Group 1: Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3134 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 4 CNY/ton, representing a 0.13% rise, and an increase in open interest by 30,000 contracts [3][11] - The spot prices remained stable, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price at 2950 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price at 3240 CNY/ton, while the national construction material transaction volume was 93,200 tons [3][11] - Steel mills' supply has decreased, which may alleviate market pressure, but the market sentiment remains cautious with no strong driving factors [3][11] Group 2: Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 789 CNY/ton, down by 7.5 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.9%, with a trading volume of 300,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 16,000 contracts [4][12] - Supply from Australia and Brazil has increased, while shipments from other countries have slightly decreased, leading to high global shipping volumes [4][12] - Steel mills are undergoing annual inspections, and port inventories continue to rise, indicating stable fundamentals with a focus on replenishment demand in the short term [4][12] Group 3: Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1119.5 CNY/ton, increasing by 31.5 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.9%, with a decrease in open interest by 8,015 contracts [5][13] - In the spot market, the main coking coal price in Shanxi's Lüliang region was adjusted down by 80 CNY to 1403 CNY/ton, while other coal prices showed mixed trends [5][13] - The market sentiment is weak due to increased safety inspections and cautious demand from downstream coke enterprises, leading to expectations of wide fluctuations in the coking coal market [5][13] Group 4: Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1715 CNY/ton, with an increase of 34.5 CNY/ton, representing a 2.05% rise, and an increase in open interest by 198 contracts [6][14] - The spot market for coke prices remained stable, with the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at 1450 CNY/ton [6][14] - The fourth round of price reductions in the coke market has begun, with some enterprises accelerating sales to reduce inventory, while demand from steel mills remains stable [6][14] Group 5: Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price closed at 5942 CNY/ton, with a 1.09% increase and an increase in open interest by 14,109 contracts to 278,300 contracts [7][16] - The market price for manganese silicon ranged from 5570 to 5780 CNY/ton, with increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions [7][16] - The weekly production of manganese silicon has increased, supported by new capacity and production shifts, while inventory levels have reached new highs [7][16] Group 6: Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures price closed at 5750 CNY/ton, with a 1.16% increase and a decrease in open interest by 544 contracts to 230,600 contracts [8][17] - The price range for silicon iron across regions was approximately 5270 to 5320 CNY/ton, with price increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [8][17] - Recent production adjustments have led to a slight decrease in silicon iron output, while downstream steel mills are engaging in replenishment activities ahead of the holiday [8][17]

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3125 CNY/ton, up 41 CNY/ton or 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest by 28,800 contracts [10] - Spot prices increased, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price rising by 10 CNY/ton to 2950 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price up by 40 CNY/ton to 3220 CNY/ton; national construction material transaction volume reached 102,200 tons [10] - National rebar production increased by 29,000 tons week-on-week to 1.8168 million tons, down 370,500 tons year-on-year; social inventory decreased by 257,000 tons to 3.13 million tons, up 302,600 tons year-on-year [10] - Rebar inventory has decreased for ten consecutive weeks, alleviating structural contradictions, providing strong support for price trends [10] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 777.5 CNY/ton, up 9.5 CNY/ton or 1.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 320,000 contracts and an increase in open interest by 29,000 contracts [11] - Supply from Australia and Brazil has increased, while shipments from Canada and Peru have decreased; iron water production fell by 26,500 tons to 2.2655 million tons [11] - The inventory at 47 ports increased by 1.1406 million tons to 162.2553 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons to 87.24 million tons [11] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1126.5 CNY/ton, up 64.5 CNY/ton or 6.07%, with an increase in open interest by 4,320 contracts [12] - Spot prices for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi increased by 100 CNY to 1600 CNY/ton; prices for Mongolian coal also rose [12] - Supply remains tight due to safety production considerations, while demand is primarily driven by essential purchases [12] Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1603.5 CNY/ton, up 73 CNY/ton or 4.77%, with a decrease in open interest by 3,916 contracts [13] - Spot prices for metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port increased by 50 CNY to 1480 CNY/ton [13] - Environmental policies have led to production limits, causing a slight decline in production rates [13] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures contract closed at 5780 CNY/ton, up 0.38%, with an increase in open interest by 5,436 contracts [14] - The market price for silicon manganese ranges from 5500 to 5700 CNY/ton, with slight increases in certain regions [14] - Supply is expected to increase with new production capacity coming online, while demand for manganese in steel production has shown a decline [14] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5592 CNY/ton, up 1.23%, with an increase in open interest by 2,459 contracts [15] - Prices for silicon iron range from 5170 to 5250 CNY/ton, with increases noted in certain regions [15] - The number of silicon iron production halts is increasing, leading to a gradual decrease in supply, while inventory levels remain high [15]

