中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国新办发布会上说，9项结构性货币政策工具存量规模5.9万亿元，占 人民银行资产负债表规模13%，处于合理水平。 （新华财经） ...

金十数据5月7日讯，今天上午9时，国务院新闻办公室将举行新闻发布会。出席今天记者会的是三个部 门的主要负责人，分别是央行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽以及证监会主席吴清。三位部长同 时亮相记者会，媒体们都预计今天会上将会有稳市场稳预期的重磅信息发布。具体而言，记者们有哪些 关注焦点和热点问题？1、货币政策有哪些新动作？今天发布会上，央行行长潘功胜将会宣布哪些重磅 政策？降准降息有什么安排？同样大家还关心之前提到的要创设新的结构性货币政策工具，具体是什么 样的设计？2、金融如何稳楼市稳股市？3、金融如何支持小微、外贸？ （央视） 三部委负责人介绍一揽子金融政策 记者们有哪些关注焦点和热点问题？ ...

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Core Viewpoint - The financial performance in Xinjiang for the first quarter shows significant growth in social financing and loans, driven by the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the People's Bank of China Xinjiang Branch, which supports stable economic growth in the region [1][4]. Financing Volume and Policy Implementation - As of the end of March, the total social financing in Xinjiang reached 5.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, surpassing the national average by 2.9 percentage points [1]. - The balance of RMB loans stood at 3.44 trillion yuan, growing by 9.3% year-on-year, also above the national average by 1.9 percentage points [1]. - The People's Bank of China Xinjiang Branch has actively guided financial institutions to increase financing scale and optimize financing structure, contributing to the region's economic stability [1][2]. Credit Support and Sector Focus - In the first quarter, state-owned banks in Xinjiang issued new loans totaling 976.6 billion yuan, while local banks added 337.6 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in support for economic development compared to the previous year [2]. - The total amount of re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises reached 140 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20 billion yuan [2][5]. - The balance of loans for the private economy reached 9.475 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while inclusive small and micro loans increased by 21.5% to 3.0149 trillion yuan [5]. Technological and Green Financing - By the end of March, the balance of technology loans was 688.4 billion yuan, up 14.4% year-on-year, and green loans reached 608.9 billion yuan, with an increase of 344.6 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [3]. - The Xinjiang Branch has utilized various monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and green financing, with over 200 billion yuan allocated to various policy tools by the end of March [2]. Interest Rate and Cost Management - The average interest rate for newly issued RMB loans in March was 3.59%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with small and micro enterprises seeing rates of 3.67% and 3.57%, respectively [11]. - The implementation of a "loan cost transparency" initiative aims to clarify the total financing costs for enterprises, helping to reduce unnecessary fees and lower overall financing costs [10][11]. Agricultural Financing and Rural Support - As of the end of March, agricultural loans totaled 1.28 trillion yuan, with an increase of 724.1 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, and loans to farmers reached 241.3 billion yuan, up 451.7 billion yuan [7]. - The Xinjiang Branch has launched initiatives to support rural revitalization, with 1.479 billion yuan allocated for spring farming loans, benefiting approximately 1920 enterprises and around 720,000 farmers [9].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.54, down 5.09 bp; DR007 closed at 1.78, up 3.35 bp; GC001 closed at 1.61, down 28.50 bp; GC007 closed at 1.68, down 17.00 bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.75, unchanged; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.60, unchanged; 1 - year treasury closed at 1.46, down 0.50 bp; 5 - year treasury closed at 1.51, down 2.00 bp; 10 - year treasury closed at 1.62, down 2.35 bp; 10 - year US treasury closed at 4.23, down 6.00 bp [3] - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net investment of 120 billion yuan [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Options - The CSI 300 fell 0.17% to 3775.1; the SSE 50 fell 0.22% to 2645.5; the CSI 500 rose 0.12% to 5604.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.45% to 5903.4. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.3 billion yuan [5] - The central political bureau meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies for specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the better - than - expected Q1 economic data reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation for stock index futures is to hold a light position and wait for the market direction to become clear. Before the May Day holiday, consider the double - buying strategy for stock index options due to overseas uncertainties and low option volatility [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different levels of premium and discount rates for different delivery months [7]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.54 with a -5.09bp change, DR007 at 1.78 with a 3.35bp change, GC001 at 1.61 with a -28.50bp change, GC007 at 1.68 with a -17.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.75 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.46 with a -0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.51 with a -2.00bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.62 with a -2.35bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.23 with a -6.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily injection of 120 billion yuan after 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the rest postponed to the first trading day after the May Day holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", but the urgency of short - term cuts has decreased considering the first - quarter economic data and tariff uncertainties [4] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3775, down 0.17%; the SSE 50 at 2646, down 0.22%; the CSI 500 at 5604.9, up 0.12%; and the CSI 1000 at 5903.4, up 0.45%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.3 billion yuan [5] - Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with beauty care, plastics products, pesticides and veterinary drugs, auto parts, chemical products, shipbuilding, and decoration sectors leading the gains, while the power, insurance, and shipping port sectors leading the losses [5] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Options Strategy - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the first - quarter economic data reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Before the May Day holiday, consider the double - buying strategy for stock index options due to high overseas uncertainties and low option volatility [6] Group 5: Stock Index Futures Basis - The IF basis for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts is 9.83%, 9.35%, 7.10%, and 5.35% respectively; the IH basis is 5.29%, 6.45%, 5.38%, and 3.66% respectively; the IC basis is 11.92%, 14.74%, 11.12%, and 9.16% respectively; and the IM basis is 12.87%, 15.43%, 12.68%, and 11.23% respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on the market has weakened, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. For Treasury bonds, short - term interest rates are expected to remain volatile. For precious metals, a medium - term long - term view should be maintained for gold and silver prices, but short - term attention should be paid to support levels and policy signals. For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. For black building materials, the prices of steel products and raw materials are under pressure, and glass and soda ash are expected to be weak. For energy chemicals, rubber prices are expected to repair, and the prices of other products are affected by supply and demand and macro factors. For agricultural products, the prices of various varieties are affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors, showing different trends [4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Financial Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.13%, while the STAR 50 Index rose 0.10%, and the North Exchange 50 Index rose 1.24% on the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1022.