecutive daily limits, and companies such as Reco Defense and Hongying Intelligent reaching three consecutive daily limits. Other notable stocks included Changjiang Communication, Beidou Star, Urban Development, and Fenghuo Communication, all hitting their daily limits [5][6]. - A meeting held by the Hainan Provincial Aerospace Leadership Group discussed the 2026 launch plans for the Hainan commercial aerospace launch site, emphasizing the importance of the project's successful construction and operation for supporting the nation's aerospace ambitions. The meeting outlined key tasks, including seizing strategic opportunities and enhancing industry status [9]. - Jiangxi Lianchuang Superconducting Technology Co., Ltd. successfully delivered a project related to a "high-power low-temperature refrigeration system and model superconducting magnet," marking a significant achievement in the commercial aerospace electromagnetic launch field [10]. New Stock Listings - The new stock Hengtongguang listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange saw an unprecedented opening surge of 1000%, reaching a maximum intraday increase of 1087.08%, and closing with a remarkable gain of 878.16% at 309.00. The company focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices in the optical communication field [11][12]. Investment Sentiment - Investors reflected on their experiences in 2025, with some expressing regret for missing out on the hard technology sector's gains while remaining committed to value investing principles. The sentiment highlighted the importance of patience and long-term holding of quality assets like Kweichow Moutai, despite market volatility [16][18]. - The discussion also included strategies for 2026, with plans to continue holding quality stocks and selectively increasing positions in companies with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the three main scenarios of fund losses and provides guidance on whether to hold or sell under different circumstances, emphasizing the importance of understanding the root causes of losses and the long-term logic of industries [7][10][28]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The first scenario of fund losses occurs when the entire market is declining, which is referred to as systematic risk. This type of risk is unpredictable and unavoidable, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis when the market dropped by 60% [10][12][13]. - The market experiences cyclical changes, transitioning from prosperity to recession and back to prosperity, indicating that economic recovery and market confidence will eventually return [15][16]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Issues - The second scenario involves specific industries or themes experiencing downturns. For instance, the photovoltaic industry faced a downturn from 2021 to 2023 due to rapid capacity expansion, but demand remains, suggesting that holding onto investments may be wise if the long-term logic of the industry hasn't changed [18][22][25]. - Investors should assess whether the fundamental logic of the industry has shifted before deciding to sell [27]. Group 3: Fund Management Problems - The third scenario, which requires the most caution, is when the fund manager's management leads to losses. Key indicators include: 1. Long-term performance significantly underperforming peers, necessitating a review over a complete market cycle [30][31]. 2. A shift in investment style, where a fund manager deviates from their stated strategy, indicating a potential gamble rather than a sound investment approach [33]. 3. Departure of a key fund manager, which can lead to a decline in performance if the fund's success was heavily reliant on that individual [36]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - The article suggests that while temporary losses are normal, understanding their causes is crucial for effective management. It highlights the human tendency to react emotionally when losses exceed 20% [39]. - To mitigate risks during market downturns, diversifying across different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities can help reduce overall risk, as these assets often have low correlation [44][50]. - Although diversification may dilute potential gains during strong bull markets, it is presented as a suitable investment strategy for ordinary investors seeking to minimize volatility [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the difference between assets and liabilities, highlighting that many high-income individuals fail to accumulate wealth due to poor investment choices and excessive consumerism [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Understanding - The article advocates for a clear definition of assets and liabilities, stating that assets are things that put money into one's pocket, while liabilities take money out [5]. - It stresses