Group 1: Market Overview - The market showed weakness with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, Shenzhen Component down 0.58%, and ChiNext down 0.66% as of 9:38 AM on December 16 [1] - Retail concepts were active, with Baida Group achieving four consecutive trading limits, and other companies like Hongqi Chain and Dongbai Group also seeing gains [1] - The dairy industry saw a resurgence, with Huangshi Group hitting a trading limit and achieving two consecutive trading limits, while companies like Huanlejia and Sunshine Dairy also rose [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Everbright Securities anticipates a favorable cross-year market for A-shares due to new policy deployments, which are expected to support economic growth and attract capital inflows [2] - Huaxi Securities notes that recent meetings have supported market risk appetite, with expectations for increased trading activity and investment in growth sectors like domestic substitution and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - Oriental Securities emphasizes the importance of core technology sectors that are trending upwards, while also noting the market's structural volatility as it approaches the end of the year [4]

政策方面，中央经济工作会议提出"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，明确延续"更加积极的财政政策"和"适度 宽松的货币政策"；此外，两部门部署优化集中式新能源发电企业市场报价，规范电力市场运行秩序。经 济金融数据方面，11月末社会融资规模存量同比增长8.5%，金融总量合理增长；扩内需政策措施继续显 效，11月CPI同比上涨0.7%；此外，11月我国货物贸易进出口3.9万亿元，连续10个月保持同比增长。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股主要宽基指数大多收涨 本周A股主要宽基指数大多收涨。从主要宽基指数来看，本周A股主要宽基指数大多收涨，仅上证指数、 上证50、沪深300下跌，其余指数均收涨，其中，创业板指、科创50、中证500涨幅居前。从估值来看，当 前科创5 ...

