美总统特朗普签署新行政令，确定了对多个贸易伙伴征收的所谓"对等关税"，非洲竟然没有一个国家和美国达成贸易协议，但也正因如此，一个全新的可能 性诞生了。 其次，美国仍欲在非洲推行"美国优先"政策，特朗普声称对非洲加税是因为"美国商品在非洲遭遇高关税"，但实际上南非、尼日利亚、加纳对美关税均低于 10%，远称不上所谓的"不对等"。美方只不过是在找借口强迫非洲开放市场，同时打击非洲的汽车制造业、农业和矿产业，以保护本土企业。本质上这还是 单边霸凌行为。 然而，特朗普的动作造成的结果很有可能适得其反。CNN引述专家的话表示，特朗普可能白送了中国战略机遇。 今年6月，美国和全球的关税战打得如火如荼之际，中方宣布将对53个非洲建交国实施100%税目产品零关税。此举直接与美国形成了鲜明的对比，也在美国 和非洲这22个国家谈判破裂的今天，为非洲提供了新的选择。 报道援引尼日利亚经济学家的话称，作为非洲最大的双边贸易伙伴，中方的表态为非洲"开辟了一条绝境求生之路"，将促使非洲进一步向中国靠拢。南非研 究员莱茨瓦洛更是直截了当，他将美非谈崩直接描述为美国给中国"送分"，并提议非洲各国"完全转向中国，使其成长为下一个美国"，还表示 ...

Group 1 - Trump's second round of tariffs has elicited unexpected reactions from countries like Brazil, India, and Switzerland, leading to new uncertainties in global trade [1] - The 50% tariff imposed on Brazil is expected to increase prices for American consumers on popular products such as beef, cola, and hamburgers, while significantly impacting Brazil's export economy [5] - India's response to the 50% tariff includes halting new weapon and aircraft purchases from the U.S. and emphasizing its energy security needs, showcasing its independent foreign policy [5] - Switzerland's 39% tariff will heavily pressure its export-driven economy, particularly affecting companies like Pilatus, which has suspended aircraft deliveries to the U.S. due to increased costs [7] Group 2 - The high tariff policies aim to reduce trade deficits and protect U.S. manufacturing in the short term, but may lead to increased international trade friction and retaliatory measures from affected countries [9]

本周外盘看点 上周国际市场风云变幻，美国服务业扩张面临挑战，英国央行降息25个基点。美股全线走高，道指周涨 1.35%，纳指周涨3.73%，标普500指数周涨2.43%。欧洲三大股指涨跌互现，英国富时100指数周涨 2.58%，德国DAX 30指数周跌1.58%，法国CAC 40指数周跌1.72%。 本周看点颇多，据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普当地时间8月8日在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将与 俄罗斯总统普京于8月15日在阿拉斯加州举行会晤，更多细节将随后公布。 同时，美国最新通胀数据将受到密切关注，特别是在最近疲软的就业数据增加了降息概率后；美国零售 销售月率也将提供关税如何影响消费者的线索；投资者还将密切关注美国对多个经济体实施所谓"对等 关税"后有关谈判的任何进一步消息。在欧洲，英国央行降息后，英国二季度国内生产总值（GDP）数 据将受到关注，挪威央行将公布利率决议。 美股财报季临近尾声，中概股阿里巴巴、网易、京东等将发布财报。 美国公布关键通胀数据 国际金价触及历史新高后回落，此前有报道称白宫计划发布一项行政命令，澄清该国对金条关税的立 场。纽约商品交易所近月合约收于3397.28美元/盎司，周涨1. ...

