1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal, iron ore, and poly - silicon, while the top three decliners were rapeseed, TSR 20, and Chinese jujube [13][14][15]. - For coking coal, supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with short - term fluctuations [18][23]. - For crude oil, low - inventory and geopolitical concerns drive the price up, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - For lithium carbonate, supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal (up 3.8% with 1.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), iron ore (up 2.4% with 1.3% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and poly - silicon (up 2.1% with 19.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [13][15]. - The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 1.8% with 17.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), TSR 20 (down 1.2% with 5.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Chinese jujube (down 1.1% with 5.6% month - on - month increase in open interest) [14][15]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Coking Coal (焦煤) - On July 3, coking coal increased by 3.8% to 856 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern, with short - term fluctuations predicted [18][23]. - The central conference improved market sentiment. Some coal mines in Shanxi may suspend or limit production, while others are resuming production, but the overall supply recovery is slow. Import customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is low, and the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal is about to be lowered [19][20][23]. - Coke output is stable with a slight decrease, and rising costs squeeze coke enterprises' profits, with an expected further decline in the operating rate. Short - term rigid demand exists, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and upstream coal mines are destocking [21][23]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On July 3, crude oil increased by 1.6% to 506.3 yuan/barrel. Low - inventory and geopolitical concerns are the triggers for the price rise, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - OPEC's production in June increased by 360,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2.801 million barrels per day, with several countries including Saudi Arabia increasing production [27][29]. - The EIA inventory report shows an increase in total petroleum inventories. Also, due to the heatwave in Europe, there is an expectation of increased demand for oil - fired power generation [28][29]. 3.1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂) - On July 3, lithium carbonate increased by 0.9% to 64080 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. - Market sentiment is positive, with good demand production schedule expectations and low warehouse receipts. Supply shows a month - on - month increase in weekly output, domestic lithium mine production grows, but imported lithium salts may decline. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan [34][37][38]. - From January to June, domestic cathode material production maintained growth. July is a traditional off - season, but demand production schedule expectations are good, and leading enterprises show signs of purchasing. Social inventories accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventories are destocked, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions at highs [35][36][38]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观新闻) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to reports of the US President planning to visit China with a business delegation, stating no information to provide but hoping for joint efforts to promote China - US economic and trade relations [40][41]. - China's Caixin Services PMI for June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, with the prosperity level declining to the lowest since Q4 2024 [40][41]. - The US government lifted export restrictions on EDA to China, canceling some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software [40][41].

芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹，关注周末 OPEC+会议。消息称伊朗暂停与国 际原子能机构合作，地缘担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看， OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消 费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较 大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹 油价企稳，库存下降，液化气反弹。地缘担忧再起，成本端油价企稳反弹； 下游化工需求有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库存均 上升。策略：短线反弹，但上方受限，反弹偏空。PG【4200-4300】 L 空头反弹 现货涨价，华北基差为-64（环比+44），近期装置检修加强，新装置暂未 释放，供给压力边际缓解。LD、HD 进口窗口打开。需求淡季，下游刚需 拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等 合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产，中长期预期偏弱。策略：短期反弹思路对 待。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头反弹 出口毛利转正，低价成交略有放量，成本支撑好转，MTO 盘面利润同期 ...

Group 1: Digital Services Tax in Canada - Canada introduced a digital services tax aimed at global companies with annual revenues exceeding €750 million and Canadian digital service revenues over CAD 20 million, imposing a 3% tax on applicable revenues retroactive to 2022, projected to generate CAD 7.2 billion over five years [3] - The tax primarily targets major US tech companies such as Amazon, Google, and Meta, which are expected to be significantly impacted by this legislation [3] - Following pressure from the US, Canada announced the cancellation of the digital services tax just hours before it was set to take effect, indicating a willingness to negotiate with the US [3][4] Group 2: Hikvision's Operations in Canada - The Canadian government ordered Hikvision to cease operations, citing national security concerns based on a review under the Investment Canada Act, claiming that continued operations would harm national security [4] - Hikvision expressed strong opposition to the Canadian government's decision, arguing that the accusations lacked evidence and were influenced by geopolitical tensions rather than genuine security assessments [7] - The Canadian government's contrasting approaches towards the US and China reflect complex motivations, with economic dependence on the US influencing its decisions, while the actions against Hikvision align with US foreign policy towards China [9] Group 3: Economic and Political Implications - Canada’s economy is heavily reliant on the US market, with imports from the US totaling USD 349 billion and exports amounting to USD 413 billion, making it difficult for Canada to maintain a hardline stance against US trade threats [9] - The Canadian government may have initially sought to demonstrate strength through the digital services tax but ultimately chose to compromise to preserve overall relations with the US, which holds significant influence over Canada [9] - The differing responses to the US and China highlight the contradictions and challenges in Canada's foreign policy, raising questions about its ability to balance national interests with international relations [9]

