Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) needs to remain flexible in adjusting interest rates as inflation pressures are under control, with the eurozone inflation rate at the target level of 2% and France's at a lower rate of 0.9% [1] Group 1 - ECB's Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau emphasized the importance of keeping an open stance on future monetary policy decisions [1] - The market is gradually reducing the likelihood of a final rate cut in the current cycle [1] - Villeroy noted that the increase in U.S. tariffs, the extent of which remains unclear, is not expected to lead to rising inflation [1] Group 2 - The appreciation of the euro is having a significant downward effect on inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in U.S. inflation as indicated by the June CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in the previous month, primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices. The Federal Reserve may need more time to assess the situation before making further decisions on interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact global financial markets in the second half of the year [1][19]. Inflation Data Summary - The June CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, compared to a previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.6%. The month-on-month increase is 0.3%, up from 0.1% previously [2][3]. - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% previously, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5][15]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI increased to 3.17% year-on-year, up from 3.03%, indicating a rise in inflation breadth and stickiness [5][6]. Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rebounding significantly. The impact of retail gasoline prices, which typically lag behind crude oil price fluctuations, is expected to continue into July [3][5]. - Food prices remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by a rise in household food prices [5]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with various categories such as furniture and appliances showing significant increases. However, prices for clothing and vehicles remain below trend lines [10][11]. - Core services saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with super core services (excluding housing) also showing a rebound, indicating some recovery in demand [15][16]. Impact of Tariffs - The article highlights that tariffs are beginning to show an impact on inflation, but the effect is currently moderate. The expected overall impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to be around 80 basis points [17][18]. - Companies are employing various strategies to mitigate tariff costs, including price adjustments, renegotiating with suppliers, and diversifying supply chains [14][18]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the moderate inflation impact and the weakening job market before making decisions on interest rate cuts. The consensus is leaning towards a potential rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year [17][20]. - Recent comments from key Fed officials suggest a more dovish stance, indicating that even if inflation rises due to tariffs, it may not delay rate cuts [20]. Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market has shown mixed performance, with technology stocks benefiting from certain market expectations, while financial stocks have faced adjustments due to disappointing earnings reports [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with current trading around the support levels established previously [1][4] - COMEX gold prices have declined to $3371.3 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.77%, while domestic SHFE gold prices are reported at 778.08 yuan per gram, down 0.78% [3] - The latest PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5, below expectations, while the services PMI is at 55.2, indicating a reliance on the service sector for economic growth [3] Group 2 - The weekly chart suggests that gold prices are expected to remain within the range of $3000 to $3500 for the second half of the year, with potential upward movement anticipated next year [4] - Short-term trading strategies should focus on the support and resistance levels, with key support identified at $3350 or $3335 and resistance at $3382 or $3393 [5]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently under pressure, trading around $3368, following a decline influenced by optimistic global trade sentiment and strong economic data [1] - On July 24, gold prices fell approximately 0.55%, closing at $3368.35 per ounce, as market optimism regarding trade agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The unexpected improvement in US labor market data has strengthened the US dollar and Treasury yields, further exerting downward pressure on gold prices [1] - President Trump’s rare visit to the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, despite his assurance that he would not dismiss Chairman Powell [1] - The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% during the upcoming meeting, although expectations for a rate cut in September remain [1] Economic Data - The latest data from the US Labor Department shows that initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest level in three months, indicating a solid labor market despite a slowdown in hiring [3] - The S&P Global Composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [3] - The strengthening of the dollar and rising Treasury yields have diminished gold's investment appeal, as gold typically performs poorly in high-interest-rate environments [3] - Approximately 40% of service providers and nearly half of manufacturers attribute price increases to tariff policies, suggesting rising inflationary pressures [3] - There are warnings that consumer price inflation may exceed the Fed's 2% target in the coming months, further reducing expectations for a rate cut [3] Global Trade Situation - Signs of easing global trade tensions have contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices, with the US and Japan reaching