这段时间，地表最强的美国发动了大规模的"关税战"。 世界各国，谈及此事，纷纷摇头。 独独俄罗斯，对"关税战"无感，他们只是在吃一个个的大瓜，因为他们被欧美制裁了多年了，无所谓美 国搞不搞"关税战"。 俄新社网站5月4日发表一篇重要文章：《新的反美联盟正在形成》。 该篇文章的作者是俄罗斯政治观察家德米特里▪科瑟列夫。 此文章用最近发生的几件事，说明"中日反美联盟"正在形成。 第一，日本被美国实行"关税政策"，日本对美国不再信任。 4月2日，特朗普发动了大规模的关税战，除了对中国下狠手，对盟友国家欧盟、日韩等，也没有放过。 日本人可是炸了锅了，这还是那个大哥吗？ 4月9日，美国提出对75个国家实行90天的缓冲期。这90天，就是来和各个国家进行谈判。 让日本不爽的是，美国虽然也对日本实行了90天的缓冲期，但提出的谈判条件非常苛刻，不仅包括对日 本汽车、钢铝等继续实行25%的关税，还提出苛刻条件：让日本大量减少和中国的贸易合作。 美国的条件，让日本非常被动，因为事关日本的重要经济利益，是碰到日本的经济大动脉了。 自己虽然在"关税战"之外，但是，对世界局势的评论，人家俄罗斯媒体可是很积极的。 最近，俄罗斯的媒体聊起了" ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken action against certain Chinese companies, demanding delisting due to non-compliance with audit transparency requirements, indicating a serious escalation in financial warfare against China [3][5] - The U.S. aims to create panic among international investors and Chinese companies regarding their future in the U.S. market, which is seen as a strategy to weaken the competitive edge of Chinese firms in the international capital market [5][7] - The U.S. is intensifying its technology decoupling efforts, with reports indicating that it is defining technology restrictions specifically targeting China, including blacklisting certain high-tech companies [7][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is attempting to sever ties in the high-tech sector, particularly targeting companies like Huawei in telecommunications and applying pressure on China's semiconductor industry, aiming to restrict access to critical technology areas [7][9] - Despite these efforts, China's technological development capabilities have proven resilient, and the country is expected to find solutions to overcome challenges posed by U.S. restrictions [9][11] - The geopolitical strategy employed by the U.S. to isolate China may not yield the desired results, as many countries are increasingly inclined to cooperate with China rather than the U.S. [11][13] Group 3 - The series of actions taken by the U.S. against China can be interpreted as a strategic move to divert attention from domestic issues, such as the pandemic and economic recession, by creating an external adversary [13][15] - The U.S. underestimates China's strategic resilience and ability to respond calmly to provocations, suggesting that the future U.S.-China competition will continue to escalate [15][17] - The ongoing confrontation is unlikely to resolve easily, and the outcome may depend more on strategic wisdom than on sheer strength, with both sides needing to navigate the complexities of their relationship carefully [17]

那句话一出口，全场哑了。 美国某位部长站台发言时感慨：最艰难的时候，中国没抛售美债，反而稳住了市场。他本意是想强调"你看，中国没落井下石"。可他万万没料到，美国人根 本不买账。一句话，彻底点燃了网友的火药桶。 有人怒了，说这简直是不要脸。你欠钱还好意思指责债主？更有人冷嘲热讽：靠别人撑着财政还敢在舆论上甩锅，哪来的底气？评论区翻车，炸开了锅。听 着似乎是抱怨，其实暴露的是深层次的不安——中国手里到底还握着多少美国的命门？ 美债这个事儿，真不是一时半会儿能说清楚的账。十多年前，中国一度是美债最大的持有者，最多时高达1.3万亿美元。现在呢？已经降到7590亿。表面上 看，中国是在撤。可就在刚过去的2月，悄悄又加仓235亿。这一下，美国人更糊涂了：你不是在脱钩吗？怎么还往回买？ 这一反常操作，直接击中美国人内心最敏感的神经。他们自己都清楚，现在的财政状况根本撑不起手里的烂摊子。36万亿的债务像一座山压在那儿，每年光 利息就得掏出1.4万亿，钱从哪来？就算你印，也得有人接盘吧？问题是，这盘子越来越烫，谁还愿意接？ 偏偏这时候，中国又出手了。这不是更让人心里发毛吗？ 中国的战略思维向来不是一句话两句话能猜透的。这几年， ...

