Group 1 - Gold stocks have declined again, with China Gold International (02099) down 6.21% to HKD 188.9, Zijin Mining (02899) down 5% to HKD 39.56, Zijin Gold International (02259) down 4.82% to HKD 205.2, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) down 4.77% to HKD 35.9 [1] - Recent volatility in the international gold market has been noted, with a report from Galaxy Securities indicating that expectations of liquidity premium due to perceived loss of Federal Reserve independence and a pullback from recent price surges may lead to a potential increase in gold prices [1] - Dongfang Securities mentioned that the recent nomination of Waller by Trump for the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to market expectations that Waller would support interest rate cuts, but would not adopt aggressive monetary easing policies like other potential nominees, alleviating concerns about Fed independence [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar index is maintaining a strong position due to cautious pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with the index rebounding from a low of 95.36 to over 220 points, reaching a high of 97.605 before entering a consolidation phase [1] - The resilience of the US labor market and the slow pace of inflation decline have not yet reached the threshold for the Federal Reserve to consider easing, leading to a significant correction in previous rapid rate cut expectations [1] - The divergence in monetary policies among major global economies, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, has contributed to the relative strength of the US dollar, highlighting its safe-haven attributes and yield advantages [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the dollar index has established a critical support level at 97.00, which is reinforced by short-term moving averages and previous trading volume, indicating a significant bullish defense [2] - The short-term trading range is identified between 96.84 and 98.66, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a phase of consolidation, suggesting that a strong signal is needed to break the current pattern [2] - Key variables to monitor include upcoming US CPI and non-farm payroll data, which could solidify the high-rate maintenance logic, and the Federal Reserve's policy statements, which will influence market sentiment and the dollar index's trajectory [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **U.S. dollar's strength policy** and its implications on the global market, particularly focusing on the role of the **Federal Reserve** and the **U.S. Treasury** in managing currency values [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **strong dollar policy** is not clearly defined but acknowledges the dollar's critical role in the global market, benefiting the U.S. without specifying exact values or long-term fair value theories [1][2]. - Key factors influencing exchange rates include **interest rate differentials**, **growth rate differences**, and **capital flows**. Direct foreign exchange intervention is a tool for adjusting currency values, but its long-term effectiveness is debated [1][5]. - The **Federal Reserve's dual mandate** aims for maximum sustainable employment and price stability, indicating that it will not use monetary policy tools to achieve specific exchange rate targets in the short term [5]. - **Kevin Walsh**, the new Federal Reserve Chair, is expected to maintain a mainstream policy stance, suggesting no significant changes in the policy response mechanism despite his appointment [5]. Market Predictions - **Morgan Stanley** holds a bearish outlook on the dollar for early 2026, driven by traditional factors like growth expectations and Federal Reserve policies, as well as risk premiums [6][7]. - Recent discussions on foreign exchange intervention have led to a **strengthening of the yen**, with risk premium levels approaching highs seen in the second quarter of the previous year [6][7]. - If the **European Central Bank** and the **Bank of England** signal potential rate cuts, it could exert downward pressure on their currencies against the dollar [7]. Emerging Markets - Many **emerging market central banks** are currently adopting a conservative stance, raising interest rates to combat inflation. However, if their currencies strengthen and domestic conditions allow, these countries may have more room for easing [8]. - Short-term easing could lead to slight currency depreciation, but in a low-volatility global environment, such fluctuations may present buying opportunities as asset managers increase bond holdings, leading to more capital inflows and supporting local currency values [8]. Additional Considerations - The **ambiguity** in U.S. exchange rate policy reflects a deliberate strategy to maintain flexibility in response to market conditions [2]. - The **negative impacts** of the dollar's status as a reserve currency have been acknowledged, particularly in terms of its influence on U.S. foreign policy and sanctions [3]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of U.S. dollar policy, market expectations, and the behavior of emerging market currencies.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward driving force of precious metals remains unchanged. It is recommended that investors continue to go long after the downward momentum of precious metals weakens. However, due to a large influx of investment funds into the precious metals market recently, which has increased price volatility, investors are advised to strictly control their positions to avoid short - term fluctuations [4][5]. - The appointment of the next Fed Chairman by Trump has a reasonable impact on the correction of precious metals. The hawkish stance of the next Fed Chairman may compress the duration rather than the upward space of the medium - term bull market of gold. It is bullish for silver, platinum, and palladium relative to gold. The medium - and long - term upward trend of gold and the medium - term strength of silver, platinum, and palladium compared to gold are maintained. But investors should be vigilant against the medium - term risk that the Fed tightens monetary policy to end the precious metals bull market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Due to the full release of internal adjustment risks attracting some bottom - fishing funds, and the incidents of the US military shooting down an Iranian drone and the twists in the US - Iran meeting, the precious metals sector continued to rebound from the sharp decline at the end of January. On February 3, during the Asian session, London gold returned to $5000 per ounce, and London silver was also approaching $90 per ounce [4]. - **Price Changes**: The previous closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, percentage change, open interest, and change in open interest of precious metal contracts such as the Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index are provided. For example, the Shanghai Gold Index closed at 1,143.37, with a 4.39% increase [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: The appointment of the next Fed Chairman by Trump eliminated the market's hedging demand for this uncertainty, and the hawkish policy stance also alleviated concerns about the out - of - control of US fiscal and economic discipline. The correction of precious metals is reasonable, and the previous sharp rise of precious metals also needed a large pullback to release internal adjustment risks. The hawkish stance has no fundamental impact on the long - term bull market of gold and may mainly affect the duration of the medium - term bull market. It is bullish for silver, platinum, and palladium relative to gold. Since November 2025, a large amount of investment funds have flowed into the precious metals market, increasing price volatility. The annualized volatility of gold and silver calculated based on the rolling prices of the past three months has reached two to three times the historical average [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indexes against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][10]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump signed a spending agreement to end the partial shutdown of the US government, restoring the interrupted appropriations of some institutions and temporarily extending the appropriation for the Department of Homeland Security until February 13 [16]. - About 30 countries want to join a club targeting key mineral trade, with Japan, Australia, and South Korea already joining, and nearly 20 other countries showing strong interest. The club will implement tariff - free trade and exchanges and set a price floor for mineral products [16]. - The Trump administration is implementing the details of the US - India trade agreement into written documents. The agreement will reduce India's tariffs on US industrial products from 13.5% to zero, cancel some tariffs, and allow India to retain some agricultural import protection measures. The US will reduce tariffs on most Indian goods from 50% to 18% [16]. - Iran requested to change the location of the meeting with the US this week to Oman instead of Turkey and narrow the scope of topics to only bilateral nuclear - related talks, which raised doubts about whether the meeting could proceed as planned. The White House said the meeting was still scheduled for later this week [17].

