根据市场预期，将于周三公布的1月非农就业报告预计显示，美国雇主当月新增就业约6.9万人，失业率 料维持在4.4%。该报告还将包含历史修正数据，预计会对截至2025年3月的一年期非农就业数据作出较 大幅度的下调。 哈塞特还指出，用于衡量维持失业率稳定所需月度新增就业规模的"盈亏平衡就业增速"，目前已"明显 低于"前总统拜登任内水平。这一变化反映出，在人口结构和生产率发生变化的背景下，美国劳动力市 场的运行条件已出现调整。 智通财经APP获悉，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特周一表示，随着人口增长放缓，未来几个月 美国新增就业人数可能会低于过去一段时间的水平，但这并不意味着经济走弱。 哈塞特在接受采访时称，"在当前GDP保持较高增速的背景下，新增就业人数略有下降是可以预期 的。"他强调，若未来连续公布的就业数据低于市场以往的习惯水平，"不应因此恐慌"，原因在于人口 增速下降，而生产率增长"正在迅速上升"。 ...

| 2025 | | --- | | GDP+强城区排名 | | 2025 Callery 2024 增速 城市 | | 上海浦东 18769亿 17752 5.79 | | 136917 17 6.1% 100:00 | | 深圳市一丁 1、1、2亿 6.3% | | 北京朝 4.8% 200 1 | | 78917. 2843 5 5 0 天津滨海 | | 一日 手元 11 701712 889152 8.1% | | 服制福品 099.7 294912 7 | | 6314 C 汇泉西城 6038亿 4.6% | | 深圳龙岗 6096 Z 5901亿 3.3% | | 5632 Z 5186亿 8.6% 重庆两江 | 日前，有网民在网络平台发布视频称"2025年GDP十强城区排名中，滨海新区增速仅为0.6%"，引发网民 热议。 经核实，该数据不实，滨海新区已公布2025年地区生产总值增长为5%。 提醒：网络空间不是法外之地，广大网民应牢固树立法治观念，自觉遵守法律法规，不造谣、不信谣、 不传谣，及时关注官方权威消息，不传播未经证实信息，共同抵制网络谣言、维护清朗网络空间。 来源：互联网联合辟谣平台 ...

据外媒报道，印度经济调查预计2027财年GDP增速将在6.8%-7.2%区间。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

第四师经 编辑｜瑜见 31省份2025年 "成绩单"出炉 | 置假 | ■ GDP (万亿元) | ○ 增速(按不变价格计算) | | --- | --- | --- | | 广东 | 14.58 | 3.9% | | 江苏 | 14.24 | 5.3% | | 山东 | 10.32 | 5.5% | | 浙江 | 9.45 | 5.5% | | 四川 | 6.77 | 5.5% | | 河南 | 6.66 | 5.6% | | 湖北 | 6.27 | 5.5% | | 福建 | 6.02 | 5.0% | | 上海 | 5.67 | 5.4% | | 湖南 | 5.53 | 4.8% | | 安徽 | 5.30 | 5.5% | | 北京 | 5.21 | 5.4% | | 河北 | 4.93 | 5.6% | | 陕西 | 3.66 | 5.1% | | 江西 | 3.60 | 5.2% | | 重庆 | 3.38 | 5.3% | | 辽宁 | 3.32 | 3.7% | | 云南 | 3.28 | 4.1% | | F | 2.97 | 5.1% | | 内蒙古 2.67 | | 4.7% | | 山 ...

