Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the convertible bond market, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a ten-year high, driven by strong performance in the A-share market and a favorable investment environment for convertible bonds [1][2][3]. - The China Convertible Bond Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 7.18%, with a notable rise of over 22% since September 24, 2024, indicating strong market momentum [2]. - The convertible bond market is characterized by low volatility and low drawdown, attracting continuous inflow of new capital, which is expected to further enhance investment experiences [2][3]. Group 2 - Several funds tracking convertible bonds have reported positive returns this year, with the top-performing fund, China Europe Convertible Bond A, achieving a return of 13.11% [4][5]. - A total of 14 convertible bond funds have recorded returns exceeding 10%, showcasing the strong performance of this asset class [4][5]. - The performance of convertible bond ETFs has also been commendable, with returns exceeding 7% for the Bosera China Convertible Bond ETF and over 5% for the Haifutong Shanghai Investment Grade Convertible Bond ETF [5]. Group 3 - The supply-demand imbalance in the convertible bond market is a key factor supporting the rising valuations, with supply expected to contract while demand continues to grow [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that most convertible bonds exit through conversion to equity rather than actual repayment, suggesting manageable credit risk in the current market environment [3]. - The market's confidence in convertible bonds has strengthened due to reduced risks of delisting or default, further enhancing investor sentiment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is gaining significant attention as it reaches a ten-year high, driven by a combination of strong equity market performance and a supply-demand imbalance in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Convertible Bond Index has continuously set new ten-year highs, reaching a peak of 116.05 points on July 1, with a year-to-date increase of 7.18% and over 22% since September 24, 2024 [4]. - The convertible bond market has shown low volatility and low drawdown this year, indicating a potential influx of new capital and a favorable investment experience that may attract more funds [4]. Group 2: Fund Performance - All funds tracking convertible bonds have reported positive returns this year, with the highest return exceeding 13%. Notable funds include China Europe Convertible Bond A at 13.11% and several others with returns above 12% [2][6][8]. - The performance of convertible bond ETFs has also been strong, with returns exceeding 7% for the Bosera China Convertible Bond ETF and over 5% for the Hai Fu Tong Shanghai Investment Grade Convertible Bond ETF [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current strong performance of convertible bonds is attributed to the "debt protection and equity appreciation" characteristics, making them an attractive asset class amid an asset shortage [2]. - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue supporting the valuation of convertible bonds, with supply shrinking since 2024 and increasing demand from new capital [4][5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on June 27, with the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) rising by 1.25% and quickly surpassing a transaction volume of 1 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W saw a surge of over 5%, with other stocks like Kingsoft Cloud, SMIC, and Lenovo Holdings also experiencing gains [1] - The Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Technology Index, which reflects the performance of mainland companies engaged in technology business and listed in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - Recent improvements in liquidity and growth have broken the undervaluation phenomenon in the Hong Kong stock market, leading to a significant recovery in valuations [2] - The average daily trading volume and net inflow of southbound funds have increased substantially, with public funds showing a growing preference for Hong Kong stocks, reaching a historical high of 13.51% in the first quarter of 2025 for actively managed equity funds [2] - The return of Chinese concept stocks has notably enhanced the growth potential of the Hong Kong market, with the market capitalization of the top 10 Chinese technology giants listed in Hong Kong accounting for approximately 34% of the total market [2]

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Global major asset classes experienced a broad rally from June 16 to June 24, with risk assets represented by equities showing significant recovery [4][12] - The ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel on June 24 positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a notable rebound in global risk assets, while safe-haven assets like gold retreated [4][13] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, while paying attention to asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios [5][17] - The new paradigm is reinforced by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, with the strategic focus remaining on the all-weather adjustment of the "global barbell strategy" [5][18] - A statistical analysis of historical U.S. recession trading intervals revealed the volatility amplification factors for various