Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with potential for price increases if downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October. The black - metal sector is supported by the approaching peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling [4]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term volatility adjustment is expected, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, despite potential recovery in domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [13]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade at the bottom, with silicon iron and manganese silicon both showing bottom - oscillating trends [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a 12.3% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a 2.5% increase; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a 1.6% decrease; and color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a 3.2% decrease. As of September 18, the total volume of overhauled blast furnaces in 16 sample steel mills in Shanxi was 2010m³, with an overhaul volume ratio of 4.7%, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 12.3% higher than the same period last year [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar was 3240 yuan (- 20), and in Beijing, it was 3170 yuan (- 20). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3420 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, it was 3340 yuan (-) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile at night. Iron - water production increased slightly this week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. Due to losses, EAF production decreased, and long - process production lines also switched production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other varieties continued to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the reduction in rebar production led to inventory depletion, while other varieties accumulated inventory. Steel demand is expected to recover slightly next week, and the black - metal sector is supported by the peak season and pre - holiday stockpiling [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel prices will be volatile and bullish. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options on RB01 [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a 44,000 - ton increase. The raw - coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase, and the clean - coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from last week [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Coking coal and coke were volatile at night. The coking coal spot market sentiment is good, with prices rising and auction flow rates decreasing. Downstream enterprises will stockpile raw materials before the National Day, supporting spot prices. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term volatility adjustment, mid - term buying on dips. Arbitrage: Enter the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal on dips. Options: Hold. Futures - cash: Hold [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale. On September 18, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore was narrowly volatile at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. Iron - ore prices may face pressure at high levels [13]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not fully provided in the report, but the analyst's information is given [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 18th, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.02%) at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree. Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese - ore shipping price to China [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Silicon - iron spot prices were stable on the 18th. Supply rumors were false, and supply remained high. Demand was supported by steel production. Manganese - silicon spot prices were stable, with alloy - factory production increasing slightly. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, but cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore [16]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating. Arbitrage: Hold. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations on rallies [17][19].

Group 1: Market Information 1. Futures Prices - For rebar futures, RB05 was at 3237 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 3074 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and RB01 at 3168 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - For hot - rolled coil futures, HC05 was at 3388 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from yesterday), HC10 at 3424 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), and HC01 at 3390 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Rebar spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian was 3230 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng was 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc [3]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices: Tianjin Hegang was 3340 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Lecong Rigang was 3400 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), etc [3]. 3. Price Spreads - Rebar: The spread between Shanghai and Beijing was 70 yuan/ton (unchanged), between Shanghai and Jinan was - 50 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), etc [3]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spread between Shanghai and Tianjin was 20 yuan/ton (unchanged), between Shanghai and Lecong was 20 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [3]. 4. Profits - Rebar: 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 was - 85 yuan (up 5 yuan from yesterday), 10 - contract was - 233 yuan (up 9 yuan), and 01 - contract was - 132 yuan (up 1 yuan) [3]. - Hot - rolled coil: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 was 77 yuan (down 7 yuan from yesterday), 10 - contract was 117 yuan (down 5 yuan), and 01 - contract was 90 yuan (down 13 yuan) [3]. Group 2: Market Judgement 1. Related Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye was 3190 yuan (- 10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3430 yuan (+ 20), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan (-) [8]. 2. Trading Strategy - The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with overall weak spot trading volume, weaker than yesterday [9]. - This week, molten iron production increased slightly, less than expected. National building - material production decreased as rebar production was cut due to large losses, while hot - rolled coil production still increased [9]. - Inventories continued to accumulate, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Downstream demand improved as the temperature dropped. Hangzhou's inventory was depleted faster, and rebar warehouse receipts were quickly cancelled [9]. - With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve. Considering pre - National - Day restocking, the black - metal sector has support. If downstream demand in October recovers more than expected, steel prices may rise further. The Fed's interest - rate cut schedule and the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect the market [9]. - It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal - mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9]. 3. Specific Trading Suggestions - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, and consider going long at low prices with a light position [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread [10]. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money options for RB01 [10]. 