Core Insights - As of now, 30 provinces in China have disclosed their economic performance for 2025, with 17 provinces reporting GDP growth rates exceeding the national level of 5.0%, and Tibet achieving a growth rate of 7.0% [1] Economic Performance - Major economic provinces continue to act as "ballast stones" for the economy, with Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang maintaining top positions in total economic output [1] - Shandong's GDP has surpassed 10 trillion yuan for the first time, making it the third province in the country to cross this threshold [1] - Jiangsu has not yet disclosed its economic total and growth rate for 2025, but it is expected to exceed 14 trillion yuan according to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Regional Changes - There have been new changes in the regional economic landscape, with Chongqing surpassing Liaoning in total economic output compared to 2024, indicating further adjustments in inter-provincial economic rankings [1]

需求端三驾马车中，哪些因素可能支撑 2026 年一季度的经济表现？ 经济和市场会有开门红吗？20260127 摘要 预计 2026 年一季度实际 GDP 增速约为 5%左右，名义 GDP 增速约为 4.5%，GDP 平减指数为负 0.6%，较上一季度有所收窄，经济下行趋 势或将逆转。 投资是 2026 年一季度经济增长的关键驱动力，预计固定资产投资增速 将大幅回升，受益于政策支持和"十五"规划重大项目的前置。 预计 2026 年一季度消费将有所回升，商品消费增速预计提升至 3%- 4%，服务消费受益于春节效应和以旧换新补贴政策的推动。 当前货币政策强调高效灵活，降息降准概率较低，主要通过调整利率变 化速度来稳定汇率波动，除非二月数据超预期，否则短期内新增货币政 策工具可能性不大。 人民币汇率近期升值，央行主要通过调控节奏和波动率来稳定人民币兑 美元汇率，而非直接干预汇率方向。 2026 年财政政策预计更注重结构性调整，狭义赤字率维持在 4.0%左右， 广义赤字率可能下降，资金更多向科技创新和现代化产业体系倾斜。 2026 年资本市场前景乐观，股票最具潜力，关注 PPI 回升对企业盈利 的支撑，看好科技板块（人 ...

辽宁 33182.9 3.7% 32765.8 4.1% 云南 29727.5 广西 5.1% 26710 内蒙古 4.7% 25495.7 山西 4.0% 23562.2 贵州 4.9% 2.15万 新疆 5.5% 18539.82 天津 4.8% 16878 黑龙江 4.2% 14973.9 吉林 5.0% 13697.5 日詩 5.8% 8108.85 泡屋 4.0% 5696.49 宁夏 5.3% 4121.84 量海 4.1% 3031.89 西藏 7.0% 数据来源:各地统计局 新 京 报 2 贝壳财经 3 级读财经 注:广东、新疆暂未披露 小数点 ·大经济 经济总量详细数据 区域格局也出现新变化。与2024年相比，重庆经济总量实现对辽宁的超越，省际经济位次进一步调整。 截至目前，全国已有30个省份陆续披露2025年经济运行情况。从已公布数据看，17个省份GDP实际增速超过全国 5.0%的增速水平，其中西藏增速达到7.0%。 经济大省继续发挥"压舱石"作用。广东、山东、浙江等地经济总量稳居前列，其中山东地区生产总值首次突破10 万亿元，成为全国第三个GDP迈过10万亿元门槛的省份。江苏尚未披露20 ...

国内经济复苏动能不足则成为加元明显短板，基本面疲软持续限制其升值空间。2025年12月加拿大失业 率升至6.8%，创2021年非疫情时期新高，就业岗位结构失衡；居民消费信心指数连续三月下滑，企业 投资意愿受外部不确定性压制，央行预测2026年该国GDP增速仅1.1%。加拿大经济高度依赖对美出 口，外部需求端的波动直接冲击其出口产业与经济韧性，进一步制约加元表现。 美元兑加元日线级别仍处于前期高点1.3927以来的回落趋势，当前汇价重回1.3700下方并试探低位，上 方1.3800附近形成明显水平阻力区，无强宏观催化剂难以有效突破。下方需重点关注1.3641前低支撑 位，汇价已贴近该区域运行，继续下探空间收窄。 技术指标显示多空博弈进入胶着阶段，动能类指标未触发明确反转信号，呈现"跌不动但弹不高"的特 征，即便短期测试更低点，也难现持续性暴跌，整体震荡格局明确。 加元后续走势将由三大核心变量主导，市场需等待明确信号打破当前平衡：一是加拿大央行利率决议的 措辞导向，偏鸽或偏谨慎的表述将直接影响利率预期与加元吸引力；二是油价能否在61.10美元一线保 持韧性，地缘风险降温或供应过剩预期升温均可能削弱加元支撑；三是美 ...