assets, with the ranking being: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese Bonds > Bitcoin > National Bond Convertible Bonds > A-share Dividends [5][18] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on revised volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [5][18] Focus Data: Global Economic Data and Event Calendar - The economic data calendar from June 30 to July 13 includes significant indicators such as China's official manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 49.5, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 48.5 [20] - Other important data points include the unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone CPI for June, with the latter expected to be 1.9% [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply interpret the reshaping of the global order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets, particularly in light of the increasing risks associated with U.S. recession and the implications of new investment paradigms [3][4][9]. Group 1: Introduction and Key Variables - The beginning of the year has seen two critical variables (Deepseek and reciprocal tariffs) that reinforce the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm characterized by increasing de-globalization, trends in AI industries, and debt cycles [3][12]. - The global risk premium has risen, potentially amplifying asymmetric pricing risks, particularly regarding the underpricing of recession risks in major asset classes [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Recession Trading - Historical data shows that U.S. recession trading often begins 1-6 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a recession [4][42]. - Typical characteristics during U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, falling 10-year Treasury yields, widening credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [4][47]. Group 3: Volatility During Recession Trading - During past U.S. recession trading phases, asset volatility has increased, with risk assets experiencing greater volatility than safe-haven assets [4][63]. - The volatility amplification factors for various assets have been ranked, with Nasdaq showing the highest, followed by the Indian SENSEX30 and Hang Seng Technology [5][70]. Group 4: All-Weather Strategy Model - The article discusses how to adjust the all-weather strategy model to correct the underestimation of U.S. recession risks in asset pricing [4][70]. - The model suggests increasing the allocation to Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends while reducing exposure to Nasdaq, Indian SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Technology based on their respective volatility amplification factors [5][70]. Group 5: Asymmetric Pricing Risks - The current global investment landscape shows a significant underestimation of U.S. recession risks, which presents an opportunity for asymmetric trading strategies that favor high potential gains with limited losses [4][24]. - The article highlights the importance of adjusting asset allocations to account for these asymmetric risks, particularly in light of the evolving global economic landscape [4][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply interpret the reshaping of the global order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets, particularly in light of the increasing risks associated with U.S. recession and the implications of new investment paradigms [3][10]. Group 1: Introduction - The article discusses two key variables at the beginning of the year: Deepseek and equivalent tariffs, which reinforce the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm characterized by increasing de-globalization, trends in AI industries, and debt cycles [3][10]. - It suggests that the global risk premium has risen, potentially amplifying asymmetric pricing risks, particularly regarding the underpricing of recession risks in major asset classes [3][10]. Group 2: U.S. Recession Trading - Historical data indicates that U.S. recession trading often begins 1-6 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a recession [4][47]. - Typical characteristics during U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, falling 10-year Treasury yields, widening credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [4][47]. Group 3: Volatility During Recession Trading - The article notes that during past U.S. recession trading phases, asset volatility has generally increased, with risk assets experiencing greater volatility than safe-haven assets [5][65]. - Specific examples include the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Index showing higher volatility compared to gold and U.S. Treasuries during recession periods [5][65]. Group 4: All-Weather Strategy Model - The article proposes an all-weather strategy model to adjust for the underestimation of U.S. recession risks, focusing on the asymmetric pricing risks present in current asset allocations [6][73]. - It ranks various assets based on their volatility amplification factors during past recession trading periods, with Nasdaq, Indian SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Technology leading the list [6][73]. - The model suggests adjusting asset weights based on these factors, increasing allocations to underweighted assets like Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends while reducing exposure to overvalued assets like Nasdaq and Indian SENSEX30 [6][73].

