1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and steel consumption may gradually recover. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the price of iron ore will still run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [10]. - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm [13][15]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term. For soda ash, the industry supply is shrinking, the downstream demand is stable, but the price increase is limited by high inventory and weak demand. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,493 tons, a decrease of 5,119 tons from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.868036 million lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3255 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.400%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,543 tons, a decrease of 1,485 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.311464 million lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall; the demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and it was difficult to absorb the production, resulting in an inverse - seasonal inventory build - up. In general, the steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expected recovery of manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.44% (+11.00), and the position changed by - 29,119 lots to 501,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 924,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.44 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.13%. The Simandou Iron Ore Project was officially put into operation on November 11 [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume in the latest period continued to decline month - on - month. In the shipment end, the shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil continued to fall. Among the major mines, Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output in the latest period according to the Steel Union's statistics was 234,220 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons month - on - month. The environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, contributing a large part of the maintenance volume. The profitability rate of steel mills reached a new low this year, with 60% of steel mills below the break - even point, and some steel mills increased maintenance. In the inventory end, the port inventory increased at a faster pace, and the steel mill inventory increased month - on - month. The terminal data was weak. Fundamentally, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the pig iron output continued to decline, the demand for iron ore continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained. Macroscopically, the China - US summit in October and the Fed's interest rate meeting have both taken place. Overall, during the macro - vacuum period, the futures price trend is likely to follow the real - world logic. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the short - term price will still run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 12, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5762 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.04% at 5590 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price. On the daily - line level, the manganese silicon futures price was still in the oscillation range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, with no obvious directional trend. Currently, it is approaching the downward trend line since February this year. Attention should be paid to the support level around 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, the futures price was in the oscillation range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support level around 5400 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In October, the market was affected by many macro - events. In November, the macro - environment entered a relatively quiet period, and the pricing of the black - metal sector returned to fundamentals. This week, the pig iron output continued to decline, and the profitability rate of steel mills fell below 40%. The steel demand remained weak, especially the demand for plates declined significantly and started to build inventory again. Affected by multiple factors, the commodity sentiment that just showed signs of warming cooled down again. The market is trying to conduct "negative feedback" trading in the black - metal sector, but this is considered a temporary shock and emotional release, with limited downward space. For the future of the black - metal sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to buy for a rebound rather than shorting. The height after the rebound depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,588 lots to 412,146 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 155 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 245 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Yesterday, the price of industrial silicon declined during the day and then rebounded in the afternoon. In the short term, the price fluctuated. In October, the production of industrial silicon continued to increase. Although the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased during the dry season, the production in the northwest increased, offsetting the production decline caused by the dry season. It is expected that the production in the southwest will continue to decline in November. If the operating rate in the northwest stabilizes, the supply pressure may be relieved. In terms of demand, the production plan of polysilicon in November decreased, and some leading enterprises started maintenance, mainly in the southwest. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon weakened. The production of organosilicon is expected to be stable. The absolute value of the visible inventory is still high, but the marginal change is limited, and the marginal pressure on the price is small. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the cost support such as electricity and coal - coke is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 53,460 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.95% (+1530). The weighted contract position changed by +532 lots to 234,715 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, in November, some polysilicon production capacities started maintenance, and the production plan decreased to 120,000 tons, mainly in the southwest. The production in the last two months is expected to decline. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly, and the production is expected to decrease month - on - month compared with October. In the future, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price of second - and third - tier silicon wafer enterprises has loosened, which has a negative impact on the upstream price, especially when there is no actual progress in the platform company and stockpiling. The futures price has adjusted periodically. Future attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm. Currently, both long and short news about stockpiling and the platform company can easily affect the futures price, causing rapid declines or increases. Attention should be paid to distinguishing the authenticity and using position control to manage risks [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (-16). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, a decrease of 2.654 million cases (-4.03%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 19,034 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 625 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, the float glass market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals. As the optimistic sentiment brought by the production line shutdown in Shahe is gradually digested by the market, downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the production - sales ratio in some areas has slowed down. Although the supply in some regions has shrunk due to environmental protection policies, the impact on the overall supply - demand structure is limited. At the same time, the cost support for the price is continuously weakening, and the production profit of enterprises is generally under pressure. The market sentiment is generally pessimistic. In general, it is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (-11). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1164 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (4.03%) from the previous week, including 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 13,200 tons, and 814,600 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 1000 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 2689 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 19,653 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, some soda ash enterprises are reducing production, and Chongqing Heyou Industrial plans to shut down soon. The overall industry supply is shrinking. The downstream demand is stable, but the market transactions are mainly for low - price goods. The order - receiving situation of soda ash manufacturers is generally good. Affected by the shortage of some light soda ash in the Middle East, the price of new orders has increased. However, due to the high inventory and weak demand, the price increase space is still limited. It is expected that the market will be influenced by both long and short factors in the short term, and the price may continue to fluctuate [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The steel mills are suffering losses and reducing production, and the futures market is experiencing a negative feedback loop [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Plate Performance Comparison - Last week, the black plate declined collectively, with iron ore leading the decline, dropping about 5% week-on-week. The strength relationship among varieties was coke > coking coal > hot-rolled coil > rebar > iron ore [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The performance of different futures was differentiated, with black and energy-chemical futures being relatively weak [8] 03 Spot Prices - Coking coal and coke prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [15] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills decreased significantly, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [16] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and the inventory depletion slowed down [18] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals increased significantly month-on-month, and port inventories rebounded [27] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production decreased slightly, and inventories shifted downstream [33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and inventories were depleted again [35] 09 Variety Spreads - The futures profit continued to decline, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar remained stable [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - On November 3, the Ministry of Finance established a new Debt Management Department. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the United States. The "China's Actions for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" white paper was released. Various economic data such as trade, employment, and reserves were announced, and OPEC+ made production adjustment decisions [42]

1. Report Core View - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with a slightly stronger morning and a slight decline in the afternoon. Spot trading volume improved compared to yesterday. Last week's data showed that steel mills continued to cut production, but hot metal output remained high. Steel demand recovered due to temperature drops after the holiday, leading to an increase in the apparent demand of the five major steel products. However, hot-rolled coil production was high, and overall inventory continued to accumulate, though at a slower pace, while rebar inventory started to decline. Since after May Day, the black metal sector has been falling, with steel and iron ore leading the decline. The rising price of thermal coal due to cooler weather limited the decline of coking coal. The sector is under pressure from news and fundamentals, but low steel price valuations, profit contractions, and increased environmental protection efforts provide some support. The Fourth Plenary Session this week and the "15th Five-Year Plan" content may also affect market fluctuations. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9]. - The single - side trading of steel products is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage and the long position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. It is advisable to wait and see for options [10][11]. 2. Summary by Directory Market Information Rebar - **Futures**: For RB05, the price was 3104 yuan/ton today, up 3 yuan from yesterday; RB10 was 3144 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; RB01 was 3047 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The 05 - contract rebar's on - disk profit was - 143 yuan, up 18 yuan; the 10 - contract was - 116 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 01 - contract was - 167 yuan, up 15 yuan [3]. - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cheapest deliverable was 3170 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of 66 yuan, a 10 - contract basis of 26 yuan, and a 01 - contract basis of 123 yuan. Regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and spot profits in different regions showed various changes, such as a 3 - yuan increase in Tangshan rebar profit and a 100 - yuan decrease in Shandong rebar profit [3]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures**: HC05 was 3236 yuan/ton today, up 2 yuan; HC10 was 3267 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; HC01 was 3219 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil's on - disk profit was - 11 yuan, up 17 yuan; the 10 - contract was 7 yuan, up 8 yuan; the 01 - contract was 5 yuan, up 17 yuan [3]. - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cheapest deliverable was 3240 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of 4 yuan, a 10 - contract basis of - 27 yuan, and a 01 - contract basis of 21 yuan. Regional price differences were mostly stable, and spot profits in different regions also had some changes, like a 3 - yuan increase in Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit [3]. Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan, Beijing Jingye was 3100 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The black metal sector is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend on the single - side. It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage and the long position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, and wait and see for options. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9][10][11]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, on - disk profits, cash profits, and cost differences, including the price trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the basis of different contracts in Shanghai, the spreads between different contracts, the on - disk and cash profits of different products in different regions, and the cost differences of electric furnaces [23][25][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend. Steel mills continued to cut production, and steel demand improved slightly due to temperature drops. However, the high production of hot - rolled coils led to inventory accumulation, while rebar started to reduce inventory. The black metal sector was under pressure due to news and fundamentals, but steel prices had low valuations, and there was still some support at the bottom. The market should continue to monitor coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3101 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 3149 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and RB01 at 3045 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 was - 161 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 117 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 182 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, Shandong Shiheng, and Tangshan Tanggang remained stable or changed slightly. The profit of rebar in different regions varied, with Tangshan rebar profit increasing by 12 yuan/ton to - 333 yuan/ton, while Shandong rebar profit decreased by 91 yuan/ton to - 580 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3234 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), HC10 at 3265 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and HC01 at 3215 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 1 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 12 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coils changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions also changed, with East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 30 yuan/ton to - 196 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan, Beijing Jingye was 3100 yuan (up 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan (up 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: The market will maintain a bottom - volatile trend [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Important Information**: - From January to September, the housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of newly - built commercial housing also decreased [10]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349 million tons (down 4.6% year - on - year), pig iron output was 6605 million tons (down 2.4% year - on - year), and steel output was 12421 million tons (up 5.1% year - on - year) [11][13]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provided multiple charts, including those showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [17][21][27].