| 向复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 役 ② | | 中证1000ETF | 159845 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T 换1.92% 振0.89% 额9.64亿 | 3.138 | | +0.003 +0.10% | | 2025/09/12-2025/12/31(73日) | | | | | | | SZSE CNY 13:36:21 交易中 融 △ ○ + | | | 3.160 | 净值走势 | | 华夏中证1000ETF | | | 委比 | 9.97% 委差 | 22228 | | | 卖五 | 3.142 | 8715 | | 3.110 | 卖叫 | 3.141 | 7497 | | | | 3.140 | 24818 | | | | 3.139 | 28918 | | 3.060 | | 3.138 | 30395 | | | | 3.137 | 1999 | | | 发 | 3.136 | 36596 | | 3.010 | ポー | 3.135 | 52447 | | | 买四 | 3.134 | 18583 | | | 采 | 3.133 | 12946 ...

重要提醒 我们对权益相对乐观，建议 2026 年 1 月权益配置权重为 47.50% ： 超配 A 股（ 10.00% ），超配港股（ 10.00% ），超配美股（ 17.50% ），低配欧 股（ 2.50% ），标配日股（ 5.00% ），低配印股（ 2.50% ）。 权益资产中，（ 1 ）多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配 A/H 股。 经济工作会议临 近， 2026 年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。美联储 12 月如期降息，人民币稳定升值，为 2026 年初中国宽 松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市场风险偏好。 （ 2 ）"金发姑娘"背景渐显有利于美股表现，建议超配美股。 美国经济边际降温但韧性仍在，内生性通 胀粘性逐渐减弱，企业盈利预期或仍支撑美股中枢上行。 我们 对债券相对中性，建议 2026 年 1 月债券配置权重为 37.50% ： 长久期国债（ 10.00% ），短久期国债（ 10.00% ），长久期美债（ 7.50% ）， 短久期美债（ 10.00% ）。 债券资产中，（ 1 ）新年国债配置力量或进行博弈。 融资需求与信贷供给不平衡仍是客观现实，但风险偏 ...

恒越基金吴海宁： 把握科技轮动 锚定高景气赛道机遇 对于2026年的市场，吴海宁认为依然机遇颇多。在她看来，流动性是关键因素之一，2026年各主要经济 体大概率仍处于降息周期，资金面相对宽松。AI产业趋势周期仍处于上半场，模型预计不断进化，产 业链核心公司的业绩增长确定性较高，她会重点跟踪阿里的AI资本开支变化和模型进展。 同时，她也关注恒生科技指数成分股估值回落后的龙头股机会。据悉，吴海宁近日新任恒越智选科技的 基金经理，该基金投资范围覆盖港股通标的。"该基金可在维持恒越优势精选的投资策略基础上，适时 把握恒生科技未来的投资机会。"她说。 ◎记者 朱妍 今年以来科技赛道机会涌现，但细分热点切换较快。部分善于捕捉科技成长投资机遇的基金经理，凭借 敏锐的行业和市场"嗅觉"，以较为精准的节奏实现了较高的投资回报，比如管理恒越优势精选的基金经 理吴海宁。近日，吴海宁接受上海证券报记者采访，复盘了全年的投资逻辑，并分享其2026年的核心布 局方向。 锚定高景气科技赛道 回顾今年以来的操作，对各个高景气科技板块轮动节奏的较好把控，是吴海宁获得不错回报的关键原 因。 吴海宁管理的恒越优势精选在今年一季度主要配置了智能驾驶 ...

12月23日，市场早盘三大指数集体上涨，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.34%，深成指涨0.65%，创指涨 0.78%。市场半日成交超1.2万亿，较上个交易日小幅放量，两市下跌个股超3300只。 截至2025年12月22日，A股今年总成交额超过405万亿元，这是A股历史上首次年成交额超过400万亿 元。整体换手率也明显向好，年内平均换手率接近1.74%，有望创2016年来新高。从个股来看，多达19 只个股今年成交额超过万亿元，中际旭创、东方财富、新易盛等个股年内成交额均超两万亿元；寒武 纪-U、宁德时代等个股年内成交额均超1.8万亿元。 盘面上，锂电股快速拉升走强，天赐材料、华盛锂电、滨海能源等多股涨停。消息面上，锂业分会表 示，11月碳酸锂期货价格逐步抬升，市场对未来锂价预期乐观。供应端，市场库存逐步加速去化，宁德 时代旗下锂矿消息仍形成扰动，锂盐、锂云母提锂等产量小幅下跌。需求端，新能源车在补贴退坡前抢 销量，储能表现亮眼。 此外，光刻机、光刻机等芯片产业链走强，同飞股份、中光防雷等多股涨停；贵金属、小金属等金属板 块连日大涨，山东黄金、中金黄金、晓程科技等个股纷纷上涨；锂电板块集体冲高，天赐材料、华盛锂 电、滨 ...

