Core Insights - International gold prices have reached new highs, with jewelry gold prices also rising significantly during the recent holidays [1][2] - The market anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, coupled with a weakening dollar, which supports gold prices [1][4] Price Trends - Jewelry gold prices have generally surpassed 1100 RMB per gram, with major brands quoting around 1130 RMB per gram during the National Day holiday [2] - Specific quotes include Chow Tai Fook at 1129 RMB per gram and Lao Feng Xiang at 1131 RMB per gram, with investment gold priced at 999 RMB per gram [2] Promotional Activities - During the holiday period, various brands offered discounts, with some promotions reducing the price of gold by 160 RMB per gram [2][3] - Discounts included 8% off on certain gold items and buy-one-get-one-free offers on diamond products [3] Market Analysis - Analysts from Galaxy Securities suggest that the trend of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve is established, which may lead to increased global ETF holdings in gold, further driving up prices [4] - The World Gold Council reported a significant increase in global gold ETF holdings, with a notable rise of nearly 27 tons in a single day [4] Future Outlook - UBS forecasts a bullish trend in the gold market, predicting prices could reach 4200 USD per ounce by mid-2026 due to factors like a weakening dollar and increased central bank purchases [5] - Tianfeng Securities identifies three key factors supporting precious metals: safe-haven demand, ongoing central bank purchases, and inflation expectations [5] Short-term Risks - Some experts caution about potential short-term risks, noting that gold prices are currently high and may experience corrections [5]

Group 1 - International gold prices have recently reached new highs, with jewelry gold prices also rising significantly, surpassing 1100 yuan per gram during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1][2] - As of October 3, COMEX gold closed at 3912.1 USD per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 2.71% [1] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with a weakening dollar, are providing additional support for gold prices [1][4] Group 2 - Major jewelry brands have set gold prices around 1130 yuan per gram during the holiday period, with promotional activities in place despite high prices [2][3] - Discounts offered during the holiday include significant reductions on gold jewelry, with some brands providing up to 160 yuan off per gram [2][3] - The global gold ETF holdings have seen the fastest growth in three years, with a notable increase of nearly 27 tons in a single day, driven by inflows from North America and Europe [4] Group 3 - UBS forecasts a bullish trend in the gold market, predicting prices could reach 4200 USD per ounce by mid-2026, supported by a weaker dollar and increased central bank purchases [5] - Factors supporting precious metals include heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to economic uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases [5] - Inflation expectations, while not the primary driver currently, could enhance gold's value as an inflation hedge if persistent high inflation occurs in the U.S. [5]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs. The Dow rose by 1.1%, the Nasdaq by 1.32%, and the S&P 500 by 1.09% during the week [1] - On Friday, the Dow closed up 238.56 points, or 0.51%, at 46,758.28 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 63.54 points, or 0.28%, to 22,780.51 points. The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.44 points, or 0.01%, to 6,715.79 points [1] Individual Stock Movements - USA Rare Earth saw a significant increase of 14.3%, while Nano Nuclear Energy rose by 6.7%. In contrast, Tesla fell by 1.4%, Ford gained 3.6%, AMD dropped approximately 3%, and Intel decreased by 1.26% [1] - Walmart's fintech subsidiary OnePay plans to launch cryptocurrency services, allowing users to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum, enhancing its "super app" strategy [9] European Market Performance - The DAX30 index in Germany fell by 50.90 points, or 0.21%, while the FTSE 100 in the UK rose by 59.32 points, or 0.63%. The CAC40 in France increased by 24.91 points, or 0.31% [2] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.7% to nearly $61 per barrel, but fell by 7.4% over the week. Brent crude oil also saw a slight increase of 0.7%, closing at $64.53 per barrel [2] - Spot gold increased by 0.81% to $3,886.71 per ounce, with HSBC predicting a potential rise above $4,000 per ounce due to geopolitical risks and fiscal uncertainties [3] Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs reported a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 224,000, indicating a rise from the previous week's 218,000 [4] - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation and employment, with discussions on adjusting monetary policy based on housing costs and economic uncertainties [5][6] Corporate Tax Proposals - Senator Bernie Moreno indicated that President Trump is considering significant tariff reductions for U.S. auto production, which could alleviate costs for major manufacturers like Ford and Tesla [7] Major Bank Ratings - Wells Fargo raised the target price for Ford from $8 to $10, while Deutsche Bank lowered Procter & Gamble's target price from $177 to $175 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, indicated that he may adjust his inflation outlook if housing costs unexpectedly rise, acknowledging that his stance differs from mainstream views and is not fixed [1] Group 1: Inflation and Housing Costs - Miran downplayed the risk of tariffs driving inflation, suggesting that stricter immigration policies and average rent trends could suppress housing inflation [1] - He stated that if certain events indicate that the expected channels are ineffective and rent surges significantly, he would need to revise his mild inflation forecast [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - Miran voted against the recent Federal Reserve decision to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, advocating for a more substantial cut of 0.5 percentage points [1] - He called for a series of aggressive rate cuts to bring the benchmark policy rate to what he considers a neutral level, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity [1] Group 3: Employment Market and Future Predictions - Amid signs of weakness in the job market, policymakers are increasingly acknowledging the need for further rate cuts, although some remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and inflation still exceeding the Fed's 2% target [1] - According to the median forecast from last month's meeting, Federal Reserve officials expect two additional rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each by the end of 2025 [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Miran, who joined the Federal Reserve Board in September, faced scrutiny regarding his previous role in the White House and the potential political influence on Fed decisions [2] - He emphasized that since his confirmation, he has not communicated with Trump and has not been directed to take specific policy actions, asserting his role is to bring fresh, non-mainstream perspectives to the Fed [2] - When asked about broader reforms at the Fed, Miran stated that such matters should ultimately be addressed by Congress rather than himself [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Smilan indicated that he would adjust his inflation outlook if housing costs unexpectedly rise, acknowledging that his non-consensus view is not fixed [1] Group 1: Housing Costs and Inflation - Smilan pointed out that stricter immigration policies implemented by President Trump and trends in average rent could potentially suppress housing inflation [1] - He emphasized that if certain events indicate that the expected channels are ineffective and lead to significant rent increases, his moderate inflation forecast would need to be revised [1]