4. Important Information - In Inner Mongolia, from January to June 2025, coal mines with monthly raw - coal production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity had a total capacity of 34.6 million tons/year. As of September 16, 5 coal mines (with a total capacity of 19.3 million tons/year) were ordered to suspend production for 5 - 7 days due to safety hazards, and 4 have resumed normal production [10][11]. - On the 16th, there was news that coking and steel enterprises in Tangshan started environmental - protection production restrictions. Steel - mill blast furnaces were shut down by 40%, and coking enterprises extended the coking time by 30%. Currently, some enterprises have received the notice, and individual coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The overall operating rate of coking plants in Tangshan is about 75%. Steel mills have received the notice, and the specific implementation plan is yet to be determined [12]. Group 3: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the basis, price spreads, and profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts over different periods, including 01, 05, and 10 contracts, as well as regional price spreads and profits [17][18][19] etc.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, the focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline during the peak season, but concerns remain due to the real - estate market's slow recovery. Technically, both rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the Bollinger Bands' lower support, possibly opening a downward space [2]. - For the iron ore market, although the iron ore trend is the strongest among the black series due to potential growth in steel mill's molten iron production after the parade, the upward space is limited as the molten iron output is already high and terminal demand is not optimistic. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season. Technically, the 01 contract shows a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Focus**: The market is now focused on verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonal patterns suggest that demand should rise and inventory fall during the peak season, but the real - estate market's slow recovery may lead to lower - than - expected demand [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production increased, apparent demand slightly rose, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week. Total production of the five major varieties increased, total inventory rose, and apparent demand also increased. After the parade, production is expected to further increase [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, potentially opening a downward space [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short positions can be held [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - Rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous day and 23 yuan (-0.73%) from last week [3]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points from last week [3]. -全国建材钢厂螺纹钢产量 was 220.56 tons, up 5.91 tons (2.75%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. After the parade, there is potential for an increase in molten iron production, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract oscillates around the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily K - line, with the overall Bollinger Bands' opening narrowing. It has a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - 麦克粉（青岛港） was priced at 750 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan (-2.09%) from the previous day and the same from last week [4]. - 澳大利亚铁矿石发货量 was 1640.9 tons, down 78.1 tons (-4.54%) from last week [4]. - 北方六港到货量合计 was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons (12.82%) from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From August 25th to 31st, 2025, the total iron ore arrival at 45 ports in China was 2526.0 tons, a 132.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The arrival at the six northern ports was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons [6]. - As of the week ending August 31st, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 tons, a 241.0 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 tons, up 141.7 tons [7]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan area plan to stop production on September 2nd and resume on September 4th. The total approved production capacity of the affected mines is 790 tons, with an estimated impact on daily raw coal production of about 2.52 tons [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on September 1st after a 5 - day shutdown. The approved production capacity of this mine is 240 tons, and the total affected raw coal production during the shutdown was 4 tons [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in chemical coke and manganese ore prices are impacting the cost structure and market performance of manganese silicon production, with expectations of significant price volatility in the near future [1] Price Changes and Cost Analysis - Chemical coke prices increased by 100 yuan/ton, while port manganese ore prices saw a slight uptick, leading to higher immediate costs [1] - Estimated production costs as of July 25 are approximately 5710 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5800 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (with a loss of about 100 yuan/ton), and 6460 yuan/ton in Guangxi (with a loss of about 740 yuan/ton) [1] - Actual costs in production areas may be reduced by 100-200 yuan/ton due to adjustments in manganese ore ratios and tail gas power generation [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From July 19 to July 24, Tianjin Port received 451,924 tons of manganese ore, with a slight inventory increase of 989.7 tons, totaling 3,336,474 tons, which is below expectations [1] - Anticipated arrivals from July 25 to July 31 are 607,041 tons, with an estimated inventory increase of 100,000 to 200,000 tons based on typical outflow rates [1] - National daily production of silicon manganese as of July 25 is reported at 26,640 tons, with increases noted in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan [1] Market Pricing and Export Data - Hebei Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,850 yuan/ton for July, with the first round of inquiries at 5,600 yuan/ton and a purchase volume of 14,600 tons, an increase from June [1] - In June 2025, China exported 1,151.6 tons of silicon manganese alloy and imported 685.73 tons [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The black metal sector is experiencing upward pressure due to rising coking coal prices, while manganese silicon prices have shown mixed reactions, with significant inflows of capital observed [1] - The market is currently driven more by speculative factors rather than fundamental changes, with profit margins encouraging manufacturers and traders to hedge [1] - The overall market sentiment remains uncertain, with expectations of significant price fluctuations for manganese silicon on July 28, necessitating caution among investors [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly stronger. Supply disruptions persist, and the futures market is in a volatile adjustment phase. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the July production in Shanxi coal mines [1][5] - For coke, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly weaker. With the potential increase in coking coal production after the end of the safety production month, cost - side supply disruptions re - emerge. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the actual production of coking coal [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after safety inspections, causing concerns about supply. In the week of June 27, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons and 3.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4,207 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 374 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 701.2 vehicles [5] - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [5] Coke - **Supply**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons. After the fourth price cut on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton, and the production expansion enthusiasm was average [8] - **Demand**: In the week of June 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-26 炉料表现好于成材 昨⽇双焦延续⼩幅反弹态势，铁矿在700附近震荡，钢材相对偏弱。 ⿊⾊板块处于真空期，能交易的驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯淡季钢材现 货市场需求有承压趋势，供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，因此市场对后市库存 ⾛势偏悲观。整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震荡盘整阶段，关注钢材库存压 ⼒能否积累。 ⿊⾊：炉料表现好于成材 昨日双焦延续小幅反弹态势，铁矿在700附近震荡，钢材相对偏弱。 黑色板块处于真空期，能交易的驱动非常有限。产业方面淡季钢材现 货市场需求有承压趋势，供应端铁水高位回升，因此市场对后市库存 走势偏悲观。整体而言，盘面仍处于震荡盘整阶段，关注钢材库存压 力能否积累。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] - Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are all rated as "oscillation" [8][9][11][13][14][16][18] Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro factors have limited impact on the black sector currently. The demand for hot - rolled coils is recovering, while the demand for rebar is seasonally declining. The supply of molten iron is rising from a high level. The overall supply and demand are both strengthening month - on - month, and there is no inventory pressure for now. However, the market's outlook for the future remains pessimistic, worried about the weakening of plate demand, and the resilience of exports needs to be observed. Overall, the driving force is limited [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is judged that the ore price will oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline in production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses for coke enterprises. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material restocking is not high, and the upstream inventory level of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, with no obvious improvement in the inventory structure. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, the price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3] Alloys - The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. On the supply side, some factories have plans to resume production, and a factory in Inner Mongolia has a new production capacity launch plan in the second half of the month. Silicomanganese production is expected to continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the sentiment in the manganese ore market has improved. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate. Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and the price lacks upward momentum [3][6] Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand is continuing to weaken month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price is falling, and the production and sales are still weak. On the supply side, one production line is planned to be shut down for water - cooling maintenance due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the mid - stream inventory has continued to decline, with repeated mood swings. Attention should be paid to the price cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [6][14] Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the overseas war situation is undetermined. The rise in oil prices has driven the sentiment in the commodity market to improve, and the macro - environment is slightly positive. On the demand side, the demand for the five major steel products has recovered month - on - month this week, with a significant month - on - month increase in the demand for hot - rolled coils and a month - on - month decrease in the demand for rebar. On the supply side, molten iron production is oscillating at a high level, and steel production has increased slightly this week, mainly due to the increase in rebar and wire rod production. This week, the overall supply and demand have both strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is mainly suppressed by the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to whether domestic demand can continue to maintain inventory reduction. In the short term, steel prices are expected to oscillate [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotation rose by 0 - 2 yuan/ton yesterday, and port transactions decreased slightly. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Recently, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel enterprises on the demand side and their maintenance plans. The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The overall contradiction is not obvious. It is judged that the possibility of a significant decline is small, and the ore price is expected to oscillate [8] Scrap Steel - As the building material off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market's expectation of off - season demand is pessimistic and difficult to reverse in the short term, putting pressure on the futures price. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume increased slightly this week. Due to the low base in the same period last year, the overall arrival volume is slightly higher year - on - year. On the demand side, recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure and declining, while the decline of scrap steel is relatively small. Electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours, and the daily consumption has decreased slightly. The molten iron production of blast furnaces has increased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has also increased. In terms of inventory, although the arrival volume increased slightly, the daily consumption increased, and the factory inventory still decreased, with the absolute level at a high level in the same period. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, the price of finished products is under pressure, and electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9] Coke - The supply - demand pattern of coke is slightly loose, and the fourth round of price cuts is expected to start this week. The spot quotation is mainly weakly stable. On the supply side, some coke enterprises have reduced their production levels due to environmental protection, shipment, and loss pressure, and the overall coke production has decreased. However, in the off - season, downstream steel mills have sufficient raw material inventory and low enthusiasm for restocking, so the inventory reduction pressure on coke enterprises still exists. On the demand side, molten iron production is still at a relatively high level, but the terminal steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of a decline in molten iron production in the future. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the support of demand for the coke price. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is weakening, and the upward space for the coke price is limited. The coking coal price is under pressure, the cost support for coke is limited, and the downstream rigid demand tends to decline. The coke price still has downward pressure [9][11] Coking Coal - After the coking coal price dropped to a low level, the recent market trading situation has improved, but the release of downstream restocking demand is limited, and the intermediate links are still mainly in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, affected by factors such as environmental inspections and underground problems, the number of recently shut - down coal mines has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the contraction amplitude of the overall market supply is relatively limited. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and coke enterprises are expected to further reduce their production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, the raw material restocking intensity of coke enterprises is average, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the current supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the de - stocking pressure on mines still exists. