证券研究报告 降息落地后资金利率中枢有望继续向政策利率靠拢 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250511 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3降息落地后资金利率中枢有望继续向政策利率靠拢 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 ➢ 4 月政府债净融资 7938 亿元，其中国债净融资 2658 亿，地方债净融资 5281 亿元。本周披露的 10Y 附息国债和中央金融机构注资特别国债规模低于预 期，而 63D 贴现国债发行规模略高于预期，我们预计 5 月国债净融资规模约 8600 亿元；同时维持 5 月 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, is expected to stimulate demand and lower funding costs [2][6][8] - The capital market requires increased order demand and liquidity to support valuation expansion, which is anticipated to improve with the recent monetary policies [3][4] - The ongoing monetary easing in conjunction with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is likely to lead to increased liquidity in the market [8][4] Group 2 - Investors may have missed the initial market rally due to a lack of understanding of institutional fund movements, which are crucial for stock price increases [9][11] - The analysis of institutional behavior through big data can reveal market truths, helping investors avoid being misled by price movements [11][16] - The phenomenon of "institutional shakeout" indicates that institutional funds may temporarily suppress stock prices to eliminate weaker hands before a potential price increase [15][17]

一、央妈牛市大放水！央行就放出择机降准降息，并且已经有了行动，目前的环境是否迎来大幅降息降准窗口期呢？ 最近美国在关税问题上一直找中国谈，咱们也在评估中，这说明双方已经开始接触了。说不定一两个月内就能开始谈关税的事儿，这可是个积极的信号啊！ 再看看央行，4月搞了12000亿元的买断式逆回购操作，而且是首次缩量，这是啥意思呢？5月会不会降准呢？ 我觉得5月底到6月份说不定会降息。为啥呢？6月份有60000多亿的国债要到期，要是美联储不降息，美国政府就借不到新债来还旧债。所以，美联储6月份 降息几乎是板上钉钉的事儿。按照这个逻辑，中国在5月到6月之间降准降息的概率也挺大的。 二、超4000只个股下跌，上证指数跌0.30%，深证成指微跌0.69%，创业板指跌0.87%。 不过，整体市场还算不错，还是有机会。五一假期期间，海外市场的表现都不错，还有不少利好消息。首先是人民币资产越来越有吸引力，其次是港股提前 拉出了阳线。 再加上中美贸易谈判释放出缓和信号，市场情绪整体比较积极。A股市场也迎来了五月的开门红，新周期开始了，情绪也在逐步回暖。机构对五月市场的走 势预测，基本都挺乐观的。 撰稿、收集数据不易，觉得有帮助的朋 ...

新华财经北京5月9日电（王菁）债市周五（5月9日）偏弱整理，经过前两日逐渐消化系列政策影响，期 限券市场走势逐渐回稳，银行间现券收益率上行0.5BP左右，国债期货主力多数小幅收跌；公开市场单 日净投放770亿元，资金利率持续走低。 机构认为，货币市场利率有望迎来新一轮补降，短端债券确定性强，收益率曲线或趋于陡峭化。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约涨0.02%报120.370，10年期主力合约跌0.01%报109.060，5年 期主力合约跌0.07%报106.095，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.346。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间5月8日，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨10.99BPs报3.880%，3年期 美债收益率涨13.08BPs报3.873%，5年期美债收益率涨13.79BPs报3.999%，10年期美债收益率涨 12.48BPs报4.392%，30年期美债收益率涨7.71BPs报4.850%。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率普遍延续上行，10年期日债收益率尾盘上行3.8BPs至1.363%。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间5月8日，10年期法债收益率涨4.3BPs报 ...

Group 1 - The central bank announced a set of ten financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2][4][6] - The policy measures are a continuation of last year's "9.24 policy package" and are designed to address the challenges posed by rising tariffs and the need to boost domestic demand [3][4] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in April, indicating a contraction, with export new orders dropping to their lowest level of 44.7% in 2023, highlighting the impact of external demand on domestic economic stability [4][5] Group 2 - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio will lower the average reserve requirement from 6.6% to 6.2%, which is expected to reduce financing costs for financial institutions and enhance their ability to support the real economy [7][9] - The policy interest rate cut is anticipated to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points, which will subsequently reduce the cost of housing loans and potentially boost consumer spending [10][11] - The adjustment of housing provident fund loan rates aims to align them with commercial loan rates, thereby enhancing the affordability of housing loans and supporting consumer demand [11][12] Group 3 - The financial policies also focus on stabilizing the capital market, with measures to optimize monetary policy tools and support the Central Huijin Investment Company in maintaining market stability [14] - The bond market showed a steepening yield curve, indicating a more reasonable liquidity environment, while the stock market reacted positively to the policy announcements [15][14] - Analysts predict that the central bank may continue to implement further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions throughout the year, with an expected total policy interest rate cut of 0.6 percentage points for the year [16][16]