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. Short - term hot metal production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, the iron ore price has support. It is necessary to continue observing the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [5]. - The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, in the future, the black sector may gradually become cost - effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in supply - demand fundamentals and policies [12][14]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to remain in a volatile range, with limited price fluctuations [17][19]. Group 3: Summary of Each Category Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar主力 contract in the afternoon was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.409%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 21,922 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 109,368 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin increased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: Rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, overall demand is weak, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力 contract was 3380 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.177%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 30,384 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. The overall demand is weak, although it has some resilience [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The closing price of the iron ore主力 contract (I2601) was 808.50 yuan/ton, up 0.12% (+1.00). The open interest decreased by 12,497 lots to 562,000 lots. The weighted open interest was 876,700 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.88% [4]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, near - end arrivals increased, hot metal production increased, and steel mill profitability decreased. Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill imports increased. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Market Information**: After the release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon futures declined. The manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) closed down 1.58% at 5870 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) closed down 1.53% at 5648 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the trend of the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8950 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (-355). The weighted open interest decreased by 34,046 lots to 519,726 lots. In the现货 market, the price of 553 in East China increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 also increased by 100 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the price has an upward space, it needs fundamental improvement. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (-1710). The weighted open interest increased by 6275 lots to 279,396 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material in the现货 market remained unchanged [13]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policies. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [14]. Glass - **Market Information**: The glass主力 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.40% (-17). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 675,000 cases (-1.10%) [16]. - **Strategy View**: Terminal demand is weak, supply is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The soda ash主力 contract closed at 1293 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.90% (-25). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 41,900 tons (-1.10%) [18]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. Production is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with potential for price increases if downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October. The black - metal sector is supported by the approaching peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling [4]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term volatility adjustment is expected, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, despite potential recovery in domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [13]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade at the bottom, with silicon iron and manganese silicon both showing bottom - oscillating trends [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a 12.3% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a 2.5% increase; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a 1.6% decrease; and color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a 3.2% decrease. As of September 18, the total volume of overhauled blast furnaces in 16 sample steel mills in Shanxi was 2010m³, with an overhaul volume ratio of 4.7%, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 12.3% higher than the same period last year [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar was 3240 yuan (- 20), and in Beijing, it was 3170 yuan (- 20). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3420 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, it was 3340 yuan (-) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile at night. Iron - water production increased slightly this week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. Due to losses, EAF production decreased, and long - process production lines also switched production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other varieties continued to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the reduction in rebar production led to inventory depletion, while other varieties accumulated inventory. Steel demand is expected to recover slightly next week, and the black - metal sector is supported by the peak season and pre - holiday stockpiling [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel prices will be volatile and bullish. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options on RB01 [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a 44,000 - ton increase. The raw - coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase, and the clean - coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from last week [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Coking coal and coke were volatile at night. The coking coal spot market sentiment is good, with prices rising and auction flow rates decreasing. Downstream enterprises will stockpile raw materials before the National Day, supporting spot prices. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term volatility adjustment, mid - term buying on dips. Arbitrage: Enter the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal on dips. Options: Hold. Futures - cash: Hold [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale. On September 18, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore was narrowly volatile at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. Iron - ore prices may face pressure at high levels [13]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not fully provided in the report, but the analyst's information is given [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 18th, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.02%) at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree. Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese - ore shipping price to China [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Silicon - iron spot prices were stable on the 18th. Supply rumors were false, and supply remained high. Demand was supported by steel production. Manganese - silicon spot prices were stable, with alloy - factory production increasing slightly. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, but cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore [16]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating. Arbitrage: Hold. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations on rallies [17][19].

