在研判国内外经济金融形势时，本次例会认为，当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足， 贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行 总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。 对比第三季度例会来看，本次例会删除了"物价低位运行"的相关表述，并强调"我国经济运行仍面临供 强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战"，较第三季度例会中的"仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑 战"略有变动。 这或与近期物价出现的积极信号有关。国家统计局数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价 格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高；扣除食品和能 源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 11月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%，为连续两个月上涨。对此，国 家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办新闻发布会上指出，PPI连 续2个月环比上涨，表明支持价格合理回升的积极因素继续累积。当然也要看到，PPI同比还在 ...

Group 1 - In 2026, China's economic development will focus on using domestic circulation stability to counter international circulation uncertainties, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts in both supply and demand to solidify consumption growth [1][12] - The transition from "incremental pull" to "structural optimization" in consumption policies is necessary to better align supply with the evolving demand for upgraded consumption, addressing both supply shortages and oversupply issues [3][4] - Monetary policy tools have ample room for action, with expectations for continued reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, alongside innovative structural monetary policy tools to stimulate credit without causing fund "idle" [5][6] Group 2 - The core constraint on consumer spending is the need for stable income expectations, which can be addressed through policies that enhance income stability and reduce precautionary savings pressures in housing, education, and healthcare [4][5] - The RMB is expected to experience a "strong first, weak later" trend against the USD in 2026, influenced by both domestic monetary easing and external factors such as US interest rate changes and geopolitical dynamics [6][7] - The "Five Major Articles" in financial services for the real economy are anticipated to make significant progress in areas such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, contingent on regulatory support and policy breakthroughs [8][9][10][11]

Economic Outlook - In 2026, China's economic development will focus on using domestic circulation stability to counter international circulation uncertainties, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts in both supply and demand to solidify consumption growth [1][12][13] - The transition from "incremental stimulation" to "structural optimization" in consumption policies is necessary to better align supply with the evolving demand for upgraded consumption [3] Monetary Policy - Traditional and innovative monetary policy tools will have ample room for action in 2026, with expectations for continued reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to lower financing costs for the real economy [5] - Structural monetary policy tools may see enhancements, including increasing the scale and reducing the cost of effective tools, to better stimulate credit growth and avoid idle funds [5] Currency Exchange - The RMB is expected to experience a "strong first, weak later" trend against the USD in 2026, with fluctuations influenced by both domestic monetary policy and international economic conditions [6] Financial Services - The "Five Major Articles" will guide financial services towards key areas such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, with potential breakthroughs anticipated in 2026 [7][8][9][10] Housing and Consumer Policies - To alleviate preventive savings pressure on residents, policies such as increasing the supply of affordable housing and introducing home purchase interest subsidies are recommended [4] - Enhancing public education services and optimizing healthcare support for vulnerable groups are also crucial for boosting consumer confidence and spending [4] Gold Market - The gold market is expected to maintain upward momentum in 2026, driven by factors such as expanding debt among major economies and geopolitical tensions, alongside the People's Bank of China's renewed interest in gold reserves [11]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economic development will focus on leveraging domestic circulation stability to counter international uncertainties, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts in both domestic and international strategies [12][13]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Consumption - The transition from "incremental stimulation" to "structural optimization" in consumption policies is necessary to better align supply with the evolving demand for upgraded consumption [3]. - To achieve sustainable long-term consumption growth, policy tools must target both supply and demand sides, including increasing income expectations and enhancing consumer subsidies and credit support [3][4]. - Addressing the core contradiction in consumer spending, which is the stabilization of income expectations, is crucial for boosting consumption [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - Traditional and innovative monetary policy tools have ample room for action, with expectations for continued reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to lower financing costs for the real economy [5]. - Structural monetary policy tools may see enhancements, such as increasing quotas and lowering rates for effective existing tools [5]. Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rates - The RMB is expected to experience a "strong first, weak later" trend with fluctuations in 2026, influenced by both domestic and international factors [6]. - The stability of the RMB against the USD will face challenges due to external shocks and the increasing frequency of cross-border capital flows [6]. Group 4: Financial Services and Innovation - The "Five Major Articles" will guide financial services towards key areas such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, with significant potential for breakthroughs in 2026 [7][8][9][10]. - In technology finance, the focus will be on developing high-quality policies for technology insurance and enhancing the financial service system for technology enterprises [8]. - Green finance will advance with the establishment of a national carbon trading market, although participation from banks is essential for effective implementation [9]. Group 5: Gold Market - The gold market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, supported by macroeconomic factors such as expanding debt in major economies and geopolitical tensions [11]. - The necessity of gold reserves is underscored by the current economic climate, which enhances gold's investment value [11].