Group 1: Trade Policy Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that tariffs may be reduced if trade imbalances improve, likening them to "melting ice" [1][2] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest since World War II, following the implementation of new tariffs on imports from Japan [1] - The primary goal of the Trump administration's tariff policy is to "rebalance" the current account deficit, which is projected to be $1.18 trillion by 2024, the largest among major economies [1] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Agreements - Bessent expressed optimism about completing trade negotiations with countries by the end of October [3] - The U.S. is using tariffs as a tool for diplomatic negotiations, particularly regarding Russia and India, with potential tariffs on Indian oil purchases reaching 50% [3] - The agreement with Japan is described as a "golden industrial partnership," with Japan agreeing to a 15% tariff and committing to a $550 billion investment plan [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - Bessent is expected to play a key role in selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair, emphasizing the need for market trust and the ability to analyze complex economic data [6] - Concerns were raised about the independence of monetary policy, which is crucial for economic stability and inflation expectations [6] - Bessent highlighted the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency through sound economic policies and attracting foreign direct investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The WTO predicts a 0.9% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff increase estimate of 2.7% [1] Trade Growth Factors - Asian economies are expected to be the largest positive contributors to global merchandise trade growth in 2025, although their contribution in 2026 will be lower than previously forecasted [2] - North America is projected to have a negative impact on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, but the negative effect this year will be less than previously estimated due to higher-than-expected early imports in the first quarter [2] - European contributions to trade growth have shifted from moderate positive to slightly negative for 2025, with energy-exporting economies also expected to see reduced positive contributions due to falling oil prices [2] Import and Export Trends - Europe’s exports and imports are projected to grow by -0.9% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the April forecast, while North American exports are expected to improve slightly to -4.2% [3] Tariff Impact on Trade - The WTO explains that the previous forecast of a 0.2% contraction in trade for 2025 was based on measures in effect as of April 14, including the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [4] - Following agreements between the U.S. and countries like the UK, the annual forecast was adjusted to 0.3%, but higher tariffs on steel and aluminum products brought the forecast back down to 0.1% [4] - The higher tariffs effective from August 7 are expected to increasingly pressure trade, although this will be offset by the positive effects of early procurement and inventory accumulation [4] Overall Trade Forecast - The WTO's improved forecast of 0.9% growth for 2025 is attributed to two positive factors and one negative factor: a significant increase in U.S. imports by 11% year-on-year due to early procurement and inventory buildup, and a more optimistic global macroeconomic outlook compared to April [5][6] - The early procurement is the main contributor to the updated forecast, with similar patterns observed in other countries due to concerns over retaliatory measures [6] - The recent tariff adjustments are expected to have an overall negative impact on global trade prospects, with the higher "reciprocal tariffs" expected to exert increasing pressure on U.S. imports and suppress exports from trade partners [6]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is reshaping global trade dynamics into a more pronounced zero-sum game, with significant implications for ASEAN countries and the broader multilateral trade system [1][8]. Group 1: Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The U.S. has established a framework for "reciprocal tariffs" that allows for unilateral adjustments, replacing the multilateral agreements advocated by the WTO, thus granting the White House substantial discretionary power [2]. - ASEAN countries face challenges in forming a unified response due to their diverse political and economic structures, leading to individual negotiations with the U.S. [1][2]. - The new tariff structure has resulted in varying tax rates for ASEAN countries, with Vietnam facing a 20% tariff, which could significantly impact its export sectors and employment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Political Repercussions - The tariffs are not merely a tax adjustment but a strategic tool for the U.S. to compel concessions from other nations, creating a dynamic balance rather than mutual reductions in trade barriers [2][8]. - The tariffs have led to increased tensions in the region, as seen in the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which was influenced by U.S. trade policies [5]. - The RCEP agreement is seen as a potential counterbalance to U.S. tariffs, with expectations of increased intra-regional trade and reduced tariffs over time, although immediate benefits may be limited due to varying levels of development among ASEAN members [6][7]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. may continue to rely on tariffs as a tool for trade negotiations, creating a prolonged period of uncertainty for global trade and investment [8]. - ASEAN countries must enhance internal coordination and develop resilient supply chains to mitigate the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs and maintain competitiveness in the global market [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian products, raising the total tariff rate to 50%, which is expected to disrupt U.S.-India trade significantly [1][3] - Moody's has indicated that the high tariffs could severely impact India's manufacturing sector and slow down economic growth, particularly affecting the jewelry, textiles, and automotive parts industries [3] - India's gem and jewelry exports totaled $32 billion from April 2023 to March 2024, with nearly $10 billion (over 30%) of that going to the U.S., making the sector vulnerable to the new tariffs [3] Group 2 - The diamond industry in India is facing increased costs of over 50% due to the tariffs, forcing businesses to prioritize price reductions while raw material prices are also rising [5] - The U.S. remains the largest market for India's textile and apparel exports, with potential immediate losses of $2.5 billion to $3 billion in exports due to the tariffs [7] - The automotive parts sector, which has seen rapid growth and achieved a trade surplus, exported $6.6 billion worth of parts to the U.S. in 2024, with $3 billion of that being commercial vehicle parts now threatened by the tariffs [7] Group 3 - Negotiations between the U.S. and India regarding tariff measures have stalled, with India refusing to grant tariff concessions on agriculture and dairy as requested by the U.S. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent EU-US trade agreement has been criticized for its vague content and potential to exacerbate future trade tensions, with experts likening it to a "napkin agreement" due to its lack of clarity and enforceability [1][2][3] Group 1: Agreement Criticism - The EU-US trade agreement is seen as poorly constructed, with experts highlighting its ambiguous nature and the likelihood of disputes over its execution [1] - The agreement has been described as more of a statement or informal understanding rather than a solid contract, raising concerns about its durability [1][2] - Previous experiences with US trade agreements have led to skepticism regarding the US's commitment to uphold its side of the deal, as evidenced by past renegotiations that excluded agricultural products [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The trade agreement is viewed as a reward for bad behavior, undermining decades of global trade principles and potentially increasing protectionism [2] - The shift in US trade policy, with tariffs on the EU rising from 2.2% to 15%, is perceived by some European politicians as a victory, despite the risk of further escalation to 30% [2] - The agreement may lead to greater EU dependence on the US in trade and defense, which could damage the EU's standing as an independent negotiating entity [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The EU is expected to pursue initiatives to enhance its own capabilities, such as developing its defense industry and expanding trade relations with other economies [3] - There is a possibility that the EU will strengthen its trade ties with other regions, including finalizing a long-negotiated free trade agreement with the Southern Common Market [3]