Group 1: Market Information 1. Futures Prices - For rebar futures, RB05 was at 3237 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 3074 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and RB01 at 3168 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - For hot - rolled coil futures, HC05 was at 3388 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from yesterday), HC10 at 3424 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), and HC01 at 3390 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Rebar spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian was 3230 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng was 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc [3]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices: Tianjin Hegang was 3340 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Lecong Rigang was 3400 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), etc [3]. 3. Price Spreads - Rebar: The spread between Shanghai and Beijing was 70 yuan/ton (unchanged), between Shanghai and Jinan was - 50 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), etc [3]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spread between Shanghai and Tianjin was 20 yuan/ton (unchanged), between Shanghai and Lecong was 20 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [3]. 4. Profits - Rebar: 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 was - 85 yuan (up 5 yuan from yesterday), 10 - contract was - 233 yuan (up 9 yuan), and 01 - contract was - 132 yuan (up 1 yuan) [3]. - Hot - rolled coil: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 was 77 yuan (down 7 yuan from yesterday), 10 - contract was 117 yuan (down 5 yuan), and 01 - contract was 90 yuan (down 13 yuan) [3]. Group 2: Market Judgement 1. Related Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye was 3190 yuan (- 10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3430 yuan (+ 20), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan (-) [8]. 2. Trading Strategy - The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with overall weak spot trading volume, weaker than yesterday [9]. - This week, molten iron production increased slightly, less than expected. National building - material production decreased as rebar production was cut due to large losses, while hot - rolled coil production still increased [9]. - Inventories continued to accumulate, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Downstream demand improved as the temperature dropped. Hangzhou's inventory was depleted faster, and rebar warehouse receipts were quickly cancelled [9]. - With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve. Considering pre - National - Day restocking, the black - metal sector has support. If downstream demand in October recovers more than expected, steel prices may rise further. The Fed's interest - rate cut schedule and the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect the market [9]. - It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal - mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9]. 3. Specific Trading Suggestions - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, and consider going long at low prices with a light position [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread [10]. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money options for RB01 [10]. 4. Important Information - In Inner Mongolia, from January to June 2025, coal mines with monthly raw - coal production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity had a total capacity of 34.6 million tons/year. As of September 16, 5 coal mines (with a total capacity of 19.3 million tons/year) were ordered to suspend production for 5 - 7 days due to safety hazards, and 4 have resumed normal production [10][11]. - On the 16th, there was news that coking and steel enterprises in Tangshan started environmental - protection production restrictions. Steel - mill blast furnaces were shut down by 40%, and coking enterprises extended the coking time by 30%. Currently, some enterprises have received the notice, and individual coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The overall operating rate of coking plants in Tangshan is about 75%. Steel mills have received the notice, and the specific implementation plan is yet to be determined [12]. Group 3: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the basis, price spreads, and profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts over different periods, including 01, 05, and 10 contracts, as well as regional price spreads and profits [17][18][19] etc.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, the focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline during the peak season, but concerns remain due to the real - estate market's slow recovery. Technically, both rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the Bollinger Bands' lower support, possibly opening a downward space [2]. - For the iron ore market, although the iron ore trend is the strongest among the black series due to potential growth in steel mill's molten iron production after the parade, the upward space is limited as the molten iron output is already high and terminal demand is not optimistic. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season. Technically, the 01 contract shows a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Focus**: The market is now focused on verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonal patterns suggest that demand should rise and inventory fall during the peak season, but the real - estate market's slow recovery may lead to lower - than - expected demand [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production increased, apparent demand slightly rose, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week. Total production of the five major varieties increased, total inventory rose, and apparent demand also increased. After the parade, production is expected to further increase [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, potentially opening a downward space [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short positions can be held [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - Rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous day and 23 yuan (-0.73%) from last week [3]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points from last week [3]. -全国建材钢厂螺纹钢产量 was 220.56 tons, up 5.91 tons (2.75%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. After the parade, there is potential for an increase in molten iron production, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract oscillates around the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily K - line, with the overall Bollinger Bands' opening narrowing. It has a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - 麦克粉（青岛港） was priced at 750 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan (-2.09%) from the previous day and the same from last week [4]. - 澳大利亚铁矿石发货量 was 1640.9 tons, down 78.1 tons (-4.54%) from last week [4]. - 北方六港到货量合计 was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons (12.82%) from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From August 25th to 31st, 2025, the total iron ore arrival at 45 ports in China was 2526.0 tons, a 132.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The arrival at the six northern ports was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons [6]. - As of the week ending August 31st, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 tons, a 241.0 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 tons, up 141.7 tons [7]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan area plan to stop production on September 2nd and resume on September 4th. The total approved production capacity of the affected mines is 790 tons, with an estimated impact on daily raw coal production of about 2.52 tons [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on September 1st after a 5 - day shutdown. The approved production capacity of this mine is 240 tons, and the total affected raw coal production during the shutdown was 4 tons [8].