记者丨唐婧 边万莉 编辑｜曾芳 12月24日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会内容公布。此次会议作为判断 未来一段时间货币政策走向的重要风向标，释放出一系列关键政策信号。 在研判国内外经济金融形势时，本次例会认为，当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长 动能不足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不 确定性。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛 盾突出等问题和挑战。 对比第三季度例会来看， 本次例会删除了"物价低位运行"的相关表述，并强调"我国经济运行 仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战" ， 较第三季度例会中的"仍面临国内需求不足、物价 低位运行等困难和挑战"略有变动。 这或与近期物价出现的积极信号有关。 国家统计局数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高；扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 11月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%，为连续两个 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 边万莉 12月24日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会内容公布。此次会议作为判断未来一段时间货币政策走向的重要风向标，释放出 一系列关键政策信号。 在研判国内外经济金融形势时，本次例会认为，当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有 所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等 问题和挑战。 对比第三季度例会来看，本次例会删除了"物价低位运行"的相关表述，并强调"我国经济运行仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战"，较第三 季度例会中的"仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑战"略有变动。 这或与近期物价出现的积极信号有关。国家统计局数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比 上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 11月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%，为连续两个月上涨。对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The meeting calls for the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing the intensity of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and better utilizing both the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools [1]. - It is suggested to maintain ample liquidity, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1]. Interest Rates - The meeting stresses the importance of strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates and improving the market-oriented interest rate formation transmission mechanism [2]. - There is a focus on observing and assessing the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, particularly regarding changes in long-term yields [2]. Exchange Rates - The meeting highlights the need to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, maintaining the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [2]. Financial Support - The meeting outlines the importance of guiding large banks to play a key role in serving the real economy while encouraging small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core responsibilities and enhance capital strength [2]. - Key areas for financial support include expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises, utilizing structural monetary policy tools effectively [2].

责任编辑：王馨茹 12月24日金融一线消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会于12月18日 召开。会议指出，要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，增 强银行资本实力，共同维护金融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金 融"五篇大文章"，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。用好证券、基金、 保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。持续做好支持 民营经济发展壮大的金融服务。切实推进金融高水平双向开放，提高开放条件下经济金融管理能力和风 险防控能力。 12月24日金融一线消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会于12月18日 召开。会议指出，要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，增 强银行资本实力，共同维护金融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金 融"五篇大文章"，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。用好证券、基金、 保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of large banks in supporting the real economy and enhancing the capital strength of small and medium-sized banks to maintain financial market stability [1] Group 1: Financial Policy and Support - The meeting calls for effective implementation of various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [1] - It highlights the need to utilize securities, funds, and insurance company swap facilities and stock repurchase loans to explore regular institutional arrangements for maintaining capital market stability [1] Group 2: Financial Services and Economic Management - There is a strong focus on providing financial services to support the growth of the private economy [1] - The meeting stresses the importance of advancing high-level financial openness and improving economic and financial management capabilities and risk prevention under open conditions [1]

从更深层次看，招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼认为，当前企业新发放贷款及个人住房贷款加权平均利率均处于历史低位。综合融资 成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。在此背景下引导LPR下行并非当务之急。 新华财经北京12月22日电（记者翟卓）22日，12月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）如期揭晓，其中1年期及5年期以上品种分别报3.0%、3.5%，均为连续第7个月 保持不变，符合市场普遍预期。 至此，2025年内1年期及5年期以上LPR均累计下行10个基点，自6月以来二者与7天期逆回购利率的加点始终维持在160个、210个基点。 从直接原因看，本月LPR继续持稳主要受两方面因素影响，即作为政策利率的7天期逆回购利率保持稳定，以及商业银行净息差仍然承压，而二者分别意味 着12月LPR的定价基础没有发生改变，以及商业银行缺乏主动压降报价加点动力。 综合来看，董希淼预计，如果2026年存款利率和政策利率进一步下降，届时LPR也有望稳中有降，并更加注重发挥结构性货币政策工具作用，引导金融资源 更多流向科技创新、绿色发展、提振消费等领域。 "而且随着市场利率不断降低，降息的边际效应也在下降，降息并非当前稳增长、促 ...