a trade agreement that lowers auto import tariffs to 15% [4] - Positive developments in US-EU trade negotiations are also noted, with expectations of a potential agreement that includes a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [4] - The easing of trade tensions has led investors to favor higher-risk assets, such as equities, over traditional safe-haven assets like gold [4] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that discussions regarding extending trade agreement negotiations with China are set to take place next week, further boosting market confidence [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The combination of strong US economic data and improved trade sentiment may suppress gold prices in the short term, but caution remains as the Trump administration's tariff deadlines approach [5] - Market participants are advised to monitor upcoming employment data and the Federal Reserve's decisions, as well as developments related to Trump and geopolitical situations [5]

Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement to reduce auto import tariffs to 15% and exempt certain goods from punitive tariffs. Additionally, positive progress in U.S.-EU trade talks is expected to lead to a deal with a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [3] - Strong economic data has boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000, the lowest in three months, and the composite PMI and services PMI both rising in July, indicating accelerated economic activity. This has led to a stronger dollar index (up 0.3%) and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.408%, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3] - President Trump's rare visit to the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, which could provide medium to long-term support for gold prices. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September [4] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. June durable goods orders, which is an important indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health, likely to impact gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weakening trend after forming three consecutive bullish candles, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed. The price has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [5] - Key support levels to monitor include 3339, the lower boundary of the current upward channel, and 3324, a trendline support formed by previous lows. Resistance is significantly higher at around 3450, making a rebound to this level unlikely in the short term [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a series of bearish candles, with a slight recovery after hitting 3351. Confirmation of the 3351 low is crucial; if the price rebounds above this level, resistance can be identified at 3393/3395 and 3402/3406. A drop below 3351 would lead to a focus on the daily support levels mentioned [6] - The one-hour chart suggests that gold may be in a corrective phase, with potential for a rebound from the recent low at 3351. The structure indicates that if the price breaks above key resistance levels, it could signal a shift in trend direction [7]

Core Insights - The latest PMI data indicates a strong start for the U.S. economy in Q3, but there are significant uncertainties regarding the sustainability of this growth [1] Economic Growth - The current economic growth is heavily reliant on the services sector, while the manufacturing sector has experienced its first deterioration of the year [1] - The decline in manufacturing is partly attributed to the fading effects of short-term purchases driven by tariff expectations [1] Business Confidence - Business confidence in both manufacturing and services has decreased, reaching one of the lowest levels in two and a half years [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflationary pressures are rising, with companies attributing cost and price increases to tariffs [1] - The price increase for goods and services in July was one of the largest in the past three years, suggesting that consumer price inflation may exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Airlines reported a second-quarter revenue of $7.24 billion, slightly below the expected $7.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.43, lower than the anticipated $0.53. The company expects economic turmoil to consume up to $1 billion of its annual pre-tax profit, leading to a significant reduction in its 2025 shareholder return forecast [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s second-quarter revenue was $7.24 billion, slightly below the expected $7.3 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.43, lower than the analyst expectation of $0.53 [1] - Southwest Airlines anticipates a pre-tax profit of $600 million to $800 million for 2025, down from an earlier estimate of $1.7 billion [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Competition - Southwest Airlines provided a more cautious outlook compared to larger competitors like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, which reported a recovery in travel demand [2] - Factors such as frequent tariff policies, inflation pressures, and operational chaos at some hub airports have negatively impacted consumer confidence and demand [2] - Delta Airlines noted improvements in corporate travel demand, while United Airlines indicated that demand recovery could lead to exceeding its 2025 profit targets [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a significant transformation plan, moving away from its long-standing "one-size-fits-all" business model [2] - Southwest Airlines plans to introduce more spacious premium seating, designated seating services, and new boarding processes starting next year [2] - The company has begun charging for checked baggage since May, with the initiative exceeding expectations without negatively impacting flight operations [3] Group 4: Revenue Projections - Southwest Airlines expects a unit revenue growth range of -2% to 2% for the third quarter, compared to analysts' previous expectation of a 1.7% increase [4] - The company aims to achieve $1.8 