市场快讯 -- 铜价脱离震荡区间上涨 图1:沪铜主连日线图 图2:美元指数日线图 据来源:文华财经 > 沪铜价格在6月26日夜盘及27日突破三个月形成的77400- 79500一线的震荡区间,大幅上涨,至截稿已经冲破80000 整数关口,保持强势上涨态势。 > 逻辑: 风险提示:LME库存回升,中国需求继续走弱 研究员： 俞佳松 卫立 从业资格 F0276812 期货 交易咨询: Z0018108 联赛电话18610240369 | 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 免费声念: 本报 作中的信息少来源于公开资料。我公司对这些焦虑的意剧情发起完整视不作任何保证。不仅证据作信息已改革命变变。但不像记分师和出的任何经过不会发生任何变变。本任何情况下，操作中的信息或诉液达的意见并不够的 牌娱乐和买卖的出创或调价。在任何情况正下。我公可不能放弃中的任何内容对任何投资所败出任何形式的担保，法资者队比较谈，没资风险和我承担。我公可可能发出与本和钻雷观忍不一致的其检仪传。本报告反映分析师不人的重要与策论。 代表我公司的立场。未经我公司问意,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有悖原意的 ...

原油周度报告 --地缘冲突缓和 风险溢价快速回落 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-06-27 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘R要T 01 | （1）以伊达成停火协议。 | | --- | | 市场焦点 （2）俄罗斯表态愿意支持进一步增产。 | | （3）美国总统特朗普表示，下周美方将与伊朗会谈。 | 重点数据 （1）美国至6月20日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -46.4万桶，前值-99.5万桶。 （2）美国至6月20日当周EIA原油库存 -583.6万桶，预期-79.7万桶，前值-1147.3万桶。 （3）美国至6月20日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 23.7万桶，前值23万桶。 主要观点 本周以伊双方达成停火协议，原油地缘风险溢价快速回落，本轮冲突持续时间不长且未造成原油供应端出现实质 性的损失，油价基本上回到冲突前的位置。展望后市，随着地缘冲突缓和，市场关注的焦点转移至原油基本面，当前 供应端存在继续增加的预期，但是实际增产的规模低于增产计划，继续扩大增产的预期对油价的压制或弱 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-6-27 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3060 | 3070 | -10 | 82 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3180 | -20 | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3170 | 3160 | 10 | 192 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2978 | 2978 | 0 | 82 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2973 | 2976 | -3 | 87 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2978 | 2978 | O | 82 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3180 | 3180 | 0 | 79 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3100 | 0 | -1 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3170 ...

周五A股市场出现了分化态势。 其中，前期领航的银行股出现盘中冲高受阻后回落的态势，上证综指、上证50指数等股指也有所回落。 但，算力股、有色金属股大力扬升，深证成指、创业板指反复逞强。看来，当前A股较为活跃的动量资 金正在积极调仓，从而带来结构性的新机会。 全球流动性宽松预期渐趋强烈 调仓中催生新结构性机会 由此可见，短线A股市场所处的环境较前期有了一定程度的转变，一方面是全球流动性开始宽松，这对 全球商品价格、权益资产均会带来积极的推动力，就如同前文提及的国际铜价回升、A股资源股走高。 另一方面则是美联储降息预期升温，对整个科技主线也有着较为积极的推动力，这可能也是美股纳斯达 克指数创新高，A股算力股在近期持续复苏、回升的推力。主要是因为美元降息会使得科技创新的资金 成本降低，进而驱动科技创新的进度。历史也多次证实且未来还会证实，低美元利率对创新药等科创产 业方向有着积极的推动力。所以，随着近期美元降息预期的升温，创新药、算力等科技创新领域会再度 成为各路资金竞相加仓的方向。 理解这一点，就可以理解近期A股动量资金开始调仓的逻辑，因为在周四，热门的券商股冲高受阻，在 周五，去年以来一直是强势主线的银行股冲高 ...

Group 1 - The MSCI ACWI index reached its highest value since February 18, closing at 1081 on June 26, reflecting a 20% increase since the recent low on April 8 due to concerns over U.S. tariffs [1] - Investor sentiment improved as U.S.-China negotiations progressed, with U.S. Commerce Secretary indicating potential cancellation of countermeasures if China resumes rare earth exports [3] - A survey by Bank of America showed a significant decrease in the percentage of global institutional investors expecting a "hard landing" for the economy, dropping from 49% in April to 13% in June [3] Group 2 - The current stock market highs are supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and the high growth prospects of AI-related companies [3] - Major U.S. tech companies have seen substantial market capitalization increases, with Microsoft gaining $610 billion, NVIDIA $350 billion, and Broadcom $170 billion since February 18 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 companies is expected to grow by 9% in 2025, indicating resilience despite an uncertain economic environment [5] Group 3 - Global equity funds continue to see net inflows, with nearly $300 billion accumulated by early 2025, maintaining a similar pace to the record $600 billion in 2024 [4] - There are concerns about potential temporary boosts in the U.S. economy due to pre-tariff purchasing, which may lead to a false sense of prosperity [6] - Some institutional investors missed the recent market recovery, facing anxiety over late buying, which could weaken the upward momentum once the "buying the dip" phase ends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market is experiencing a downward trend in gold prices after a brief increase, with specific brands showing varying price changes [1][4]. Price Movements - Lao Feng Xiang gold price decreased by 4 yuan per gram, now at 1002 yuan per gram, making it the highest-priced brand [1][3]. - Shanghai China Gold remains unchanged at 981 yuan per gram, the lowest price among the brands [1][3]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest brand is now 21 yuan per gram, slightly narrowed [1]. Brand Price Summary - Lao Miao gold price: 996 yuan per gram, down by 4 yuan [1][3]. - Liufu gold price: 998 yuan per gram, unchanged [1][3]. - Chow Tai Fook gold price: 998 yuan per gram, unchanged [1][3]. - Zhou Liufu gold price: 978 yuan per gram, unchanged [1][3]. - Gold recovery prices have also seen a slight decrease of 4.4 yuan per gram [4]. International Market Context - The spot gold price showed a decline, currently at 3297.75 USD per ounce, down by 0.90% [7]. - The drop in gold prices is attributed to positive U.S. economic data, which has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July [7]. - Recent U.S. initial jobless claims were reported at 236,000, lower than the expected 243,000, and durable goods orders increased by 16.4%, the largest rise since July 2014 [7].