每经记者｜潘婷 每经编辑｜金冥羽 陈星 记者|潘婷 编辑|金冥羽 陈星 杜波 校对|许绍航 在地缘政治不确定性持续发酵、市场对美联储年内降息预期升温的背景下，今年以来，避险资金大举涌入黄金与白银市场。1月份现货黄金价格累涨约 13%，不过，在1月最后一个交易日，黄金一度下跌超11%。 2月2日，国际市场贵金属价格开盘后大幅跳水，纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4423.2美元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌超6%；白银期 货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司71.2美元，下跌超9%。很多投资者冲向水贝黄金市场"买金卖金"。 在经历了暴跌之后，黄金、白银价格2月3日迎来反弹，市场买金卖金是否还火爆？"料商放假""原料没有了""回收一公斤以上就要考虑一下"⋯⋯2月4日， 记者实探深圳水贝黄金市场。 实探水贝：有商家称"原料都没有了" 在经历此前暴跌后，国际金价自2月3日起反弹，并于2月4日收复关键点位，一度重回5000美元/盎司上方，行情可谓"过山车"。 水贝商家给金首饰称重 每经记者 潘婷 摄 《每日经济新闻》记者以客户身份走访深圳水贝市场，一名店家对记者表示："前两天金价回调的时候人很多，这两天金价上涨人就少了。现在 ...