Weekend Major Events - AI trading concerns were triggered by Broadcom's disappointing sales guidance, leading to an 11% drop in its stock and a 5% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, marking the largest drop in months. This anxiety was initially sparked by Oracle, which saw its stock decline due to rising capital expenditures and delays in data center projects [2] - The Central Financial Office's Han Wenshu announced that China's economic indicators for 2025 are expected to exceed expectations, with a projected GDP of around 140 trillion yuan. Incremental policies will be implemented in 2026 based on changing circumstances [4] - The government is encouraging local business departments to utilize existing funding channels to promote consumption, emphasizing collaboration with financial support to stimulate consumer potential [5] - The People's Bank of China reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain financial market stability, focusing on promoting economic growth and reasonable price recovery [6] - SpaceX's valuation has reached $800 billion, with plans for an IPO in 2026, indicating serious preparations for public listing [7] - The National Medical Insurance Administration aims to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within policy scope by 2026, contingent on the fund's capacity [8] - Moutai plans to halt the issuance of off-plan quotas this year and reduce non-standard products next year, focusing on core products [9] - More threads regarding idle fundraising cash management by Moer Technology clarified that it will not affect project implementation [10] - Vanke's three extension proposals were not approved, but there is a five-day grace period for negotiations [11] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau supports stabilizing the real estate market and aims to create a new development model for real estate [12] Major Securities Firms' Latest Insights - CITIC Securities suggests a focus on both domestic and foreign demand, indicating that while external demand may face challenges, internal demand shows increasing potential for recovery [14] - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that the macro environment has reverted, but upward space for A-shares remains limited due to concerns over tech capital expenditures [15] - Guojin Securities emphasizes that fluctuations in financial market expectations will not halt the real economy's progress, and investors should focus on fundamental changes [17] - CITIC Jiantou believes that the market has completed its adjustment phase and anticipates a new wave of market activity driven by structural trends and capital market reforms [18] - Xinda Securities discusses the sustainability of the growth sector's rebound, suggesting that the current environment may limit the rebound potential of tech stocks [19] - Dongfang Caifu advises caution regarding external disturbances and suggests patience in market positioning, especially with upcoming economic data releases [20] - Huazhong Securities highlights the importance of turnover rates in assessing the growth sector's market opportunities [21][22] - Huaxi Securities recommends low-cost positioning for the upcoming cross-year market, supported by recent key meetings and improved market sentiment [23] - Dongwu Securities notes that the market is currently stabilizing after previous adjustments, with a focus on policy and data in the upcoming spring market [24] - Everbright Securities anticipates a favorable cross-year market supported by new policy deployments, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [25]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a cross-year rally supported by new policy deployments, with a focus on maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range and enhancing market confidence through policy incentives [4][22][26] - Major A-share indices mostly rose this week, with the ChiNext Index, Sci-Tech 50, and CSI 500 leading in gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 saw declines [1][13][15] - The current valuation levels of indices such as Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A are relatively high, with their PE (TTM) percentile ranks exceeding 80% as of December 12, 2025 [1][14][27] Group 2 - The central economic work conference emphasized a stable yet progressive approach, continuing with a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support domestic economic growth [2][42][26] - Economic data shows that the social financing scale increased by 8.5% year-on-year as of the end of November, indicating reasonable growth in financial totals, while the CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year [43][44] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with TMT likely to lead in a liquidity-driven market, while advanced manufacturing may take precedence in a fundamentals-driven market [32][38][4] Group 3 - The report indicates a significant divergence in industry performance, with sectors such as telecommunications, defense, and electronics showing strong gains, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate faced declines [15][54] - The market is currently experiencing notable volatility due to a combination of domestic and international events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the release of key economic data [3][18][45] - Historical patterns suggest that the A-share market tends to perform well in the opening years of the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, indicating a potential for positive performance in 2026 as well [26][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing popularity of the dividend low-volatility strategy, particularly the dividend low-volatility ETF fund (159547), which has seen a net inflow rate of 14.27% over the past five trading days as of December 11, 2025 [1] - Zhongyuan Securities suggests that the easing of China-US trade relations and the upcoming key policy meetings, such as the Central Economic Work Conference, will influence market risk appetite [1] - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, emphasizing the defensive value of dividend assets due to a decline in market turnover and a cautious risk preference among investors [1] Group 2 - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and artificial intelligence sectors have become increasingly attractive for investment following a valuation correction in November [1] - A balanced barbell strategy is proposed as a suitable current allocation strategy, reflecting the dual focus on defensive dividend assets and the potential of TMT and AI sectors [1] - The low fee of 20 basis points for the dividend low-volatility ETF fund (159547) continues to attract investor attention [1]

Core Insights - The ETF market has seen a resurgence with five products achieving over 100% annual returns as of December 9, 2025, particularly in the technology sector, including communication equipment and artificial intelligence [1][10]. Performance Overview - The top-performing ETFs with over 100% returns include: - Guotai CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF: 122.27% return, 12.45 billion in size, 6.32 years since inception, maximum drawdown of -28.87% [2][11]. - Fuguo CSI Communication Equipment Theme ETF: 111.21% return, 1.04 billion in size, 1.45 years since inception, maximum drawdown of -23.98% [2][11]. - Southern Growth Enterprise Board AI ETF: 110.15% return, 2.57 billion in size, 0.63 years since inception, maximum drawdown of -14.55% [2][11]. - Huabao Growth Enterprise Board AI ETF: 104.57% return, 3.36 billion in size, 1.01 years since inception, maximum drawdown of -31.52% [2][11]. - Guotai Growth Enterprise Board AI ETF: 100.38% return, 0.55 billion in size, 0.71 years since inception, maximum drawdown of -18.13% [2][11]. Fund Management Insights - The Fuguo CSI Communication Equipment Theme ETF, managed by Su Huaqing, has shown strong growth with a total return of 149.10% since inception and an annualized return of 87.49% [5][14]. - The fund's current size is 1.04 billion, and its investment strategy focuses on AI computing infrastructure [6][14]. Portfolio Composition - As of Q3 2025, the fund's top holdings include: - Xinyi Technology: 159.66 million, 436,500 shares, increased by 476.31% [7][15]. - Zhongji Xuchuang: 158.12 million, 391,700 shares, increased by 473.81% [7][15]. - ZTE Corporation: 64.58 million, 1,415,088 shares, increased by 472.91% [7][15]. - Other significant holdings include Tianfu Communication, Unisplendour, and AVIC Optoelectronics, with substantial increases in shareholding [8][16]. Market Trends - The market has responded positively to policies such as the commencement of major projects and the "anti-involution" strategy, leading to a recovery in undervalued cyclical sectors [8][16]. - The technology growth sector, particularly TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), has significantly outperformed the market, with a focus on AI and new energy sectors [8][16].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the ChiNext Index down 0.21%. Consumer electronics, Nvidia concepts, and nuclear pollution sectors saw gains, while innovative drugs, precious metals, and robotics sectors experienced declines [1] - According to GF Securities, large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-cap stocks in December, with a phase of dividend style dominance. The financial sector showed significant average gains, driven by asset rebalancing among institutions as the year-end assessment period approaches [1] - Open Source Securities suggests that the market correction has paused, and it is advisable to position for the upcoming spring rally, focusing on the dual drivers of technology and cyclical sectors. Opportunities in underperforming growth industries such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, and power equipment have emerged [2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities indicates a clear trend of capital inflow into the A-share market, with a focus on the TMT sector and upstream resource products. The upcoming annual report season is expected to attract funds, particularly in the computing power sector, which has relatively certain performance [3] - The mid-term trend is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to trade within the range of 3850-3950 points this month. Key areas of focus include TMT, upstream resources, AI supply chains, and military aerospace sectors [3]