Group 1: Rebar Steel - The rebar futures market showed a slight upward trend, with the 2605 contract closing at 3074 CNY/ton, an increase of 14 CNY/ton or 0.46% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 20,600 contracts [2][10] - The spot prices remained stable with slight increases, while transaction volumes decreased, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price steady at 2940 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price rising by 10 CNY/ton to 3190 CNY/ton, and national construction material transaction volume at 101,200 tons [2][10] - From January to November, fixed asset investment growth declined by 2.6% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment down by 1.1%, manufacturing investment up by 1.9%, and real estate development investment down by 15.9% [2][10] - China's crude steel production from January to November was 89.167 million tons, down 4.0% year-on-year, while pig iron production was 77.405 million tons, down 2.3%, and steel production was 133.277 million tons, up 4.0% [2][10] - Overall, investment data continues to weaken, with crude steel and pig iron production at low levels, indicating a weak supply-demand situation in the steel market, and short-term expectations for rebar futures to remain in a narrow range [2][10] Group 2: Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market saw a decline, with the main contract closing at 753 CNY/ton, down 7.5 CNY/ton or 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 370,000 contracts and an increase in open interest by 4,000 contracts [3][11] - Port spot prices for mainstream iron ore varieties showed a decrease, with Qingdao Port PB powder down 4 CNY and super special powder down 6 CNY [3][11] - According to Mysteel data, Australian shipments reached 20.526 million tons, an increase of 852,000 tons month-on-month, with shipments to China at 17.021 million tons, up 1.139 million tons [3][11] - Brazilian shipments were 9.129 million tons, an increase of 2.25 million tons month-on-month, while other countries saw a decrease in shipments due to reduced exports from Canada and Peru [3][11] - On the demand side, iron water production decreased to 2.292 million tons month-on-month, and iron ore inventories at 47 ports continued to accumulate, while steel mill inventories decreased [3][11] - Short-term expectations for iron ore prices indicate a volatile trend [3][11] Group 3: Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market experienced an increase, with the 2605 contract closing at 1061 CNY/ton, up 44.5 CNY/ton or 4.38%, while open interest decreased by 2,394 contracts [4][12] - In the spot market, the main coking coal price in Shanxi's Linfen area decreased by 71 CNY to 1014 CNY/ton, while prices for Mongolian coal increased by 10 CNY [4][12] - On the supply side, mines are prioritizing safety production, and after a decline in coke prices, downstream profits have been compressed, leading to weak acceptance of high-priced coal varieties [4][12] - The demand side is affected by seasonal downturns, with steel mills facing poor profitability and reduced willingness to purchase high-priced coal, leading to a focus on just-in-time procurement [4][12] - Short-term expectations for coking coal futures indicate a wide range of fluctuations [4][12] Group 4: Coking Coke - The coking coke futures market saw an increase, with the 2601 contract closing at 1503.5 CNY/ton, up 28.5 CNY/ton or 1.93%, while open interest decreased by 2,515 contracts [5][13] - In the spot market, the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 CNY to 1430 CNY/ton [5][13] - The supply side is impacted by seasonal downturns, with steel mills facing poor profitability and executing second-round price reductions for coke, leading to reduced willingness to purchase high-priced coal [5][13] - On the demand side, steel mills are maintaining weak just-in-time procurement due to declining iron water production and overall weak demand [5][13] - Short-term expectations for coking coke futures indicate a wide range of fluctuations [5][13] Group 5: Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 5758 CNY/ton, up 0.81%, while open interest decreased by 7,429 contracts to 273,700 contracts [6][14] - Prices in various regions ranged from 5490 to 5700 CNY/ton, with increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [6][14] - The black metal sector showed a strong overall trend, with coking coal prices rising over 3%, supporting manganese silicon prices [6][14] - On the demand side, there is some support during the steel bidding period, but demand for manganese in finished steel has declined for two consecutive weeks, with a weekly drop exceeding 3% [6][14] - Inventory levels among 63 manganese silicon sample enterprises reached a record high of 382,000 tons, an increase of nearly 180,000 tons year-on-year [6][14] - Overall, while market sentiment is boosted, the fundamental lack of sustained upward drivers suggests a continued volatile trend for manganese silicon [6][14] Group 6: Silicon Iron - Silicon iron futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 5518 CNY/ton, up 1.25%, while open interest increased by 244 contracts to 257,200 contracts [7][15] - Prices in various regions ranged from 5150 to 5220 CNY/ton, with increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [7][15] - The black metal sector showed a strong overall trend, with coking coal prices rising over 3%, supporting silicon iron prices [7][15] - On the supply side, production cuts are gradually increasing, with a specific enterprise in Qinghai planning to shut down two silicon iron furnaces, affecting daily production by 70-80 tons [7][15] - Silicon iron production is gradually declining due to ongoing losses, with a weekly production of 106,300 tons, down 2.3% week-on-week [7][15] - Inventory levels among 60 silicon iron sample enterprises remain high, with a total of approximately 77,800 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons week-on-week [7][15] - Overall, while sentiment is boosted and supply reductions provide some support for prices, attention should be paid to future production cuts, with short-term expectations indicating a stable and volatile trend [7][15]

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Black: Export Policy Changes, Steel Prices Fluctuate Weakly" and is dated December 15, 2025 [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The black sector weakened collectively last week, with coking coal leading the decline, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The implementation of export license management for some steel products may affect steel exports in 2026 [5] 4. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector weakened collectively last week, with coking coal leading the decline, and the strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > hot - rolled coil > rebar > coke > coking coal [5][7] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The futures market was mainly in a downward trend, and non - ferrous metals were relatively strong [9] 03 Spot Price - The entire sector declined, and coking coal had the largest decline [16] 04 Profit and Valuation - The immediate profit improved, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [17] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel supply and demand decreased last week, and the inventory was smoothly destocked [5][6][19] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The port iron ore inventory continued to increase last week, and based on the previous shipping data, the future arrivals will still be at a high level. The iron ore supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [6][28] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The domestic raw coal production declined at a low level, but the customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the market expectation weakened. The coking coal inventory gradually accumulated in upstream mines [6][31] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production fluctuated at a low level, and the inventory of coking plants rebounded [33] 09 Variety Spread - The profit on the futures market improved, and the ratio of rebar to coke widened [35] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic work. The implementation of export license management for some steel products will start on January 1, 2026. The social financing scale increased in the first 11 months, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry was officially launched [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may see a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For the black sector, compared to short - selling, finding positions to go long for a rebound may be more cost - effective. The height of the rebound depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies. The macro factor is more important than the weak fundamentals that have been priced in [9]. - In the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and the steel consumption end still has the basis for gradual recovery [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 86,672 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.655469 million lots, down 74,279 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 120,567 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.217174 million lots, down 46,346 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, unable to effectively absorb production, and inventory continues to increase counter - seasonally [2]. - Affected by the Fed's hawkish remarks, market sentiment declined, and the consumption market cooled down in the short term. But in the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and steel consumption is expected to gradually recover [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 792.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+3.50), and the open interest changed by - 10,108 lots to 471,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 908,000 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.55 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. Strategy View - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output was 236,880 tons, up 2,660 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly [5]. - High inventory still suppresses the price, but the short - term increase in pig iron output supports the iron ore demand. In the macro - vacuum period, the market is more likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 18, affected by the weakening external market sentiment, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell 1.93% to close at 5680 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) fell 1.65% to close at 5474 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy View - In the past week, the black sector continued to decline and fluctuate. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectations are expected to have a positive impact on sentiment and prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point [8]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack a major contradiction. If the commodity sentiment recovers and the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8980 yuan/ton, down 1.10% (-100). The weighted open - interest changed by - 451 lots to 400,728 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis was 370 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - side contraction trend is emerging. The demand side shows a decline in polysilicon production and a possible reduction in industrial silicon procurement demand due to the planned production cuts in the organic silicon industry. Industrial silicon may face a situation of "both supply and demand being weak". The cost side provides support, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-445). The weighted open - interest changed by +2239 lots to 236,480 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, and the basis was 90 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy View: Polysilicon is still caught between reality and expectations. The production in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is still highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.17% (-12). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 0.18%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5546 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 32,223 lots [17]. - Strategy View: The supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The enterprise inventory is high, and the spot price is under pressure. Although there is cost support and positive policy expectations, the current supply - demand imbalance and the decline in the futures market intensify the downward pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1214 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.38% (-17). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 858 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 16,055 lots [19]. - Strategy View: The soda ash industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is mediocre. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Black: Raw Materials Alternately Decline, Steel Relatively Resilient [1] - **Report Date**: November 17, 2025 [1] - **Reporting Company**: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The raw materials decline alternately while steel shows relative resilience [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Black Sector Performance - Last week, the black sector showed a divergent trend. Steel and iron ore prices remained stable, while coking coal and coke prices dropped significantly. The strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil > coke > coking coal [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Comparison - The futures market showed a differentiated trend, with non-ferrous metals performing strongly [6]. 3.3 Spot Prices - Rebar and iron ore prices increased, while scrap steel prices decreased slightly [8]. 3.4 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [10]. 3.5 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and inventory was slowly depleted [12]. 3.6 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at ports were high, leading to continuous increases in port inventory. Although pig iron production rebounded last week, it is expected to decline again in the future, and the supply-demand pattern of iron ore will gradually become looser [3][21]. 3.7 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production increased slightly last week, and inventory accumulated. The profitability of coking plants was poor, and coke production dropped to a low level, with coke inventory being depleted again [3]. 