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: Xi Jinping emphasized accelerating the construction of a global - influential scientific and technological innovation high - ground during his inspection in Shanghai. The US March merchandise trade deficit hit a record high. The financing amount increased by 1.204 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate decreased by 6.20bp to 1.5410%. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy IM index futures long on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the TL main contract rose 0.69%, the T main contract rose 0.23%, the TF main contract rose 0.13%, and the TS main contract rose 0.01% [5]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission added and issued 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds to local areas. The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q1 2025 was 3.11%. The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue 71 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds on May 9 [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term interest rates are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the release of liquidity by structural policy tools. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be introduced according to mid - term macro - situation changes [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold fell 0.29% to 785.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.12% to 8226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.21% to 3326.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.15% to 33.19 US dollars/ounce [7]. - **Fundamentals**: US economic data weakened, and consumer confidence hit the lowest level since May 2020. Trump's attitude towards tariffs is tough, and the short - term risk of US tariffs is unlikely to ease significantly [7][8]. - **Strategy**: A medium - term long - term view should be maintained for gold and silver prices. For gold, pay attention to the support at 747 yuan/gram, and the reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 747 - 808 yuan/gram. For silver, wait for the Fed's clear loose policy signal, and the reference range for the Shanghai silver main contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kilogram [8]. 2. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.44% to 9446 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77740 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 to 202500 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio rose to 35.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but consumption is weakening, and macro - sentiment is volatile [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 9300 - 9550 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME aluminum rose 1.42% to 2470 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20040 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 0.2 million hands to 524000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.2 million tons to 70000 tons [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity growth is limited, and inventory is declining, but the short - term sentiment is not optimistic [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with the domestic main contract reference range of 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 2420 - 2500 US dollars/ton [11]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory increased, and the price may decline due to the expected increase in social inventory. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and fluctuate in the range of 16300 - 17800 in the medium - term. - **Nickel**: The supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to ease, and the price center may move down. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to go short on rallies due to oversupply. - **Stainless Steel**: The price may be under pressure due to supply - demand contradictions [12][13][14][16][17][18][19]. 3. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Performance**: The rebar main contract fell 0.92% to 3100 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.83% to 3210 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The "Two New" and "Two Important" policies may support demand, but there are concerns about long - term demand and international trade. There are rumors of crude steel production cuts [22]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariffs, terminal demand, and cost support [22]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main contract (I2509) fell 0.21% to 709 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand may peak. There are rumors of crude steel production cuts [24]. - **Outlook**: The raw material is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of production cuts [24]. Other Black Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass is expected to be weakly volatile, and soda ash is expected to be weak in the short - term. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices are expected to be weak, and it is not recommended to buy on the left side. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [25][26][30]. 4. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Performance**: The decline in rubber prices has released risks. - **Fundamentals**: There are differences between the long - and short - term views on supply and demand. Tire factory开工率 is declining, and inventory is high [34][35]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - long view in the short - term, with short - term operations and attention to the RU2601 - RU2509 spread [37]. Other Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price fell, and it is considered that there is a high probability of OPEC increasing production due to Kazakhstan's over - quota production [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to go short on rallies due to the expected increase in supply and weakening demand [39]. - **Urea**: It is suitable for long - position allocation on dips, and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread [40]. - **Styrene**: It is recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to risks during the holiday [41]. - **PVC**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it depends on maintenance and exports for further inventory reduction [43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile due to supply - demand and tariff impacts [44]. - **PTA and PX**: They are expected to follow the crude oil trend and are affected by negative feedback in the industrial chain [45][47]. - **Polyethylene and Polypropylene**: The prices are expected to decline due to supply and demand factors [48][49]. 