中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-13 非农数据好于预期，铂钯价格小幅回落 据CNBC报道，隔夜公布的美国1⽉⾮农就业数据⼈⼝好于预期，失业率出 现下降。今⽇美元指数⼩幅⾛强，铂钯价格承压下⾏。据同花顺数据，截 ⾄2026年2⽉12⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价544.9元/克，跌幅 1.05%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为430.05元/克，跌幅1.48%。 铂观点：美国非农数据好于预期，铂金小幅回落 主要逻辑：据CNBC,美国1月非农就业人数增加13万，高于预期，失业率降 至4.3%。今日美元指数小幅走强，铂金价格承压回落。短期来看，当前欧 洲对俄罗斯铂族金属制裁预期抬升、美伊地缘问题反复、美联储降息预期 波动均持续扰动市场，加之长假临近资金交投趋于谨慎，市场仍处于震荡 整理的阶段。长期来看，美国仍处于降息通道中，特朗普造成的美联储独 立性受损和全球政治经济秩序松动，促使美元信用走弱的长期趋势延续， 有利于价格长期弹性的释放。策略方面，本周铂钯比值回落到偏低位区 间，建议择机关注多铂空钯机会。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong employment data in the US has postponed the short - term interest rate cut expectation, and precious metals have entered a stage of shock consolidation. The market has postponed the next interest rate cut from June to July. Spot gold remains above $5000, and after a significant pullback from the historical high at the beginning of the month, it has recovered about half of the decline. The market has shifted from the "accelerated rise" stage to the "macro - verification" driven stage [1]. - For gold, the sentiment has ebbed, the logic remains unchanged, but the upward rhythm has slowed down. For silver, high volatility continues, and the structural supply shortage still exists [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: Firstly, the non - farm payrolls in January were stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, strengthening the Fed's inclination to keep interest rates unchanged, which put pressure on the gold price. Secondly, the US dollar index remained relatively stable, and the US Treasury yields rebounded, resulting in a lack of trend - driving force for precious metals in the short term. Thirdly, the gold price soared to a new historical high driven by speculative buying, then pulled back about 13% in two days, and has now recovered about half of the decline, indicating a shift from momentum - driven to macro - verification - driven [1]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, geopolitical disturbances, disputes over the Fed's independence, and the global asset re - allocation trend still provide core support. The structural logic of the previous rise has not changed fundamentally, but the upward rhythm will be more moderate, and the volatility will be significantly lower than that in the previous accelerated stage [1]. Silver - **Logic**: Firstly, silver is more sensitive to interest rates and the US dollar. After the release of strong employment data, its volatility increased, and the daily amplitude was significantly higher than that of gold. Secondly, silver has fallen about 30% from its historical high on January 29th, and the recovery process is more intense, indicating that its small market capacity and low liquidity lead to amplified elasticity. Thirdly, in terms of supply and demand, the silver market is expected to be in a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year. Investment demand is still the core variable. The tight inventory pattern in the Chinese market has not been fully alleviated, and the exchange has strengthened management of the delivery process, which may suppress some speculative squeezing behavior in the short term [2]. - **Outlook**: Overall, silver is in a game between the pressure on its financial attributes and the structural supply shortage. Its price path depends more on the confirmation of the macro direction. Once the real interest rate falls again, the elasticity of the silver price may be reflected again [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: No detailed information provided. - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index is 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index is 2290.96, up 0.41% [41]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on February 11, 2026, is 4268.21, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a decline of 1.35% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.30% in the past month, and an increase of 11.61% since the beginning of the year [43].

