1月12日，上周公布的非农数据呈现出"就业增长放缓，但整体经济韧性犹存"的特征。这一局面进一步 巩固了市场对美联储将在未来启动降息的预期，为黄金价格提供了坚实的中期支撑。进入本周，多位美 联储官员将密集发表讲话，他们的立场和表态对市场预期的后续走向至关重要。当然，地缘政治风险的 演变仍是焦点，以下几大事件将成为直接影响黄金短期涨跌的关键推手。 周一（1月12日）亚市早盘，黄金价格大幅跳空高开，其直接导火索在于近期骤然升级的美伊紧张关 系，这一地缘政治冲击波正席卷全球市场。一方面，伊朗国内因经济危机爆发了大规模抗议活动，社会 局势陷入动荡；另一方面，美国总统特朗普已公开威胁，可能采取包括军事手段在内的多种方式进行干 预，以支持伊朗国内的抗议者。 与此同时，美国国内政治与央行的独立性也面临新的挑战。美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开 刑事调查。由于此项调查由特朗普任命的检察官主导，市场普遍将其解读为特朗普政府因利率政策分歧 而对美联储施加的政治压力。目前，白宫已将相关问题转交司法部处理。特朗普本人更是毫不掩饰其意 图，公开计划在鲍威尔任期于2026年5月结束后将其免职。 一波未平，一波又起。委内瑞拉局势和格陵 ...

1月12日，2026年开年首个交易周，黄金市场在多重利好因素交织下走出强势上行行情，周线以饱和大 阳线收官，不仅印证了多头的主导地位，更为本周行情延续涨势筑牢基础。地缘政治风险的持续发酵与 美联储降息预期的深化形成共振，推动金价突破关键阻力，市场做多情绪持续升温。回顾上周市场表 现，避险情绪成为行情启动的核心推手。周初黄金开盘即展现强势，在避险资金的推动下高开于4350.5 点位，随后行情经历短暂的健康回踩，最低触及4345点位后迅速企稳。这一回踩动作既消化了部分短期 获利盘，也为后续的拉升行情积蓄了动能，彰显出市场下方支撑的强劲。此后，黄金进入持续的强势震 荡拉升阶段，多头力量逐步释放，金价沿着上行轨迹稳步攀升，市场对利好因素的反应不断强化。 1月12日，2026年开年首个交易周，黄金市场在多重利好因素交织下走出强势上行行情，周线以饱和大 阳线收官，不仅印证了多头的主导地位，更为本周行情延续涨势筑牢基础。地缘政治风险的持续发酵与 美联储降息预期的深化形成共振，推动金价突破关键阻力，市场做多情绪持续升温。回顾上周市场表 现，避险情绪成为行情启动的核心推手。周初黄金开盘即展现强势，在避险资金的推动下高开于435 ...

截至上周五（1月9日），伦敦现货黄金报收4509.02美元/盎司，自1月2日以来累计上涨176.51美元/盎 司，涨幅4.07%。上周伦敦现货黄金价格震荡走强，金价于周五重回4500关口，最高达4517.23美元/盎 司。 回顾上周以来海外主要市场动态：美国12月制造业PMI超预期回落，强化市场对美联储降息预期；美国 非农就业数据再度下修，ADP数据疲软，但失业率也有所回落，尚为对降息预期有一致性的影响；地缘 冲突持续，美委冲突、白宫对格陵兰岛的表态强硬、伊朗爆发大规模抗议等，激发市场避险情绪；芝商 所第三次上调履约保证金，彭博商品指数开始调参、贵金属权重下降，对黄金带来一定短期利空。总体 来看，在地缘冲突与避险情绪的提振下，金价震荡走强，重回4500关口，或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基 金ETF（518800）。关注本周美国12月CPI、11月PPI等。 周点评：中长期看黄金具备支撑 在地缘冲突与避险情绪的提振下，上周伦敦现货黄金价格震荡走强，重回4500美元/盎司关口。展望后 市，美委、伊朗等地缘扰动、贵金属板块的火热交易情绪或构成利好，交易所上调保证金、商品指数调 整等因素或构成短期利空加大波动、但不改长期 ...

