市场消息：英国统计局局长在经济数据危机中宣布辞职。 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with differing opinions on potential rate cuts within the year, which could enhance gold's value preservation demand [2] - Strong U.S. employment data may raise inflation concerns, supporting gold prices; however, March core PCE data showed a slowdown in inflation, leading to a more cautious monetary policy from the Fed [2] - Economic data from major economies like China will also impact physical demand for gold and global capital flows [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, driving funds into gold and supporting its price [3] - Fluctuations in global financial markets and unpredictable trade policies have led investors to seek refuge in gold, pushing prices higher [3] - The interplay of Fed monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment collectively influences gold prices, with a potential short-term target of $3,500 per ounce if dovish Fed statements and worsening geopolitical situations persist [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The spot gold market initially broke through the key resistance level of $3,399, reaching an intraday peak of $3,414.79, but subsequently reversed direction [4] - After a brief consolidation, gold prices fell to the target level of $3,322, achieving a notable profit margin of $42 [4] - Current technical indicators suggest a dominant bearish trend, with short-term moving averages suppressing long-term averages, indicating a high likelihood of continued downward movement [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market showed expected behavior, rebounding to $33.750 before retreating to a low of $32.295, where signs of stabilization emerged [6] - The short-term chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with short-term moving averages consistently crossing below long-term averages [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes waiting for silver prices to rebound to the resistance level of $32.660 for a short position, with a stop-loss set at $32.960 and a profit target at $32.240 [6]

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20250509申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 784.54 | 790.42 | 8154.00 | 8221.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 794.80 | 800.38 | 8235.00 | 8306.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -10.26 | -9.96 | -81.00 | -85.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -1.29% | -1.24% | -0.98% | -1.02% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 127407 | 51018 | 232016 | 108449 | | | | 成交量 | 197963 | 17040 | 274975 | 16641 | | | | 现货升贴水 | 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut decisions will depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations and actual economic data, particularly employment data [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Recent soft data in the U.S. has shown overall weakness, while hard data remains robust [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see approach, not rushing to cut rates, and plans to act once the situation becomes clearer [1] - Future interest rate cut decisions will primarily depend on the trends in hard data, especially employment figures [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - If employment data weakens significantly before the June meeting, and inflation pressure remains manageable in April and May, there is a probability of a rate cut in June [1] - Conversely, if conditions do not align, the decision for a rate cut may be postponed until July or later [1] Group 3: Focus Areas - Continued attention will be on changes in U.S. tariff policies and hard data, including employment figures, to assess the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [1]

周四（5月8日）重点关注财经事件和经济数据 ②14:00 德国3月季调后工业产出月率、3月季调后贸易帐，英国4月Halifax季调后房价指数月率； ③15:00 商务部召开5月第1次例行新闻发布会； ④19:02 英国央行公布利率决议及货币政策报告； ⑤20:30 美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数； ⑥22:00 美国3月批发销售月率； ⑦22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA天然气库存； ⑧23:00 美国4月纽约联储1年通胀预期。 ①10:00 国新办举行新闻发布会； ...

及时发现热异常点，提高禁烧工作效能，保障空气质量。 ▎合作需求 ▎合作方式 联合运营、测试验证、采购应用 ▎预算金额 ✦+ 合肥市场景公司 合肥市场景应用创新促进中心有限公司(简称合肥市场景公司)，是由科大硅谷服务平台公司、合肥市滨投公司、合肥市高新控股集团、合肥兴泰金融控股 集团、合肥市科创集团以及长城战略共同出资设立，接受合肥市发改委指导，是统筹全市场景创新工作和联动全市场景资源的平台公司，是全国首个以场 景应用创新命名的企业法人机构，是"政府指导、国资参股、市场运作"的创新载体，是促进新技术新产品新场景大规模应用示范、赋能科技创新企业发 展、培育未来产业的创新平台。 场景机会 ▎巢湖市卫星遥感监测秸秆焚烧火点 ▎安徽瞬芯科技有限公司 50万元 ▎报名方式 国家发改委价格成本和认证中心与安徽瞬芯科技签署了《低空经济物联网公共数据价格形成机制研究》课题合作围绕低空经济领域数据定价的核心问题开 展研究，旨在建立符合低空经济物联网领域特点的公共数据价格形成机制，并推动形成低空经济物联网公共数据价格评估行业标准与技术规范。 申报单位于5月15日18:00前提交PPT资料(内容包括但不限于单位基本情况、核心技术产品 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：不确定性可能体现在疲弱的经济数据上。 ...

分析师评美联储利率决议：美联储声明的开头强调经济和劳动力市场仍然稳固，这与软数据和硬数据之 间的争论有关。近几个月来，失业率稳定在较低水平，劳动力市场状况依然稳固。通胀仍在一定程度上 处于高位。 ...

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"美联储利率会议与中美会谈"，"巴印冲突与欧佩克+加速增产"，"清迈倡议与文明之鹰2025"，"财新PMI与三巨头发布会"四个方 面解读了基本面的一些信息，并结合美联储，中美，瑞士，巴基斯坦，印度，欧佩克，金银油，10+3，中埃，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布局 思路。 今天的基本面发生了很多事，包括巴印冲突，美国与胡塞武装达成停火协议，中美计划在5月9日-12日瑞士举行会谈，欧佩克+计划加速增产，以及三巨头 的重磅发布会，这些内容我已经在今夜的直播课上为大家作了跟踪与解读。 这里重点说一下， 美联储今夜明晨的利率决议。 | 预测利率 | 2025.05.8 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.8% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 1.1% | 25.0% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 3.2% | 35.6% | 54.8% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 96.8% | 63.3% | 19 ...