当地时间2月12日，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指下跌1.34%，纳指下跌2.03%，标普500指数下跌1.57%，银行股、芯片股、能 源股普遍走低。纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌3%，中概股多数下跌。此外，纽约尾盘现货黄金收跌超3%，现货白银收跌超10%。 大型科技股普跌 当地时间周四，美股大型科技股普遍下跌，苹果跌幅达5%，博通下跌超3%，亚马逊、Meta和特斯拉跌超2%，英伟达跌超1%，谷歌A微跌。据私募排排 网数据，截至2025年年底，知名投资人凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）对特斯拉进行了大规模减仓，减持了67.51万股，持股数量环比减少了18.81%。 贵金属板块重挫，美国黄金公司、泛美白银跌幅超8%。能源股也集体下跌，雪佛龙跌超1.8%，埃克森美孚跌近3%，西方石油跌3.7%。芯片股普遍下跌， 费城半导体指数跌2.5%，AMD、博通、英特尔跌超3%。银行股也全线下挫，富国银行跌近3%，高盛跌超4%，摩根士丹利跌超4%，花旗跌超5%。不过 存储概念股出现上涨，闪迪、希捷科技涨超5%，西部数据涨超3%。 中概股普遍下挫，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3%，虎牙、腾讯音乐跌超10%，亿咖通跌超8%，爱奇艺、贝壳跌超 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is supporting gold prices, creating opportunities for upward movement in gold prices, with key support levels at $5050 and $5000, and resistance at $5100 and $5200 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have been fluctuating around high levels, with a potential for upward breakout due to factors such as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank demand [2][6]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly higher than December's 50,000 and above the market expectation of 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.4% to 4.3% [2][6]. - Despite strong non-farm data, the market still anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, which continues to support gold prices [3][7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold attempted to break above the $5100 level but failed to maintain that position, resulting in a high-level consolidation [3][7]. - Key support levels to watch include the daily low of $5044 and the psychological level of $5000, while resistance remains at $5100, with a potential upward target of $5200 [3][7]. - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with the 5-day moving average forming a golden cross, while the MACD indicator's bearish crossover is slowing down, indicating a potential rebound demand for gold [3][7].

Group 1: U.S. Labor Market Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025 [1][5] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.3%, compared to the expected and previous value of 4.4% [1][5] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and the revised previous value of 0.1% [1][5] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.5%, slightly better than expected [1][5] - The report revised the total employment growth for 2025 from an initial estimate of 584,000 down to 181,000, indicating a more significant weakness in the labor market than previously recognized [1][5] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the labor market data release, traders reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, fully pricing in a rate cut in July instead of June [1][5] - The strong performance of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report has cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting the dollar index [2][8] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that wage growth in the Eurozone is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, supporting the view that interest rates can remain stable [6] - Wage growth is projected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year in Q4, up from 2.6% in Q3, although still below the peak of over 5% in 2024 [6] - The ECB noted that the upward trajectory of wages is related to the diminishing mechanical downward effects from large one-time payments issued in 2024 but not in 2025, which are expected to dissipate by 2026 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the strong US labor market data has lowered the recent rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25BP interest rate cut in June has dropped to 48%. The performance of assets in response to the non - farm payroll data is limited, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data on Friday [2]. - Domestically, the CPI in January was lower than expected, and the PPI was higher than expected, which is beneficial to the cyclical sectors. The A - share market is in a shrinking volume shock before the holiday, and the window guidance on star stocks only affects the corresponding sectors, indicating the resilience of the market. Investors can decide their holiday positions based on market performance and bet on the Hong Kong stock technology sector during the holiday [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - US Non - farm Report: The seasonally adjusted non - farm employment population in January increased by 130,000, far exceeding market expectations and reaching the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. After the release of non - farm data, traders lowered their expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts. Trump praised the non - farm data and urged the Fed to cut interest rates to the "lowest in the world." The US Labor Secretary said the January employment report showed a strong US economy [5][6][7]. - Fed: Schmid advocates maintaining interest rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level, believing that further interest rate cuts may lead to persistent inflation. Milan said he would be willing to stay at the Fed if nominated [8]. - Other News: Trump met with the Israeli Prime Minister and said reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred option." A source said Trump was privately weighing whether to withdraw from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%. The Ministry of Commerce announced that the bonus scale of the prize - winning invoices during the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday will exceed 10 billion. Wenzhou Technology expressed extreme disappointment and strong dissatisfaction with the latest ruling of the Dutch corporate court in the Nexperia case. Three departments issued matters related to the connection of value - added tax preferential policies at the import stage after the implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law. The State Council announced that China will fully establish a unified national power market system by 2035, with the proportion of market - traded electricity increasing steadily. The low - altitude demonstration verification of the Long March 10 launch vehicle system and the maximum dynamic pressure escape flight test of the Mengzhou manned spacecraft system were successful [9][10][11]. Futures Market Tracking The text provides multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [15][22][29]. Spot Market Tracking - The text presents charts of important index valuations, Shenwan valuations, market weekly average trading volume, market weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading volume, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [36][37][40]. Liquidity Tracking The text provides charts of the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [45].