在国内层面，2025年二季度实际GDP增速由一季度的4.8%加快至5.0%。据此，2024/25财年平均增速为 4.4%，高于2023/24财年的2.4%，主要由非石油制造业、旅游业与贸易的正向贡献所驱动。尽管增速加 快，产出仍略低于潜在水平，意味着当前增长轨迹在短期内将继续支持通胀回落的预测路径；鉴于现行 货币政策立场，需求侧通胀压力预计仍受限。 通胀方面，2025年8月居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅由7月的13.9%放缓至12.0%；核心通胀亦由7 月的11.6%降至8月的10.7%。这一回落反映了当月总体与核心通胀均较温和的环比表现（分别为0.4%与 0.1%），主要受食品价格回落与非食品价格相对稳定所推动。过去三个月价格广泛降温，显示通胀预 期改善，既往冲击的滞后影响正逐步消退。 在此背景下，央行估计三季度平均通胀将延续放缓，区间在12%—13%，低于上一季度的15.2%。中期 看，通胀料继续趋缓，但节奏或放慢，因非食品通胀下行粘性较强，加之既定及超预期的财政措施可能 带来影响。据此，2025年整体通胀或平均在14%左右，并于2026年四季度向央行目标区间收敛。尽管如 此，通胀前景仍面临内外部上行 ...