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase. The market's supply - demand loose pattern has not been reversed, and the high upstream inventory suppresses the increase of the coking coal price [13] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, for some manganese ore types such as Gabon lumps and Australian lumps, the circulating resources are in short supply, and the arrival cost is inverted. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, the market inquiry activity has increased, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. The transaction price has increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. On the supply side, there are few operating factories in Guizhou. In Yunnan, the electricity cost will drop to about 0.37 yuan in July, and some factories have plans to resume production. In Guilin, Guangxi, the incremental electricity cost will be suspended at the end of the month, and some factories are expected to shut down for maintenance. A new alloy submerged arc furnace has been ignited in Inner Mongolia, with a daily production of about 200 tons. There are still situations of resuming production and adding new production capacity in the north. Constrained by the cost inversion, manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, the black market has entered the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong mentality of pressing prices. The silicomanganese pricing of HBIS Group in June is 5,650 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry price is 5,500 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose. However, factories are facing cost inversion and have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [16] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, the semi - coke market is stable. In Shenmu, the price of small - sized semi - coke is about 575 - 610 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. On the demand side, steel tenders have increased centralized procurement. The tender quantity of HBIS Group for ferrosilicon in June is 2,200 tons, and the tender price is 5,500 yuan/ton. Affected by the rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The magnesium metal market is driven by short - term market transactions, and the price is running strongly. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap tends to be filled. The upward space for the futures market is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to steel tender situations and production situations. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. - The outlook for each variety is as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [7] - Iron ore: Oscillation [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [8] - Coke: Oscillation [8] - Coking coal: Oscillation [11] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [14] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [15] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is affected by external disturbances and is in an off - season. The prices of each variety are oscillating. The overall demand is weak, and there is a downward pressure, but the upward driving force is also insufficient [1][2]. - After the positive factors of coking coal are digested, there is no new driving force for the time being. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply and demand are in a tight balance. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are in the off - season, and there is not much demand increase. The iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly, and the supply of coking coal and coke has not improved significantly, so the downward pressure is relatively large [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines start to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. The shipment volume is expected to increase seasonally and may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited [2][7]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production have slightly decreased, but it is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7]. - Inventory: Last week, the arrival volume decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, the arrival volume will remain high, and there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited [2][7]. - Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are seasonally weakening but not exceeding expectations. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that there is little possibility of a significant decline. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 2. Carbon Element - Supply: Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and the coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future [3]. - Demand: The coke production has declined from a high level. Under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses, the coke enterprises' production is expected to further decline [3]. - Inventory: During the price - cut cycle, the coke enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory is not high. The upstream coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved [3]. - Outlook: The contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream coking coal inventory reduction pressure remains. The short - term price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3. Alloys Silicomanganese - Cost: In the manganese ore market, some ore varieties have a shortage of circulating resources. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and the downstream procurement bargaining is more difficult [14]. - Supply: Some factories in Guizhou have few operating enterprises; some factories in Yunnan have plans to resume production; some factories in Guangxi are expected to shut down for maintenance; there are still situations of resuming production and new production capacity in the north. The production is expected to increase [14]. - Demand: The black market is in the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of pressing prices. The steel tender price is around 5600 yuan/ton, in line with market expectations [14]. - Outlook: The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the manganese ore market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The semi - coke market is stable [15]. - Supply: The manufacturers' profits are not good, the overall supply level is still at a low position, and the manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices [15]. - Demand: Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory. The metal magnesium market demand is weak, and the price is rising weakly [15]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, but individual manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production. The supply - demand gap tends to be filled, and the cost may still have a drag. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [15]. 4. Glass - Demand: The demand in the off - season is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weakening month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price has declined, and the production and sales are still weak [6]. - Supply: Recently, one production line is planned to be shut down for cold repair due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are still five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists [6]. - Inventory: The upstream inventory is slightly reduced, and the mid - stream inventory continues to decline, with repeated mood swings [6]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the price - cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. 5. Soda Ash - Supply: The pattern of oversupply has not changed, the maintenance is gradually resuming, and the supply pressure still exists [6]. - Demand: The heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the daily melting of float glass is expected to increase, but the daily melting growth of photovoltaic glass may not be sustainable [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will still decline [6].