最近几个交易日，日本股市持续上行。6月27日，日本股市高开高走，日经225指数升破40000点，为1月27日以来首次。 消息面上，受美股上涨带动以及美联储降息预期升温影响，亚洲股市普遍走高。美国经济数据强化了市场对美联储今年 至少降息两次的预期。旧金山联储主席Mary Daly在采访中承认，她看到越来越多证据表明关税可能不会导致大幅或持 续的通胀飙升，这使她对"秋季"降息持开放态度。不过波士顿联储主席Susan Collins表示，她预计今年至少降息一次， 但暗示7月降息为时过早。 三菱住友DS资管的策略师Masahiro Ichikawa表示，日本股市今日有望延续涨势，主要由半导体相关板块推动。人工智能 需求预期、中东局势缓和、美联储降息预期以及美中冲突风险缓解等因素为市场提供支撑。 其次，白宫称7月9日谈判截止期"不重要"、可能推迟。根据美国总统特朗普此前宣布的对等关税，日本汽车企业出口美 国的产品将被征收25%的关税，而其他行业则面临着24%的关税。这些关税目前仍处于特朗普给出的"暂缓期"，直至7 月9日才生效。 瑞穗证券公司高级技术分析师三浦丰表示："日本与美国贸易方面出现了积极进展的迹象，一些投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing explosive growth in trading volume, driven by a weakening dollar and strong investor sentiment, with a target of reaching the key resistance level of 1.20 USD. Group 1: Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - On June 26, the euro's trading volume in the forex options market exceeded 56 billion USD, significantly higher than the second-ranked Japanese yen at 13 billion USD and the third-ranked Canadian dollar [1][7]. - Investors are focusing on bullish euro options, with the volume of contracts betting on the euro surpassing 1.20 USD increasing over the past week, indicating new funds are flowing into bullish euro strategies [1][7]. - The bullish sentiment for the euro has reached its highest level since early 2024, with hedge funds reducing their bearish positions to the lowest since April [4][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Euro Strength - The euro's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, which alleviated geopolitical tensions, and ongoing expectations of an impending rate cut by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar [5][10]. - Germany's historic large-scale fiscal spending plan has renewed investor confidence in the European economy, which has struggled with stagnation for years [5][10]. - The nearing end of the European Central Bank's tightening cycle contrasts with the potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, further benefiting the euro [5][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts believe the euro has strong momentum, with some suggesting it could become the largest economy outside the U.S. if trade barriers are raised [5][10]. - The euro is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing dollar pessimism, as traditional safe-haven support for the dollar diminishes [5][10]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, some strategists warn that the euro's short-term fair value may be overstretched, requiring significant catalysts such as U.S. tariffs, a collapse in U.S. Treasury yields, or aggressive Fed rate cuts to reach 1.20 USD [6][11].

美元破位引发大宗商品集体反弹，贵金属与有色金属齐涨。 周四公布的美国一季度GDP终值、新房销售数据双双疲软，推高降息预期。市场数据显示，对7月降息 概率的预期升至27%，9月更是高达84%。 隔夜，美元指数跌至2022年3月以来最低水平，触发大宗商品市场全面反弹。 美元指数再次跌破98关口，接近年内低点。 美元走弱直接提振了以美元计价的大宗商品的吸引力。黄金持续走高，上破3300美元/盎司。 上交所铜价上涨0.3%至每吨78820元人民币，伦敦市场铜价同样录得涨幅。铝、锌、镍等有色金属价格 也普遍上扬。 分析师预计，这轮商品反弹可能才刚刚开始，美联储政策转向和美元进一步贬值将为大宗商品提供更强 劲的上涨动力。 美元缘何破位98关口？ 这一增幅意味着欧洲北约成员国将新增近7000亿美元的防务支出。虽然分摊到十年完成，但这无疑将为 欧洲经济注入新动能，与此前德国增加财政刺激的承诺相呼应。 其次，由于美国宏观数据的持续疲软，对美联储降息的预期持续升温。 分析指出，非"硬"数据开始追赶"软"数据的疲弱表现，新屋销售的骤降尤为引人注目。这加剧了市场对 经济放缓的担忧，推动投资者重新定价美联储的政策路径。 美联储主席鲍威 ...