英国企业预计通胀率将在未来数年维持在目标水平以上 这些调查结果将为支持维持利率不变的英国央行决策者提供依据，因为通胀率仍顽固地高于2%的目标。 外部货币政策委员凯瑟琳·曼本周警告称，持续通胀的情景正在上演，而她的同事梅根·格林则表示，"大部分反通胀过程可能已经完成。" 智通财经APP获悉，根据英国央行的一项调查，英国企业仍预计消费者价格将继续以近乎英国央行目标水平两倍的速度上涨，这加剧了市场对通胀粘性的担 忧。 接受英国央行上月调查的首席财务官们表示，他们预计未来12个月通胀率为3.4%，与一个月前持平。这一预期上次处于更高水平是在2023年12月，就在新 冠疫情后的价格压力浪潮开始缓解之前。 英国央行的"决策者小组"调查还显示，企业计划在未来一年将价格提高3.7%，高于8月份计划的3.5%。 央行行长安德鲁·贝利及其同事在何时(甚至是否)再次放松货币政策的问题上分歧日益加大。政策制定者正在权衡日益恶化的劳动力市场与顽固的工资增长， 以及食品成本飙升推高的家庭通胀预期。 他们可能会密切关注企业的通胀预期，以寻找未来价格压力的线索。副行长莎拉·布里登在本周的一次演讲中强调，有证据表明，企业对未来工资增长的影 响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has cut interest rates by 100 basis points, marking the fourth rate cut this year, in response to a stronger local currency and declining inflation rates, which are at their lowest since 2022 [1][2][3] Monetary Policy Changes - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has reduced the overnight deposit rate to 21% and the overnight lending rate to 22% [1][6] - This decision is part of a broader strategy to ease the financial burden on the heavily indebted nation and stimulate local investment [2][3] Inflation Trends - Inflation has been decreasing for three consecutive months, with the consumer price index rising by only 12% in August, down from a peak of 38% in September 2023 [2][8] - The core inflation rate also fell to 10.7% in August, indicating a trend of easing price pressures [2][8] Economic Outlook - The Central Bank anticipates that inflation will continue to slow down, projecting an average inflation rate of around 14% for 2025, with a target of 7% (±2 percentage points) by the fourth quarter of 2026 [8] - The stronger Egyptian pound, bolstered by increased foreign investment and tourism, is expected to help alleviate price pressures in this import-dependent economy [3][5] Future Considerations - Economists predict that this may be the last rate cut in the short term, as the government plans to raise fuel prices later in October, which could introduce new inflationary pressures [2][5] - The Central Bank will continue to monitor economic conditions and adjust policies as necessary to maintain price stability [8]

The Reserve Bank of India’s October policy was a close call with growing clamour for easing of policy rates as India’s growth outlook has become more uncertain. India’s real GDP growth outlook is caught between the tailwinds of the GST rate cuts and the headwinds of the US’s steep tariffs. Meanwhile, inflation remains subdued, led by deceleration in food inflation. Despite the heightened uncertainty on India’s growth, RBI on Wednesday maintained status quo on policy rates and retained its neutral stance. T ...

Core Insights - The Hungarian Forint has recently reached its highest point in two years, with expectations for its appreciation against the Euro to continue through the remainder of 2025, potentially alleviating inflation expectations [1][4] Currency Exchange Rate Forecast - MBH Bank predicts that the average exchange rate of the Hungarian Forint against the Euro will be 401 in 2025, with an end-of-year rate of 397.5. For 2026, the average exchange rate is expected to reach 400.3 [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Hungarian economy is currently supported by the service, retail, and hospitality sectors, while adverse weather has impacted agriculture and weak demand has affected industry. GDP growth is forecasted at 0.8% for 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026, driven by external demand and new investments, potentially reaching 3% [5] Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank anticipates an average inflation rate of 4.5% for 2025, decreasing to 3.9% in 2026. The core inflation rate fell to 3.9% in August, the lowest in four years. The benchmark interest rate has been maintained at 6.5% for over a year, with no changes expected before the end of 2025. However, anticipated rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may provide room for easing in Hungary, with projections of a decline to 6.0% by the end of 2026 and 5.0% by 2027 [6] Fiscal Deficit and Labor Market Trends - The government deficit is expected to be 4.6% of GDP in 2025, an improvement from 4.9% the previous year. Employment is projected to continue growing, with an average unemployment rate of 4.4% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. Despite the Forint's strength supporting disinflation, the government plans to gradually lift "price guarantee caps" in the second half of 2026, which may temporarily boost inflation [7]