Core Insights - The current A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the key 4000-point level, prompting investors to seek better asset allocation strategies and opportunities to mitigate risks [1] - An ETF seminar hosted by Minmetals Securities in Chengdu featured expert insights on ETF products, strategies, options basics, and index investments, aimed at enhancing investor knowledge [1] Group 1: ETF Advantages - The primary advantage of ETFs is risk diversification, as they consist of a basket of securities, which helps investors avoid the impact of individual stock failures, making them suitable for conservative investors [2] - ETFs generally have lower management fees compared to actively managed funds, leading to significant compounded returns over the long term; they also offer flexible trading mechanisms and are exempt from stamp duty, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider a high allocation of 70%-80% in ETFs for beginners, while more experienced investors can allocate 30%-40% to ETFs to enhance returns while maintaining stability [4] - Current market conditions suggest a "slow bull" trend in A-shares, with increased volatility; investors are encouraged to focus on sectors such as technology growth, energy transition, and strategic resources, including AI, solid-state batteries, energy storage, and nuclear energy [6] Group 3: ETF Selection Criteria - When selecting ETFs, investors should consider factors such as scale and liquidity, tracking error, and management fees; larger and more actively traded ETFs tend to have lower transaction costs and tracking errors [7] - Various investment strategies suitable for different market conditions include long-term holding of broad-based or high-dividend ETFs, dollar-cost averaging to avoid emotional trading, and a "core-satellite" approach to manage drawdowns while capturing rotation opportunities [9] Group 4: Derivative Tools and Investor Education - The use of derivative tools like ETF options can help hedge risks, enhance returns, and leverage positions; for instance, selling out-of-the-money call options during market fluctuations can generate premium income [9] - The seminar served as a platform for investor education, with the company emphasizing its commitment to enhancing financial literacy and risk awareness among investors to promote a healthy and stable capital market [9]

Group 1 - The willingness to adjust convertible bonds is decreasing, with only 10% of proposed adjustments in October compared to 21% in September, indicating a shrinking adjustment space [1][13][19] - The proportion of convertible bonds with a price in the (0,80] range has decreased from 40.7% at the beginning of the year to 20.0%, reflecting a continuous reduction in potential adjustment space [1][19] - The market is seeing a shift from adjustment strategies to focusing on the underlying stocks, with an emphasis on opportunities related to undervalued stocks in the context of optimistic market expectations [2][22] Group 2 - The convertible bond market has shown positive performance, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.86% this week, alongside an increase in average daily trading volume to 685.26 billion [3][31] - A total of 17 industries saw gains, with the retail, coal, and steel sectors leading the market, while the computer, media, and electronics sectors experienced declines [3][30][38] - The weighted average conversion value of the market has increased to 104.67 yuan, with a corresponding decrease in the premium rate to 37.68% [4][48] Group 3 - The supply of convertible bonds is tightening, with two new bonds issued this week and several announcements regarding potential adjustments and redemptions [5][24] - The market is advised to focus on convertible bonds nearing their adjustment periods, considering factors such as remaining term and financial pressure to identify potential adjustment candidates [1][19][24] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring structural opportunities in sectors like technology, consumer goods, and cyclical industries, particularly in the context of economic recovery [2][22][24]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market equity assets are expected to present significant opportunities due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a shift in global liquidity expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Emerging Markets and Equity Assets - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are anticipated to enhance dollar liquidity, benefiting emerging markets directly [1]. - Historical data indicates that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of dollar weakness [1]. - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned for a rebound due to its historical mid-level valuations and sensitivity to foreign capital flows [1]. - The A-share market is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing internal competition and the expectations surrounding the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - Net inflows from southbound capital exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a historical record and indicating a clear trend of foreign capital increasing allocations to Chinese assets [1]. Group 2: Gold and Commodities - The gold market is currently facing technical correction pressures, particularly after prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, but the long-term upward trend remains solid [2]. - Factors supporting gold's long-term growth include the onset of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to lower real interest rates, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical factors [2]. - Supply constraints and a bottoming global inventory cycle are expected to benefit commodities such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, which have strong investment value [2]. Group 3: Technology Growth and Investment Strategy - The resurgence of AI capital expenditure is driving upward revisions in earnings for U.S. tech stocks, while A-share sectors like AI computing power, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals resonate with global industry trends [2]. - Historically, technology growth assets tend to lead during interest rate cut cycles, and policy support is expected to enhance the performance of these sectors [2]. - A balanced and slightly aggressive investment strategy is recommended, focusing on three main lines: technology growth and high-end manufacturing, resource commodities, and defensive layouts [3]. - The first line emphasizes technology growth and high-end manufacturing, particularly in AI, semiconductors, and robotics [3]. - The second line focuses on resource commodities, highlighting gold and base metals as strategic investment options during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [3]. - The third line suggests defensive investments in high-dividend assets like utilities and dividend stocks, as well as positioning in consumer sectors awaiting policy catalysts [3].