上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周四（2月12日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计105072千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 沪金主力盘内震荡偏强，周四（2月12日）黄金期货开盘价1133.80元/克，截至目前最高1135.94元/克， 最低1118.20元/克。截止发稿报1126.12元/克，涨幅0.03%，成交量为246621手，持仓为154552手，日持 仓增加5958手。 | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 105072 | 0 | 美国 1 月非农就业数据超预期，但历史数据大幅下修反映就业市场实际疲软，美联储降息预期仍存；中 东地缘风险升温，交易所调整白银套期保值额度。 ...

不过新修正的2025年12月非农数据也显示，12月的美国新增就业被小幅下修至4.8万人。 作者｜曾佳 发自美国华盛顿 美东时间2月11日，美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局（BLS）推迟发布的就业数据显示，1月份美国非农就业人数大幅增加 了13万人，远高于市场预期的5.5万。当月美国失业率也意外回落至4.3%，优于维持在4.4%的预期。 这份强劲的美国劳动力市场报告于美股盘前发布后，美股期货纷纷走高，标普500指数期货上涨0.4%，纳斯达克100指 数期货上涨0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数期货上扬204点，涨幅0.4%。 美国国债收益率全线上升，市场对美联储今年的降息预期降温。10年期美债收益率上行至4.202%，攀升5.7个基点。2年 期美债收益率迅速攀升8.3个基点至3.537%。30年期国债收益率上升3.7个基点至4.825%。 图片来自视觉中国 美国国债收益率全线上升，市场对美联储今年的降息预期减弱 美国劳动力市场在2026年伊始的就业增长强于预期，在一定程度上缓解了过去一段时间外界对美国劳动力市场持续疲软 的担忧。这份最新就业报告印证，美国劳动力市场依然处于低增长和低裁员的模式中。 …… ...

2月11日，美国1月非农就业报告虽延迟发布，却引发全球市场剧烈震荡，黄金价格短线大幅跳水。数据显示，当月美国非农就 业人口新增13万人，显著超出市场预期的7万人，创下2025年4月以来的最大单月增幅；失业率降至4.3%，较前值下降0.1个百分 点，低于市场预期的4.4%。这份报告不仅打消了市场对美国就业疲软的担忧，更直接推动美联储降息预期大幅后移。 值得注意的是，报告对历史数据进行了惯性下修：2025年就业人数累计下修89.8万人，调整后当年月均新增就业仅1.5万人，远 低于初始公布的4.9万人。这既反映出美国就业市场仍处于低增长、高韧性的平衡状态，也让投资者在解读美国就业数据时更为 谨慎。 降息预期明显降温 超预期的就业数据直接冲击了市场对美联储政策宽松的定价。数据发布前，市场普遍预期首次降息或于6月落地，而当前首次降 息时间已推迟至7月，且对全年降息幅度的预期同步下调。市场预计2026年美联储将降息50个基点，较此前预期减少10个基点。 据CME美联储观察工具显示，3月降息25个基点的概率从19.6%骤降至6%，维持利率不变的概率飙升至94%；4月降息概率也从 36%降至不足19%。受此影响，美元指数短线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. January non-farm payroll report significantly exceeded market expectations, leading investors to quickly reduce bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March. However, the upward momentum of the dollar was not sustained, and gold prices remained stable amid strong economic data and political calls for easing [1][4]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, surpassing the expected 70,000 and the revised 48,000 from the previous month [1]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, while average hourly earnings maintained a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1]. - Strong employment data compressed the space for a March rate cut and provided temporary support for the dollar [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March rose to approximately 95%, up from 80% the previous day [1]. - The strong employment figures led to a temporary rise in the dollar, with the euro falling below 1.19 against the dollar, indicating a valid logic chain of "strong employment—reduced rate cut expectations—dollar rebound" [1][4]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold experienced a technical pullback due to reduced rate cut expectations, but the decline was limited, remaining above $1,950 [2]. - Multiple factors prevented continuous selling pressure on gold, suggesting a range-bound market rather than a trend reversal [3]. - The market structure is characterized by a strong employment backdrop versus expectations of rate cuts and risks to policy independence, indicating that both the dollar and gold may continue to oscillate until new macro data emerges [4][5]. Group 4: Future Indicators - Upcoming U.S. CPI data will be a critical variable; easing inflation could reinforce expectations for rate cuts, while stubborn inflation may delay policy easing [3]. - Initial jobless claims data will provide short-term volatility references, but the mid-term direction will depend on inflation trends and policy signals [3].