2025年以来国际油价走势 ◎林玉莲 记者 徐锐 回望2025年，全球石油市场主要由供需基本面主导，由紧平衡转向明显过剩。地缘冲突仅对油价形成阶 段性支撑，但未能扭转下跌趋势。 展望2026年国际油价走势，王海博预计，在基本面主导的情况下，布伦特原油期货的均价将处于每桶60 美元至65美元的区间；地缘冲突会是市场最大的变数，在地缘冲突的主导下，这一指标可能会攀升至每 桶70美元至75美元。 具体而言，全球石油库存或延续上涨趋势，进而压制国际油价中枢。王海博称，尽管欧佩克+（产油国 联盟）已决定今年3月继续暂停增产，但考虑到其他国家产量情况，预计2026年全球石油供应仍将增长 130万桶/日，最终达到1.063亿桶/日；反观需求端，预计2026年全球石油需求为1.043亿桶/日，增幅与 2025年基本持平。 2026年，美联储货币政策对油市影响几何？王海博说，市场预期美联储至少降息2次，累计50个基点， 美元指数将进一步下行，但仍难对油价形成有效支撑。 从国内市场来看，2025年，原油产量达2.16亿吨，创下历史新高，2026年原油产量或将保持2亿吨稳 产。就消费端而言，2026年国内石油消费总量基本保持稳定， ...

来源：滚动播报 美国财长贝森特：特朗普有权表达他对美联储货币政策的看法。 ...

Group 1 - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has sparked speculation about a potential hawkish shift in monetary policy, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly in the precious metals sector [1][2] - The recent decline in the US dollar index, which reached a low of 95.36 on January 27, 2022, has positively impacted commodity prices, including copper, as the market anticipated two potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and resource protection policies from major mining countries have intensified the competition for strategic resources, including copper, which is expected to increase physical demand for these metals [5][6] Group 2 - The global copper mining landscape has been affected by disruptions in major mines, leading to a decline in copper concentrate processing fees, which have recently fallen below -50 USD/ton, indicating a fragile supply situation [3][6] - The market's sensitivity to supply disruptions is evident, as seen with the recent production shortfalls from major copper producers, which have contributed to price fluctuations and heightened investor focus on mining operations [3][7] - The strategic importance of copper and other critical minerals is underscored by the US's recent initiatives to procure and store strategic metals, which include copper, to support various industries [5][6]

今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌早间冲高遇阻，午后弱势震荡为主；沪锌2603主力合约开盘价24800元/ 吨，最高价25010元/吨，最低价24720元/吨，昨日结算价24905元/吨，今日收盘价24885元/吨，跌20 元，跌幅0.08%。今日沪锌2603主力合约成交量208461手减少107375手，持仓量79207手减少3084手。 伦锌北京时间14：53最新价报3353美元，涨30美元。 今日ccmn锌价统计：今日ccmn长江综合0#锌价报24860-24960元/吨，均价24910元，跌150元，1#锌价报 24780-24880元/吨，均价24830元，跌150元；广东现货0#锌报24610-24910元/吨，均价24760元，跌170 元，1#锌价24540-24840元/吨，均价24690元，跌170元。今日现货锌市场报价0#锌在24850-24960元/吨 之间，1#锌在24780-24880元/吨之间。对比沪期锌2602合约0#锌贴水100-升水10元/吨，1#锌贴水170-贴 水70元/吨。对比沪期锌2603合约0#锌贴水95-升水15元/吨，1#锌贴水165-贴水65元/吨。 综合来看，市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. Although the upward momentum is insufficient due to the low possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short - term, there is still strong support because of the expected loose monetary and credit environment in the future [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuation and consolidation" with the core logic being the reduced possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "weakening" and a medium - term view of "fluctuation", with a reference view of "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. With the announcement of the new Fed Chairman candidate, the expectation of a hawkish shift in Fed monetary policy has increased. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low, weakening the upward momentum. However, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5].