billion in pre-tax profit by 2025 and $4.3 billion by 2026 through cost reductions and increased revenue from new fare packages and service fees [3] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - The board of Southwest Airlines has approved a $2 billion stock buyback plan, expected to be completed within two years [5]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around South Korean farmers' concerns regarding potential agricultural market openings in trade negotiations between South Korea and the United States, particularly the import of American apples as a bargaining chip [1][3] - Indonesian and Japanese governments are also considering opening their agricultural markets in negotiations with the U.S., raising alarms among South Korean farmers who fear becoming collateral damage in these talks [1] - The South Korean government has stated that rice and U.S. beef over 30 months old will not be included in the negotiations to protect food security and livestock stability, while apples and genetically modified crops are viewed as negotiable items [3][4] Group 2 - The apple production in Gyeongsangbuk-do, a major apple-producing region in South Korea, amounts to 824.7 billion KRW (approximately 4.29 billion RMB), accounting for over 60% of the national output [4] - There are over 18,000 farming households in Gyeongsangbuk-do, with a total cultivation area of 19,000 hectares, indicating the region's significant reliance on apple farming [4] - The local council in Gyeongsangbuk-do has warned that opening the market to U.S. apples could lead to an "irreversible fatal blow" to the national fruit industry, exacerbating existing challenges faced by farmers [4][5] Group 3 - The high prices of apples in South Korea highlight structural issues within the agricultural sector, with apple prices reportedly close to three times the OECD average [5] - Rising food prices are attributed to high distribution and labor costs, as well as climate change impacts, which have led to significant crop reductions this year [5] - The volatility in agricultural prices is becoming more pronounced due to extreme weather conditions, revealing the increasing fragility of the agricultural industry in South Korea [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has shifted its focus back to tariffs and trade following the passage of the "Great American Rescue Plan," with a series of high-intensity tariff actions initiated in early July [1] Tariff Actions - Trump announced three rounds of tariffs from July 7 to 10, targeting 14 countries with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%, 8 countries with tariffs from 20% to 50%, and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, along with a unified tariff of 15% or 20% for other countries [1] - The effective average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to stabilize around 15-16% in the near future, with most newly notified countries having a negligible impact on the overall effective tax rate [1][2] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of new tariffs, major asset prices remained stable, with the U.S. stock market reaching new highs and the long-term U.S. Treasury yield rising slightly to around 4.4% [5] - Investors appear to be desensitized to Trump's tariff policies, viewing them more as negotiation tactics rather than significant threats [5] Tariff Revenue - U.S. tariff revenue surged to $26.6 billion in June, quadrupling the usual level, with total revenue for the first half of the year reaching $87.2 billion [5] - The 10% baseline tariff has generated over $17.7 billion in revenue, with specific tariffs on the automotive sector contributing more than $10.7 billion [5] Future Projections - Analysts predict that if the average effective tariff rate remains between 10-14%, it could yield annual tariff revenues of $300 billion to $400 billion, potentially offsetting the increased spending from the "Great American Rescue Plan," which is estimated to add $340 billion annually [6] - The effective tariff rate is projected to be around 2.3% by the end of 2024, with potential increases if new tariffs are fully implemented [6][10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The impact of tariffs on inflation appears limited, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in June, lower than earlier in the year [11] - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts due to the potential for tariffs to exert lasting inflationary pressure, with expectations for a rate hold in July and a possible cut in September [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite rising calls for interest rate cuts from President Trump and speculation about the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the Fed's policy rate outlook remains largely unchanged due to increasing inflation pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, as inflation data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.4% to 2.7% in June [2] - The trend of declining commodity prices is reversing, contributing to overall inflation and suggesting that businesses may be passing some costs onto consumers [2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that inflation may be at a "turning point," with nearly half of the goods experiencing annualized price increases of 5% or more, double the rate from January [2] - Fed officials project that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3% by the end of the year, but they only anticipate a 0.5 percentage point rate cut, which is significantly less than market expectations [2] - There is a general consensus among Fed officials against aggressive rate cuts, maintaining a cautious stance amid ongoing inflationary pressures [2] Group 3 - The US dollar index is facing key resistance in the 97.80-98.00 range, which coincides with recent highs and the upper boundary of a descending wedge pattern, creating multiple technical pressure points [3] - Momentum indicators show mild bullish signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering to near the neutral zone of 50, indicating a restoration of market momentum, though it has not yet reached overbought conditions [3]