Core Viewpoint - The halted $22.8 billion port deal involving Li Ka-shing reflects a deeper geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and China over global shipping routes and capital interests [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Li Ka-shing's company, CK Hutchison, planned to split its port assets into two packages for sale to Italian TIL and U.S. BlackRock, with BlackRock retaining significant control over management decisions [4]. - The core assets in the deal, Balboa and Cristobal ports, are crucial for global trade, with 21% of China's trade with Latin America passing through these ports, valued at over $600 billion annually [6]. - BlackRock holds a 22% stake in MSC, the parent company of TIL, while the Aponte family only holds 15%, indicating a complex ownership structure aimed at circumventing Chinese antitrust scrutiny [4][6]. Group 2: Chinese Response - China invoked its antitrust laws to challenge the deal, asserting that BlackRock and MSC could manipulate 10.4% of global container pricing [8]. - Concerns over data security were raised, as the ports' smart scheduling systems could expose sensitive information about Chinese shipping routes [8]. - Chinese officials and media criticized the transaction as a threat to national sovereignty, with strong public statements emphasizing the potential risks involved [8]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The deal's failure highlights the increasing divide in globalization, with the U.S. attempting to exert capital dominance while China seeks to build a multipolar trade network [15]. - Li Ka-shing's strategy to liquidate "inefficient assets" for investment in safer sectors like European telecom and energy is challenged by national security considerations [11]. - The contrasting approaches of the U.S. and China in port management are evident, with China gaining trust through cooperative projects, as seen in the success of the Piraeus port in Greece [13].

Group 1 - The core message from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is a warning to China to make concessions on trade and economic issues, or face escalated tensions from the U.S. [1][3] - Yellen's statements are seen as a psychological tactic aimed at pressuring China to comply with U.S. demands, such as reducing exports to the U.S. and opening more markets [5][9] - The backdrop of Yellen's remarks includes domestic economic challenges in the U.S., such as inflation and supply chain issues, as well as the shifting global economic landscape where China's influence is growing [7][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is concerned about China's advancements in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, particularly in semiconductors, which could threaten U.S. technological dominance [11][18] - Yellen's tough stance is also influenced by the political climate in the U.S., as upcoming elections create pressure for politicians to adopt a hardline approach towards China [9][20] - China's economic resilience and strategic partnerships globally provide it with leverage against potential U.S. sanctions, making a complete economic decoupling challenging for the U.S. [11][14] Group 3 - The potential for U.S. sanctions or embargoes on Chinese goods raises concerns about the impact on American consumers and businesses, as many rely on Chinese manufacturing [13][14] - The complexity of implementing sanctions is highlighted, as it could lead to significant disruptions in the U.S. economy, affecting prices and corporate operations [14][16] - The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry is characterized as a long-term strategic battle, with both sides needing to maintain their positions without overreacting to threats [16][18]

基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 29 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.3%至 77600 元/吨。隔夜 金属除锡外普遍上涨，美元隔夜下跌，投资者谨慎等待美国贸易政策的 进一步消息，并准备迎接一周密集的经济数据。由于美国政策动摇了人 们对美国资产可靠性的信心，美元创去年 7 月以来的最大月度跌幅。现 货市场，铜价重心下移，下游企业节前继续逢低备货，但备库逐渐进入 尾声，整体交投氛围表现一般。铜社会库存再度大幅去库，BACK 结构 月差拉大，持货商维持挺价惜售情绪。短期基本面整体继续偏强，但关 税大战带来的影响仍会在经济层面逐步显现，铜价潜在上行空间将受到 限制。中美博弈背景下铜价或维持高位震荡。技术上看，沪铜短期维持 偏强震荡，或向上回补跳空缺口，整体运行于 74500-78500 之间，关 注 78500 一线压力，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 铝： 截至 4 月 29 日收盘，沪铝主力 06 合约上涨 0.03%至 19930 元/吨。消 息面上，市场传闻俄铝宣布减产 10%，据了解俄铝是在去年底实施的减 产，不是增量信息。矿端供应逐步好转、价格逐步下行。氧化铝运行产 能周度环比上升 15 万吨至 873 ...

Group 1 - China's GDP has reached 75% of the United States, with manufacturing value added accounting for 30% of the global total [1][3] - Despite the impressive GDP growth, China's per capita GDP is still comparable to the United States' level in the 1970s, indicating a significant disparity in living standards [1][3] - In the technology sector, China faces challenges, particularly in chip production, with a self-sufficiency rate of less than 10% for 14nm chips and a reliance on imports for high-end chips [3] Group 2 - China's military capabilities have advanced rapidly, with a blue-water navy of 350 vessels and global coverage from the Dongfeng-41 missile [4] - The United States remains the world's leading military power, with 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and a military budget of $900 billion [4] - In global governance and cultural influence, China's presence is growing, exemplified by the expanding "Belt and Road" initiative and the global popularity of TikTok [4] Group 3 - The competition between China and the United States is entering a new phase by 2025, with the U.S. aiming to maintain its hegemony while China seeks rejuvenation [6] - The future of this competition is expected to be challenging, but maintaining a spirit of self-reliance is seen as crucial for achieving a brighter future [6]

