简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业日报 周四，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3100 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，10 合约基差 141（-5）。基本面方面，根据钢联 统计口径，螺纹钢表需环比下滑，可能有端午假期影响，不过需求季节 性走弱只是时间问题，当下长流程钢厂利润尚好、短流程利润不佳，螺 纹产量连续两周下滑，本期库存去化放缓，整体而言供需相对均衡，后 期可能小幅累库。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格已经跌至 长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，近期国内 出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需转向宽松，短期 在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行，观望或者短线交易为主。(数 据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿石盘面震荡运行。钢厂出口生产持续和中美再度谈判对矿价 有所支持。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 728 元/湿吨（-5）。普氏 62%指数 95.65 美元/吨（-0.70），月均 95.91 美元/吨。PBF 基差 68 元/吨（- 2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,830.6 万吨，环+101.5。45 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, suggesting that the prices of these commodities will generally show a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][3][4]. - **Steel**: The price of rebar futures rebounded significantly on Wednesday. The increase was driven by the rise in coking coal prices. The current supply - demand situation is turning loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is affected by macro - news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730 [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, but the spot market lacks substantial support. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and there is still downward pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel - **Price**: The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,120 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (-16) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent production and sales data of rebar are good, and the apparent demand remains stable. However, the seasonal decline in demand is only a matter of time. The profit of long - process steel mills is good, while that of short - process steel mills is poor. It is expected that the steel production will decline steadily, and inventory depletion will slow down or accumulate slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price of rebar has fallen near the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a low level. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Price**: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (+6), the Platts 62% index was 96.35 US dollars/ton (+1.00), and the monthly average was 96.00 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 70 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69 [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news. The high - output transportation at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines will generally take effect in early July. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly on Wednesday, but the spot market lacks substantial support [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have increased regional production cuts due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is still relatively stable. The inventory pressure of coal mines is gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. The import volume of Mongolian coal is restricted by weak demand, and the inventory in the supervision area continues to accumulate to a high level, putting pressure on traders' quotations. The negative feedback in the coke market continues, and coke enterprises maintain a low level of raw material inventory, mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The molten iron output of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the raw material price - cutting intention has increased, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to focus on the supply - side news disturbances, the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises, and the impact of imported coal cost changes on the domestic market sentiment [3]. Coke - **Price**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated on Wednesday, but the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production rhythm of coke enterprises in the main production areas remains stable, and some regions maintain normal production restrictions, but the overall capacity utilization rate has not changed significantly. Recently, the coke inventory shows regional differentiation, and the inventory pressure in the production area is gradually emerging. The trading volume in the port trade link remains low due to weak market sentiment. The terminal steel market has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, the molten iron output of steel mills has clearly peaked and declined, and the procurement enthusiasm has significantly weakened, mainly for rigid replenishment [4]. - **Outlook**: There is still downward pressure on the coke price. The current market game focus is on the matching degree between the unbalanced distribution of industrial chain profits and the expectation of terminal demand recovery. If the steel sales continue to be weak, the negative feedback transmission effect may further intensify the coke price adjustment [4]. 4. Industry News - **Weather**: From June 4th to 5th, most parts of the country will be sunny with little rain. Starting from the day after tomorrow, large - scale rainfall will occur in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China, with severe local rainfall and strong convective weather [5]. - **Price Adjustment**: Some steel mills in Hebei have proposed to cut the coke price by the third round. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and that of tamping dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charging wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 70 yuan/ton, and that of top - charging dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 75 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 6, 2025 [5]. - **Project Progress**: On June 4th local time, Hu Wangming, the Party Secretary and Chairman of Baowu, inspected the Ashburton iron ore project in Australia. The project is in the production capacity ramping - up stage and aims to achieve an annual full - system capacity of 30 million tons in the third quarter of this year [5]. - **Production Resumption**: On June 4th, a 2500m³ blast furnace and supporting rolling mill of Shougang Shuigang resumed production, with a daily increase of 0.6 million tons of construction steel production [5]. - **Urban Renovation**: In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to April, 5,679 old urban residential areas have started renovation [5].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业团队 2025/5/30 公司资质 周四，螺纹钢期货价格小幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 142（-4），主要是美国法院裁定特朗普 关税无效，市场风险偏好提升，基本面方面，钢联统计口径产销数据较 好，螺纹钢表需持稳，不过需求季节性走弱只是时间问题，当下钢厂利 润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，螺纹即将进入累库周期，同时随着原料价 格下跌，钢材成本中枢下移。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格 已经跌至长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端， 中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业 端，现实供需转向宽松，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿石盘面小幅反弹，美国法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法，国际 宏观情绪有所调整，但最新消息表明美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税暂时 继续生效。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 740 元/湿吨（+8）。普氏 62%指 数 97.20 美元/吨（+0.30），月均 99.24 美元/吨。 ...

◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，10 合约基差 140（+4）。基本面方面，上周螺纹 钢表需回落、产量回升，库存去化速度放缓，需求即将季节性走弱，而当 下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，供需矛盾将会逐步显现，同时原 料价格下跌，钢材成本中枢下移。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货 价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端， 中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业 端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价 格震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 铁矿石 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 2025/5/28 周二，铁矿石盘面弱势运行，主要受出口热度下降和煤炭阴跌影响。现 货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 733 元/湿吨（-7）。普氏 62%指数 96.45 美元/ 吨（-1.2），月均 99.50 美元/吨。PBF 基差 76 元/吨（-1）。供给端： 最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,729.10 万吨，环+23。45 港口+2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall black - series commodity futures declined on May 27. The steel price continued to move down, and the market sentiment was pessimistic due to the second - round proposed price cut of coke. The supply of raw coal was strong while the demand was weak, and the market participants were in a wait - and - see state. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Overview - On May 27, the black - series commodity futures declined. The rebar closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke continued to fall [1] Market Analysis - The steel price continued to decline, and the steel mills proposed a second - round price cut of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The coke futures price hit a 9 - year low, and the coking coal futures price rebounded after an early - morning decline. After the first - round price cut, the profit of coking enterprises turned negative. Both coking and steel enterprises had a negative attitude towards purchasing raw coal, and the inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises decreased by 2.17% to 865.73 million tons. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 3% to 86.3%, the raw coal inventory increased by 18 million tons to 624.8 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 37.1 million tons to 447.5 million tons. The trading volume of coking coal online auctions decreased, with a flow - auction ratio of 51.9%, a 11.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, investors should take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, investors should take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The market supply - demand relationship had no obvious change, and the market sentiment was weak under the expectation of the second - round price cut of coke. The terminal market was in a wait - and - see state, and the seasonal demand was weak. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3140 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 40 元/吨，10 合约基差 136（+2）。基本面方面，上周螺纹 钢表需回落、产量回升，库存去化速度放缓，需求即将季节性走弱，而当 下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，供需矛盾将会逐步显现。后市而 言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处 于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规 模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转 弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿石盘面震荡偏弱，主要受宏观情绪和煤炭阴跌影响。现货方 面，青岛港 PB 粉 740 元/湿吨（-13）。普氏 62%指数 97.65 美元/吨 （-1.30），月均 99.69 美元/吨。PBF 基差 75 元/吨（-3）。供给端： 最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,729.10 万吨，环+23。45 港口+247 钢厂 总库存 22,913.31 万吨，环-213.94。247 家钢企铁水日产 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格窄幅震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较 前一日持平，10 合约基差 139（-2）。宏观方面，中美会谈成果超预期， 双方大幅互降关税，国内货币政策利多已经落地，不过市场仍在期待财 政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢表需大幅回升，库存再度去化，但是 需求即将面临季节性走弱压力，当下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足， 后期供需矛盾会逐步显现。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格 低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸 易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现 实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震 荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，铁矿石盘面窄幅震荡。受抢出口和高铁水意思影响，价格在相对 高位继续调整。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 765 元/湿吨（+2）。普氏 62% 指数 100.15 美元/吨（+0.05），月均 99.9 美元/吨。PBF 基差 81 元/ 吨（-1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,706.10 万吨，环+ ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black - industry products including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and also presents relevant economic news. It suggests that different products face different supply - demand situations and price trends in the short - term [1][3][4]. - **Rebar**: Despite the improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the implementation of favorable domestic monetary policies, the market is still waiting for fiscal policy support. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to low valuation but weakening demand [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is affected by factors such as the fading of tariff - related positive sentiment, uncertain export rush, and insufficient domestic demand. The 09 contract is expected to trade in a range, and 9 - 1 arbitrage opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the profit - repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises and import coal price fluctuations [3]. - **Coke**: The market is short - term weak and may face a second round of price cuts if terminal demand does not improve. Key factors to watch include steel sales, blast - furnace operation, and coking coal cost support [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Price**: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 142 (+11) [1]. - **Macro**: Sino - US talks had better - than - expected results with significant tariff cuts, and domestic monetary policy benefits have been implemented, but the market is waiting for fiscal policy [1]. - **Industry**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded significantly, and inventory decreased again. However, demand will face seasonal weakening, and steel mills have little willingness to cut production due to good profits [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price is lower than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a low static valuation. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Iron Ore - **Price**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 763 yuan/wet ton (+1), the Platts 62% index was 100.10 dollars/ton (- 0.25), and the PBF basis was 82 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Supply - demand**: The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,706.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 283.7. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,127.25 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.44. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [1]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see or focus on 9 - 1 arbitrage opportunities [1]. Coking Coal - **Supply**: Domestic main - producing area coal mines have stable production, and the supply of coking coal remains abundant. The online auction failure rate of coal mines is high, and some coal prices are falling [3]. - **Demand**: After the first round of price cuts for coke, the profit of coking enterprises has narrowed, and they maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy. Steel mills also keep low - inventory operation [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally resolved, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [3]. Coke - **Supply**: After the first - round price cut, the profit of coking enterprises has narrowed, but cost support allows normal production. However, the production enthusiasm of some coking enterprises varies [4]. - **Demand**: Hot - metal production is at a high level, but terminal demand recovery is weak. Steel mills adopt a low - inventory strategy and mainly purchase for rigid demand [4]. - **Outlook**: The market is short - term weak, and there may be a second - round price cut if terminal demand does not improve [4]. Economic News - **LPR**: In May, both the 5 - year and 1 - year LPRs were cut by 10 basis points. The 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [6]. - **Industrial Output**: In April, the output of Chinese rebar was 17.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the output of medium - thick wide steel strips was 18.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The output of cars was 2.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the output of air - conditioners was 30.833 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [6]. - **Re - production**: Jilin Jianlong's non - oriented silicon steel production line resumed production ahead of schedule on May 15 [6]. - **Mortgage Rate**: The first - home mortgage rate in China will enter the "2 - digit" era, reducing the monthly mortgage payment for homebuyers [6].

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 131（+3）。宏观方面，中美会谈成 果超预期，双方大幅互降关税，国内货币政策利多已经落地，不过市场 仍在期待财政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢表需大幅回升，库存再 度去化，但是需求即将面临季节性走弱压力，当下钢厂利润尚好，主动 减产意愿不足，后期供需矛盾会逐步显现。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺 纹钢期货价格低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面， 政策端，中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低估值背景 下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿石盘面窄幅震荡。受抢出口和高铁水意思影响，价格在相对 高位继续调整。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 762 元/湿吨（-3）。普氏 62% 指数 100.35 美元/吨（-0.75），月均 99.86 美元/吨。PBF 基差 83 元/ 吨（+2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,706. ...