3.8 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production continued to decline, and inventory was depleted again [26]. 3.9 Variety Spreads - The mill's paper profit rebounded from the bottom, and the rebar-coke price ratio widened [28]. 3.10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple cities in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather. China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves changed in October. The vice premier will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone and attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project. The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry for one year. Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are progressing, with an estimated reduction of about 2 million tons of construction steel output, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total output in 2025. Mysteel predicts that the total output of the Simandou project in 2026 will reach 20 million tons. Most provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have suspended automobile replacement subsidies or scrapping and renewal subsidies. The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks in hot - rolled coils. Future price trends will depend on the production cut rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption side may gradually recover. In the short term, due to cost factors, the price of finished products will continue to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [2] - The iron ore supply shows a downward trend in overseas shipments, while the demand has a marginal increase in iron ore due to the rebound of daily hot - metal production. High inventory still suppresses prices, and in the short - term, the ore price will operate within the range of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] - The black sector has continued to decline in the past week, but as the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on emotions and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price. For the black sector, the cost - performance of seeking positions for rebound is relatively high [9] - The industrial silicon may present a pattern of "weak supply and demand". The cost provides a bottom - support, and in the short - term, it will be weak and volatile. The follow - up development of the "anti - involution" in the downstream industry needs to be concerned [13] - The polysilicon market is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - reduction expectation has been realized, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The market is still in a fierce game, and the follow - up progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain need to be concerned [16] - The current float glass market has limited positive factors, and the downstream support is insufficient. High inventory suppresses prices, the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient, and the upward space is restricted [19] - The current soda ash industry has a relatively high supply, and the downstream demand is average. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and in the short - term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3053 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 90327 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.837133 million lots, a decrease of 20210 lots. In the spot market, the rebar price in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, with no change, and in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.061%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 114083 tons, an increase of 6477 tons. The main contract position was 1.287025 million lots, a decrease of 15482 lots. In the spot market, the hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change, and in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar supply and demand both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, with a neutral overall performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils was weak, unable to absorb the production, and the inventory showed an inverse - seasonal accumulation [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) on Friday was 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00% (0.00). The position changed by - 13747 lots to 480400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 900800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.07%. The Ximengdu Iron Ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to increase production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline in the latest period. In the shipping end, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to fall, with Vale and Rio Tinto contributing to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily hot - metal production in the latest period was 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons month - on - month. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with the utilization rate of some blast furnaces increasing. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses prices, and the short - term rebound of hot - metal production supports the iron ore demand marginally. In the short - term, the ore price will operate within the range, and the lower limit is 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5748 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 122 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 0.29% at 5490 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price [7] - Last week, the manganese silicon price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton or - 0.14%. On the daily - line level, the price was still in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation continued to narrow. The ferrosilicon price fluctuated and declined slightly last week, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or - 1.01%. On the daily - line level, it was still in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The black sector continued to decline in the past week. As the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on emotions and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price. For the black sector, the cost - performance of seeking positions for rebound is relatively high. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information (Industrial Silicon) - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) on Friday was 9020 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15027 lots to 403388 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 330 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Strategy Viewpoints (Industrial Silicon) - On Friday, the industrial silicon price fluctuated downwards. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate. The supply has shown a contraction trend, and the demand side may reduce the procurement demand for industrial silicon. It may present a pattern of "weak supply and demand". The cost provides a bottom - support, and in the short - term, it will be weak and volatile. The follow - up development of the "anti - involution" in the downstream industry needs to be concerned [13][14] Market Information (Polysilicon) - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2601) on Friday was 54045 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.28% (- 150). The weighted contract position changed by + 3947 lots to 241059 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1745 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Strategy Viewpoints (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon market is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - reduction expectation has been realized, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The market is in a fierce game, and the follow - up progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain need to be concerned [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information (Glass) - The glass main contract closed at 1032 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.27% (- 24). The price of large plates in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, an increase of 0.18% (111000 boxes). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased 61127 lots of long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 78307 lots of short positions [18] Strategy Viewpoints (Glass) - The current float glass market has limited positive factors, and the downstream support is insufficient. High inventory suppresses prices, the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient, and the upward space is restricted [19] Market Information (Soda Ash) - The soda ash main contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.05% (- 13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1176 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.69 million tons (an increase of 0.18% in the wrong calculation in the text). Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 907100 tons, an increase of 7500 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 800200 tons, a decrease of 14400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 22518 lots of long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 3823 lots of short positions [20] Strategy Viewpoints (Soda Ash) - The current soda ash industry has a relatively high supply, and the downstream demand is average. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and in the short - term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and steel consumption may gradually recover. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the price of iron ore will still run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [10]. - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm [13][15]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term. For soda ash, the industry supply is shrinking, the downstream demand is stable, but the price increase is limited by high inventory and weak demand. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,493 tons, a decrease of 5,119 tons from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.868036 million lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3255 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.400%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,543 tons, a decrease of 1,485 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.311464 million lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall; the demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and it was difficult to absorb the production, resulting in an inverse - seasonal inventory build - up. In general, the steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expected recovery of manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.44% (+11.00), and the position changed by - 29,119 lots to 501,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 924,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.44 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.13%. The Simandou Iron Ore Project was officially put into operation on November 11 [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume in the latest period continued to decline month - on - month. In the shipment end, the shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil continued to fall. Among the major mines, Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output in the latest period according to the Steel Union's statistics was 234,220 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons month - on - month. The environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, contributing a large part of the maintenance volume. The profitability rate of steel mills reached a new low this year, with 60% of steel mills below the break - even point, and some steel mills increased maintenance. In the inventory end, the port inventory increased at a faster pace, and the steel mill inventory increased month - on - month. The terminal data was weak. Fundamentally, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the pig iron output continued to decline, the demand for iron ore continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained. Macroscopically, the China - US summit in October and the Fed's interest rate meeting have both taken place. Overall, during the macro - vacuum period, the futures price trend is likely to follow the real - world logic. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the short - term price will still run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 12, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5762 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.04% at 5590 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price. On the daily - line level, the manganese silicon futures price was still in the oscillation range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, with no obvious directional trend. Currently, it is approaching the downward trend line since February this year. Attention should be paid to the support level around 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, the futures price was in the oscillation range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support level around 5400 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In October, the market was affected by many macro - events. In November, the macro - environment entered a relatively quiet period, and the pricing of the black - metal sector returned to fundamentals. This week, the pig iron output continued to decline, and the profitability rate of steel mills fell below 40%. The steel demand remained weak, especially the demand for plates declined significantly and started to build inventory again. Affected by multiple factors, the commodity sentiment that just showed signs of warming cooled down again. The market is trying to conduct "negative