5. Agricultural Products Livestock and Poultry Products - **Pigs**: The short - term price is stable, and it is recommended to short on rallies after rebounds [51]. - **Eggs**: The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies after rebounds [52]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The future inventory of soybean meal and soybeans is expected to increase, and the price is affected by supply, demand, and tariffs [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price is affected by trade wars, and the medium - term is expected to be stable and bullish [54]. Oils - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports are increasing, and the US soybean oil demand may be boosted. - **Outlook**: The price may be weak in the short - term and may be supported in the medium - term if the macro - situation stabilizes [55][56]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell, and the spot price also declined slightly [57]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, and the short - term domestic sugar price is affected by drought and imports [57][58]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile [58]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell, and the spot price also declined slightly [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton planting progress is smooth, and the domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [59]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and inventory changes [59].

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 4 月 29 日，万得全 A 缩量上涨，低开上涨后震荡运行，收涨 0.20%，超 6 成 个股飘红。指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 低开上涨后 震荡回落，尾盘有所回升，前二者收跌 0.17%、0.22%，后二者分别上涨 0.12%、 0.45%，中小盘股更为强势。指数期货方面，IH 主力合约表现弱于现货，收跌 0.26%， IF、IC、IM 主力合约表现强于现货，IF 收跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. poses significant challenges for foreign trade enterprises in China, necessitating financial support to stabilize and enhance foreign trade operations [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Support for Foreign Trade Enterprises - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for financial institutions to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties, ensuring their reasonable financing needs are met [1][4]. - Agricultural Bank of China has implemented policies to support SMEs in foreign trade, including a "no repayment" loan policy for those with technology and market potential but facing operational challenges [3][4]. - As of the end of March, Agricultural Bank of China has visited 27,900 foreign trade enterprises and issued loans totaling 131.2 billion yuan to 17,200 enterprises on its "recommendation list" [3]. Group 2: Currency Risk Management - With the increasing volatility of the RMB exchange rate, foreign trade enterprises face heightened currency risk, prompting a greater demand for currency hedging products [5][6]. - A technology company specializing in smart display devices has benefited from a tailored currency risk management solution that mitigates exchange rate fluctuations while reducing financial costs [6][7]. - Xiamen International Bank has introduced measures to lower the costs of currency hedging for eligible enterprises, including waiving margin requirements for foreign exchange derivatives, thereby easing the financial burden on foreign trade companies [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. The central bank has created new structural monetary policy tools and may cut reserve - requirement ratios and interest rates in a timely manner. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have increased this period, and domestic port inventories have changed from decreasing to increasing, with an expected increase in supply. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has been slightly adjusted upwards, and hot metal production has increased by 4230 tons. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 - axis. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading, hold light positions during the holiday, and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 709 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the position volume is 638,601 lots, down 2688 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 9471 lots, down 3934 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts are 3200 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 98.55 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.14 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 829 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 805 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 685 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 96 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 99.40 US dollars/ton, up 0.20 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.40, unchanged. The estimated import cost is 839 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 27.584 million tons, up 3.207 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports is 26.796 million tons, up 2.304 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports is 142.61 million tons, up 2.05 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 90.7303 million tons, up 0.2011 million tons. The monthly iron ore import volume is 93.97 million tons, down 0.24 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 23 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 396,300 tons, down 11,400 tons; the operating rate is 63.06%, down 1.46 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 652,600 tons, down 52,800 tons. The BDI index is 1403, up 30. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 19.67 US dollars/ton, up 0.22 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.84 US dollars/ton, up 0.09 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.35%, up 0.77 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 91.62%, up 1.49 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 92.84 million tons, up 16.87 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 26.78%, down 0.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.18%, down 0.77 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.99%, up 2.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.53%, up 2.60 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 27.584 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.207 million tons. The Australian shipment was 19.952 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.96 million tons, and the amount shipped to China was 16.472 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.729 million tons. The Brazilian shipment was 7.632 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.246 million tons. From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.796 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.304 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.128 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.875 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 11.593 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.343 million tons [2].