that many people mistakenly consider liabilities as assets, leading to financial instability [6][7]. - The article references the views of successful investors like Buffett and Munger, who criticize the investment in gold due to its lack of cash flow generation [9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The concept of "face tax" is introduced, where unnecessary spending to maintain appearances is criticized as a significant financial drain [3][10]. - The article discusses the "luxury car paradox," where high-cost items depreciate quickly and become liabilities rather than assets [10]. - It encourages individuals to redirect funds from superficial consumption into investments that generate real value, such as index funds or rental properties [10]. Group 3: Wealth Accumulation Strategies - The article outlines three key strategies for high-income earners to avoid pitfalls and build wealth: focusing on cash flow direction, avoiding face consumption, and establishing a passive income system [8][11]. - It suggests starting with a small percentage of income to invest in true assets and gradually building a passive income stream [12]. - The ultimate goal is to achieve financial freedom, defined as having the ability to choose how to spend time without financial constraints [12].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.49% and 0.66% respectively, with a total trading volume of 2.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Over 3,300 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad market weakness despite some sector performances [2] Key Sectors Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector continued to show strong performance, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Shenjian Co. which achieved an eight-day consecutive limit-up [10] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced new guidelines to support commercial rocket companies in listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with several companies already initiating IPO processes [13] Precious Metals - Significant volatility was observed in precious metals, particularly silver, which saw a price fluctuation of approximately 9% in a single day, with a peak price of over 83 USD per ounce [5] - Silver prices have surged over 185% year-to-date, with expectations for a record annual performance since 1979, driven by strong demand and supply imbalances [7] - Retail investor sentiment remains bullish, with 57% expecting silver prices to exceed 100 USD per ounce by 2026, contrasting with only 27% of institutional analysts sharing this view [7] Digital Currency - The digital currency sector saw a rise in stock prices, with companies like Lakala increasing by over 10% following the announcement of a new action plan by the People's Bank of China to enhance the digital yuan management and infrastructure [14][18] - As of November 2025, the digital yuan has processed 34.8 billion transactions totaling 16.7 trillion yuan, with significant cross-border payment activity [18] - The action plan aims to leverage the advantages of the digital yuan in various financial applications, including payment settlements and financing [19]

以下文章来源于郭施亮 ，作者郭施亮 郭施亮 . 财经评论员、专栏作家，2013年度搜狐最佳行业自媒体人。香港大公财经特约评论员、每经智库专栏作家，并多次受邀广东省人民政府发展研究中心等权 威机构撰写多篇学术文章。其作品刊登于香港文汇报、新华社《瞭望》、人民日报海外版等数十家权威报刊。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 郭施亮 在美元大幅走弱的影响下 ， 促使人民币汇率被动升值 ， 同时也促使大部分与美元指数呈现出负相关的资产出现了可观的涨幅 。 在投资市场中 ， 常有一句话是这样说的 ， " 一鲸落 ， 万物生 " ， 美元指数涨跌对大部分资产价格带来较大的影响 。 这一轮美元贬值潮 ， 不 仅带动了金价的持续上涨 ， 而且还带动了股市等资产的持续回暖 。 美元指数持续下跌 ， 促使人民币汇率的被动升值 。 不过 ， 影响人民币汇率走向的因素 ， 远不止美元指数这一项指标 。 例如 ， 国内经济基本 面的持续改善 、 市场投资情绪升温以及外资的积极流入等 ， 都会对人民币汇率起到积极的提振影响 。 在人民币汇率重 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 沪指8连阳，截至收盘，沪指涨0.1%，深成指涨0.54%，创业板指0.14%。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿，较上一个交易日放量2357亿。 商业航天概念再度爆发，神剑股份7连板，中国卫星3连板，通宇通讯、隆基机械、上海港湾等十余股涨停。 有色大涨，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业均创历史新高。海南自贸概念反复活跃，海南发展6天5板。 造纸、白酒、算力硬件等板块跌幅居前，其中算力硬件概念表现较弱，长光华芯跌超11%。 01 8900亿紫金矿业 历史新高 今天盘中，沪铜期货主力合约、沪金期货主力合约、沪银期货主力合约、铂期货主力合约盘中集体创历史新高，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中一度突破 13万元/吨关口。 有色金属板块集体走强，两大龙头股紫金矿业、洛阳钼业股价大涨，均创历史新高。 其中紫金矿业大涨4.68%，单日成交额95亿元，最新市值8915亿元。 | 33.53 +1.50 +4.68% CN 融 通 L1 | 64.82万人加自选 ( = = == > | | --- | --- | | 高 33.77 开 32.60 量 286.20万手 总市值 8915.54亿 | | | 低 32. ...

以下文章来源于懒汉养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒汉养基 . 懒人养基小号【懒汉养基】。主号【懒人养基】专注于基金投资，小号【懒汉养基】则记录并小范围分享自己个人成长、投资理财、旅行旅居、读书休 闲、健身养生等方面的一些思考、感悟和经历。感兴趣的朋友欢迎关注。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 懒人养基 来源：雪球 投资市场从来不缺热闹 ， 每天都有涨跌交替的狂欢与落寞 ， 也从不缺怀揣期待的入局者 。 但多数人未曾想过 ， 投资路上最可怕的不是亏损本身 ， 而是一种 " 无规划 、 无判断 、 无预案 " 的三无状态 —— 把未来交给运气 ， 把许愿当 成决策 ， 直到身陷绝境才慌不择路地四处求救 。 扎心的是 ， 这几乎是所有投资入门者的必由之路 ， 也是筛选出成熟投资者的第一道门槛 。 01 把许愿当决策 很多人踏入市场的第一天 ， 就带着一个强烈的 " 愿望 " ： 想赚钱 ， 想赚快钱 ， 想赚大钱 。 但这个愿望永远停留在 " 想 " 的层面 ， 从未变成 可执行的计划 。 他们既不看经济基本面 ， 也不分析 ...