➢ 自主乘用车同比销量稳步提升 新能源大幅增长。4 月公司自主乘用车批发 销量 10.9 万辆，同比-11.1%，环比-33.9%。新能源方面，4 月自主新能源批发 销量为 6.2 万辆, 同比+19.8%，环比-28.9%；1-4 月累计批发 25.6 万辆，同比 +41.9%。其中 4 月深蓝销量 2.0 万辆，同比+58.0%，环比-17.4%；阿维塔 11,681 辆，同比+122.6%，环比+11.5%。展望 2025 年，集团销量目标为 300 万辆， 新能源销量目标为 100 万辆，后续公司将推出深蓝 S09 等全新产品，保证燃油 基盘的同时加速电动化转型。 长安汽车（000625.SZ）系列点评二十六 阿维塔+深蓝发力 新能源产品周期强劲 2025 年 05 月 06 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司发布 4 月产销快报：集团 4 月批发销量为 19.1 万辆，同比 -9.3%，环比-28.9%；1-4 月累计批发 89.6 万辆，同比-0.7%；自主乘用车 4 月 批发销量为 10.9 万辆，同比-11.1%，环比-33.9%；1-4 月累计批发 56.2 万辆， 同比+0.3%；长安福特 4 月批发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, but faced a decline in net profit and profitability margins, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability despite increased sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.084 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 42 million yuan, down 28.01% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 28 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 47.36% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.71%, a decline of 8.49 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin stood at 4.01%, down 3.88 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost Control - The company demonstrated effective cost control with the following expense ratios: - Sales expense ratio: 3.10%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Management expense ratio: 5.08%, down 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] - R&D expense ratio: 4.56%, up 0.67 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Financial expense ratio: 0.25%, down 0.84 percentage points year-on-year [2] Global Expansion and Capacity Layout - The company is actively pursuing product innovation and category expansion, particularly in the automotive sector, with products like automotive inductors and power supplies gaining market recognition and driving revenue growth [3] - The company has successfully established production bases in Huainan, China, Malaysia, and Thailand, enhancing its capacity for overseas market expansion [3] - Ongoing construction of facilities in the United States and Mexico is progressing as planned, further strengthening the company's global capacity layout [3] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 5.833 billion yuan, 6.865 billion yuan, and 7.677 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.75%, 17.68%, and 11.83% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 390 million yuan, 498 million yuan, and 618 million yuan, with growth rates of 33.24%, 27.82%, and 24.10% respectively [4] - The company anticipates further growth in overseas revenue and a recovery in profitability, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

宏观策略·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 一季度受益于抢出口，中国经济增速达 5.4%，出口增速显著，但 4 月美 国订单锐减。尽管转口贸易支撑了 4 月出口，但美国经济软数据衰退预示 外需疲软，预计 6 月出口将明显下降，三季度压力或将增大。 • 企业普遍预期关税不会持久，因美国短期内难寻替代产能且消费习惯难改。 特朗普已释放积极信号，中美或通过非美国家间接博弈，中国正深化与欧 洲等关系，中美谈判时间表或将确定。 • 关税增加导致中国企业出口成本上升，尤其影响电子、家电等全球营销产 品。应对策略包括转嫁成本、产能转移至东南亚/印度、转口贸易、建立海 外仓及拆分产品价值等避税手段。 • 中国企业正采取多元化市场战略和深度本土化措施，通过在东南亚、印度 等地建厂供应美国市场，同时保留中国作为全球供应中心，以降低单一市 场依赖并增强抗风险能力。 • 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利改善，全 A 非金融板块累计同比增速显著提升， 但单季度营收仍有波动。创业板盈利明显改善，科创 50 业绩加速下滑， TMT 板块表现优秀，传统消费行业相对优异。 Q&A 美国关税政策对中国企业的影响如何，以及企 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 张璐 在原料药、制剂垂直一体化的产业链优势下，华海药业（600521.SH）盈利能力保持稳定增长。 近日，华海药业发布2024年度业绩报告，报告期内，公司实现营收95.47亿元，同比增长14.91%；净利 润为11.19亿元，同比增长34.74%。 长江商报记者注意到，华海药业持续推进全球销售网络建设。2024年，公司原料药业务销售收入36.46 亿元，同比增长15.39%，覆盖全球上百个国家和地区，新增客户超150家，国际化布局进一步深化。 同时，华海药业坚持创新驱动战略，2022年—2024年研发费用逐年上涨，累计达28.96亿元。 海外营收占比达47.27% 华海药业发布的2024年度业绩报告显示，2024年，公司实现营收95.47亿元，同比增长14.91%；实现净 利润11.19亿元，同比增长34.74%；实现扣非净利润11.29亿元，同比增长27.10%。 具体来看，面对全球经济变化及国内政策调整，华海药业采取了以"聚焦核心战略，全面精益增效"的发 展策略。2024年，公司中间体原料药业务实现销售收入36.46亿元，同比增长15.39%，该业务营收占比 达到38.19% ...

