| 欧佩克公布月度 | 扮演的角色发表 | 报告。 | 与一场问答。 | 话。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油市场报告 | 讲话。 | · 10:00:00 | · 07:00:00 | · 2025-04-18 | | (月报具体公布 | ·07:40:00 | 国新办就国民经 | 2025年FOMC票 | 美股休市一日。 | | 时间待定,一般 | 2027年FOMC票 | 济运行情况举行 | 委、堪萨斯联储 | · 2025-04-18 | | 于北京时间18- | 委、亚特兰大联 | 新闻发布会。 | 主席施密德和达 | 旗下贵金属、美 | | 21点左右公 | 储主席博斯蒂克 | | 拉斯联储主席洛 | 国原油、外汇和 | | 布)。 | 就货币政策发表 | | 根就美国经济和 | 股指期货合约全 | | 国家能源局每月 | 讲话。 | | 银行业进行炉边 | 天交易暂停。 | | 15日左右公布全 | ·09:20:00 | | 谈话。 | · 2025-04-18 | | 社会用电量数 | 今日有1000亿 | | 国内成品油将开 | 港股休市一日, ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a weak trend due to recent pullbacks and selling pressure, compounded by a strengthening US dollar index which has reduced bullish factors for gold [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has recently rebounded, indicating a potential strong upward trend, which may exert pressure on gold prices [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield has shown a strong bullish trend supported by the 200-day moving average, which could also negatively impact gold prices in the short term [3][4]. - Economic data releases, including the FHFA house price index and consumer confidence index, are expected to be favorable for gold prices, although uncertainty remains due to mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have encountered resistance in the $3050-$3060 range and are currently trading below the 5-day moving average, indicating a strengthening bearish sentiment [4]. - There is a potential for a rebound as gold tests the 10-day moving average support, but further declines are expected until prices stabilize above the 5-day moving average [4].

Domestic Market Analysis - The monetary policy includes a 1.901 billion CNY operation of the Standing Lending Facility in February, with an end balance of 1.3 billion CNY[2] - The future scale of re-loans for technological innovation and transformation is set to expand to between 800 billion and 1 trillion CNY[2] - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and a deficit ratio of 4%[2] - In February, the Caixin Services PMI was at 51.4, while the Manufacturing PMI was at 50.8[2] - Exports grew by 3.4% in January-February, while imports fell by 7.3%[2] International Market Analysis - The U.S. economy showed a slight increase in overall activity since mid-January, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book[3] - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating a potential end to the easing cycle[3] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[3] - The Atlanta Fed revised down the U.S. Q1 GDP forecast, expecting a contraction of over 2.8%[3] Strategic Recommendations - A global strategy to buy U.S. dollars (+DXY) and U.S. Treasury bonds (-TU) is recommended[4] - Domestically, a strategic approach to steepen the yield curve (+2×TS2506-1×T2506) is advised[4] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and risks associated with U.S. and European debt are highlighted[5] - The risk of yen appreciation is also noted[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions and forecasts, emphasizing the importance of understanding various economic indicators and their implications for investment strategies [3][4]. Domestic Fundamentals - The report highlights the pressure on enterprises that may be transmitted to the asset side, indicating a potential decline in industrial profits [3]. - It notes the dual mission of consumption, suggesting that consumer spending is crucial for economic recovery [3]. - The article analyzes the unexpected rise in the PMI data, attributing it to underlying economic resilience [3]. Financial Analysis - The report discusses the monetary policy execution report for Q3 2024, indicating a shift towards a "low-price" strategy [3]. - It provides insights into how financial indicators should be tracked following the implementation of this low-price strategy [3]. - The analysis of household debt reveals the ongoing deleveraging process and its implications for the economy [3]. Overseas Insights - The article examines the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, questioning whether it is driven by inflation narratives or deficit concerns [4]. - It evaluates the impact of Trump's new policies on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4]. - The report addresses the discrepancies in the U.S. non-farm payroll data and the stable unemployment rate, suggesting a complex labor market situation [4]. Policy Tracking - The report discusses fiscal support for the real estate sector, indicating hidden incremental policies that may affect market dynamics [4]. - It highlights the expansion of supervisory laws and their potential implications for various sectors [4]. - The article reviews the ongoing reforms and opening-up policies, suggesting a commitment to economic liberalization [4]. Annual and Semi-Annual Reports - The mid-year strategy report for 2024 emphasizes pricing strategies as a key determinant for market performance [3]. - The annual outlook for 2024 discusses the potential for growth and the need for strategic adjustments in investment approaches [3]. - The mid-year strategy report for 2023 focuses on identifying unseen growth opportunities in the current economic landscape [3].

Group 1 - The Spring Festival this year showed characteristics of a significant return home, with passenger turnover volume in January 2025 increasing by 17.6% year-on-year [1][8] - The congestion index in 39 cities recorded 1.80 as of February 28, indicating a 102.0% increase compared to the average of the last two weeks before the festival [9] - The subway passenger volume in the last week of February was 97.1% of the average from the two weeks prior to the festival [9] Group 2 - The industrial sector's operating rates showed mixed results year-on-year, with significant increases in steel and automotive sectors [2][10] - As of February 27-28, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][10] - The operating rate for styrene increased by 18.1 percentage points year-on-year, while PVC and PTA saw declines of 2.2 and 3.9 percentage points respectively [2][11] Group 3 - Construction site resumption rates and labor utilization rates remain below last year's levels, but funding availability has improved year-on-year [3][12] - As of February 27, the resumption rate for 13,532 construction sites was 64.6%, and the labor utilization rate was 61.7% [3][12] - The cement dispatch rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating a recovery in physical workload [3][12] Group 4 - The new visa-free policy has led to a significant increase in international flight operations, with a 24.6% year-on-year increase in average daily international flights in February [4][14] - Inbound tourism generated substantial consumption, with 13.19 million inbound tourists in 2024, a 60.8% increase from 2023, and total consumption reaching $94.2 billion, up 77.8% [4][14] Group 5 - The film box office and audience numbers have significantly rebounded, with a 63.3% increase in average daily box office revenue and a 57.9% increase in average daily audience numbers in January-February [5][15] - The box office for the Spring Festival reached a record high of 9.507 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-on-year [5][15] Group 6 - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with a 35.6% year-on-year increase in average daily transaction area in 30 major cities in February [6][16] - The average daily transaction area reached 37.1 million square meters in the last week of February, close to the average of November last year [6][16] Group 7 - Automotive sales showed a mixed performance, with a 4% year-on-year decline in retail sales as of February 23, but a significant 77% increase in new energy vehicle sales [7][17] - The wholesale volume of passenger vehicles increased by 60% year-on-year in February [7][17] Group 8 - Home appliance sales maintained relatively high growth rates, with online sales of air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators showing significant year-on-year increases [8][18] - The offline sales of these appliances also demonstrated strong growth, indicating sustained demand supported by favorable policies [8][18] Group 9 - Container throughput continued to rise, with a 19.8% year-on-year increase in February, reflecting stable export conditions [9][19] - The overall cargo throughput at domestic ports also showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [9][19] Group 10 - The industrial price index has shown fluctuations but remains near the high point since October, with a 1.9% increase from the end of January [10][20] - The prices of energy and building materials have slightly decreased, while prices for non-ferrous metals and chemicals have increased [10][20]