赤泽亮正表示，此前与美方反复确认，针对现有税率低于15%的商品，在8月税率提高后总税率应为15%。而美国政府日前发布的公告显示，日本 已被征税商品需在现有税率之上再加15%，内容与协议不符，对日本不利。 日美新一轮关税协议8月7日正式生效。同一天，日本政府发布更新版的2025财年实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期数据，从先前预期的1.2%下 调至0.7%。其下调预期的主要原因之一是美国加征关税的影响。 日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正 8月6日上午，日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正表示，美国方面公布的8月7日开始征收关税的官方公告与此前日美双方达成的协议不一致，此前在7 月22日，美国与日本达成贸易协议，日本适用的所谓"对等关税"税率将为15%。由于"对等关税"包含所谓10%的"基准关税"4月起已在征收，8月起 日本适用的税率将从10%提高到15%。 第一，在安全上，日本依靠美国，所以在这方面日本受到很大的牵制。 虽然知道日美关税是强扭的瓜，但怎么这么快就变味了？ 第二，在贸易方面，日本对美国的出口有顺差，基本上三分之一以上是汽车，日本汽车对美国汽车具有巨大的竞争优势。在这一情况下，日本就 必须艰苦谈判。 中国世贸组 ...

Group 1 - Recent trade negotiations between India and the US have stalled due to disagreements over tariffs and non-tariff barriers, with the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1][7] - The Indian government has expressed that the US's actions are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has indicated it will take necessary actions to protect national interests [1] - In response to the high tariffs, India has decided to suspend its plans to purchase US military equipment, including "Striker" armored vehicles and "Javelin" anti-tank missiles [2][5] Group 2 - The US had a trade deficit of approximately $45 billion with India last year, importing $87 billion worth of goods from India while exporting $42 billion worth of goods to India [7] - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of supporting local manufacturing, stating that India must remain vigilant regarding its economic interests [7] - Indian businesses in the US are struggling due to the increased tariffs, with reports of significant declines in sales and profitability, particularly in the jewelry and grocery sectors [8][10] Group 3 - Modi held a phone conversation with Russian President Putin, reaffirming India's commitment to deepening strategic ties and inviting Putin to visit India later this year [11] - Discussions between India and Russia included cooperation in various sectors such as rare earth mining, industrial infrastructure, and aerospace technology [12] - Modi is expected to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which may influence India's diplomatic stance amid rising tensions with the US [14]