Core Viewpoint - Due to tariff policies leading to increased retail prices during the holiday season, consumer demand for discounted clothing and accessories has risen, resulting in stronger-than-expected quarterly profits and a robust annual forecast from Ross Stores (ROST.US), which significantly boosted its stock price in after-hours trading [1][2]. Financial Performance - Ross Stores reported a 2% increase in same-store sales for the second quarter, with sales for the three months ending August 2 reaching $5.53 billion, a 2% year-over-year increase, although slightly below the market expectation of $5.57 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $1.56, exceeding market expectations by $0.02 [1]. - The company has revised its full-year EPS forecast to a range of $6.08 to $6.21, which includes an estimated tariff impact of $0.22 to $0.25 per share, while the market expectation stands at $6.10 [1]. Future Outlook - Ross Stores anticipates same-store sales growth of 2% to 3% over the next two quarters, with the upper end of this range representing the largest increase since the beginning of the year [2]. - The company projects third-quarter EPS between $1.31 and $1.37, below the market expectation of $1.47, but expects fourth-quarter EPS to be between $1.74 and $1.81, surpassing the market forecast of $1.69 [1][2]. Market Context - The tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have led to increased prices for imported goods, benefiting discount retailers as consumers become more budget-conscious amid rising inflation [2]. - Other retailers, such as TJX Companies (TJX.US) and Home Depot (HD.US), have also reported positive performance, indicating a broader trend of consumers seeking value [2]. Stock Performance - As of Thursday's close, Ross Stores' stock has declined by 4.4% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which has risen by 8.3% during the same period [3].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On August 21, Japan's long-term government bond yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.61%, the highest since October 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield hit 2.655%, the highest since 1999, while the 30-year yield approached its historical high of 3.2% [1]. - As of 6 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was at 1.616%, the 20-year yield at 2.649%, and the 30-year yield at 3.197% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Yields - The primary driver of rising yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's loss in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [1][3]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [2][4]. - A significant drop in demand for Japanese bonds has been noted, with net purchases of 10-year and longer bonds by overseas investors falling to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, just one-third of June's purchases [2][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market has faced a "disastrous" decline in demand, attributed to rising inflation and potential fiscal stimulus, which increases the burden on Japan's already high leverage [3][6]. - Despite high yields, overseas investors had been attracted to Japanese bonds earlier this year, with net purchases reaching 9.2841 trillion yen in the first seven months, the highest since records began in 2004 [4]. - However, the trend has reversed since July, with concerns over fiscal imbalances and the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the bond market contributing to reduced demand [4][6]. Group 4: Potential Interventions - Experts suggest that if the sell-off continues, the Bank of Japan may intervene to stabilize the bond market, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to its quantitative tightening strategy [7]. - The future trajectory of long-term bond yields will depend on monetary policy direction, fiscal expansion pace, and global interest rate environments [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. manufacturing PMI has expanded at its fastest pace in over three years due to stronger demand, which has also pushed the composite PMI, including services, to its highest level of the year in August [1][7] - The initial reading of the U.S. August Markit manufacturing PMI is 53.3, the highest since May 2022, surpassing expectations of 49.7 and the previous value of 49.8. Both manufacturing output and backlog orders have reached their highest levels since mid-2022, while new orders have risen to their highest level since February 2024 [3][4] - The strong demand has led manufacturers to accelerate hiring, with employment growth reported as the strongest since March 2022 [4] Group 2 - The U.S. August Markit services PMI initial value is 55.4, a two-month low, but still indicates healthy business activity. The sales index has shown the fastest growth of the year, while the unfinished business index remains at its strongest level since May 2022 [6] - The composite PMI for August is 55.4, marking a nine-month high, exceeding expectations of 53.5 and the previous value of 55.1. The report indicates that rising import tariffs have pushed the sales price index to a three-year high, with consumers bearing the cost pressure as service firms' charge index also reaches a three-year peak [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the latest Markit PMI data reflects strong demand in the U.S. as the second half of the year begins, contributing to an optimistic economic outlook but also intensifying ongoing inflationary pressures [7] Group 3 - Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, states that the strong PMI reading for August further indicates robust performance by U.S. businesses in the third quarter, aligning with an annualized growth rate of 2.5%, which is higher than the average growth rate of 1.3% in the first two quarters of the year [8] - Both manufacturing and service sectors report stronger demand, but they face challenges in meeting sales growth, leading to a significant increase in backlog orders and record growth in finished goods inventory due to concerns over future supply conditions [8] - The rebound in demand has spurred a surge in hiring, enhancing companies' pricing power, which has led to increased pass-through of tariff-related cost increases to customers, resulting in inflationary pressures reaching a three-year high [8]

Core Insights - The strong PMI preliminary value for August indicates robust performance of U.S. businesses in the third quarter, with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.5%, surpassing the average growth rate of 1.3% in the first half of the year [1] Economic Indicators - Both manufacturing and services sectors reported stronger demand, leading to a significant increase in unfinished orders at the fastest rate since early 2022 [1] - Record increases in finished goods inventories are partly due to concerns over future supply conditions [1] Employment and Pricing Power - The rebound in demand has driven a surge in hiring, enhancing companies' pricing power [1] - Companies are increasingly passing on the rising costs associated with tariffs to customers, resulting in inflation pressures reaching the highest level in three years [1] Inflation Outlook - The rise in prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will likely exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months [1] - The combination of increased business activity and hiring, along with the reported price increases, brings PMI data closer to the "rate hike zone" [1]

