北京时间周四凌晨两点，美联储如期宣布进行2025年的首次降息。 与市场预期一致，联邦公开市场委员会将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，调整至4.00%-4.25%。 （来源：美联储） 如同鲍威尔8月讲话那般，经严格审核的决议也通过措辞变化着重体现美国劳动力市场风险，同时也点出通胀上行的两难局面。 （来源：美联储决议对比） 与7月类似，9月决议也出现了反对票——周二刚来美联储兼职的白宫经济顾问米兰要求降息50个基点。 随政策决议一同发布的点阵图也显示，美联储官员们目前的中位预期是2025年还有两次各25个基点的降息。不出意外，点阵图上也出现了 刺眼的"白宫降息呼声"。 决议指出，近期指标显示，今年上半年经济活动的增长有所放缓。就业增长速度减慢，失业率小幅上升但仍处于低位。通胀有所上升，并 保持在相对较高的水平。委员会关注双重使命两方面的风险，并判断就业方面的下行风险有所增加。考虑到风险平衡的变化，委员会决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 （美联储官员对2025年底时的政策利率展望"点阵图"） 经济预期方面，较6月时的预期，美联储官员们整体预期GDP增速小幅抬高（2025年1.4%→1.6%、2026 ...

Supply and Demand Analysis - In August, industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July, while the service production index increased by 5.6%, down from 5.8%[4] - External demand weakened with exports growing by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in July, and below the expected 5.9%[4] - Domestic demand also declined, with retail sales growing by 3.4%, unchanged from July, and below the expected 3.8%[4] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) showed a cumulative growth of 0.5%, down from 1.6% in July, with monthly growth dropping from -5.2% to -6.3%[6] Economic Outlook - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to lead to three outcomes: GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%[4] - Strong supply relative to weak demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery[4] - Historically, if demand does not strengthen, supply will follow suit, indicating greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3[4] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing remains a key driver of production resilience, with its added value growing by 9.3% year-on-year in August[4] - The restaurant sector showed a rebound in consumption, with retail sales in this category growing by 2.1%, up from 1.1% in July[5] - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure and real estate continued to decline, with infrastructure investment dropping from -1.9% to -6.4% and real estate investment from -17.2% to -19.4%[6]

Core Insights - Brazil's GDP reached 3.2 trillion reais (approximately 583.6 billion USD) in Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% and a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, slightly above expectations [1] Economic Performance - The value added by the services sector was 1.9 trillion reais, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6% and a year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - The industrial sector's value added was 638 billion reais, showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.5% and a year-on-year growth of 1.1% [1] - The agricultural sector's value added was 239.1 billion reais, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.1% but a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [1] Consumption and Investment - Household consumption expenditure increased by 2.2% year-on-year, while government consumption expenditure grew by 0.7% [1] - Gross fixed capital formation saw a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [1] Trade Dynamics - Exports and imports of goods and services grew by 1.6% and 9% year-on-year, respectively [1] Economic Challenges - Analysts attribute the weak GDP growth in Q2 to high interest rates and a slowdown in agricultural growth, with federal government fiscal stimulus measures beginning to lose effectiveness [1]

中国2025年上半年的GDP增速达到了5.3%，数字非常ok，但大家的体感似乎并不太ok，为什么会有这 样的反差呢？ 咱们今天就来梳理一下：今年的中国经济，有什么重点方向、有什么问题、又准备怎么 应对？ ...

亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型预计美国第三季度GDP增速为3.5%，此前预计为2.2%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

央视记者当地时间8月29日获悉，美国7月份贸易逆差大幅扩大22.1%，达到1036亿美元，远超市场预期 的894.5亿美元，显示第三季度贸易可能对经济增长形成显著拖累。 美国商务部普查局数据显示，7月进口额猛增186亿美元至2815亿美元，而出口额小幅下降1亿美元至 1780亿美元。 此外亚特兰大联邦储备银行目前预计，美国第三季度GDP增速将放缓至2.2%。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 was revised up to 3.3%, higher than the initial estimate of 3%[12] - Corporate investment expanded at a rate of 5.7% in Q2, following a surge in Q1[12] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.14% to close at 3843.6 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.25%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.81% to 24998.82 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.94%[1] Legal and Regulatory Developments - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit against Trump regarding her dismissal, claiming it undermines the independence of the Fed[12] - The US Trade Representative extended certain exemptions from tariffs on China, originally set to expire on August 31, 2025, now extended to November 29, 2025[12] Sector Highlights - The TMT sector continued to show strong performance, particularly in semiconductors, which led the gains[1] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong experienced a continued high-level correction[1]

B02·深城记 ...

GDP - Dongguan's various towns and streets have effectively continued the gradual economic recovery trend observed since last year in the first half of 2025 [2] - Dongkeng, Xiegang, and Gaobu ranked as the top three in GDP growth [2] Foreign Trade - Tangxia achieved the highest foreign trade import and export growth rate at 184% [3] Consumption - Dongcheng led in retail sales growth with a total increase of 15.9% [3] Fixed Investment - Tangxia also ranked first in the city for fixed asset investment driving rate [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy and its current state, particularly in August 2025, highlighting a slowdown in economic growth while liquidity and consumption policies support market sentiment [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth Forecast**: The GDP growth rate for Q3 is expected to decline to approximately 4.5% year-on-year, influenced by a high base effect and a slowdown from 7.2% in July to a range of 5-6% in August [1][2]. - **Container Ship Decline**: High-frequency data indicates a continued decline in the number of container ships from China to the U.S., reflecting ongoing economic contraction [1][2]. - **Consumer Spending**: Despite the government allocating 69 billion RMB for consumption incentives, sales of automobiles and online home appliances have significantly dropped, indicating potential issues with the implementation of these funds [1][2]. - **Real Estate Impact**: The ongoing downturn in the real estate market is contributing to negative wealth effects, which may further dampen consumer confidence [1][2]. - **Liquidity Improvement**: The Morgan Stanley liquidity index has turned positive since June, indicating an improvement in liquidity available for financial investments [2][8]. - **A-Share Market Inflows**: An estimated 1.5 to 1.7 trillion RMB has flowed into the A-share market in the first half of the year, with two-thirds coming from insurance companies due to regulatory changes [2][25]. - **Household Deposits**: There has been a significant drop in new household deposits, suggesting a shift of funds towards the stock market [2][25]. Policy and Regulatory Insights - **Government Consumption Policies**: Recent government measures to stimulate consumption reflect a strategic response to structural economic challenges, with a focus on the sustainability of these policies [3][8]. - **Energy Sector Regulation**: The government plans to implement comprehensive reforms in the domestic oil refining industry, potentially phasing out outdated production capacities [3][8]. - **Central Bank Liquidity Management**: The central bank's liquidity management is shifting towards a neutral stance, emphasizing credit quality over market liquidity support [8][23]. Additional Important Points - **Market Leverage**: The current leverage in the stock market remains within reasonable limits, reducing the likelihood of immediate policy intervention [8][32]. - **Monitoring Indicators**: Continuous monitoring of market leverage and liquidity indicators is essential to assess potential risks in the financial system [8][32]. - **Consumer Confidence**: The combination of weak weather conditions and fiscal pulse reduction may affect the sustainability of any recovery in consumer spending [1][16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China and the implications for investment strategies.