Core Viewpoint - The National Market Supervision Administration (NMSA) has taken a firm stance against Li Ka-shing's attempt to sell ports to BlackRock, emphasizing that any circumvention of regulatory review will lead to legal consequences [1][4][10]. Group 1: Regulatory Response - The NMSA has stated that all parties involved in the transaction must not evade regulatory scrutiny and must not proceed with the transaction without approval [1][4]. - Li Ka-shing's initial plan to sell 43 ports for 22.8 billion to BlackRock has faced significant backlash and regulatory hurdles [2][4]. - The NMSA's intervention highlights the importance of maintaining fair competition and social stability in the market [2][4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The ports in question, particularly Balboa and Cristobal, are critical as they control access to the Panama Canal, which handles 6% of global maritime trade [7][11]. - China is the second-largest user of the Panama Canal, with 21% of its merchant ships utilizing this route, valued at approximately 270 billion [7]. - The potential sale of these ports to a U.S. entity raises concerns about increased control over shipping routes and the possibility of imposing additional costs on Chinese shipping operations [7][12]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The situation reflects broader geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, with implications for trade, law, and economics [11][12]. - The U.S. has shown interest in reasserting control over the Panama Canal, which could lead to unfavorable conditions for Chinese shipping companies [7][11]. - The urgency of developing alternative trade routes, such as the South America interoceanic railway, has been highlighted as a response to the potential risks posed by the port sale [9].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's government has clearly stated its intention to resist the U.S. efforts to form an "economic cooperation mechanism to contain China," emphasizing that it will not compromise its economic relationship with China for the sake of negotiations with the U.S. [1] Economic and Trade Relations - China has been Japan's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, with a trade volume expected to reach $370 billion in 2024, accounting for 20% of Japan's total foreign trade [2] - Japan's exports to China primarily consist of technology-intensive industries such as automobiles and semiconductor equipment, while China is a crucial source of rare earths and electronic components for Japan, with rare earths making up 60% of imports and electronic components 40% of Japan's supply chain [4] - Japanese automakers like Honda and Toyota derive 35% of their global profits from the Chinese market, indicating that a withdrawal from China could result in annual losses exceeding $40 billion for Japan's automotive industry [4] Strategic Resource Dependency - China controls 70% of global rare earth processing capacity, which is vital for Japan's electronics, high-end manufacturing, and defense industries [6] - Japan's precision instruments and core components are deeply embedded in China's manufacturing supply chain, creating an inseparable interdependence between the two nations [6] Japan's Refusal to Choose Sides - Japan faces significant economic constraints, with government debt totaling 300 trillion yen (approximately 300 billion USD) and a projected GDP growth rate of only 1.2% in 2024. The trade surplus with China, expected to reach $32 billion in 2024, is crucial for Japan's foreign exchange reserves and macroeconomic stability [10] - Despite being a U.S. ally, Japan adopts a pragmatic approach in strategic coordination, exemplified by its "differentiated execution" strategy in chip export controls, allowing exports of mature process chips to China to maintain its industrial competitiveness [10] - Japanese companies have invested over $1.3 trillion in China, creating 1.5 million jobs, with major corporations like Toyota and Sony pressuring the government to ensure stable market access to China [10] Global Implications - Japan's stance highlights the limits of alliance relationships when core economic interests are at stake, revealing inherent contradictions in unilateral alliance systems [11] - The deep economic interdependence between China and Japan demonstrates the resilience of globalized supply chains, suggesting that forced decoupling could lead to a lose-lose situation [11] - In the context of intensifying great power competition, smaller nations are increasingly adopting a "multi-balancing" strategy to maintain strategic autonomy [11] Future Outlook and Challenges - Japan's ability to maintain its "balancing act" will depend on effectively addressing strategic differences with the U.S. and structural conflicts with China [11] - Potential U.S. pressure through increased tariffs or security issues may force Japan to make difficult choices, while competition in sectors like semiconductors and new energy could pose new challenges to economic relations [11] - For China, continuing to expand openness and strengthen its advantages in key areas of the supply chain, particularly in rare earth processing and new energy markets, remains essential for navigating external changes [11]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming holiday period is expected to see a surge in tourism, particularly from American visitors who are taking advantage of lower prices and tax refunds on essential goods in China due to increased tariffs on imports in the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: American Tourists' Purchasing Behavior - American tourists are primarily visiting China to purchase essential goods that have become significantly more expensive in the U.S. due to tariffs [3]. - The increase in prices for American imports has led tourists to seek out cheaper alternatives in China, where they can also benefit from tax refunds [3]. Group 2: Key Products Purchased by American Tourists - **Clothing and Footwear**: American tourists are buying clothing and footwear, as the U.S. has shifted manufacturing to China and Southeast Asia, leading to higher prices in the U.S. [5]. - **Electronics**: Tourists are purchasing electronics such as smartphones and laptops, as prices in China are considerably lower than in the U.S. [7]. - **Wine**: American tourists are buying wine, particularly from regions in China known for high-quality production at lower prices compared to the U.S. [9]. - **Furniture**: Tourists are procuring furniture, as importing from China is more cost-effective than paying high tariffs on U.S. imports [11]. - **Toys**: Many tourists involved in import-export trade are purchasing toys, which are primarily produced in China, to avoid increased tariffs [13]. - **Hardware**: Tourists are also buying hardware products, as the prices have surged in the U.S. due to tariffs, making personal procurement in China more appealing [15].