Report Title - Active Equity Fund Monthly Investment Portfolio - October 2025 [1][2] Market and Fund Performance in September - Major broad - based indices rose, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index leading the gains, while the SSE 50 Index performed weakly [3] - Among industry sectors, the CITIC Growth Index and CITIC Cyclical Index had positive monthly returns, while the CITIC Consumption Index and CITIC Financial Index fell by 2% - 3% [3] - In terms of fund strategies, growth - style funds, especially those focused on prosperity and trend, outperformed, with an average increase of over 7%, while deep - value style funds lagged [3] - Among industry - themed funds, technology, cyclical, and new - energy themed funds had positive returns, while pharmaceutical and consumption - themed funds had negative returns [3] - Growth style outperformed value style, and large - and mid - cap styles outperformed small - cap styles [3] Top - Performing Funds Recent One - Month Performance - **All - Market Top Ten**: Funds like Noan Advanced Manufacturing A (001707.OF) and Huabao Competitive Advantage A (010335.OF) had significant monthly increases, with Noan Advanced Manufacturing A rising 31.08% and Huabao Competitive Advantage A rising 28.27% [6] - **Industry - Themed Top Ten**: Noan Research Preferred A (008185.OF) led with a 36.32% monthly increase, followed by Silver Fund Integrated Circuit A (013840.OF) with a 33.68% increase [6] Year - to - Date Performance - **All - Market Top Ten**: Hengyue Advantage Selection (011815.OF) had a YTD increase of 121.69%, and Jiaoyin Optimal Return A (519770.OF) had a 115.96% increase [8] - **Industry - Themed Top Ten**: Yongying Technology Smart Selection A (022364.OF) led with a 187.86% YTD increase, followed by China - Europe Digital Economy A (018993.OF) with a 132.39% increase [8] October Equity Fund Portfolio Construction Market Outlook - In the short term, the core logic of incremental funds, improved internal returns, and policy resonance remains unchanged, but the risk premium is near the median, and some valuations are relatively high, requiring continuous growth in net profit. The market may slow down and fluctuate [10] Portfolio Construction Principles - **Sustained Tech Growth Opportunities**: The tech growth theme remains the main line of the bull market, but short - term volatility may be high. Consider funds with diversified investment directions and rotation strategies [10] - **Anti - Involution Policy Catalysts**: Industries at the bottom of the cycle, such as chemicals, steel, coal, and some energy metals, are expected to benefit from anti - involution policies, with improved risk - reward ratios [10] - **Style Rotation of Dividend - Value Stocks**: Dividend - value sectors, although with low profit expectations, have attractive dividend yields compared to treasury bond yields. During market fluctuations, funds may flow to low - level sectors, creating investment opportunities [10] Fund Portfolios - **Aggressive Portfolio**: Includes funds like Cathay Golden Prosperity Return A (019328.OF) and Fullgoal Steady Growth A (010624.OF), with a focus on technology, manufacturing, and consumption sectors [11] - **Conservative Portfolio**: Comprises funds such as Merchants Upstream Industry A (005161.OF) and ChinaAMC Value Selection A (007592.OF), with a relatively balanced distribution across sectors [11] Portfolio Distribution - **Aggressive Portfolio**: Technology accounts for 34.12%, followed by cycle at 20.21% and manufacturing at 15.94% [15] - **Conservative Portfolio**: Cycle has the highest proportion at 28.28%, followed by manufacturing at 17.79% and technology at 21.46% [17]

Group 1 - The short-term market structure indicates that technology growth has insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness, leading to high-level fluctuations while waiting for industrial trend catalysts to accumulate [1][5][6] - The recent narrow fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index and the wide fluctuations in technology growth reflect a lack of dominant structures to lead the market breakthrough [2][5][6] - The historical experience shows that when long-term cost-effectiveness is low, the difficulty of earning valuation money significantly increases, requiring continuous verification of industrial catalysts and high growth in performance to sustain effective upward trends [2][5][6] Group 2 - The mid-term market judgment maintains a "two-stage bull market" theory, with 2025's technology structure bull market being the first stage, and the spring of 2026 potentially marking a phase peak [7][8] - The market may face three challenges in spring 2026: verification of demand-side key periods, increased sensitivity to performance disturbances and liquidity shocks in low cost-effectiveness areas, and the need for time to wait for new structural highlights in the domestic technology industry [7][8] - The bull market is expected to have depth, with conditions for a comprehensive bull market becoming increasingly sufficient over time, and at least three mid-term returns yet to be realized [8] Group 3 - The economic direction for the next year is expected to evolve with a rotation in the fourth quarter, driven by the price increase cycle and the anticipated turning point in PPI [10] - The rotation of sectors will continue, with potential upward opportunities in the AI industry chain, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and national defense industries [10] - The report highlights that the market has already begun to anticipate the economic improvement of 2026, with the electricity equipment sector nearing low cost-effectiveness and the price increase cycle showing short-term cost-effectiveness limitations [10]