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股市场出现回暖 受市场风险偏好抬升影响，本周A股市场出现上涨。受市场情绪好转、风险偏好抬升影响，本周A股市场 出现上涨，主要宽基指数大多上涨。在主要宽基指数中，创业板指表现最好，涨跌幅为1.9%，而科创50表 现最差，涨跌幅为-0.1%。目前万得全A估值处于2010年以来85.7%分位数。 行业方面，有色金属、通信、国防军工表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一级行业涨跌互现。有色金 属、通信、国防军工等行业表现相对较好，涨跌幅分别达到了5.3%、3.7%、2.8%。相比之下，传媒、房 地产、美容护理等行业表现相对靠后，涨跌幅分别达到了-3.9%、-2.2%、-2.0%。 本周重要事件 经济数据方面，国内11月PMI数据公 ...

2025 年 12 月 6 日 策略研究 国内外利好共振，市场有所回暖 ——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 1 期） 要点 本周 A 股市场出现回暖 受市场风险偏好抬升影响，本周 A 股市场出现上涨。受市场情绪好转、风险偏 好抬升影响，本周 A 股市场出现上涨，主要宽基指数大多上涨。在主要宽基指 数中，创业板指表现最好，涨跌幅为 1.9%，而科创 50 表现最差，涨跌幅为-0.1%。 目前万得全 A 估值处于 2010 年以来 85.7%分位数。 行业方面，有色金属、通信、国防军工表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一 级行业涨跌互现。有色金属、通信、国防军工等行业表现相对较好，涨跌幅分别 达到了 5.3%、3.7%、2.8%。相比之下，传媒、房地产、美容护理等行业表现 相对靠后，涨跌幅分别达到了-3.9%、-2.2%、-2.0%。 本周重要事件 政策及会议方面，国家航天局设立商业航天司、特朗普或于明年初公布新任美联 储主席提名人选等。国家航天局已于近期设立商业航天司，相关业务正在逐步开 展，标志着我国商业航天产业迎来专职监管机构；美国总统特朗普 12 月 2 日在 白宫举行的内阁会议上说，他很可能在 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry is expressing concerns about Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), indicating potential volatility in its stock price despite its current stability [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - The analyst has over two decades of experience in the market, particularly in the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors [1] - The focus has been on risk mitigation through various market events, including the dot-com bubble, the 2008 credit default crisis, and the recent AI boom [1] - The analyst emphasizes a strategy centered around momentum in investment decisions [1]