黄金最新行情趋势分析： 1月12日，黄金消息面解析：上周五（1月9日）美国劳工部公布了2025年12月非农就业报告。数据显 示，当月新增就业岗位5万个，低于华尔街经济学家普遍预期的7.3万个，也弱于11月修正后的5.6万个。 这标志着美国劳动力市场在2025年末进一步放缓，全年招聘需求明显减弱。不过，失业率意外降至 4.4%，优于预期的4.5%，为市场带来一定支撑。数据公布后，金融市场反应温和但方向分化。黄金市 场并不需要利率下降才能继续走高，但在疲弱的劳动力市场数据公布后，市场对美联储转向鸽派的预期 正在为黄金上涨增加动能。在美国劳工统计局公布12月就业增长弱于预期后，金价开始测试4500美元的 初步阻力位。周五（1月9日）美市尾盘，现货黄金收报4509.03美元/盎司，上涨31.86美元/盎司，涨幅 0.71%，本周上涨176.83美元或4.08%。尽管劳动力市场有所放缓，但经济学家指出，其韧性仍足以支撑 经济活动。这种组合使美联储相信劳动力市场正在按计划降温。对投资者而言，这进一步强化了2026年 初降息的理由。尽管本月晚些时候并没有紧迫的降息需求，但分析人士认为，利率下行路径将继续为贵 金属提供中期支 ...

1月12日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金强势反弹收涨，基本收复前周跌幅，多头再度转强，走势也持稳5- 10周均线上方，布林带向上延伸，看涨前景良好，后市仍将维持看涨新高观点，等待触及牛市看涨目标 位。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开于4346.46美元/盎司，先行录得当周低点4344.06美元，且并未收复缺口， 之后强势拉升至4400关口上方，并连续震荡运行在此之上，最终在周五再度有所走强，触及当周高点 4516.88美元，最终收于4509.95美元，周振幅172.82美元，相对于前周收盘价4328.35美元，收涨181.6美 元，涨幅4.18%。 影响上，受到周末委内瑞拉局势风险，金价高开高走，虽然有阻力压制和芝商所第三次上调贵金属期货 保证金，以及市场对于本周非农数据预期利空，加上彭博商品指数年度调整将带来的抛售等而反弹受 限； 但也由于地缘政治紧张局势的持续，美联储米兰呼吁今年降息超100基点，弱于预期的"小非农"提振美 联储降息预期，此外，亚洲大国央行在12月份连续第14个月增持黄金。再加上非农数据低于预期及前值 等，而在调整之后再度走强，最终持稳收涨。 展望本周周一（1月12日）：国际黄金高开于4516.02 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continued to be strong during intraday trading. The prices of London silver and the main contract of Shanghai silver reached record highs. Driven by the shortage of physical inventory, the silver market continued to rise. The haze gradually dissipated, the US consumer confidence rebounded steadily, and the strong resilience of the employment market weakened the interest - rate cut expectation slightly. However, the market generally expected a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut within the year. In the future, due to the recent geopolitical turmoil, the safe - haven demand for precious metals increased, and the price center was expected to remain high. The shortage of physical silver inventory was difficult to ease quickly, significantly amplifying price elasticity. In the short term, it was necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk driven by concentrated long - position liquidation. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion plan strengthened the narrative of loose liquidity. Against the background of loose liquidity and stable interest - rate cut expectations, the medium - term bullish logic for precious metals had not changed significantly. In the medium and long term, the strategy of bargain - hunting should be adopted, while paying attention to short - term callback risks. Key attention should be paid to this week's US CPI inflation indicator [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai gold futures contract was 1026.280 yuan/gram, up 19.8 yuan; the main Shanghai silver futures contract was 20945 yuan/kilogram, up 2214.00 yuan. - The main contract's open interest for Shanghai gold was 116,448.00 lots, down 2838.00 lots; for Shanghai silver, it was 1,474.00 lots, up 6.00 lots. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai gold contract was 238,101.00 lots, up 76913.00 lots; for Shanghai silver, it was 1,207,190.00 lots, down 65969.00 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai gold was 97653 kilograms, unchanged; for Shanghai silver, it was 649,643 kilograms, up 29381 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1023.71 yuan/gram, up 20.22 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,432.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2081.00 yuan. - The basis of the main Shanghai gold futures contract was - 2.57 yuan/gram, up 0.42 yuan; for Shanghai silver, it was - 513.00 yuan/kilogram, down 133.00 yuan. - The holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF were 1067.13 tons, up 2.00 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,118.16 tons, down 235.44 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The non - commercial net long position of gold in the CFTC was 227632.00 contracts, down 3541.00 contracts; for silver, it was 30,063.00 contracts, down 5821.00 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. - The US dollar index was 0.00, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 0.00, down 0.02 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 14.49, down 0.96; the CBOE gold volatility index was 0.00, down 0.64. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.55, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 57.51, down 1.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In November 2025, global central banks net - purchased 45 tons of gold, a slight decline from the previous month but still at a high level. From the beginning of 2025 to the end of November, the cumulative net gold purchases reported by global central banks reached 297 tons. - On January 9, 2026, the US Supreme Court did not make a ruling on the tariffs imposed by President Trump. January 14 would be the next day for it to announce a decision. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that if the Supreme Court overturned the global tariffs, the government was ready to use other powers to quickly re - impose them. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in January was 54, reaching a four - month high, with the expected value rising to 53.5. Consumers' inflation expectation for the next year was 4.2%, the same as the previous month. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 4.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95.6%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 27.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 71.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 1.1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On January 13 at 21:30, the US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year (%) - On January 13 at 21:30, the US December PPI year - on - year (%) - On January 13 at 21:30, the US core retail sales month - on - month (%) - On January 15 at 01:00, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate - On January 15 at 20:30, the European Central Bank to release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [2]

铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 822.50 | +8.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 654,834 | +14950↑ | | 期货市场 | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 20.5 | -1.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25792 | -5534↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,600.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 109.1 | +0.64↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 881 | +6↑ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 877 | +5↑ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 776 | +2↑ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 55 | -3↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 10 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - December PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating expectations for policy support in the coming year, particularly in the construction sector[2] - December CPI and PPI were 0.8% and -1.9% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - The first batch of special government bonds for 2026, amounting to 62.5 billion yuan, was issued earlier than in 2025, supporting consumer policies[2] Financial Market Performance - From December 29, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the equity market saw a significant increase, with daily trading volume averaging 25,806 billion yuan, up 6,154 billion yuan from the previous period[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.79%[2] Fixed Income Market - Bond yields rose overall during the same period, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 5.1 basis points[2] - The central bank's net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan contributed to a stable and loose funding environment[2] International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%[2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.12%, and oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected fundamentals, slower-than-anticipated reserve requirement ratio cuts, and renewed inflation pressures in the U.S.[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shifts in the Federal Reserve's stance and market expectations for interest rate changes in 2026, influenced by new appointments and the economic environment [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Changes - Four Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will leave in the new year, with their replacements being more balanced in terms of hawkish and dovish views [3]. - The upcoming leadership change, particularly the potential appointment of a more dovish successor to Chairman Powell, could alter market expectations for interest rate cuts [4][6]. - The FOMC is expected to consider economic data over ideological leanings, which may lead to a more dovish or neutral stance in 2026 [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Nasdaq 100 index has shown strong performance at the beginning of the year, with a cumulative increase of over 2% due to improved market confidence and reduced attractiveness of alternative assets [7]. - The decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from around 4.2% to the 4.0% range has contributed to the capital flow towards high-risk assets like the Nasdaq index [7]. - Seasonal effects, such as the "January effect," are driving strong demand for Nasdaq components as institutional portfolios are being rebalanced for the new year [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Nasdaq index is currently trading within a defined range, with resistance at approximately 26,054 points and support at around 24,112 points [8][10]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buying momentum is beginning to dominate, which could lead to bullish pressure on the Nasdaq index if the trend continues [9]. - The MACD histogram remains around the neutral zero line, suggesting that short-term price movements may remain volatile unless significant changes occur [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is also in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both gold and silver futures [7][35] 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. Last week, gold oscillated upwards under multiple positive factors. Geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut were the core driving forces, and continuous gold purchases by global central banks provided long - term support. However, attention should be paid to the possible delay of the interest rate cut rhythm due to US inflation data and the risk of the extinction of the safe - haven premium caused by the easing of the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 980 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 950 - 970 yuan/gram. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations [10] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 1011 - 1016 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 1000 - 1005 yuan/gram. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations at high levels [11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents the trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [20][23][26] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Silver futures are in a strong upward trend and currently at the end. Last week, silver closed higher in a volatile "roller - coaster" market. It was pushed up by geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations at the beginning of the week, then sharply corrected due to the significant reduction of the silver weight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, and finally stabilized and rebounded. The market is characterized by high volatility due to the intense game between long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the impact of US CPI data on the interest rate cut path and the liquidity recovery after the index rebalancing. It is recommended to wait and see [35] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The silver contract 2604 was operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and the lower support level at 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations [38] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The silver contract 2604 is operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 18,200 - 18,700 yuan and the lower support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations at high levels [39] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows the trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [46][49][51]