Economic Indicators - As of July 27, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[7] - The ELI index as of July 27, 2025, is -0.81%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating that the "anti-involution" policy has not yet changed the monetary policy stance[11] Industrial Production - The operating rate for major industries remains stable, with the steel mill blast furnace operating rate at 83.48%, unchanged from last week[15] - The inventory of iron ore at ports is recorded at 137.94 million tons, up 12.34 million tons from the previous week[16] Consumption Trends - Weekly average sales of passenger cars reached 58,207 units, an increase of 7,266 units year-on-year, but a decrease of 12% month-on-month[21] - The consumer price index for textiles recorded 105.86 points, down 1.36 percentage points from the previous week[22] Investment Insights - The land supply area in 100 major cities reached 1,387.59 million square meters, up 8.81% week-on-week[25] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 133.91 million square meters, up 3.50% week-on-week[26] Export Performance - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1,592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export prices[34] - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports from July 7 to July 13 was 26,676.6 million tons, up 2.43% week-on-week[33] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.72 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week[39] - The Brent crude oil futures price is recorded at $68.79 per barrel, down $0.26 from the previous week[39] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 16,563 billion yuan in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan for the week[44] - The 7-day SHIBOR rate increased from 1.4770% to 1.6200% over the week, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions[44] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could impact trade dynamics[48] - The effectiveness of newly implemented policies may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[48]

Economic Indicators - As of July 20, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.13%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[9] - The ELI index is at -0.91%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential acceleration in structural policy tool deployment[12] Investment and Financing - In the first half of 2025, China’s bond market issued various bonds totaling 44.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%[15] - Net financing from bonds reached 8.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.6% of the increase in social financing scale[15] - The average issuance rate for corporate credit bonds in June 2025 was 2.08%, down 32 basis points from the previous year[15] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending July 13, 2025, was 47,548 units, an increase of 4,218 units year-on-year[22] - Retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-13, 2025, totaled 571,000 units, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, but a 5.0% decrease month-on-month[22] Construction and Real Estate - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities decreased by 18.63% week-on-week, totaling 12.75 million square meters[26] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 15.63% week-on-week, amounting to 1.0916 million square meters[26] Inflation and Prices - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.65 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables remains at 4.38 yuan/kg[38] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $69.05/barrel, down $0.74 from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures rose to $3,351.70/ounce, up $17.62[38]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.14%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of July is at 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from June[7] - The real estate sales area in 30 major cities has a year-on-year growth rate of -26.5%, worsening from June's -10.6%[7] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry is 64.56% for full steel tires and 72.92% for semi-steel tires, with increases of 0.81 and 2.51 percentage points respectively[15] - The coastal power plants' load rate reached an average of 85.00%, up 2.29 percentage points from the previous week[14] Export and Trade - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The total export amount for South Korea in early July shows a year-on-year growth of 9.50%, up 4.60 percentage points from June[30] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.97%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[10] - The net monetary withdrawal for the week is 2265 billion yuan, with 4257 billion yuan in reverse repos conducted[40] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, and the effectiveness of new policies may fall short of market expectations[47]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to June, while the demand index remained stable[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.03 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.90%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal recovery in loan demand[11] - New RMB loans are expected to be between CNY 1.80 trillion and CNY 2.0 trillion in June, slightly lower than the same period last year by CNY 0.28 trillion to CNY 0.13 trillion[14] - Government net financing reached CNY 1.41 trillion in June, an increase of CNY 0.7 trillion year-on-year, contributing to a projected social financing scale increase of CNY 3.6 trillion to CNY 3.8 trillion[14] Consumption and Production Insights - Passenger car retail sales in June increased by 15% year-on-year, improving from 13% in May[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending June 30 were 95,374 units, slightly down from the previous year[21] - The electricity load of coastal power plants averaged 82.71%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong industrial production[16] Export and Price Trends - The SCFI and CCFI indices for export container prices fell by 98.02 points and 26.35 points, respectively, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The average wholesale price of pork is CNY 20.38 per kg, showing a slight increase, while the price of key monitored vegetables is CNY 4.35 per kg, down slightly[37] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[46]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.12%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.16%, down 0.07 percentage points from May, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.97%, unchanged from May, while the consumption index is at 49.75%, also unchanged from May[7] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Passenger car retail sales have improved, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24% as of June 22, up from 20% earlier in the month[7] - Real estate sales area in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 17.8% as of June 28, worsening from a decline of 3.3% in May[7] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week[37] Group 3: External Demand and Trade - Port cargo throughput growth is at 0.8% year-on-year as of June 22, down from 4.4% in May, indicating a reduction in export disturbances due to tariffs[7] - The SCFI index for container shipping rates is at 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous week[32] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] - The central bank's net monetary injection for the week is 106.72 billion yuan, following a reverse repurchase operation of 202.75 billion yuan[41]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.15%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.93%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.17%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from May, with the demand index also at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.96%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index has slightly increased to 49.76%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 8.6% as of June 21, indicating a weakening in market sentiment[7] - Passenger car retail sales increased by 20% year-on-year for the first half of June, showing improvement compared to the previous month[7] - The government plans to distribute 138 billion yuan in central funds for "trade-in" programs in the third and fourth quarters, which may support consumption in the long term[7] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.02%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[11] - A total of 4.17 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit will mature this month, with only 2.96 trillion yuan issued, suggesting ongoing financing pressure in the banking system[13] - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 200 billion yuan through reverse repos to support liquidity ahead of the quarter-end[13] Risks and Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.18%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.18%, down 0.05 percentage points from May, and the demand index remains flat at 49.93%[7] - The ELI index is at -1.06%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] Industrial Production - Major industries' operating rates in June show a seasonal decline, but overall performance is better than the same period last year[7] - The operating rate for PTA is recorded at 83.25%, up 4.62 percentage points from the previous week, and the steel furnace operating rate is at 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points[15] Exports - June exports are expected to show a slight decline, with key port cargo throughput down 7.95% week-on-week[32] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of June is at 5.4%, a significant improvement compared to May[32] Consumption - Weekly average sales of passenger cars are recorded at 42,835 units, a year-on-year increase of 6,825 units, but a month-on-month decrease of 12%[22] - The consumer price index for textiles shows a slight increase, with the Keqiao textile price index at 105.08 points, up 0.02 points from last week[22] Investment - The construction material prices continue to decline, with ordinary Portland cement priced at 302.20 yuan/ton, down 5.90 yuan from the previous week[26] - The land supply area in 100 major cities decreased by 20.84% week-on-week, while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.41%[26] Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is at 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan from last week, while Brent crude oil prices increased to $69.45 per barrel, up $4.07[38]

