·西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。短期内，黄金价格走势受地缘政治冲突的影响。因此贵 金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 ·铜冠金源期货：预计短期金银价格近期将延续调整 ·银河期货：贵金属总体上仍然处于震荡调整之中 ·RJO Futures：风险偏好改善占据主导背景下金价或进一步回落 ·FXStreet：风险偏好改善金价短期仍可能进一步下跌长期仍保持看涨基调 【机构分析】 ·铜冠金源期货表示，当前中东地缘风险缓和，尽管美加贸易关系再度紧张，但中美贸易关系有所缓 和，且美国核心PCE超预期上涨也支持美联储主席鲍威尔表示没有降息紧迫性的观点，降低市场宽松预 期，都对避险资产形成压力，预计短期金银价格近期将延续调整。 ·银河期货表示，近日，市场的焦点逐渐从伊以冲突转回美联储的货币政策路径以及关税谈判期是否可 能延长。货币政策路径方面，大多数美联储官员的发言暂时维持观望态度，但提及秋季可能降息，市场 对于下半年的降息预期有所提升，对下半年降息次数的押注上升至三次。总体 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut in July rising significantly [2][5][11] - As of June 27, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 75.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 24.8% [2][5] - The internal division among Federal Reserve officials is evident, with 8 supporting two rate cuts and 7 opposing, indicating a close split [5][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. dollar, which fell below the 97 mark on June 26, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, with a daily decline of 0.72% [14] - The dollar has depreciated approximately 4% over the past month, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" and market skepticism about the U.S. economy [17] - Global stock indices are showing renewed trading sentiment, with the Nasdaq approaching its yearly high, influenced by expectations of a rate cut [18] Group 3 - Commodity prices are being preemptively adjusted in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which is expected to stimulate the U.S. economy [19] - The article notes that the EIA inventory data has shown a continuous decline over five weeks, indicating stable market demand for oil [19] - The article emphasizes the importance of upcoming non-farm payroll data for gold trading, as the U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, which may influence Federal Reserve decisions [19]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | 2025/6/30 | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | 日期 | 内外盘金 | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | 银15点价 | | | 2025/6/27 | 格展景 | 3294. 33 | 3306. 20 | 36. 69 | 8792. 00 | 763. 80 | 877 ...

6月30日，国际黄金市场延续近期下行趋势，现货黄金价格盘中触及3246.55美元/盎司，创近一个月新 低。截至10时25分，黄金价格有所回升，伦敦金现报3281.257美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货价格报 | 3291.5美元/盎司。 | | --- | 受国际金价拖累，国内品牌金饰价格全线跌破1000元/克心理关口。周大福、周生生、周六福等品牌足 金饰品报价集中在978元/克至990元/克区间，除周六福外，其余品牌日跌幅在0.9%—1.2%之间。 | | 国内现货 国际现货 黄金实物 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 银行 | 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | | 价格(元/克) 日涨跌幅 | | | 周大福 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 老凤祥 | | | 990 | -1.20% | | 周六福 | | | 978 | 0.00% | | 周生生 | | | 984 | -1.20% | | 六届休主 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 我要望 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 老庙 | | | 987 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict, on the global oil supply and demand dynamics, and explores potential unexpected factors that could influence oil prices in the near future. Group 1: Supply Side Analysis - Oil production is concentrated in resource-rich countries, primarily led by OPEC+, with current OPEC spare capacity accounting for approximately 5.5% of global production [5][10] - In the short term, the supply is relatively ample due to a shift from production cuts to increases, while long-term supply remains loose, with a potential increase of about 0.6% if the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolves [5][14] - The cost of extraction plays a crucial role in determining the oil price floor and marginal production capacity, with Middle Eastern countries having the lowest extraction costs [7][15] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - Global oil demand is primarily concentrated in the US, China, and Europe, with growth expected in developing economies due to industrialization and urbanization [17][21] - The revival of the European economy is projected to contribute an additional 0.6% to oil demand, with Germany's infrastructure investments and Ukraine's reconstruction efforts accounting for approximately 0.3% each [27][29] - Long-term demand is expected to decline due to energy transition trends, particularly in China, where the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market is anticipated to significantly reduce oil consumption [42][45] Group 3: Price Outlook - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $60 to $80 per barrel throughout the year, with a potential central price of around $75 per barrel by year-end, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from the mid-year level [54] - Short-term supply-demand gaps remain tight, influenced by geopolitical tensions and other factors, while long-term demand is under pressure from energy transition initiatives [47][54] - Various scenarios regarding the Iran-Israel conflict could lead to significant price fluctuations, with potential spikes above $200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [34][35]

摘要 中国香港及美国稳定币法案后的虚拟资产行业趋势 20260626 美国推出稳定币法案旨在将美元霸权映射到区块链场景，通过美元稳定币渗透 灰色市场，并利用民间发行机构分销短期美债，以延长美元体系生命线。香港 则希望构建数字金融实验场并扮演政策缓冲区角色，同时避免金融制裁威胁， 并通过一国两制政策吸引外资，助力人民币国际化和资产全球流通。因此，美 国侧重建立链上的数字殖民，而香港则致力于建立链上的通商口岸。 SWIFT 体系武器化推动非美元化，发展中国家民众自发使用加密金融， 链上金融需求显著增长。俄罗斯被踢出 SWIFT 体系后，寻求替代方案， 表明地缘政治风险加速了去中心化金融的采用。 比特币价格与全球 M2 货币供应量高度相关，宽松周期下，美国降息压 力可能推动比特币及风险资产上涨。特朗普政府对美联储的施压可能直 接影响加密货币市场。 美国稳定币法案旨在将美元霸权延伸至区块链，香港则希望构建数字金 融实验场，助力人民币国际化。美国侧重数字殖民，香港则致力于建立 链上通商口岸。 稳定币通过优化点对点交易清结算网络降低成本，提高效率，盈利模式 类似银行吸储放贷，投资低风险资产赚取利息。中国手机出口商可利用 ...