风险因素：全球贸易摩擦加剧，产能投放不及预期，未来关税变动风险 盈利能力优化，营运能力健康。25Q1 公司毛利率/归母净利率18.9%/11.1%（同比+0.6/+0.1pct），销售/ 管理/研发费用率分别为1.9%/2.4%/0.9%（同比+0.1/-0.1/-0.4pct）。截至25Q1 末存货/应收/应付账款周转 天数分别为42/70/37 天（同比-2/+6/-5 天），营运能力稳健。经营性现金流净额为0.72亿元（同比+0.38 亿元），现金流改善。 盈利预测：我们预计公司2025-2027 年实现归母净利润2.2、2.6、3.1 亿元，对应PE 分别为15、13、 11X。 事件：公司发布24&25Q1 业绩。2024 年公司实现收入 17.98 亿元（同比+34.4%），归母净利润2.15 亿 元（同比+108.3%）；单24Q4 收入4.82 亿元（同比+37.2%），归母净利润0.64 亿元（同比+304.4%）； 25Q1 实现收入4.85 亿元（同比+26.6%），归母净利润0.54 亿元（同比+28.0%），收入&利润保持稳健 增长。我们预计受关税影响，美国客户下单或受到一定干扰，收 ...

A股公司赴港上市队伍进一步扩大。仅4月22日至4月28日，就有8家A股公司向香港交易及结算所有限公 司（以下简称"港交所"）递表。《证券日报》记者根据公司公告及递表情况统计，截至5月5日，有46家 A股公司拟赴港上市。其中，已向港交所递表并获得中国证监会境外发行上市备案通知书的A股公司有7 家。 在政策支持、港股吸引力提升等多重因素推动下，越来越多的公司谋求赴港上市，以期拓展国际业务版 图、优化融资渠道、提升全球影响力。 消费、科技公司占多数 上述拟赴港上市的A股公司大多来自消费、科技等行业。例如，佛山市海天调味食品股份有限公司、东 鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司、安井食品集团股份有限公司都是国内知名的消费品公司。宁德时代新能 源科技股份有限公司、蓝思科技股份有限公司、浙江三花智能控制股份有限公司、江苏恒瑞医药股份有 限公司则来自新能源、芯片、医药等科技产业。 "消费零售企业赴港上市的主要驱动因素包括企业的国际化扩张战略、吸引国际投资者优化股东结构， 以及香港资本市场在后续融资和股权激励方面更具灵活性等。"高盛亚洲（除日本外）消费零售主管兼 并购主管Sushil Bathija表示，多数消费零售企业现金流充沛、盈 ...