feedback" trading in the black - metal sector, but this is considered a temporary shock and emotional release, with limited downward space. For the future of the black - metal sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to buy for a rebound rather than shorting. The height after the rebound depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,588 lots to 412,146 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 155 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 245 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Yesterday, the price of industrial silicon declined during the day and then rebounded in the afternoon. In the short term, the price fluctuated. In October, the production of industrial silicon continued to increase. Although the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased during the dry season, the production in the northwest increased, offsetting the production decline caused by the dry season. It is expected that the production in the southwest will continue to decline in November. If the operating rate in the northwest stabilizes, the supply pressure may be relieved. In terms of demand, the production plan of polysilicon in November decreased, and some leading enterprises started maintenance, mainly in the southwest. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon weakened. The production of organosilicon is expected to be stable. The absolute value of the visible inventory is still high, but the marginal change is limited, and the marginal pressure on the price is small. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the cost support such as electricity and coal - coke is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 53,460 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.95% (+1530). The weighted contract position changed by +532 lots to 234,715 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, in November, some polysilicon production capacities started maintenance, and the production plan decreased to 120,000 tons, mainly in the southwest. The production in the last two months is expected to decline. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly, and the production is expected to decrease month - on - month compared with October. In the future, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price of second - and third - tier silicon wafer enterprises has loosened, which has a negative impact on the upstream price, especially when there is no actual progress in the platform company and stockpiling. The futures price has adjusted periodically. Future attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm. Currently, both long and short news about stockpiling and the platform company can easily affect the futures price, causing rapid declines or increases. Attention should be paid to distinguishing the authenticity and using position control to manage risks [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (-16). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, a decrease of 2.654 million cases (-4.03%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 19,034 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 625 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, the float glass market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals. As the optimistic sentiment brought by the production line shutdown in Shahe is gradually digested by the market, downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the production - sales ratio in some areas has slowed down. Although the supply in some regions has shrunk due to environmental protection policies, the impact on the overall supply - demand structure is limited. At the same time, the cost support for the price is continuously weakening, and the production profit of enterprises is generally under pressure. The market sentiment is generally pessimistic. In general, it is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (-11). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1164 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (4.03%) from the previous week, including 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 13,200 tons, and 814,600 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 1000 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 2689 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 19,653 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, some soda ash enterprises are reducing production, and Chongqing Heyou Industrial plans to shut down soon. The overall industry supply is shrinking. The downstream demand is stable, but the market transactions are mainly for low - price goods. The order - receiving situation of soda ash manufacturers is generally good. Affected by the shortage of some light soda ash in the Middle East, the price of new orders has increased. However, due to the high inventory and weak demand, the price increase space is still limited. It is expected that the market will be influenced by both long and short factors in the short term, and the price may continue to fluctuate [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The steel mills are suffering losses and reducing production, and the futures market is experiencing a negative feedback loop [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Plate Performance Comparison - Last week, the black plate declined collectively, with iron ore leading the decline, dropping about 5% week-on-week. The strength relationship among varieties was coke > coking coal > hot-rolled coil > rebar > iron ore [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The performance of different futures was differentiated, with black and energy-chemical futures being relatively weak [8] 03 Spot Prices - Coking coal and coke prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [15] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills decreased significantly, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [16] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and the inventory depletion slowed down [18] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals increased significantly month-on-month, and port inventories rebounded [27] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production decreased slightly, and inventories shifted downstream [33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and inventories were depleted again [35] 09 Variety Spreads - The futures profit continued to decline, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar remained stable [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - On November 3, the Ministry of Finance established a new Debt Management Department. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the United States. The "China's Actions for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" white paper was released. Various economic data such as trade, employment, and reserves were announced, and OPEC+ made production adjustment decisions [42]