钛媒体App 1月16日消息，银河证券指出，2026年1月15日，央行发布2025年12月金融数据，并举行新闻 发布会。12月的金融数据有两个重要的积极信号，一是再次显示居民存款搬家正在进行，二是企业中长 期贷款出现回暖。新闻发布会上，人民银行推出八项结构性货币政策措施，并强调在实施过程中，将与 财政贴息、担保和风险成本分担等财政政策协同配合。同时，央行指出今年降准降息还有一定空间。结 构性货币政策工具的宽松在1月份率先落地，符合先前判断。银河证券认为当下货币政策呈现与财政政 策高度协同发力的特征，一季度50BP的降准仍有望落地，保持流动性充裕配合政府债券发行，全面降 息仍需等待时机。稳预期（外部）、稳就业（内部）、稳市场（金融）将是观察全面降息可能落地的主 线。（广角观察） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment outlooks: - Positive outlook: Zinc [12], Platinum, Palladium [29], Palm oil, Soybean oil [153] - Neutral outlook: Copper, Lead, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast aluminum alloy, LPG, Propylene, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Pure benzene, Bean meal, Bean one, Corn, Cotton, Egg, Peanut [9][15][18][25][109][140][148][158][161][170][175][182] - Negative outlook: Industrial silicon, Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic soda, Pulp, PVC, Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Offset printing paper, White sugar, Live pig [42][72][76][79][82][87][117][120][122][143][165][178] 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Gold is influenced by rising risk - aversion sentiment, while silver is affected by tariff expectation fluctuations [6]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are restricted by the strengthening US dollar; zinc is prone to rise and difficult to fall; lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory; tin is consolidating at a high level; aluminum is slightly under pressure; alumina is oscillating downward; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [9][12][15][18][25]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For PX, the valuation is following the cost - end correction, and the future supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually; PTA processing fees are at a high level, and attention should be paid to reducing processing fees; MEG has limited downward valuation space [66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil is affected by the approaching implementation of the US biofuel policy, and the sentiment in the oil and fat sector has improved; soybean oil's rebound height is limited due to insufficient soybean - related themes; soybean meal requires waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade consultations; corn requires attention to the spot market; white sugar is mainly in a weak operation; cotton continues to be in an adjustment state [153][158][161][165][170]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The closing price of SHFE gold 2602 was 1,035.20, with a daily decline of 0.52%. The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded [6]. - **Silver**: The closing price of SHFE silver 2602 was 22,713, with a daily decline of 0.41%. Tariff expectation fluctuations have an impact on the price [6]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 102,560, with a daily decline of 1.26%. The strengthening US dollar restricts price increases [9]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 25,090, with a daily increase of 2.51%. It is prone to rise and difficult to fall [12]. - **Lead**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17,550, with a daily increase of 0.95%. The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [15]. - **Tin**: The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 433, with a daily increase of 4.80%. It is consolidating at a high level [18]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,375, with a decrease of 220 compared to the previous day. It is slightly under pressure [25]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2,789, with a decrease of 11 compared to the previous day. It is oscillating downward [25]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [25]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,130, with a decline of 1.82%. The valuation is following the cost - end correction, and the future supply - demand is expected to weaken [66]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 5,048, with a decline of 1.33%. The polyester production cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation intensity [66]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 3,817, with a decline of 1.29%. The valuation has limited downward space [66]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The closing price of the main contract (day session) was 8,578, with a decline of 1.94%. The approaching implementation of the US biofuel policy has improved the sentiment in the oil and fat sector [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The closing price of the main contract (day session) was 7,938, with a decline of 0.78%. The rebound height is limited due to insufficient soybean - related themes [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,740, with a decline of 0.33%. Wait for the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [158]. - **Corn**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,295, with an increase of 0.83%. Pay attention to the spot market [161]. - **White Sugar**: The futures main contract price was 5,280, with a decline of 19. It is mainly in a weak operation [165]. - **Cotton**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,675, with a decline of 0.91%. It continues to be in an adjustment state [170].

日期 2026 年 1 月 16 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 国债日报 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月15日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.280 | 111.440 | 111.190 | 111.260 | -0.090 | -0.08 ...

Group 1: Economic Support Measures - The central bank has implemented a "combination punch" to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates this year [4][17]. Group 2: Trade and Export Statistics - According to customs statistics, China's foreign trade imports and exports are expected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, a growth of 3.8%, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%) and imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%) [4][17]. - Cumulative steel exports in 2025 are projected to be 11,901.9 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, setting a new historical high [4][17]. Group 3: Steel Industry Performance - As of January 15, the average cost for 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,377 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 45 yuan per ton and a profit of 68 yuan per ton from low electricity costs [5][18]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel mills this week is 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week, while daily molten iron production is 2.28 million tons, down by 1.49 million tons from last week [6][20]. Group 4: Steel Supply and Demand Dynamics - This week, the supply of five major steel products reached 8.19 million tons, a slight increase of 0.62 million tons (0.1% growth) week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 69,100 tons (0.6% decline) to 12.47 million tons [7][20]. - The apparent consumption volume was 8.26 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [20]. Group 5: Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 4.3807 million tons, while demand increased by 15,280 tons to 1.9034 million tons [8][21]. - Hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory reduction of 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 million tons, and demand increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 million tons [9][22]. Group 6: Market Outlook and Strategies - The short-term trading range for rebar is suggested to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled coil is expected to trade between 3,250 and 3,350 yuan per ton [10][23]. - The alloy market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with overall supply remaining low and production slightly decreasing, while cost support remains stable [11][24].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points on various monetary policy tools and will enhance these tools [1][6] - Specific measures include increasing the quotas for agricultural and small enterprise loans, expanding support for technological innovation and green projects, and promoting real estate market destocking [1][6][8] Group 2 - There is still room for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, with the current average reserve requirement ratio at 6.3% [2][6] - The stability of the RMB exchange rate and the ongoing easing cycle of the USD provide a favorable environment for potential rate cuts [2][6] Group 3 - The policy shift emphasizes the importance of effective transmission of monetary policy and structural optimization rather than merely increasing the scale of monetary expansion [3][7] - The focus industries for the policy adjustments include technology innovation, consumption and elderly care, green low-carbon projects, and support for small and private enterprises [3][8] Group 4 - The recent liquidity improvements and foreign capital inflows may support a bullish trend in stock indices, particularly in sectors like technology and green projects [4][8] - The 10-year government bond yield has stabilized between 1.8% and 1.9%, indicating a potential adjustment to a key position, with expectations of a flat yield curve in the medium term [5][9]