作者｜宸汐 编辑｜天宇 今年五一小长假，香港终于又火了。 据香港特区政府入境事务处数据显示，"五一"假期首日，香港录得超过102万人次出入境，入境人次逾54万，其中内地旅客约22万人次。而节前该机构曾估 算，今年五一黄金周预计约有571万人次（包括香港居民及访客）经各海、陆、空管制站进出香港。 激增的入境游客，大概率将带动香港旅游、餐饮、交通、酒店等行业收入增长，并提升尖沙咀、中环等商圈的营业额。 值得注意的是，相比于线下入境消费于五一爆火，香港本地市民的线上消费习惯早已在五一前发生巨大变化。尤其是今年3月起，淘宝、京东、拼多多等电 商巨头不约而同加快在香港特区的落子布局，先后落地"包邮"、"补贴"等政策，京东甚至打出了"全港比价、买贵就赔"的比价口号，有效促进了香港特区电 商业务的发展。 实际上，自内地电商平台相继推出"包邮到港"服务后，一箱箱标着"包邮区"的快递从深圳、广州等集运仓涌入香港，掀起了一股前所未有的"反向海淘"浪 潮。过去习惯线下购物的中国香港消费者，正以惊人的速度转向内地电商平台。部分香港自提点随即成为"爆仓重灾区"，"打蛇饼"排长队提货，在香港街头 已经屡见不鲜。 淘宝自2024年9月便率 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff policy of a 145% increase on Chinese toys in 2025 has drawn global attention, yet the Chinese toy industry has shown remarkable resilience, thriving amidst challenges and becoming an indispensable part of the global supply chain [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Resilience - 75% of U.S. toy imports in 2024 are sourced from China, with even higher percentages for Christmas decorations and plush toys, indicating that U.S. retailers like Walmart and Target are willing to absorb costs to maintain orders from Chinese suppliers due to the irreplaceable nature of the Chinese supply chain [3] - The complete supply chain of the Chinese toy industry, developed over 40 years, includes raw materials, assembly, and logistics, creating a closed-loop system that enhances efficiency [6] Group 2: Innovation and Market Adaptation - Chinese toys have moved beyond the "cheap labor" label, leveraging innovative designs and high-value products to capture the high-end market [4] - The "blind box" trend has seen significant global success, with companies like Pop Mart experiencing a 480% surge in overseas market sales, demonstrating the effectiveness of youth-oriented designs [6] Group 3: Global Expansion and Risk Diversification - Chinese toy companies are actively diversifying their operations to mitigate risks associated with tariffs, including expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia and tapping into emerging markets [5] - New markets in Central Asia and South America are seeing a surge in orders, with inquiries from Indian and South Korean buyers doubling at trade fairs [6] Group 4: Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Market - U.S. retailers and consumers are facing the consequences of the tariff policy, with prices for Christmas trees doubling and significant shortages of toys anticipated for the holiday season [6] - The American toy industry has struggled with local production attempts, failing due to a lack of skilled labor and supporting supply chains, leading to a decade of unsuccessful localization efforts [6]

事件：25Q1 公司实现营收、归母净利和扣非归母净利分别为44.8、7.3、7.4 亿元，分别同比+32.4%、 +108.5%、+342.5%，公司业绩落于快报区间偏上限。 结构性复价落地，公司扣非业绩大幅提升。25Q1 风电、热塑等中高端领域需求旺盛，电子布景气有所 改善，预计带动公司粗纱、电子布产销同比较快增长。价格方面，据卓创资讯，25Q1 缠绕直接纱 2400tex 均价同比+22.8%，环比+2.0%。24 年末针对风电纱（提价15-20%）、热塑短切（提价10-15%） 等长协产品的提价在25Q1 得以有序落地执行，叠加公司单位生产成本的优化，预计25Q1 粗纱、电子布 单位净利环比进一步改善。2 月底7628 电子布报价上调约0.3 元/米，后续业绩反映或更充分。 公司全球化布局对冲关税风险。中国是全球玻纤核心供应国，24 年国内玻纤产量756 万吨，出口占比 27%，其中对美出口24.6 万吨（占出口比例12%）。美国玻纤本土产能预计在120 万吨左右，对中国进 口依存度较高。 公司从国内直接出口美国的销量有限，面对贸易摩擦，公司可以通过埃及基地40 万吨产能转口，美国 本土9.6 万吨产能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong order performance for the Wanjie M8 model as a key factor for the rating adjustment [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve robust performance in 2024, with a projected revenue growth of 305.0% year-on-year to 145.18 billion yuan and a return to profitability with a net profit of 5.95 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.45 billion yuan in 2023 [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a decline in sales due to seasonal factors and model transitions, but the gross margin remains strong at 27.6%, benefiting from the increasing sales proportion of high-end models like the Wanjie M9 [2][3]. - The company is initiating a Hong Kong stock listing to support its global expansion, with funds aimed at enhancing R&D, diversifying marketing channels, and improving operational efficiency [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is expected to reach 145.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 305.0%. The net profit is projected at 5.95 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 2.45 billion yuan in 2023 [1][5]. - For 1Q25, revenue is forecasted to decline by 27.9% year-on-year to 19.15 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to increase by 240.6% year-on-year to 750 million yuan [1]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s vehicle sales in 2024 are projected to grow by 97.0% to 497,000 units, with the Wanjie model sales increasing by 281.3% to 386,000 units [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant decline in sales, with a 40.1% year-on-year drop to 68,000 units, attributed to the transition between old and new models [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on production, R&D, and channel development, with plans to enhance smart manufacturing and expand its global footprint through a Hong Kong listing [3]. - The funds raised from the Hong Kong listing will be used for R&D in new models and technologies, as well as for operational expenses and marketing [3].