市场维持震荡， 主动权益基金向哑铃型配置迁移 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W39） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 28 日 截至 2025/9/26，主动权益型基金的平均仓位约为 90.31%。其中，普通股 票型基金的平均仓位约为 92.51%（较上周下降 0.13pct），偏股混合型基金 的平均仓位约为 91.14%（较上周下降 0.02pct），配置型基金的平均仓位约 为 88.03%（较上周下降 0.45pct）；"固收+"基金平均仓位约为 23.27%， 较上周下降 0.21pct。 近三月公募基金上调大盘成长配置比例。截至 2025/9/26，主动偏股型基 金大盘成长仓位 32.35%（较上周上升 0.24pct），大盘价值仓位 9.73%（较 上周下降 0.61pct），中盘成长仓位 6.73%（较上周下降 0.36pct），中盘价 值仓位 8.35%（较上周下降 0.3pct），小盘成长仓位 36 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 政策及会议方面，中方将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇，LPR利率维持不变。中方在世贸当前和未来谈判中 将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇；国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列新闻发布会介绍金融业发展成 就；9月LPR保持不变，1年期3.0%，5年期以上3.5%；国务院食安办等部门正积极推进预制菜国家标准制 定和餐饮环节使用明示。 中美关系方面，近期双方互动频繁，关系整体保持稳定。近期，国务院副总理何立峰会见美国国会众议员 代表团；王毅会见美国国会众议员代表团；商务部部长王文涛召开部分在美中资企业圆桌会；我国商务部 将3家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单。 产业方面，稳增长政策有所推进，多家企业召开发布会。五部门发布钢铁行业稳增长方案；20 ...

重要新闻提示 财经新闻 1. 国家统计局9月27日发布数据显示，1至8月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额46929.7亿元，同 比增长0.9%。8月份规模以上工业企业利润实现两位数的同比增长，由7月份下降1.5%转为增长20.4%， 工业企业当月利润改善明显。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，1至8月份，在宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推 进，叠加去年同期低基数等多重因素作用下，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.9%，装备制造业支撑 有力，不同规模企业利润均有所改善。 2. 据新华社9月27日报道，综合媒体和相关监管机构日前公布的信息，德国宝马集团将召回超过33万辆 汽车，原因是起动机及相关部件可能存在短路隐患。此次宝马召回计划中，在德国有超过13万辆汽车受 影响。宝马尚未公布全球召回数量，但考虑到这次召回涉及的是2015年9月至2021年9月生产的多款车 型，影响的范围可能覆盖更多国家，实际召回规模可能超过已公布的数字。 1至8月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额46929.7亿元，同比增长0.9% 9月28日，腾讯混元发布新一代生图模型 德国宝马集团将召回超过33万辆汽车 今日提示 国务院 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, influenced by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the STAR 50 index rising by 6.5% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2% [1][9][10] - The overall valuation of the Wind All A index is currently at a historically moderate to high level since 2010 [1][9][10] - Market style has shifted towards growth, with large-cap growth stocks increasing by 2.5% while small-cap value stocks decreased by 0.8% [1][12][19] Group 2 - Recent policy developments include the maintenance of the LPR rates at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with no new special treatment sought by China in WTO negotiations [2][17][18] - The steel industry has received a growth stabilization plan from five departments, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% from 2025 to 2026 [2][21] - Major tech events include the 2025 Yunqi Conference where Alibaba Cloud showcased innovations, and Huawei's launch of new electric vehicle models, indicating ongoing advancements in the TMT sector [2][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market fluctuations align with historical patterns, with potential adjustments expected to narrow the market's upward movement to 6%-7% [3][23] - The logic supporting the current bull market remains intact, with expectations for continued stability in the economic fundamentals and a favorable environment for TMT sectors [3][24][33] - The TMT sector is anticipated to be a key focus for mid-term investments, driven by liquidity and recent positive developments in the industry [3][37][45]

转自：证券时报 人民财讯9月27日电，光大证券研报认为，节后A股市场有望继续上行。历史来看，国庆节后随着市场 交易热度的回暖，市场通常表现较好。对于本轮行情而言，支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑并没有发生变化， 市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现明显透支，预计节后市场大概率将重新回到上行区间。配置方向 上，建议重点关注TMT主线。流动性驱动行情下，行情中期TMT更容易成为主线，本轮或许也会如 此。TMT板块当前存在较多催化，如产业趋势持续有进展、美联储降息周期开启等，自身也存在上行 动力。从近期板块轮动的情况来看，TMT已经有所占优，未来行情或将延续。 ...