Economic Indicators - As of June 8, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.19%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.17 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] Financing and Social Financing - In May 2025, new loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 800 billion RMB, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.25 to 0.15 trillion RMB[13] - Government bond financing in May reached 1.49 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.17 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year[13] - The total social financing scale is expected to increase by 2.2 to 2.5 trillion RMB in May, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for April 2025 due to a low base effect from last year[13] Industrial Production and Investment - The operating rate for major industries has shown a seasonal decline, but remains better than the same period last year, reflecting reduced tariff impacts[7] - Infrastructure investment continues to recover, with the operating rate for asphalt plants at 31.30%, up 3.60 percentage points from last year[26] - The sales area of commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 22.5% year-on-year in the first week of June[7] Export and Trade - The Shanghai container freight index increased by 167.64 points to 2240.35 points, indicating improved shipping demand[32] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 177.50 points to 1520.00 points, reflecting a recovery in maritime trade[32] - South Korea's export growth rate fell to -1.30%, a decline of 5.00 percentage points from April[32] Risks and Policy Outlook - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[48] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[48]

Economic Indicators - As of June 8, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.19%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.17 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] Financing and Social Financing - In May 2025, new loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 800 billion RMB, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.25 to 0.15 trillion RMB[13] - Government bond financing in May reached 1.49 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.17 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year[13] - The total social financing scale is expected to increase by 2.2 to 2.5 trillion RMB in May, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for April 2025 due to a low base effect from last year[13] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry has decreased, with full steel tires at 63.47% and semi-steel tires at 73.86%, down 1.33 and 4.39 percentage points respectively[15] - The national high furnace operating rate is recorded at 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points from the previous week[15] Consumption Trends - Passenger car retail sales in May increased by 13% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10%[22] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.63 RMB/kg, down 0.11 RMB/kg from the previous week[38] Export Performance - The Shanghai container freight index rose to 2240.35 points, an increase of 167.64 points from the previous week[33] - The Baltic Dry Index averaged 1520.00 points, up 177.50 points from the previous week[33] Risks - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[48]

Economic Indicators - As of May 18, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.24%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first three weeks of May is 50.25%, down 0.10 percentage points from April, and the demand index is 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is 49.95%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.74%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Central Bank and Monetary Policy - As of April 30, 2025, the central bank's total balance sheet is 45.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 108.48 billion yuan from March 2025[13] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds decreased by 1823.5 billion yuan in April, bringing the total to 25.18 trillion yuan[14] - In April, the central bank increased support for the capital market by 3700 billion yuan, indicating a proactive stance to stabilize the market[14] Market Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars from May 1 to May 11 increased by 34% compared to the same period last month[7] - The container shipping price index for exports to the U.S. has shown significant improvement, with rates for the West and East coasts rising by 23.2% and 21.5% respectively as of May 16[7] - The construction sector is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025, with the asphalt working rate showing a notable recovery compared to last year[7] Risks and Outlook - There is a potential for a "rush to export" phenomenon in the short term, which could impact market stability[46] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]