【黄金期货最新行情】 宁证期货：美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征收20%关税，任何转运 货物将被征收40%的关税。另外，越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。评：关说谈判及相关制 裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡化，市场未来关注焦点是地缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指数再度 走弱，提振黄金，黄金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关注美元指数走势。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变， 短期震荡偏多，但上方空间有限。 本周早些时候，金价上涨超过2%，接近每盎司3345美元，市场将注意力转移到即将发布的就业报告 上，该报告预计将显示6月份经济增加10.6万个就业岗位，这将是四个月来的最低水平。 ADPResearch周三发布的另一份数据显示，美国企业就业人数出现两年多来首次下降，促使交易员加大 了对2026年前至少两次降息的押注。劳动力市场的明显恶化可能迫使官员们最早在本月降息，尽管美联 储主席鲍威尔强调了劳动力市场的弹性，并强调了评估关税对通胀影响的"观望"态度 【机构观点】 | 7月3日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹。消息称伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作，地缘 担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增 产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支 撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买 看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹偏空 油价企稳叠加化工利润改善，液化气反弹。油价重回基本面定价，短线企 稳；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 中性偏空，厂库和港口库存均有所上升。策略：反弹偏空，可轻仓试空。 PG【4150-4300】 L 空头盘整 社会库存转为累库，现货继续下跌。华北基差为-108（环比-59），LD、 HD 进口窗口打开。装置重启增多，预计本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。近期 上中游库存显著下滑，需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化 力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产， 中长期预期偏弱。策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 下游订单持续偏弱，基差走弱，出 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-03 欧洲极端天⽓来袭，能化延续震荡整理 欧洲正经历一场强烈的热浪，由于高压系统持续盘踞，法国和德国的 卫生当局已发布红色警报，法国的核电站运营已经受限，莱茵河水位也降 至历史偏低水平。往年的高温天气都通常会引发天然气、柴油的发电能源 的走高，当前欧美中质馏分库存普遍低位，这可能从情绪和边际需求上提 振中质馏分和原油价格，油化工亦有支撑。 板块逻辑： 国内商品市场周三整体有支撑，光伏玻璃业和钢铁行业传出了"反内 卷"倡议，并可能后期采取实际行动集体减产，这带来了黑色板块的大幅 反弹，对化工品也略有提振。化工本身变化寥寥，芳烃系列品种，苯乙烯 和PTA都出现了基差的逐步走弱；聚烯烃的基差本身就偏弱，本周以来也 仍在下滑。商品整体氛围的偏强对化工略有提振，但自身供需并未实质性 改变。 原油：地缘再有波澜，油价大幅攀升 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松，PG盘面或弱势震荡 沥青：沥青期价震荡，等待利空发酵 高硫燃油：高硫燃油利空仍待发酵 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油下跌 甲醇：内地港口分化，甲醇震荡 尿素：国内供强需弱格 ...

