Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is highly anticipated, as it marks his eighth and final address at this significant event, with potential implications for financial markets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Past Speeches - Historical data indicates that after Powell's previous seven speeches at Jackson Hole, the average increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 21 basis points, while the S&P 500 index averaged a decline of nearly 2% [1]. - In 2022, following Powell's speech warning about the potential "pain" from tightening policies, the S&P 500 index plummeted by 12%, the dollar surged by 5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield skyrocketed by 75 basis points [1]. - Significant increases in bond yields were also observed after speeches in 2018, 2021, and 2023, with the 2023 speech leading to a rise of over 20 basis points in yields [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Context - Market expectations for the Fed's September monetary policy are intensifying, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite inflation remaining approximately 1 percentage point above the Fed's 2% target [4]. - The theme of this year's Jackson Hole conference focuses on the labor market's transformation, with analysts noting that a low unemployment rate does not necessarily indicate a hawkish stance from the Fed [4]. - Historical trends suggest that a rising unemployment rate could prompt the Fed to shift towards a more accommodative policy quickly [4]. Group 3: Powell's Final Address - This speech is significant as it is Powell's last before his term ends in May next year, occurring during a tumultuous period for the Fed [4][5]. - There is speculation that Powell may use this opportunity to reflect on his tenure and the lessons learned from the pandemic, particularly regarding inflation control [5][7]. - The pressure from former President Trump regarding interest rate cuts adds complexity to Powell's potential messaging during this farewell address [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among its officials, particularly concerning inflation risks over employment concerns [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][4]. - The July non-farm employment data was notably weaker than expected, and previous months' data were revised downwards, which undermined the Fed's stance on not lowering interest rates [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The July FOMC meeting minutes indicated that most officials preferred to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with only two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [1][5]. - The Fed's focus remains on controlling inflation, with officials expressing concerns that tariff policies could lead to prolonged inflationary pressures [2][6]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased, with approximately 82% probability according to CME FedWatch Tool, despite a slight decline from previous levels [4][6]. - The internal division within the Fed between hawkish and dovish views is evident, with a significant number of officials remaining cautious about inflation risks [5][6]. Political Pressure - The White House, particularly President Trump, has been exerting pressure on the Fed, calling for the resignation of certain officials and pushing for a more accommodative monetary policy [1][7]. - Despite political pressures, the Fed's decision-making is expected to remain primarily data-driven, with its independence likely to endure in the short term [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes reveal deepening internal divisions regarding the interest rate path, with a surprising two members supporting a rate cut, introducing new uncertainty into recent monetary policy discussions [1][5]. Economic Perspectives - Officials exhibit significant disagreement on key economic issues, particularly inflation, with some advocating for more time to observe trade policy impacts, while others argue that waiting for clear signals is neither feasible nor appropriate [3][5]. - There are varying opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing the transmission may be slower than expected, while others warn of rising pressures in service prices [3]. - The assessment of the U.S. labor market shows diverse viewpoints; despite a historically low unemployment rate, some officials note signs of slowing wage growth and a decrease in new job creation, indicating potential cooling in labor demand [3][5]. Economic Growth Outlook - Several participants expect the U.S. economic growth to remain sluggish in the second half of the year, with slowing real income growth potentially suppressing household consumption [3][5]. Employment Data Impact - The discussions occurred prior to the release of the July employment report, which significantly revised down the previous two months' employment data, potentially heightening concerns among decision-makers about economic slowdown [5]. - Analysts suggest that the meeting minutes, while not revealing much new information, reinforce key signals: the July meeting's tone was more cautious than market expectations, and future decisions will increasingly rely on economic data performance [5]. Policy Flexibility - Decision-makers emphasize the importance of maintaining policy flexibility, agreeing that adjustments should be made based on changes in economic data [7]. - The ongoing global economic uncertainty will continue to draw market attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the divisions among decision-makers reflecting the complexity of the current U.S. economic environment [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - On August 21, Shanghai gold futures closed at 775.12 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.30% and a trading volume of 128,755 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 773.25 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 1.87 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.00% to $3,392.