科技创新浪潮席卷全球，中国资产迎来系统性地价值重估的背景下，如何把握这一科技创新投资大时 代？华商基金权益投资副总监、华商均衡成长混合基金经理张明昕表示，要坚守价值投资，聚焦产业趋 势，追求长期可复制可持续的业绩。他管理的华商均衡成长混合基金业绩表现突出。截至2025年12月10 日，华商均衡成长混合A今年以来净值增长率高达140.87%。银河证券数据显示，截至2025年11月末， 华商均衡成长混合C近1年、3年业绩排名双双位列同类第七，为投资者在复杂多变的市场中带来了较好 的持有体验。 | 时间区间 | | 华商均衡成长混合C | 华商均衡成长混合A | | 业绩比较基准 收益率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 净值增长率 | 业绩排名 | 净值增长率 | 业绩排名 | | | 今年以来 2025.1.1 - 2025.12.10 | 139.53% | 不适用 | 140.87% | 不适用 | 23.89% | | 近1年 | 103.35% | 第7 | 104.55% | 第9 | 19.81% | | 2024.12.1-2025.11.30 ...

科技创新浪潮席卷全球，中国资产迎来系统性地价值重估的背景下，如何把握这一科技创新投资大时 代？华商基金权益投资副总监、华商均衡成长混合基金经理张明昕表示，要坚守价值投资，聚焦产业趋 势，追求长期可复制可持续的业绩。他管理的华商均衡成长混合基金业绩表现突出。截至2025年12月10 日，华商均衡成长混合A今年以来净值增长率高达140.87%。银河证券数据显示，截至2025年11月末， 华商均衡成长混合C近1年、3年业绩排名双双位列同类第七，为投资者在复杂多变的市场中带来了较好 的持有体验。 | 华商均衡成长混合近1年、3年业绩排名均列同类前十 | | --- | | 时间区间 | | 华商均衡成长混合C | 华商均衡成长混合A | | 业绩比较基准 收益率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 净值增长率 | 业绩排名 | 净值增长率 | 业绩排名 | | | 今年以来 2025.1.1 - 2025.12.10 | 139.53% | 不适用 | 140.87% | 不适用 | 23.89% | | 近1年 | 103.35% | 第7 | 104.55% | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the CPO, optical module, and optical chip sectors, with significant gains in the ChiNext AI ETF and individual stocks [1] - The ChiNext AI ETF (159382.SZ) has risen by 3%, with notable individual stocks like Changxin Bochuang and Zhishang Technology increasing over 10% [1] - A major breakthrough in the next-generation computing chip field was reported by Shanghai Jiao Tong University's Institute of Integrated Circuits, achieving a full optical computing chip that supports large-scale semantic media generation models [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext AI ETF (159382.SZ) serves as an efficient tool for investing in the trends of artificial intelligence and optical modules, with its index heavily weighted towards leading companies in the optical module sector [2] - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF cover key companies across the entire computing power chain, including GPU, storage, and SoC, aligning with the core needs of building a self-sufficient AI industry system [2] - The sector is benefiting from the global AI infrastructure and China's market policies, highlighting the long-term investment value of the ChiNext AI ETF [2]