Market Overview - In September, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, with most major A-share indices showing an upward trend, particularly the ChiNext Index, while the SSE 50 Index experienced the largest decline [4] - The Hong Kong stock market showed a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by the overseas interest rate cuts and improved domestic risk appetite, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 12.4% [4] A-share Insights - The market is expected to continue its upward trend after the National Day holiday, supported by historical trends of increased trading activity post-holiday and reasonable market valuations [5] - The TMT sector is recommended as a key focus for investment, driven by liquidity and various catalysts such as ongoing industrial trends and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [5] Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to support a continued upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market, which has strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations [6] - A "barbell" strategy is suggested for investment, focusing on sectors like self-controllable technology, high-end manufacturing, and high-dividend low-volatility stocks such as telecommunications and utilities [6]

Market Overview - In September, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 12.0%, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of 0.8% [1][8]. - The Hong Kong market also saw an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 12.4% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 5.6% as of September 25, 2025 [1][11]. A-share Insights - The market is expected to continue its upward trend post-National Day, supported by stable economic fundamentals and reasonable market valuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE-TTM at 16.5 times [2][14]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is recommended as a key focus area, driven by liquidity and various catalysts such as advancements in AI and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][16][17]. Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, supported by strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations, particularly in sectors like technology and new consumption [3][18]. - A "barbell" investment strategy is suggested, focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic policies in the context of US-China relations, as well as high-dividend, low-volatility stocks in telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][18]. Stock Recommendations - For October 2025, the recommended A-share stocks include SMIC, Cambricon, Hikvision, Aolai Technology, Huayou Cobalt, Sany Heavy Industry, Haier Smart Home, China Merchants Bank, China Merchants Shekou, and Shanghai Lingang [3][20]. - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for October 2025 include Alibaba, Baidu, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Xindong Company [3][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of momentum in navigating the technology landscape, particularly in the context of past market events and the current AI boom [1]. Group 1: Market Experience - The author has over two decades of experience in the market, specifically focusing on the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors [1]. - The author has navigated significant market events such as the dot-com bubble, the credit default crisis of 2008, and the recent surge in artificial intelligence [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The primary focus of the author's investment strategy revolves around risk mitigation and identifying momentum within the market [1].

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices showed mixed performance during the week of September 15-19, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% [4] - In terms of sectors, coal, power equipment, and electronics industries had the highest gains, while banking, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market saw increased activity, with 63 new funds established, totaling 748.28 billion units issued. This included 27 bond funds, 27 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 REIT [5] - A total of 31 new funds were issued across the market, with 21 being equity funds, 4 FOF funds, 4 mixed funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Various industry-themed funds exhibited volatile and divergent performance, with TMT theme funds continuing to show a net value increase of 2.56%, while financial and real estate theme funds saw a notable decline [6] - As of September 19, 2025, the performance of different themed funds was as follows: New Energy (2.07%), National Defense and Military Industry (1.50%), Balanced Industry (0.92%), Rotation Industry (0.49%), Consumption (-0.53%), Cyclical (-1.63%), Pharmaceutical (-2.41%), and Financial Real Estate (-2.68%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of funds, while Hong Kong stock ETFs maintained significant inflows. Specifically, stock ETFs had a median return of 0.03% with a net inflow of 77.93 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs recorded a median return of 0.84% with a net inflow of 166.52 billion yuan, and cross-border ETFs had a median return of 1.56% with a net inflow of 1.227 billion yuan [8] Fund Positioning Monitoring - The estimated equity positioning of actively managed funds decreased by 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous week. Increased allocations were observed in the automotive, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors, while banking, pharmaceutical, and agriculture sectors saw reduced allocations [9] ESG Financial Products Tracking - A total of 34 new green bonds were issued this week, with a cumulative issuance scale of 379.48 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a total issuance scale of 4.82 trillion yuan and 4,153 bonds issued as of September 19, 2025 [10] - The median net value changes for ESG funds were as follows: active equity funds (1.42%), passive equity index funds (0.21%), and bond ESG funds (0.04%). Funds focused on climate change, low-carbon economy, and carbon neutrality showed significant performance advantages [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to be volatile, with a focus on sectors such as robotics, new energy in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, chemicals, securities, and internet stocks in Hong Kong [2][4] Industry Insights - **Robotics**: Domestic production capacity for industrial robots is rapidly expanding, with a cumulative production of 447,100 units from January to July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.9%. Service robots also saw a cumulative production of 10,378,300 units, up 23.6% year-on-year. The acceleration of Tesla's Optimus project is a significant catalyst for the sector [4][5] - **New Energy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the elimination of "involution" competition among new energy companies, leading to an increase in multi-crystalline silicon prices from 35,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, which is expected to improve profitability for photovoltaic companies. The global deployment of battery energy storage systems is projected to grow by 54% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 86.7 GWh [5] - **Chemicals**: The supply-demand dynamics in the chemical industry are expected to improve, with significant room for valuation recovery. The Central Financial Committee's emphasis on addressing "involution" and promoting orderly competition is likely to enhance the competitive landscape [5] - **Securities**: The securities sector is benefiting from a recovery in market risk appetite, with IPO and refinancing volumes increasing by 17% and 59% year-on-year, respectively, in the first half of 2025. The growth in various brokerage services is expected to continue as the capital market undergoes reforms [5]