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 1.51% to $37.90 per ounce [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that nearly all decision-makers supported maintaining interest rates, with only two dissenting voices advocating for a rate cut [2] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks, with most believing that inflation risks outweigh those related to employment [2] - Some officials indicated potential support for a rate cut in the September meeting, as the transmission of tariff increases to consumer prices has been slower than expected [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that after a round of price corrections due to policy expectations and geopolitical downgrades, gold and silver prices showed signs of stabilization and rebound [4] - However, short-term upward momentum for gold and silver prices remains lacking, while medium-term economic pressures in the U.S. and expectations of loose monetary policy may drive prices higher [4] - The expected trading range for COMEX gold is between $3,350 and $3,400 per ounce, while for Shanghai gold, it is between 770 and 790 yuan per gram [4] Group 4: SPDR Gold Trust Holdings - As of August 20, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) decreased by 0.42%, amounting to a reduction of 4.01 tons, bringing the total to 958.20 tons [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes revealed divisions among officials regarding U.S. inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, with two officials voting against the decision to maintain interest rates [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is causing concerns among investors, particularly affecting high-valued chip and tech stocks, leading to sell-offs, with Nvidia's stock dropping over 3% and Intel's stock falling nearly 7% [1] - Target's financial report showed a decline in net profit from approximately $1.2 billion to $935 million for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, raising investor concerns and resulting in a stock drop of over 6% [3] Group 2 - International oil prices saw a significant increase due to a substantial reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by over 6 million barrels, exceeding expectations, and operational disruptions at a BP refinery in Indiana due to flooding [6] - The optimism regarding a potential de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to declines in defense stocks, with the European aerospace and defense index dropping over 1% [7] - Some investors are buying gold at lower prices following consecutive declines, supported by a decrease in the U.S. dollar index, resulting in an increase in international gold prices [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton, short call@80000 yuan/ton [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee has rebounded, but the shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is not expected to perform well, but with relatively stable grid orders, the overall price is expected to fluctuate. The development of the Putin-Biden meeting and the performance of the domestic equity market may impact copper prices. The report suggests a neutral stance on copper, puts arbitrage on hold, and provides option strategies [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, a -0.32% decline from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,560 yuan/ton and closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 130 - 250 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average premium of 190 yuan/ton, a 5 yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was in the range of 78,670 - 78,870 yuan/ton. The purchase and sales sentiment in Shanghai increased. It is expected that domestic supplies will continue to be supplemented, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper will face continued pressure [2]. 3.3 Important Information Summary 3.3.1 Macroeconomic - The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting showed that tariffs pose upward pressure on commodity price inflation, but the increase in the cost of imported goods including tariffs will be less than previously predicted and the time of increase will be postponed. The labor market is expected to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise above the estimated natural unemployment rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [3]. 3.3.2 Mine End - Tudor Gold has submitted an underground exploration permit application for the Treaty Creek gold-copper mine project. First Quantum Minerals has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for the Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia, which is expected to nearly double the ore processing capacity, increase smelter capacity by about 25%, and increase the average annual copper production to 250,000 tons by 2044 [4]. 3.3.3 Smelting and Import - The Hong Kong delivery warehouse of the London Metal Exchange was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year-on-year increase. Some smelters have reduced production due to shortages of copper concentrate and scrap. In August, the number of smelters reducing production has increased compared to July [5]. 3.3.4 Consumption - The monthly prosperity index of China's copper industry in July was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [6]. 3.3.5 Inventory - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 450 tons to 156,350 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 25,223 tons. On August 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous week [6].

