Core Insights - Among the 27 trillion-yuan cities, 17 cities outperformed the national GDP growth rate in the first three quarters of the year [1] - Yantai leads with a GDP growth rate of 6.4%, followed by Tangshan at 6.2% and Hefei at 5.9% [1] - The rankings of the top twenty trillion-yuan cities have seen significant changes, with Quanzhou rising for two consecutive quarters and re-entering the top twenty [1] Economic Performance - A total of 19 cities have surpassed a GDP of one trillion yuan, with Shanghai exceeding four trillion yuan and Beijing surpassing 3.8 trillion yuan [1] - Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Guangzhou each have GDPs exceeding two trillion yuan [1] Ranking Changes - Nantong's GDP growth was strong in the first half of the year, improving its ranking by five places, but it fell out of the top twenty in the third quarter [1] - Hefei continues to maintain rapid growth, rising two places to rank 18th [1] - Foshan has declined further after dropping out of the top twenty in the second quarter, with a growth rate of only 1.6% [1]

Core Insights - As of November 6, all economic data for the 27 trillion-yuan cities in the first three quarters have been released, with 17 cities outperforming the national GDP growth rate [1] - Yantai leads with a GDP growth rate of 6.4%, followed by Tangshan at 6.2% and Hefei at 5.9% [1] - The rankings of the top twenty trillion-yuan cities have seen significant changes, with Quanzhou rising for two consecutive quarters and re-entering the top twenty, while Nantong has dropped out [1][3] Economic Performance - Currently, 19 cities have a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan, with Shanghai surpassing four trillion yuan, Beijing exceeding 3.8 trillion yuan, and Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Guangzhou all exceeding two trillion yuan [1] - Hefei has maintained high growth, moving up two positions to rank 18th, while Foshan has continued to decline after dropping out of the top twenty in the second quarter [1][3] City Rankings and Growth Rates - The GDP growth rates for various cities include: - Yantai: 6.4% - Tangshan: 6.2% - Hefei: 5.9% (up 2 positions) - Quanzhou: 5.5% (up 3 positions) - Nantong: 5.4% (down 3 positions) - Foshan: 1.6% (down 2 positions) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PMI data showed a combination of "manufacturing decline and non - manufacturing slight increase." The manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally, presenting a "weak supply and demand" pattern. Due to factors such as pre - holiday demand release, international environment complexity, and global economic slowdown, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down marginally [3][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 10 - Month PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value and below the seasonal level. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value, entering the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value, at the critical point [3][9]. 10 - Month Manufacturing Situation Supply and Demand - The production index in October was 49.7%, a 2.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, below the boom - bust line and weaker than the seasonal performance. The new order index was 48.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in demand. The new export order index was 45.9%, a 1.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, the second - lowest of the year, due to global economic slowdown and trade uncertainties [4][10]. Price - The main raw material purchase price index was 52.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and it has been in the expansion range for 4 consecutive months. The ex - factory price index was 47.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The gap between raw material prices and ex - factory prices widened to 5 percentage points, indicating continued pressure on the profits of mid - and downstream processing industries [4][10]. 10 - Month Non - Manufacturing Situation Services - The services PMI was 50.2%, remaining in the expansion range. Driven by holiday effects, industries related to travel and consumption had high business activity indices. The postal industry also saw accelerated growth due to promotional activities. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises [5][11]. Construction - The construction PMI in October was 49.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, still below the boom - bust line. However, the business activity expectation index was 56.0%, a 3.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, showing continued improvement in the market development expectations of construction enterprises [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity for China to focus on development, particularly investing in human capital and new industries, to address both domestic and international challenges while achieving modernization goals [2][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Development Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" reiterates the importance of prioritizing economic construction, reflecting the changing domestic and international environments, including rising economic nationalism and trade protectionism [5][6]. - The plan aims for a per capita GDP of approximately $30,000 by 2035, indicating a significant growth target from the current level of over $13,000 [5]. - Development is seen as essential for addressing various issues, including livelihood, consumption, national defense, and social stability [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Direction - There is a shift in investment focus from material construction to human capital, emphasizing the need for more diverse economic activities and new industries [3][5]. - The article suggests that while maintaining a GDP growth rate of around 5% is necessary, the focus should be on nurturing new industries and innovative sectors [7][8]. - The potential for growth in service industries, such as AI, gaming, and innovative pharmaceuticals, is highlighted, indicating a need for regulatory adjustments to facilitate this growth [7][8]. Group 3: Regional Coordination and Development - The Greater Bay Area is identified as a crucial economic growth region, with a call for improved coordination among its cities to enhance industrial structure and competitiveness [10][11]. - Learning from the Yangtze River Delta's successful coordination mechanisms, the article advocates for a multi-layered collaborative approach among cities in the Greater Bay Area [10][11]. - The integration of strengths from different cities, such as Hong Kong's research capabilities and mainland China's application of technology, is seen as vital for creating a complete innovation chain [11][12].