Market Overview - On November 7, A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 3997 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.51% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 557 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3100 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The organic silicon sector saw significant gains, with companies like Dongyue Silicon Material and Hesheng Silicon Industry hitting the daily limit [3][5] - The fluorochemical sector also surged, with stocks such as Yongtai Technology and Duofluorite reaching the daily limit [3][5] - The lithium mining sector strengthened, with Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [3] - Conversely, the robotics actuator and reducer sectors declined, with Top Group leading the losses [3] Key Stocks - Notable gainers included: - Dongyue Silicon Material: +20.04% [6] - Huasheng Lithium Battery: +19.16% [6] - Fuxiang Pharmaceutical: +14.01% [6] - The fluorochemical sector saw stocks like Qichuan Chemical and Yongtai Technology also reaching the daily limit [8] Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continued to rise, nearing 120,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report from Longzhong Information indicated that the market price for lithium hexafluorophosphate fluctuated between 113,800 and 119,800 yuan per ton [7] Industry Insights - The organic silicon industry is undergoing consolidation, with leading polysilicon companies planning to form a consortium to eliminate excess capacity and settle industry debts [5] - The implementation of new energy consumption standards is expected to increase industry concentration by phasing out non-compliant production capacities [5] Future Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the spring of 2026 may mark a phase peak, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year [19] - The report suggests that as supply clears, the effective return of "policy bottom, market bottom, and economic bottom" will likely occur, potentially signaling the start of a new market cycle [19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with technology stocks undergoing a correction after a previous surge, while dividend stocks are performing well, indicating a "seesaw" effect in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:29, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index has decreased by 1.1%, while the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index has increased by 0.1% [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index consists of 50 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with over 65% of its composition from the semiconductor industry [1] - The China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index focuses on stocks with high dividend levels and low volatility, with nearly 50% of its composition from the banking sector [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Zhejiang Securities predicts that by 2026, the equity market will continue to exhibit a structural trend of low volatility dividends intertwined with technology growth [1] - The ongoing industrial policy in China is expected to strengthen, aiming for technological growth, while fluctuations in China-US relations may lead to a temporary shift in market style towards dividends [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588080) and the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020) track the respective indices, providing investors with tools to construct a balanced investment strategy to seize opportunities in the structural market [1]

Market Overview - The market opened lower but rebounded, with the three major indices briefly turning positive, while the CSI A500 index fell by 0.11% [1] - The chemical sector continued to strengthen, with the Hainan sector showing repeated activity, and the organic silicon sector experiencing a collective surge. Conversely, multiple stocks in the robotics sector declined [1] ETF Performance - As of the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index saw slight declines. Notably, 11 CSI A500-related ETFs had transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, with 3 surpassing 2.9 billion yuan. The transaction amounts for A500 ETF Fund, CSI A500 ETF, and A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan were 3.543 billion yuan, 3.183 billion yuan, and 2.987 billion yuan, respectively [1][2] Investment Strategy - A brokerage firm indicated that the current market style in A-shares is expected to be more balanced than in the third quarter. The firm suggests focusing on: 1. New momentum industries represented by technology growth and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to remain core sources of prosperity and should be explored for expansion opportunities [1] 2. Balanced allocation, as policies like "anti-involution" take effect and domestic demand recovers, leading to marginal improvements in certain cyclical sectors. Key areas to watch include those benefiting from supply-side optimization and structural demand growth, capitalizing on their valuation recovery potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with notable movements in specific sectors such as Hainan Free Trade and technology growth trends becoming clearer [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.07% [1]. - The Hainan Free Trade concept is gaining traction, with Haima Automobile hitting the daily limit up for six consecutive days, and Hainan Development also reaching the limit up [1][3]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The Hainan sector is performing well, driven by high-level discussions on the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port, aiming for high-quality development and a modern industrial system [3]. - In the downtrend, sectors such as storage chips and semiconductors are experiencing corrections [1]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Huajin Securities suggests a slow bull market and recommends accumulating positions in communication and electronics sectors, as recent factors causing adjustments may gradually dissipate [4]. - Dongguan Securities notes that the market style is expected to be more balanced than in the third quarter, with a focus on technology growth and high-end manufacturing [5]. - Zhongyuan Securities anticipates a continuation of structural volatility in the market, advising to consider increasing allocations in the technology sector if price-performance ratios improve [6].

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 7 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股全天震荡走强，沪指重回 4000 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4007.76 | 0.97% | 38.51 | | | 深证成指 | 13452.42 | 1.73% | 228.86 | | | 沪深 300 | 4693.40 | 1.43% | 66.15 | | | 创业板 | 3224.62 | 1.84% | 58.39 | | | 科创 50 | 1436.86 | 3.34% | 46.46 | | | 北证 50 | 1519.81 | -0.38% | -5.75 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.05% ...