Group 1 - James Bullard, a strong contender for the Federal Reserve chair, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a total reduction of 100 basis points within this year, starting with a cut in September [1][2] - Bullard's stance contrasts with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who maintains a more cautious outlook, expecting only one rate cut this year, reflecting internal policy disagreements within the Fed amid signs of a weak labor market and inflationary pressures [1][3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, with futures contracts indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] Group 2 - Bullard believes the current policy rate is "a bit too high" and emphasizes the need for swift action, indicating that further cuts could follow later this year depending on economic data [2] - Bostic describes the current interest rate level as "marginally" restrictive and suggests that once the Fed begins to adjust rates, it should do so in a consistent direction rather than oscillating [3] - The divergence in views among Fed officials comes at a critical time for policy-making, with Bostic highlighting concerns over recent employment reports and rising wholesale inflation [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,339 per ounce, with a recent high of $3,352 and a low of $3,336, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.26% [1] - After stabilizing in the support range of $3,308-$3,315, gold prices rebounded by about $40, aligning with technical expectations, but the upward momentum appears limited in the short term [3] - The recent earnings report from Home Depot highlights increased import costs due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to price hikes on some products and a downward adjustment in net profit for Q2 and EPS for the year [3] Group 2 - The furniture and home goods import value in the U.S. exceeded $10 billion in Q1, with tariffs exacerbating cost pressures for companies, which may eventually lead to higher consumer prices [3] - The technical outlook for gold indicates that after a significant rise, further upward movement requires a breakthrough in the $3,358-$3,360 range, with stronger resistance at $3,370-$3,375 [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,330 and $3,320, with the market currently in a consolidation phase, necessitating close monitoring of the $3,330-$3,360 range for potential breakout signals [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals rose and then fell. After the recent US - Russia talks made progress, all parties continued to promote a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, putting pressure on market risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals continued to fluctuate and adjust, and investors should patiently wait for the callback to find a layout position [2] - For silver, after the recent repair of the gold - silver ratio, there is a lack of one - way driving force. The overall market risk preference remains strong, and the Russia - Ukraine talks continue to suppress the market's interest in investing in precious metals. There is a short - term need for a correction [3] - The recently released July Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected, showing that although the transmission effect of trade tariffs is limited, inflation pressure still exists. Traders once reduced their bets on a September interest rate cut. However, federal funds futures still show an 83% probability of a September interest rate cut, reflecting the market's persistent expectation of the Fed's loose policy [3] Group 3: Other Key Points - Trump met with Russian President Putin last Friday and then quickly turned to dialogue with Ukrainian President Zelensky and leaders of many European countries on Monday. He clearly stated that the US will "help" Europe provide security guarantees for Ukraine as part of an agreement to end the war. He also launched the preparatory work for the "Putin - Zelensky meeting" and planned a subsequent three - party summit including the US [3]

当地时间8月19日，美国总统特朗普再度"炮轰"美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。他在社交媒体"TruthSocial"发文，称鲍威尔"正在严重伤害房地产行业"，过高的 利率政策让民众无法获得抵押贷款。他直言："通胀没有出现，利率应该大幅下降。'太迟先生'简直是一场灾难！" 此番言论无疑将市场的注意力推向了本周即将在怀俄明州举行的"杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会"。鲍威尔将在会上发表讲话，这很可能是鲍威尔最后一次以美联 储主席身份亮相该会议。 尽管就业市场转弱，但美国7月生产者物价指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，创下自2022年6月以来最大单月涨幅。 这意味着通胀压力仍然是存在的，所以部分经济学家对美联储能否在短期内迅速转向保持犹豫态度。 作为由堪萨斯城联储主办的年度盛会，杰克逊霍尔会议素以央行高官政策表态"风向标"著称。今年会议将于周四晚间开幕，鲍威尔的讲话定于周五上午10点 （北京时间晚10点）。 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束。但特朗普此前已放话，将提前任命新一任美联储主席。 面对着持续的政治压力，鲍威尔仍然维持其一贯立场。美联储在7月议息会议上连续第五次选择维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，并暗示9月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, with a tax rate set at 50%, raising concerns among businesses about increased costs and profit margins [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The U.S. has expanded the coverage of steel and aluminum tariffs, affecting a wide range of products including wind turbines and components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1] - The new tariff will take effect from June 4, increasing the existing tariff on steel and aluminum products imported from all trade partners, except the UK, from 25% to 50% [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - Companies are worried that the 50% tariff will significantly impact their operations, with potential for heavy financial strain [1] - According to a professor from Michigan State University, the expanded steel and aluminum tariff list could affect imports worth at least $320 billion based on 2024 overall import values, further increasing inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Strategic Shift - The Vice President of Customs Affairs at DSV International Transport indicated that the 50% tariff represents not just a tariff issue but a strategic shift in the U.S. regulatory approach to steel and aluminum derivative products [1]