Group 1 - The likelihood of setting a GDP growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is high, as historical trends show that previous plans typically included clear growth targets, except for the "14th Five-Year Plan" due to external shocks and economic uncertainty [3][6][8] - Historical performance indicates that past GDP targets have often been exceeded, providing confidence that the "15th Five-Year Plan" can also achieve its goals [5][6] - The proposed GDP growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is around 4.8%, based on calculations to meet the long-term goal of doubling economic output or per capita income by 2035 [11][13] Group 2 - The economic growth target is expected to be set at approximately 4.8%, which aligns with potential growth estimates considering factors like aging population and external economic pressures [13][24] - The policy direction for achieving the growth target will likely be proactive, focusing on increasing government leverage, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing consumer spending, particularly in services [16][20][22] - Specific measures will include maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4%, supporting the real estate market, and promoting service consumption through initiatives like trade-in programs [20][22][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's judgment of international relations tends to swing between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. Market volatility may persist as it overreacts to fast - changing international relations while having relatively well - formed expectations for slow - changing variables like interest rates [4]. - China's Q3 GDP in 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, meeting expectations and laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target. Industrial production rebounded significantly, but consumer spending, real estate, and fixed - asset investment were drags [4]. - After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, broad - based indexes rose, and the deepening of the management of local state - owned "three capitals" also boosted market sentiment this week [4]. - A - share trading volume further shrank to less than 2 trillion yuan per day, and the margin balance generally increased, with most of the outflows from last week being replenished. All indexes had similar weekly gains [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - **Basis Changes**: This week, the basis of each futures variety fluctuated less, and the overall discount narrowed compared to last week. By the end of this Friday, the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM converged to around 2.6%, 8.9%, and 11.4% respectively. The near - month contracts in the term structure moved down slightly, with little change overall, and diversified hedging can be maintained [5]. - **Basis Data Table**: Detailed data on the last week's basis, this week's basis, basis changes, and index - enhanced annualized returns for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, in the IF contracts, the basis of IF2511 changed from - 18.43 last week to - 12.28 this week, with a change of 6.15 and an index - enhanced annualized return of 4.7% [2]. - **Basis Considering Dividends**: Data on the closing price, basis considering dividends, expected total dividend points, and annualized premium/discount rate for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented. For instance, for the IF2511 contract, the closing price is 4648.40, the basis considering dividends is - 10.88, the expected total dividend points are 1.40, and the annualized discount rate is - 3.04% [6]. 3.2. Hedging Profits and Losses - **Hedging Profit and Loss Data Table**: Data on last week's and this week's hedging profits and losses for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, the hedging profit of IF2511 last week was 2.00, and this week it was - 6.15 [13]. - **Hedging Profit and Loss Charts**: Charts showing the 60 - trading - day cumulative hedging profits and losses for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, visually reflecting the changes in hedging profits and losses [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic policy has released positive signals, but corporate profits have not significantly improved. Therefore, the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution. As the Fed's October interest rate decision approaches and the expectation of an interest rate cut this year has been digested in advance, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, gold is likely to continue high - level volatile adjustments [36]. - In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies fading, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East easing, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year being fully digested, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points slower than in the second quarter. From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the first negative growth since September 2020. Industrial added value increased by 6.2% year - on - year, the same as last month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [4]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - In September this year, the scale of new loans and social financing rebounded, and the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, reflecting that financial institutions have continuously increased credit support for enterprises. The A - share market was active, and liquidity remained abundant [17]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2426.377 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan [21]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US federal government was in a shutdown, causing some economic data to fail to be released on time. There were differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials supported a further interest rate cut this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell below the 4% mark [27][28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [34]. Strategy Recommendation - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to decline, mainly dragged down by the expanding decline in real estate investment and the slowing growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment. With the improvement of weather conditions and the arrival of the peak construction season, industrial production expanded faster. Affected by the high - base effect of the same period last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down marginally. The foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and the characteristics of strong production, weak demand, strong service industry, and weak manufacturing industry are still significant, with insufficient demand remaining the main contradiction [35]. - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, proposing the main goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan and requiring continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies. A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market expects positive progress in the negotiations. With positive signals from the domestic policy side and eased concerns about China - US trade frictions, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, but the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution [35]. - As the Fed's October interest - rate meeting approaches, it is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, due to the continuous shutdown of the US government, important data such as non - farm employment and core inflation have not been released on time, bringing uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate policy. In terms of international geopolitics, the meeting between US and Russian leaders was postponed, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has changed again. The expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has been repeatedly digested, and after the rapid rise of gold, some funds have taken profits. Gold may enter a stage of adjustment in the short term [35].

