人民财讯11月13日电，11月13日，中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙学工在2025中国外贸信托财富 论坛上表示，建议2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，以保持政策的连续性、 稳定性，营造稳定的支持性宏观政策环境。更加积极的财政政策加力增效，要加大中央政府支出力度， 可以考虑将预算赤字率提高到4.5%，继续增发特别国债，确保中央政府持续发力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic balance and structural optimization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for sustainable fiscal practices and effective governance [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Direction - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to support major national strategic tasks and ensure basic livelihood [1][2]. - Experts advocate for an increase in fiscal spending, optimization of expenditure schedules, and innovation in policy tools to stimulate total demand and stabilize economic growth expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Investment and Spending Efficiency - The article stresses the need to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and improve the efficiency of fund utilization by optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure [2][3]. - It is recommended to focus fiscal resources on public sectors and areas with high social benefits, such as healthcare, education, and digital economy infrastructure [3][4]. Group 3: Sustainable Fiscal Practices - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as crucial for achieving socialist modernization, necessitating a deeper reform of the fiscal and tax system to enhance sustainability [4][5]. - Experts suggest implementing zero-based budgeting reforms to improve the scientific and precise nature of budget preparation, thereby increasing budget fund efficiency [5].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance will focus on six key areas to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, improving people's livelihoods, preventing risks in key sectors, and enhancing fiscal governance effectiveness [1][2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of budget execution responsibility and aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage while ensuring fund security [1] - Specific measures include implementing consumption stimulus actions, providing fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, and encouraging private investment through local government bonds and special treasury bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights the need to strengthen employment support policies, including public employment services, vocational training, and stabilizing job positions for key groups [1][2] - It aims to enhance international economic cooperation by signing more free trade agreements and supporting enterprises in stabilizing orders and expanding markets [1][2] - The focus on nurturing new growth drivers includes promoting technological innovation, supporting the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, and creating a favorable environment for business development [2] Group 3 - The report outlines measures to improve social welfare, such as providing subsidies for elderly care services and implementing free preschool education [2] - It emphasizes the importance of coordinating major livelihood policies across departments to expand social security coverage and support low-income groups [2] - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a comprehensive debt management policy to address hidden debts and ensure stable fiscal operations [3] Group 4 - The report stresses the need for enhanced fiscal governance, including the implementation of various fiscal and tax reforms to improve resource allocation and budget management [3] - It calls for increased financial supervision and accountability at local and departmental levels to ensure effective use of fiscal funds [3] - The Ministry of Finance aims to align its fiscal policies with the goal of building a modern socialist country, focusing on high-quality fiscal planning and macroeconomic regulation [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's economy is showing steady progress, with overall fiscal operations remaining stable in the first half of 2025 [1] Fiscal Performance - National general public budget revenue reached 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - National general public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.4% [1] Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key areas for future fiscal policy focus, including the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, support for employment and foreign trade stability, and fostering new growth drivers [2][3] Employment and Trade Support - Emphasis on enhancing employment policies, providing public employment services, vocational training, and supporting enterprises in stabilizing orders and expanding markets [2] Development of New Growth Drivers - Focus on strengthening industrial innovation and technology supply, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector, and supporting the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Social Welfare Improvements - Initiatives to enhance services for the elderly and children, including subsidies for elderly care services and the implementation of free preschool education [3] Risk Management - Continued efforts to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including the management of hidden debts and ensuring stable fiscal operations at the grassroots level [4] Governance Enhancement - Strengthening fiscal management and oversight, advancing fiscal reforms, and ensuring that fiscal resources are effectively utilized for development and public welfare [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that since 2025, China's fiscal policy has become more proactive, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, while enhancing coordination with other policies to promote sustained economic recovery [2][3]. Fiscal Policy Execution - The fiscal operation in the first half of 2025 was generally stable, with good budget execution and a continuous recovery in fiscal revenue, particularly in tax income [3]. - The central government allocated 300 billion yuan for long-term special bonds to support consumption, alongside 7.279 billion yuan for service industry development, aimed at stimulating consumption in rural areas [4]. Investment and Consumption - The fiscal policy has been working to boost consumption and expand investment, with the issuance of long-term special bonds starting in April, completing 42.7% of the annual issuance target in the first half, which is 17.7 percentage points faster than the previous year [4]. - A new special debt limit of 4.4 trillion yuan was fully allocated to local governments by April, achieving 49.1% of the annual limit in the first half, which is 11 percentage points faster than the previous year [4]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The Ministry of Finance has effectively utilized tariff adjustments to stabilize foreign trade and investment, implementing temporary import tariff rates lower than the most-favored-nation rates on 935 items since January 1, 2025 [5]. - The expansion of high-standard free trade zones and cooperation with trade partners on tax reductions has been highlighted as a strategy to enhance market confidence [5]. Fiscal Management Pilot - The Ministry of Finance has initiated a pilot program for fiscal management in 12 provinces, focusing on improving resource allocation and budget management, with 11 key tasks set to achieve breakthroughs in two years [7][8]. - A national platform for the sharing of state-owned assets has been established, facilitating over 200 asset adjustments and saving more than 40 million yuan in budget funds [8]. Future Fiscal Policy Directions - The report outlines six key areas for future fiscal policy, including the effective use of proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, improving living standards, risk prevention, and enhancing fiscal governance [11][12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand, enhance consumption, and support key industries, while ensuring effective budget execution and financial safety [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on improving the efficiency of fund usage and ensuring financial security [1][3]. - A special bond of 300 billion yuan will be issued to support the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to boost sales by 1.6 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [4][10]. - The government aims to enhance local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds to encourage private investment and expand public services [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Recovery and Growth - The fiscal policy aims to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, contributing to a sustained economic recovery [3][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the general public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, with tax revenue showing signs of recovery, particularly in key sectors like manufacturing and modern services [7][8]. - The total public budget expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, marking a 3.4% increase, with significant allocations for social security, education, and healthcare [9][10]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and Investment - The government is implementing measures to boost consumer demand, including expanding the scope of subsidies for consumer goods and enhancing social security to increase consumption capacity [10][11]. - The issuance of special bonds and government investments in infrastructure and key industries is expected to drive effective investment and stimulate economic activity [11][12]. - The central government has allocated 295.5 billion yuan for transportation infrastructure projects, aiming to improve logistics efficiency [12][13]. Group 4: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The central government plans to increase funding for scientific research and technological innovation, with a budget of 398.12 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous year [5][15]. - Support for key manufacturing industries and technological upgrades is prioritized to enhance industrial transformation and upgrade production capabilities [13][15]. - The government is also focusing on fostering innovation in small and medium-sized enterprises through various financial incentives and support programs [16][17]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Employment - The government is committed to improving social welfare, with a focus on employment support, education funding, and healthcare services, ensuring that basic needs are met [18][19]. - In the first half of 2025, 667.4 billion yuan was allocated for employment support, contributing to the creation of 6.95 million new jobs [19][20]. - Education funding increased by 5.9% to 2.15 trillion yuan, with specific initiatives aimed at enhancing early childhood and vocational education [20][21]. Group 6: Environmental Protection and Sustainability - The government is actively promoting ecological civilization and environmental protection, with significant funding allocated for pollution control and ecosystem restoration [27][28]. - A total of 340 billion yuan has been designated for air pollution prevention, while 267 billion yuan is allocated for water pollution control [27][28]. - The implementation of carbon neutrality goals is supported through various initiatives, including the promotion of clean energy and sustainable practices [29][30].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has released a report on the execution of China's fiscal policy for the first half of 2025, indicating a commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy approach [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Ministry will strengthen the responsibility chain for budget execution, aiming to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization while ensuring the safety of funds [1] - There will be continued implementation of special actions to boost consumption, with fiscal subsidies provided for personal consumption loans in key sectors [1] - The focus will also be on stimulating service consumption potential in areas such as elderly care and childcare [1] Group 2: Financial Coordination and Investment - The Ministry plans to actively utilize local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to enhance coordination between fiscal and financial policies [1] - More public services will be included in the investment support scope, with an emphasis on encouraging private investment development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Henan provincial government is implementing a series of fiscal measures to support key economic projects and ensure the achievement of annual economic goals, focusing on a proactive fiscal policy and debt risk management [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Policy Effectiveness - The government is accelerating the implementation of central policies and enhancing project funding, with a focus on the "Two New" and "Two Heavy" projects, and has allocated 5.756 billion yuan for consumer incentives [4]. - There is an emphasis on early disbursement of funds to local governments and departments to maximize the effectiveness of financial resources [4]. Group 2: Revenue Enhancement - The government is promoting a series of fiscal and tax policies to support enterprise development and is actively engaging in activities to foster tax revenue [5]. - Efforts are being made to optimize the management of state-owned assets to convert dormant assets into revenue-generating resources [5]. Group 3: Priority on "Three Guarantees" - Increased financial transfers to local governments, particularly in economically challenged areas, are being prioritized to ensure timely and sufficient funding for education, healthcare, and other critical sectors [6]. - The implementation of zero-based budgeting reforms aims to ensure adequate financial resources for the "Three Guarantees" in the upcoming budget [6]. Group 4: Debt Risk Management - Plans are in place to issue 7.62 billion yuan in replacement bonds and 17.06 billion yuan in special bonds to address government debt and overdue payments to enterprises [7]. - The government is enhancing the direct payment mechanism for debt bonds to ensure efficient use of funds and is actively seeking greater financial and policy support from the national level [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing proactive fiscal policies to support China's economic development and modernization efforts, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance aims to utilize fiscal policy as a primary tool for macroeconomic regulation, focusing on budget, taxation, government bonds, and transfer payments to stabilize economic cycles and optimize structure [3][4]. - The government will avoid excessive stimulus and instead target key areas to ensure stable economic growth and structural reform [3][4]. Economic Performance - From 2021 to 2024, China's average economic growth rate is projected to be 5.5%, with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually [4]. - Public budget expenditures during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, supporting various national strategies for high-quality development [4]. Challenges and Responses - The article highlights the complex domestic and international challenges facing fiscal policy, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [6][7]. - It stresses the need for effective fiscal management to enhance policy effectiveness and adapt to changing circumstances [7]. Key Focus Areas - The government will prioritize expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and improving public welfare [11][12]. - Emphasis will be placed on rural revitalization, urban development, and regional coordination to enhance modernization efforts [12]. Fiscal Management and Reform - The article advocates for deepening fiscal reforms and enhancing regulatory oversight to improve fiscal governance [13]. - It calls for measures to mitigate local government debt risks and ensure sustainable fiscal development [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the expectation of maintaining policy continuity and stability in the second half of the year, with a focus on enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve the "four stabilizations" [1] Group 1: Policy Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session concluded with a public announcement that reflects strong policy continuity [1] - It is anticipated that more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies will be implemented in the fourth quarter [1] - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is expected to be strengthened to address potential impacts from uncertainties related to Trump and escalating overseas geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - There is an emphasis on the importance of gold and bonds, with a particular focus on exploring convertible bonds [1] - The article suggests that the reduction in uncertainties from the fifth round of China-U.S. negotiations may create a more favorable investment environment [1]