Group 1 - The New York stock market showed mixed results on August 20, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 16.04 points to close at 44,938.31, a gain of 0.04%, while the S&P 500 fell by 15.59 points to 6,395.78, a decline of 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 142.095 points to 21,172.857, a decrease of 0.67% [1] - Among the sectors in the S&P 500, seven out of eleven sectors rose, with the energy and consumer staples sectors leading gains at 0.86% and 0.80%, respectively, while the consumer discretionary and technology sectors led losses at 1.18% and 0.77% [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that officials expect short-term inflation to rise, with most believing that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, although there is disagreement on the impact of tariffs on prices and the persistence of inflation [1] Group 2 - Carol Schleif, Chief Strategist at BMO Private Wealth Management, noted that the strong rise in tech stocks since early April, with some up over 80%, has led to profit-taking among investors, which is not surprising [2] - Schleif warned that if Jerome Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole central bank conference are more hawkish, it could further pressure tech stocks, as sustained high interest rates are generally negative for the tech sector [2] - Target Corporation reported better-than-expected earnings and sales for the second fiscal quarter but reaffirmed its previously lowered full-year outlook, leading to a significant drop in its stock price by 6.33% on August 20 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The RMB to USD exchange rate exhibited a subtle balance on August 19, 2025, reflecting the maturity of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and the rationalization of market participants' expectations [2]. Market Performance: Subtle Differences Between Onshore and Offshore - The onshore RMB (CNY) market experienced slight fluctuations, with a low of 7.1870 and a closing rate of 7.1854, alongside a significant trading volume of 34.061 billion USD, indicating high market attention [3]. - The offshore RMB (CNH) showed a stronger performance, peaking at 7.1791 and closing at 7.1875, with a narrowing spread of only 3.2 basis points between onshore and offshore rates, reflecting balanced cross-border capital flows and increasing recognition of the RMB exchange rate mechanism [3]. Subtle Adjustments in the Central Parity Rate: Reflection of Policy Intent - The central parity rate for the RMB against the USD was set at 7.1359, down 37 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a policy intention to allow moderate depreciation of the RMB amidst a strong USD index [5]. - The adjustment strategy of alternating between increases and decreases in the central parity rate aims to enhance exchange rate flexibility and prevent excessive volatility that could impact the real economy [5]. External Pressures and Internal Support: Interwoven Factors - The strong USD index is primarily influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is expected to maintain high interest rates, putting pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [6]. - However, the robust fundamentals of the Chinese economy, including recovering industrial production and consumption, provide internal support for the RMB exchange rate [6]. Future Outlook and Risk Management - In the short term, the RMB to USD exchange rate is likely to maintain a two-way fluctuation pattern, with the strong USD exerting pressure while the Chinese economic fundamentals and policy intentions limit depreciation [7]. - In the medium term, a clearer path for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and continued recovery of the Chinese economy may lead to a strengthening of the RMB [7]. - Long-term factors such as the internationalization of the RMB and its increasing weight in the SDR will provide solid support for the exchange rate [7]. Summary: Steady Progress, Promising Future - Overall, the RMB to USD exchange rate on August 19, 2025, demonstrated characteristics of "central parity micro-adjustment and narrow market fluctuations," indicating a mature exchange rate formation mechanism and rational market expectations [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a low - volatility oscillation, waiting for the Fed meeting minutes and the follow - up progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments are expected to make gold oscillate and accumulate strength [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Trump hopes Putin will end the Ukraine war but admits Putin may not want an agreement. Trump proposes "air support" for Ukraine's post - war security and arranges bilateral talks between Russian and Ukrainian presidents. The 24th China - India border issue special representative meeting was held in New Delhi. US July building permits were 1354,000, lower than expected, while new housing starts were 1428,000, higher than expected [2] Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold prices oscillated with low volatility. US new housing starts and building permits were divergent, and the lower - than - expected building permits may imply limited sustainability of the strong new housing starts. Last week's US PPI had the largest monthly increase since 2022, suppressing the expectation of a 50 - basis - point rate cut. US retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month in July, in line with expectations, but inflation expectations rose and consumer confidence fell [3] Future Outlook - Before Powell's departure, his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium may balance inflation, employment, politics, and economy, with vague monetary policy signals. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have not resolved the core differences, mainly due to territorial disputes and Russia's opposition to Western military intervention. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and geopolitical conflicts. The weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot in the range of [36, 40] [4][7][8] Index Information - On August 19, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2223.20, down 0.36%; the commodity 20 index was 2469.40, down 0.26%; the industrial product index was 2256.94, down 0.47%. The precious metal index was 2703.64, with a daily decline of 0.47%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.20% [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes is expected to provide insights into the internal debates and future policy directions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts amid increasing political pressure [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "hawkish-dovish" debate is intensifying under ongoing political pressure [1] - The July meeting minutes will reveal the underlying tensions behind two dissenting votes, which may influence future interest rate decisions [1] - The timing of the release is set for 2 AM, August 20, indicating a significant moment for market participants [1]