Core Viewpoint - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, as two key variables (Deepseek and reciprocal tariffs) have further strengthened the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm [1] Group 1: U.S. Recession Trading - The initiation of recession trading often leads the actual declaration of recession by the NBER by an average of 1-6 months [1] - Typical characteristics of U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, a decrease in 10Y U.S. Treasury yields, widening U.S. credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [1] Group 2: Asset Volatility During Recession Trading - Historical data shows that asset volatility increases during U.S. recession trading phases, with risk assets experiencing a greater increase in volatility compared to safe-haven assets [2] - Specifically, the volatility amplification factor for risk assets (e.g., Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index) is greater than that for safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, U.S. Treasuries, Chinese bonds, A-share dividends) [2] Group 3: All-Weather Strategy Model - Investors need to focus on the asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios, particularly the underestimation of U.S. recession risks [3] - The ranking of volatility amplification factors for various assets during past U.S. recession trading periods is as follows: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese bonds > Bitcoin > A-share dividends [3] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on corrected volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply interpret the reshaping of the global order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets, particularly in light of the underestimation of U.S. recession risks in global asset pricing [3][20][46]. Group 1: Introduction - The beginning of the year has seen two key variables (Deepseek and equivalent tariffs) that reinforce the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm, characterized by increasing de-globalization, trends in AI industries, and debt cycles [3][10]. - The global risk premium has risen, potentially amplifying asymmetric pricing risks, with current global risk assets having largely recovered to levels prior to the imposition of equivalent tariffs [3][20]. Group 2: U.S. Recession Trading - Historical data shows that U.S. recession trading often begins 1-6 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a recession [4][47]. - Typical characteristics during U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, falling 10-year Treasury yields, widening U.S. credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [4][47]. Group 3: Volatility During Recession Trading - During past U.S. recession trading phases, asset volatility has increased, with risk assets experiencing greater volatility than safe-haven assets [5][65]. - The volatility amplification factors for risk assets (e.g., Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index) are higher than those for safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, U.S. Treasuries) [5][65]. Group 4: All-Weather Strategy Model - The article discusses how to adjust the all-weather strategy model to correct the underestimation of U.S. recession risks in asset pricing [6][73]. - The model suggests that the risk parity principle should be applied based on the adjusted volatility of various assets, leading to changes in asset allocation [6][73]. - The revised model indicates an increase in allocation for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing allocations for Nasdaq and Indian SENSEX30 [6][73]. Group 5: Asymmetric Pricing Risks - The current global investment landscape shows a significant underpricing of U.S. recession risks, which presents an opportunity for asymmetric trading strategies [20][46]. - The article highlights the importance of adjusting asset allocations to account for the potential impact of U.S. recession risks on various asset classes [20][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for global asset allocation strategies centered around three main factors: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [1][2] - The proposed investment strategy is a "global barbell strategy," which includes stable assets on one end and high-yield, high-volatility assets on the other [1][2] - The current global economic uncertainty necessitates a focus on asymmetric pricing opportunities within various asset classes [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the U.S. trade policy is unlikely to reverse the three underlying logics of the new investment paradigm, potentially increasing global political and economic uncertainty [2] - The recommendation includes a focus on defensive sectors in response to potential U.S. economic recession risks, alongside the necessity of gold as a sovereign credit asset [3] - The domestic market is currently in a debt contraction phase, transitioning from "passive leverage" to "active deleveraging," suggesting that domestic interest rate bonds hold long-term investment value [4] Group 3 - The "barbell strategy" is also applicable to strategic asset allocation in China, with a continued positive outlook on interest rate bonds and a focus on dividend assets and AI technology [4] - The AI sector, particularly represented by the "Tech Seven Sisters" in the U.S. market, has shown strong performance, but significant investment risks are present this year [4] - Recommended sectors include resilient dividend assets such as utilities, telecommunications, and banking, as well as industries benefiting from the AI trend, particularly those in the infrastructure to downstream application transition [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation should focus on three core factors: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The current global economic uncertainty necessitates an investment strategy that adopts a "global barbell strategy," which includes both stable assets and high-yield, high-volatility assets [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on investments in gold, short-duration U.S. Treasury bonds, Chinese interest rate bonds, and China's dividend assets combined with AI technology industries [1]