作者 2026 年 1 月 26 日 日本央行按兵不动，地缘风险扰动全球市场 ——海外宏观周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） | | | 名称 | 2026/1/25 | 一周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 作者 | | 上证指数 | 4136 | 0.84% | 4.22% | | 东方金诚 研究发展部 | | 深证成指 | 14440 | 1.11% | 6.76% | | | | 标普 500 | 6916 | -0.35% | 1.02% | | 分析师 徐嘉琦 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49099 | -0.53% | 2.15% | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23501 | -0.06% | 1.12% | | 执行总监 冯琳 | 股市 | 英国富时 100 | 10143 | -0.90% | 2.14% | | | | 德国 DAX | 24901 | -1.57% | 1.68% | | | | 法国 CAC40 | 8143 | -1.40% | -0.08% | | | | 日经 225 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report] - Dollar Index Drops, Non-ferrous Sector Oscillates Higher [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling, Lin Jingyan Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The dollar index has declined, leading to an oscillating upward trend in the non-ferrous sector [1] - For copper, short - term price pressure exists due to the US delaying new tariffs on key mineral imports, but the decline is limited due to the falling dollar index and improved market sentiment [8] - For zinc, the fundamental contradictions are insufficient, and its price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, suggesting a high - selling and low - buying strategy [95] - For nickel and stainless steel, due to factors such as potential supply shortages in Indonesia and shipping incidents in the Philippines, nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level, with attention to potential risks such as short - squeeze in near - month contracts [198][199] Group 4: Summary by Section 4.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The dollar index is at 97.5, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a weekly decline of 1.88%, and an annual decline of 0.78%. The exchange rate CNH is 6.9642, with a daily increase of 0.02%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, and an annual decline of 0.35% [6] - Most non - ferrous metals show varying degrees of price changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the price of lithium carbonate has a significant increase, with a daily increase of 7.55%, a weekly increase of 24.16%, and an annual increase of 49.30% [6] 4.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: China's 2025 GDP growth meets expectations, and recent domestic policies may improve domestic demand. The US has some policy stances that affect market risk appetite, and the dollar index is under pressure [8] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreases, the port inventory slightly increases, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 is set at 0 [8] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore slightly expands, while the profit of those using long - term contracts increases [8] - **Demand End**: The downstream demand is released as the copper price falls, and the operating rate of refined copper rods increases [8] - **Inventory**: Global copper inventories increase significantly [8] - **Investment View**: The copper price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low levels [8] 4.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The macro - sentiment is complex, with geopolitical disturbances and central bank policy expectations affecting the market [95] - **Raw Material End**: The average domestic processing fee remains stable, the imported processing fee continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ore may be affected by geopolitical risks [95] - **Smelting End**: The domestic zinc ingot production continues to shrink, and the average loss per ton of zinc for smelters narrows slightly [95] - **Demand End**: The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, and the procurement is mainly for rigid needs [95] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and LME inventory of zinc ingots both show a slight increase [95] - **Investment View**: The zinc price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [95] 4.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Macro Factors**: The US PCE inflation data meets expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged. The Chinese central bank may implement further policies. Indonesia's policies increase concerns about nickel supply [198][199] - **Raw Material End**: The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is firm, the rainfall in the Philippine production area affects transportation, and the domestic port inventory of nickel ore is decreasing [198][199] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel and nickel - iron may increase, and the production of stainless steel is expected to rise in January [198][199] - **Demand End**: The social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The demand for new energy is affected by the production schedule of precursor enterprises [198][199] - **Inventory**: Global nickel inventories are increasing [198] - **Investment View**: Nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances and potential short - squeeze risks [198][199]