来源：兴证策略张启尧团队 一、国内外政策验证窗口落下帷幕，市场躁动具备良好基础 12月以来市场波动加大，背后反映的是国内外一系列影响流动性和基本面预期的重要事件相继迎来验证下，资金观望和博弈情绪较重。而随着上周美联储 议息会议、国内中央经济工作会议先后召开，本周美国就业及物价数据发布、日本央行加息靴子落地，至此国内外政策验证窗口基本落下帷幕，整体基调 好于市场预期，有望为躁动行情开启奠定良好基础。 一方面，美国本周发布的就业和物价数据没有引发更多悲观情绪，反而为联储进一步宽松提供更多想象空间。上周美联储降息落地后，市场仍在等待就业 和物价数据验证对美联储未来宽松的进一步指引。而本周发布的美国11月失业率略有回升、CPI数据大幅低于预期，市场继续定价软着陆，叠加特朗普表 示下一任美联储主席"需支持大幅降低利率"，为美联储进一步宽松打开想象空间。往后看，关键数据验证期过后，中长期的宽松叙事有望主导资产定价。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage strategy analysts remain optimistic about the spring market rally, awaiting an effective signal to initiate the movement [1] Group 1: Market Signals and Economic Indicators - Analysts from Xingzheng Strategy highlight that the liquidity expectations are shifting positively due to recent overseas events and a supportive domestic policy environment, indicating a transition from cautious behavior to actively seeking opportunities [1] - Key signals to watch for the potential market rally include the possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions at the end of the year and early next year, with observation windows in early next week and January [1][2] - Important economic indicators such as PPI, PMI, M1, social financing, and annual reports from listed companies are expected to uplift the basic economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends and Sector Focus - The Guangfa Strategy team anticipates that 2026 will resemble an enhanced version of 2025, with continued support from insurance capital and regulation, alongside an acceleration in the migration of deposits from residents, particularly among high-net-worth individuals [1][2] - The trend of high-net-worth residents moving their deposits has already begun to accelerate, with new private equity fund registrations reaching 386 billion yuan from January to October 2025, with monthly registration sizes nearing levels seen in 2021 [1][2] - The Xinda Strategy team emphasizes the increasing elasticity of non-bank financial sectors, suggesting a potential rotation of market focus from banks to non-bank financials, with insurance valuations appearing more attractive [1][3] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities and Predictions - Analysts suggest that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and consumer services, are likely to see significant growth, with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026 [2] - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities driven by policy guidance and industrial momentum, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The spring market rally is anticipated to be influenced by the performance of cyclical sectors, with a focus on commodities and consumer sectors benefiting from increased consumption and fiscal stimulus [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that the A-share market typically exhibits a balanced style from December to January, with large-cap, low-valuation, and cyclical styles being relatively dominant. This is influenced by expectations of strengthened growth policies and the preferences of major institutional investors for large-cap and dividend styles as the year ends and begins [1][4]. Market Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, the market style shifts towards small-cap and technology growth sectors, driven by liquidity and risk appetite [1][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high prosperity sectors for investment, particularly those with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026, including AI industry trends, advantageous manufacturing, "anti-involution," and structural recovery in domestic demand [1][20]. High Prosperity Sectors - **AI Industry Trends**: Focus on hardware (communication equipment, components, semiconductor industry chain, consumer electronics) and software applications (IT services, software development, gaming, advertising) [1][20]. - **Advantageous Manufacturing**: Includes the new energy industry chain (lithium batteries, lithium mines, wind power equipment, new energy vehicles), military industry (ground equipment, aerospace equipment, military electronics), machinery (robots, machine tools), and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs) [1][20]. - **"Anti-Involution"**: Covers sectors such as steel, building materials (cement, glass fiber, renovation materials, plastics), chemicals (chemical raw materials, chemical fibers, rubber), new energy (photovoltaics, silicon materials), and aviation airports [2][20]. - **Structural Recovery in Domestic Demand**: Encompasses service consumption (film and television, education, retail, e-commerce, hotel catering, tourism, hospitals), new consumption (snack foods, cultural and entertainment products), and home textiles [3][20]. Market Conditions and Signals - The report notes that the recent increase in market volatility reflects a series of significant domestic and international events impacting liquidity and fundamental expectations. The conclusion of the policy verification window is expected to provide a solid foundation for a potential market rally [4][8]. - Historical patterns suggest that market rallies often begin following the resolution of uncertainty, the implementation of easing policies, or the validation of positive economic data [9][18]. Investment Strategy - The report advises focusing on sectors that benefit from the current favorable conditions, including cyclical sectors and those aligned with domestic recovery trends. The emphasis is on sectors that are likely to experience valuation recovery due to supportive policies and improving economic fundamentals [19][23]. - Technology growth is highlighted as a critical driver for the upcoming market rally, with a favorable environment for investments in technology sectors as liquidity expectations improve [25].