"钱箱子"正在打开。降准降息像及时雨般洒向市场，一切如同夏日开始唤醒蓬勃生机。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 李凯旋 北京报道 同时，稳楼市的重要性被重申，被看作"对畅通内需循环有重要意义"。为此，"降低公积金贷款利率0.25个百分 点"这一工具先行，让更多正在观望的购房者决心入市，而一系列包括新融资制度、再贷款、增加高品质住房资金 供给等工具跟上，促进房企化债及转型。 在优化限购限售之后，房地产迎来了一场由内至外的"改革"，资金并非简单的杠杆工具，而是让房地产峰回路转 的新机遇。市场因此迎来迭代，高品质住房炙手可热，并反过来提升房企投资意愿，存量房收储则使得保障性住 房市场扩容。 问题都会一一找到答案，而房地产则要构建新的循环。 一次性下降0.25个百分点 正如同多个行业正在实行"以旧换新"，让消费者进入市场一样，会议明确，降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个 百分点，5年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.60%，其他期限利率则同步调整，通过降低成本，给购房者带来"真 金白银"的优惠。 5月7日，国新办举办了新闻发布会，有关部门负责人对"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"情况进 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a package of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [1][4] - A 0.1% decrease in the policy interest rate, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4] - The current A-share market is experiencing a combination of the new "Guo Jiu Tiao" policies and a "4 trillion" investment trend, with expectations for a continued "slow bull" market through 2025 [4] Group 2 - Historical data shows that A-share indices have generally increased following previous reserve requirement reductions since 2018, with significant gains observed after the two reductions in 2024 [4] - The financial sector, particularly large financial institutions, is expected to benefit directly from the liquidity easing, as evidenced by recent stock price increases in banks, securities, and insurance companies [4][6] - For the banking sector, the reserve requirement cut is expected to lower funding costs and alleviate pressure on net interest margins, while also stimulating corporate credit demand [6] - The securities industry is projected to see a recovery in profitability in 2025 due to sustained market liquidity, with a focus on brokers benefiting from increased investor participation and comprehensive leading brokers expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and potential mergers [6]

流动性释放：降准预计释放长期资金约 1 万亿元，直接降低银行负债成本，广发证券测算此举 可提升上市银行净息差 0.06bp ； 政策协同：招行、中信银行等获批设立金融资产投资公司（ AIC ），进一步强化对科技企业 的股权投资支持，推动银行向综合金融服务转型。 2 、 纺织服装：政策催化与出口预期改善 一、主要指数表现： 三大指数集体调整 截至收盘， A 股三大指数呈现 集体调整 态势。上证指数 下跌 0.28% ， 收于 33 4 2.00 点；深证成指 下跌 0. 69 % 至 101 26 . 83 点；创业板指 下跌 0.87 % ，收于 20 11 . 77 点。 另外 ，从日内波动看，市场情绪仍显谨慎，沪深两市成交额较前一日缩量 1 014 亿 元，降至 1 1920 亿元，显示资金观望情绪浓厚。 全球市场方面，美股隔夜表现分化，道琼斯指数上涨 0.62% ，纳斯达克指数涨 1.07% ；显 示全球市场在美联储政策预期与经济数据博弈下呈现复杂格局。 二、领涨板块解析：政策驱动与行业利好共振 1 、 银行板块：降准降息提振估值 银行板块逆势走高，兴业银行、青岛银行等个股涨幅超 2% 。核心驱动来自 ...

Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [1] - The policy interest rate will be lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%, and the personal housing provident fund loan rate will decrease by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate for loans over five years dropping from 2.85% to 2.60% [1] Industry Developments - Industrial banks are increasing their asset investment companies (AIC), with Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and China CITIC Bank announcing plans to establish AICs with registered capital of 100 billion yuan, 150 billion yuan, and 100 billion yuan respectively [3] - The first batch of bank-issued technology innovation bonds has been announced, with a total issuance cap of 640.5 billion yuan, indicating a strong market response to new policies [4] Housing Loan Adjustments - Major cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have lowered the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the rate for first-time homebuyers over five years to a historical low of 2.6% [5] - Other cities such as Zhengzhou and Ningbo have also announced similar reductions, with the new rates effective immediately for new loans and set to apply to existing loans from January 1, 2026 [5] Banking Sector Performance - In the annual reports of 42 listed banks, total operating income reached 5.65 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.08%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.35% to 2.14 trillion yuan [7] - In the first quarter, 42 A-share banks reported total assets exceeding 314 trillion yuan, with a slight decline in operating income and net profit compared to the previous year [8] Corporate Changes - Dazhou Bank's shareholding structure has changed significantly, with Dazhou High-tech Innovation Co., Ltd. acquiring approximately 15.32 billion shares, raising its stake to 49.2%, thus becoming a state-controlled city commercial bank [9][10] - Jiangsu Bank has received approval to acquire Jiangsu Danyang Su Yin Village Bank and establish four new branches, indicating ongoing consolidation in the banking sector [11]

宏观层面，央行宣布实施降准降息及下调公积金利率三大举措，但对需求端实际提振有限，玻璃行业仍 面对过剩压力。供应端继续收缩，本周开工率75.24%，环比减少0.22%，产能利用率78.02%，环比减少 0.41个百分点，周产量也回落至109.19万吨，为2个月最低。需求端起色缓慢，加工厂倾向于轻仓运行， 中游较大库存的压制下，一定程度上使得短期反弹被压制。本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存环增近 4%或257.1万重箱至6756重箱，同比增加10.38%。总之，供应端压力缓慢减弱，但需求端起色缓慢，对 行业运行仍存负反馈，意味着玻璃在未来将继续面临过剩的压力，市场预期偏悲观。关注全球市场风险 偏好、下游产销情况。【策略推荐】:FG关注【1040，1070】，5日均线承压。 机构 核心观点 中辉期货 玻璃市场预期偏悲观 新世纪期货 玻璃基本面缺乏推涨动力 5月9日盘中，玻璃期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至1042.00元。截止发稿，玻璃主力合约报1045.00 元，跌幅0.95%。 玻璃期货主力跌近1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 中辉期货：玻璃市场预期偏悲观 新世纪期货：玻璃基本面缺乏推涨动力 近期部分 ...