周周芝道 - 如何理解近期市场表现 20260629 摘要 近期市场受地缘政治担忧消退、美联储降息预期前置、美国资本税条款 删除及科技股走强等多重因素提振，美元走弱，为非美资产带来资金流 入预期。 下半年美元预计不会持续大幅贬值，因美股科技驱动力仍在，且美国债 券市场表现预计将改善，贸易战对美国政策的掣肘或将缓解。 对下半年黄金价格持谨慎态度，上半年黄金上涨主要受贸易战驱动，若 下半年贸易战影响减弱，黄金上涨动力可能不足，需关注全球衰退趋势 和美联储宽松节奏。 稳定币的兴起与法币锚定担忧和去美元化趋势有关，其投资机会体现在 发行公司、区块链技术支持、交易推广、抵押资产承接以及衍生金融交 易等方面。 稳定币作为类固收产品，其长期价值在于全球支付体系中的潜在作用， 以及在应对未来国际经济和政治秩序重塑过程中可能扮演的角色。 对三季度 A 股市场持谨慎态度，因经济数据可能疲弱，且美元走弱趋势 可能放缓，部分资金可能反抽，对市场构成压力。 中国宏观政策呈现"新节奏"、"新力度"和"新方向"三个特点，政 策调控框架已发生变化，滞后于经济基本面，旨在避免"大水漫灌"和 过度提前刺激。 Q&A 当前全球资本市场呈现出哪些主 ...

金属行业 2025 年中期投资策略系列报告之贵金属篇 20250627 摘要 金价在 501 美元/盎司后震荡，当前降息和地缘政治缓和预期构成买点。 2024 年末美国经济向好预期曾导致金价下跌，2025 年初俄乌冲突缓和 及 4 月关税政策也曾使金价承压，但截至 6 月 27 日仍呈上行趋势。 把握逆全球化、美元/美债不可持续性及美国经济支撑降息预期三大宏观 叙事主线是把握黄金牛市的关键。美国经济软指标向好但硬指标仍显悲 观，衰退预期持续，一季度 GDP 为 2022 年来新低，出口下滑，PMI 指 数持续收缩。 美联储降息周期通常利好黄金，市场普遍预计 2025 年 9 月降息，全年 降息约三次。7 月中旬债务上限谈判若无进展，8 月中下旬可能出现技 术性违约，债务问题将进一步利好黄金。 2025 财年第一季度美国利息支出为第四大支出项目，特朗普政府时期 的大额财政支出推高债务上限，长期债务问题引发美元和美债下行，推 动金价上涨。债务达 40 万亿美元时，金价或达 3,900 美元/盎司。 美联储资产负债表自 2020 年 1 月以来扩张 60%，货币超发导致货币信 用体系下降，增加黄金作为避险资产的需求 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate reflects the interaction between the Chinese economy and the global financial system, with the RMB appreciating due to a combination of factors including economic transformation and the weakening of the USD [1][3] - The RMB to USD exchange rate strengthened significantly, reaching a midpoint of 7.1620 on June 26, 2025, marking a new high since November 2024, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell from 102.09 to 95.92, indicating a complex underlying logic [1][3] - The appreciation of the RMB is occurring against the backdrop of China's high-quality development strategy, with notable achievements in manufacturing upgrades and a significant increase in new energy vehicle exports, which grew over 70% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The weakening of the USD is driven by the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for further rate cuts exceeding 80% as of June 2025 [3] - The acceleration of the global "de-dollarization" process is evident, with BRICS countries increasing the use of local currencies in trade, and central banks globally, including China, significantly increasing gold reserves [3][4] - China's economic fundamentals are robust, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a notable recovery in consumer markets, as evidenced by 274 million domestic tourist trips during the May Day holiday, generating 148.056 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's announcement that China can continue to buy Iranian oil, indicating a complex relationship between the U.S., China, and Iran [3][4] - The U.S. is facing pressures from tariffs and oversupply, leading to a decline in international oil prices, which is critical for the profitability of U.S. shale oil producers [4][6] - The decline in oil prices could significantly impact U.S. fiscal revenue, especially as the country continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, resulting in a potential crisis for oil producers [6] Group 2 - The article highlights the shift in U.S. energy strategy, with a focus on expanding shale oil production and the need for higher oil prices to maintain profitability [4][6] - There is a growing trend of energy cooperation between China and Iran, which includes transactions in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, challenging the dominance of the dollar in oil trade [8] - The article suggests that the U.S. may lose market share in the long run as allies benefit from reduced reliance on American oil, with significant amounts of U.S. oil currently stranded in ports [8]