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP growth rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2's 5.2%, but the cumulative growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that achieving the annual target of 5.0% is still feasible [1][2] - Fixed asset investment has been a major drag on growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% in September 2025, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [1][10] Consumption Trends - Retail sales continued to decline in September 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from August [1][24] - The restaurant sector also saw a slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][28] Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained stable at 6.2% in September 2025, with significant differentiation between real estate-related and non-real estate-related industries [1][4] - Real estate-related industries such as glass, cement, and crude steel experienced accelerated production contraction, while non-real estate-related industries showed marginal growth [1][11] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% month-on-month in September, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.3% [1][7] - Core CPI increased to 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by rising gold and service prices [1][7] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment showed a downward trend across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors, with real estate investment down 13.9% year-on-year in September [1][10] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.3% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][10] Debt Market Conditions - The debt market remains under pressure, with short-term fluctuations driven by U.S.-China trade news, but lacking strong long-term support [1][18] - The short end of the debt market shows higher certainty, while long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing increased volatility [1][18]

Market Overview - The recent surge in the index is notable, but the lack of trading volume raises concerns about the sustainability of this increase [1][2] - The index has returned to above 3900 points, indicating a potential shift from a fluctuating range to a converging triangle pattern [2] Trading Volume Analysis - Trading volume has significantly decreased, with last week's volume dropping below 20,000, indicating a lack of buying enthusiasm among investors [1][2] - The current trading volume is below 20 billion, suggesting a decline in incremental capital inflow and a cautious market sentiment [2][3] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as engineering machinery, banking, and insurance have shown strong performance, with some stocks reaching new highs [1] - The insurance sector is expected to perform well in the upcoming quarterly reports due to increased stock market investments, despite overall macroeconomic pressures [3] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is anticipated to show a decline, which may impact market expectations for corporate earnings [3] - The completion of GDP targets may lead to a reduction in macroeconomic stimulus measures, affecting overall market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, showing an acceleration compared to the previous year, with consumption becoming the primary driver of economic growth [1][4][12] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, indicating a significant increase in consumer spending [4][5] - Despite the positive growth, there are concerns about the downward trend in GDP growth rates and the need for macroeconomic policy adjustments to maintain the target of around 5% for the year [2][12] Group 2 - The articles emphasize that consumption has become the main driving force of economic growth, especially in the context of low investment and external trade uncertainties [4][5] - Various macroeconomic policies have been implemented to boost consumption, including significant fiscal measures and support for consumer goods [5][6] - The articles also note that while consumption is strong, there are challenges such as declining retail sales growth and low consumer price index (CPI) growth, which may affect overall economic sentiment [7][8] Group 3 - Experts predict that achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5% is feasible, but it requires addressing the gap between macroeconomic statistics and microeconomic perceptions [12][13] - The anticipated economic policies include measures to stabilize the real estate market and enhance residents' income, which are crucial for sustaining consumption growth [10][11] - Looking ahead, the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to focus on maintaining a GDP growth target of around 4.5% to 5.3%, with an emphasis on structural reforms and social welfare improvements [14][15]