2025年1-5月份，中国自中东地区进口原油的占比份额为42.5%，较去年同期下降3.3个百分点，较过去 五年均值水平下降5.6个百分点；中国自亚太地区进口原油的占比份额为15.0%，较去年同期提升4.0个 百分点，较过去五年均值水平提升6.3个百分点。自南美地区进口原油的占比份额为10.1%，较去年同期 下降0.3个百分点，较过去五年均值水平提升0.9个百分点。 山东地炼一次常减压开工负荷50.74%，较上周下跌0.74个百分点。具体来看，本周华联进入检修期；昌 邑常减压装置开工，其他二次装置暂未开；京博负荷进一步提升；其他炼厂装置稳定。 【行情回顾】 截至7月3日，伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作，市场对地缘局势不稳定性的担忧浮现，国际油价上涨。 NYMEX原油期货08合约67.45涨2.00美元/桶，环比+3.06%；ICE布油期货09合约69.11涨2.00美元/桶，环 比+2.98%。中国INE原油期货主力合约2508涨1.5至498.5元/桶，夜盘涨10.5至509元/桶。 【重要资讯】 建议观望为主，WTI上方阻力给到[67,68]，布伦特压力在[69,70]，SC在 [510,520]；期权端可以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose, driven by geopolitical events and trade progress, but fundamental factors restricted the increase. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, and the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted some demand expectations. However, OPEC+ planned production increases were digested, Saudi exports increased, US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, and gasoline demand was weak. The oil price broke through the previous trading range but lacked strong drivers, with a low probability of short - term unilateral trends. It is recommended to wait and see, with resistance levels for WTI at [67, 68], Brent at [69, 70], and SC at [510, 520]. Options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply - demand is tight in the short term due to maintenance expectations, high downstream loads, and new PTA production plans. However, as PXN recovers, some maintenance may be postponed, and weak terminal demand may limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with PX09 oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [6]. - **PTA**: In July, the maintenance of PTA devices is average, and new devices are stable. With expected downstream production cuts and weak terminal demand, supply - demand is turning loose. Although the low price is supported by raw materials, the absolute price is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, with a short - position allocation at the upper edge of the range and a rolling reverse spread for TA9 - 1 [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is increasing at home and abroad, and the supply - demand is gradually turning loose, with a possible inventory build - up from August to September. Domestic coal - based MEG plants are restarting, and overseas plants are also recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the seller of option EG2509 - C - 4450 exiting and a reverse spread for EG9 - 1 at high prices [6]. - **Short Fibre**: The supply - demand is weak. Although short - term prices are supported by raw materials due to expected production cuts and limited inventory pressure, weak downstream demand restricts the repair space of processing fees. PF is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, and the processing fees can be expanded at low levels [6]. - **Bottle Chips**: In July, due to the peak consumption season and production cuts by some plants, the supply - demand is expected to improve, and the processing fees are bottoming out. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 at low prices and attention to expanding processing fees at the lower edge of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Urea The increase in urea futures prices is mainly driven by improved demand expectations, including seasonal agricultural demand, marginal improvement in industrial demand, and positive market sentiment from export tenders. Although supply - side device maintenance provides some support, overall supply growth restricts the upside. The supply - demand may further improve, and the short - term price may have upward potential depending on the tender results [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - side optimization expectation boosts market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits lead to high production, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. The price may rebound at a low level under strong macro sentiment, but the momentum depends on spot market follow - up [38]. - **PVC**: The supply - side optimization policy is beneficial in the long - term, but short - term supply - demand contradictions are still prominent. The real - estate demand is dragging, and overseas factors may affect exports. PVC has a fundamental basis for a rebound, but the near - term upside is limited, and the long - term effect depends on policy implementation [38]. Methanol Port inventory build - up, Iranian plant restarts, and MTO device shutdowns increase the pressure on port prices, and the port basis weakens rapidly. The inland market is affected by high production and weak demand in the off - season, but more maintenance plans in July will relieve some supply pressure. Overall, the price has limited upside and downside, and interval operations are recommended [41]. Styrene The pure benzene market first declined and then rebounded at a low level. The styrene market in East China was stable, with a strong basis price as the paper - cargo delivery approached. In the medium term, tariffs and subsidies may not drive terminal demand further. High styrene profits stimulate production, and supply - demand pressure may lead to valuation repair, which may rely on a decline in styrene prices. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene due to raw material resonance [51]. Polyolefins Cost - end valuation has recovered, but monomer prices are firm, squeezing the profit of the monomer - purchasing process. The supply of PP and PE is shrinking, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. Although the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, there is still overall pressure. In the short - term, support from de - stocking can be noted, and for PP, short positions can be considered when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 3, Brent rose 2.00 to 69.11 dollars/barrel, WTI fell 0.19 to 67.26 dollars/barrel, and SC rose 10.50 to 509.00 yuan/barrel. Most spreads changed, with Brent - WTI increasing by 0.19 to 1.85 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD declined slightly, while ICE Gasoil rose 15.25 to 741.50 dollars/ton. The cracking spreads of some refined oils changed, with the US gasoline cracking spread falling 0.08 to 21.63 dollars/barrel [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Products**: On July 2, POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other prices mostly declined, while short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices changed slightly [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX declined, and PX - related spreads also changed, such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices and spreads changed, with the spot price falling and the basis weakening. The processing fees also decreased [6]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, inventory, and开工率 changed. The inventory decreased, and the开工 rate of some plants changed [6]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: On July 2, futures prices rose, and spot prices in some regions changed slightly. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [10][11][14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production decreased, and the plant start - up rate decreased. The inventory in some areas decreased, and the number of enterprise orders decreased [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: On July 2, the prices of caustic soda and PVC spot and futures changed. For example, the price of SH2509 rose 33.0 to 2391.0 yuan/ton [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The opening rates of caustic soda and PVC plants changed, and the inventory of some products changed. The downstream opening rates of caustic soda and PVC also had corresponding changes [36][37][38]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 2, MA2509 and MA2601 prices rose, and the basis and regional spreads changed. For example, the太仓 basis fell 95 to 61 [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventory increased slightly, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream plants changed. The upstream enterprise start - up rate increased, while the downstream MTO device start - up rate decreased [41]. Styrene - **Upstream**: On July 2, the prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw materials changed. The pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha spreads also changed [49]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and month - spreads decreased [49]. - **Industry Chain**: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed. For example, the styrene start - up rate increased, and the integrated profit increased significantly [51]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: On July 2, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices rose, and the basis and month - spreads changed. The spot prices of some products also changed [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of PE and PP plants changed, and the inventory decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP also changed [55].

Core Viewpoint - BYD has suspended plans to build a large factory in Mexico due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policies [1][2] Group 1: Expansion Plans - BYD remains interested in expanding in the Americas but currently has no timeline for new investments [1] - The Bahia factory in Brazil is BYD's first factory outside Asia, with the first vehicle rolling off the production line on July 1 [1] - Once operational, the Bahia factory is expected to produce 150,000 vehicles annually, with plans to double capacity to 300,000 in about two years [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical factors significantly impact the automotive industry, prompting companies to rethink their strategies in other countries [1] - BYD is waiting for clearer geopolitical conditions before making further decisions regarding expansion [1] Group 3: Import Tax Considerations - BYD has requested a 12-month import tax exemption from the Brazilian government for the first phase of the factory, concerning the assembly of vehicle kits [2] - The company argues that imposing the same import tax on semi-assembled vehicles as on fully assembled cars would render the importation of semi-assembled vehicles impractical [2]