2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5870，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.84%；硅铁主力合约 SF2603 收于 5610，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.41%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 | | | | | 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度 5000 亿 | | | | | 元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域；将商业用 | | | | | 房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一 ...

1月16日，金融界财经早餐，宏观政策、资本市场、行业板块、公司个股要闻一览： 1、《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》。文章部署了城市工作方 面的重点任务，着力优化现代化城市体系，着力建设富有活力的创新城市。立足城市资源禀赋和基础条 件，精心培育创新生态，在发展新质生产力上不断取得突破。 2、央行推出八项结构性货币政策举措：包括自2026年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分 点。下调后，3个月、6个月和1年期支农支小再贷款利率分别为0.95%、1.15%和1.25%，再贴现利率为 1.5%，抵押补充贷款利率为1.75%，专项结构性货币政策工具利率为1.25%；商用房购房贷款最低首付比下 调至30%等，加大对实体经济支持力度； 3、人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，从今年看，降准降息还有一定 空间。从法定存款准备金率看，目前金融机构的法定存款准备金率平均为6.3%，降准仍然还有空间。 4、国务院新闻办公室昨天下午举行新闻发布会，央行有关负责人介绍，人民银行将推出8项政策措施，进 一步助力经济结构转型优化。包括：下调各类结构性货币政策工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced eight significant policy measures to support the high-quality development of the real economy, focusing on optimizing economic structure and enhancing credit support for key sectors [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The PBOC will lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, establish a special relending quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises, and reduce the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing to 30% [3][6]. - Specific interest rates after the reduction include: 0.95% for 3-month, 1.15% for 6-month, and 1.25% for 1-year agricultural and small business relending; 1.5% for rediscount rates; and 1.75% for supplementary mortgage loans [6]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of these measures by coordinating with fiscal policies such as interest subsidies and risk cost sharing [3][6]. Group 2: Structural Tools Expansion - The PBOC's structural tools will see increased quotas and expanded support areas, including a rise in the relending quota for technological innovation and transformation from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [6][7]. - The support scope for carbon reduction tools will be broadened to include energy-efficient upgrades and green transformation projects, encouraging banks to finance comprehensive green transitions [7]. - The measures are expected to create a synergistic effect, guiding more financial resources to support critical national economic strategies and weak links [7]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Flexibility - The PBOC has indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, with the current average reserve requirement ratio at 6.3% [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the implicit lower limit for the reserve requirement ratio is around 5%, indicating a potential reduction space of at least 130 basis points [9]. - The PBOC's recent adjustments to relending rates and the stabilization of net interest margins provide additional room for interest rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC has established a 1 trillion yuan relending facility specifically for private enterprises to enhance financial support for small and medium-sized private businesses [11][12]. - This relending initiative aims to address financing difficulties faced by private enterprises, particularly medium-sized ones, by providing low-cost funding and clear incentives for commercial banks [12]. - The PBOC will continue to improve financial services for private enterprises and enhance collaboration with fiscal and industrial policies to create a better development environment [13].

银河证券指出，2026年1月15日，央行发布2025年12月金融数据，并举行新闻发布会。12月的金融数据 有两个重要的积极信号，一是再次显示居民存款搬家正在进行，二是企业中长期贷款出现回暖。新闻发 布会上，人民银行推出八项结构性货币政策措施，并强调在实施过程中，将与财政贴息、担保和风险成 本分担等财政政策协同配合。同时，央行指出今年降准降息还有一定空间。结构性货币政策工具的宽松 在1月份率先落地，符合我们12月25日发布的四季度货币政策委员会例会解读的判断。我们认为当下货 币政策呈现与财政政策高度协同发力的特征，一季度50BP的降准仍有望落地，保持流动性充裕配合政 府债券发行，全面降息仍需等待时机。稳预期（外部）、稳就业（内部）、稳市场（金融）将是观察全 面降息可能落地的主线。 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various relending tools by 25 basis points, which is not a traditional cut in reverse repo rates or LPR, but a targeted approach through structural tools [1] - This measure is expected to enhance banks' willingness to lend, promote stable credit growth, and alleviate pressure on bank interest margins [1] - The central bank is simultaneously expanding relending tools and innovating mechanisms, reinforcing targeted support for key areas such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital sectors [1] Group 2 - The central bank indicates that there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions this year, but short-term policy adjustments are expected to remain restrained due to ongoing export performance and short-term economic momentum [1] - The anticipated reduction in reverse repo rates for the year is expected to be around 10 basis points [1] - The central bank continues to maintain a policy focus on keeping the exchange rate stable at a reasonable level, prioritizing the prevention of excessive exchange rate fluctuations and enhancing corporate hedging capabilities rather than using exchange rate adjustments to gain trade competitiveness [1]