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阿里Q4财报前瞻:AI云保持强劲增长,淘闪大幅减亏
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-01-09 12:00
Core Insights - The consensus on Wall Street is clear: despite macro headwinds facing its core e-commerce business, Alibaba is undergoing a profound transformation driven by accelerated cloud business and AI capital expenditures [1] - Analysts expect Alibaba Cloud to experience explosive revenue growth driven by AI demand, solidifying its position as China's leading AI enabler [1][2] - The "Quick Commerce" business under the "Taotian" group is making significant progress in loss control, indicating a balance between market share and profitability [1] Cloud Intelligence and AI Business - Alibaba Cloud is expected to be the highlight in the upcoming financial report, with revenue growth projected to exceed 35%, up from 34% in the previous quarter, and potentially accelerating to 40% by FY2027 [2] - Continuous investment in AI and the rollout of consumer applications are driving this growth, with significant upgrades to products like Qwen APP and Quark [2] - Analysts believe this will mark the ninth consecutive quarter of revenue growth acceleration for Alibaba Cloud, with current forecasts possibly being conservative [2] Profitability Analysis - Alibaba Cloud is expected to maintain a stable EBITA margin of around 9%, indicating effective cost control alongside rapid revenue expansion [3] - The overall adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 45% to 30 billion RMB, but this reflects a strategy of "exchanging short-term profits for long-term barriers" [5] - The losses in the instant retail segment are expected to narrow significantly, from 35 billion RMB in the previous quarter to 23 billion RMB, showing management's commitment to efficiency [5] Core E-commerce Business - Concerns about the slowdown in the core e-commerce business are attributed to short-term macroeconomic fluctuations rather than a loss of competitiveness [4] - The growth of the core e-commerce business is expected to slow to 3% due to a high base effect from the software service fee introduced last year [4] - Despite a challenging environment, Alibaba's market share in the core e-commerce sector remains relatively stable, indicating resilience [4] Valuation and Outlook - Morgan Stanley has lowered its adjusted EBITA expectations for FY2026 and FY2027 by 7% and 15%, respectively, and reduced the target price from $200 to $180, but maintains a bullish outlook [7] - Barclays retains a target price of $195, emphasizing Alibaba's attractiveness as a leading AI story in China [7] - The current stock price reflects expectations of consumer weakness but does not fully account for the acceleration in cloud business and improvements in loss-making segments [7]
同星科技(301252) - 2026年1月9日投资者关系活动记录表
2026-01-09 10:06
Group 1: Industry Trends - The company views the trend of "aluminum replacing copper" as significant due to cost advantages, with copper prices exceeding 100,000 CNY/ton while aluminum prices remain stable [2] - The shift from copper to aluminum in heat exchangers for refrigeration in appliances is a key development direction, indicating a broader industry trend [2] - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" is expanding from the air conditioning and home appliance sectors to high-growth areas such as new energy vehicles and power generation, highlighting its importance for both cost reduction and national resource security [2] Group 2: Automotive Sector - The company's automotive sector primarily collaborates with major clients such as Changan, JAC, Chery, and Songzhi [3] - The recent approval of L3 level conditional autonomous driving vehicles by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to create new market demand, providing development opportunities for the company [3] - The company aims to deepen cooperation with existing core clients, leveraging synchronous R&D and quality systems to enhance the value and market share of its automotive components [3] Group 3: Data Center Development - The company is focusing on the research and production of efficient liquid cooling heat exchange equipment for data centers [3] - The global data center market is expected to continue expanding due to the increasing maturity and application of technologies such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing [3] - The company plans to actively seize market opportunities by aligning its technological capabilities and production capacity with industry trends [3]
从停摆到回归:国产ARM大芯片,机会来了!
国芯网· 2026-01-09 09:50
国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业! 曾经因 80 亿注册资本轰动行业、又在 2024 年底陷入欠薪停摆风波的博瑞晶芯,近期似乎正悄然 回归。 有博瑞晶芯的前员工告诉我们,引进了新投资的博瑞晶芯已经给他们补上了之前拖欠的工 资。也有供应商透露,博瑞晶芯已经结清了此前的欠款。 天眼查信息显示,珠海新质生产力基金等机构已于近期正式完成对博瑞晶芯的入股,这也意 味着博瑞晶芯正式获得了珠海国资的战略支持。 过去几年,芯片行业经历了一波大起大落,有不少曾被寄予厚望的初创企业从惊艳亮相走向 了一蹶不振甚至倒闭,能实现 V 字回归的屈指可数。博瑞晶芯能成为少数突围的幸运儿吗? 这又是否代表着众多 ARM CPU 厂商乃至大芯片赛道正在迎来新转机? 芯片创业浪潮, ARM 玩家崛起 自 2014 年大基金出台,中国就兴起了一股芯片创业潮。尤其在 2019 年美国将华为加入黑 名单后,本土芯片创业潮双倍加速。从魏少军教授过去几年在 ICCAD 上发布的数据,我们可 以一窥国内的芯片热。 统计数据显示, 2019 年,全国共有 1780 家芯片设计企业,比 2018 年增长了 4.8% ;进 入 2020 年,中国 ...
润泽科技涨超15%,云计算ETF汇添富(159273)放量大涨近3%!大厂需求加速,字节AIDC和算力链有望迎订单爆发!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-09 09:47
Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% to surpass 4100 points, achieving a 16-day winning streak, with the computing power sector showing strong performance [1] - The cloud computing ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159273) saw a trading volume increase of 33%, closing up 2.69% with a total transaction amount exceeding 440 million yuan [1][5] - Major companies like ByteDance and Alibaba are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with ByteDance planning to invest approximately 160 billion yuan in 2026, while Alibaba aims to invest over 380 billion yuan in technology research and infrastructure over the next three years [3] Group 2 - The IDC industry is expected to experience an improvement in supply-demand dynamics due to increased capital expenditures from major companies and a cautious approach to new supply approvals [3] - The domestic large model development is leading globally, with China releasing 1509 large models, accounting for 40% of the global total, and several models ranking highly in various capabilities [8][9] - The emergence of intelligent agents is supported by advancements in model capabilities, efficiency, and reasoning abilities, paving the way for enhanced AI applications [6]
软件业务收入同比增长13.3%
Ren Min Ri Bao Hai Wai Ban· 2026-01-09 08:28
Core Insights - The software business revenue in China reached 1,397.77 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [2] - The total profit of the software industry amounted to 169.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [2] - Software exports were valued at 56.89 billion USD, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, maintaining positive growth for nine consecutive months [2] Revenue Breakdown - Software product revenue was 295.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, accounting for 21.1% of the total industry revenue [2] - Basic software product revenue reached 18.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [2] - Industrial software product revenue was 29.51 billion yuan, growing by 10.2% year-on-year [2] Information Technology Services - Revenue from information technology services was 961.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.6%, making up 68.8% of the total industry revenue [2] - Cloud computing and big data services generated 146.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, accounting for 15.3% of information technology service revenue [2] - Integrated circuit design revenue was 40.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [2] - E-commerce platform technology service revenue reached 129.44 billion yuan, growing by 12.5% year-on-year [2] Other Revenue Segments - Revenue from information security products and services was 20.01 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [2] - Revenue from embedded system software was 121.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [2]
宏观经济专题研究:十张图看大宗品开年狂欢
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-09 08:01
Group 1: Commodity Market Trends - The global commodity market has experienced a structural uptrend since late 2025, led by industrial and precious metals, while traditional cyclical products have shown lackluster performance[1] - LME copper prices surged from below $8,000/ton to over $13,000/ton, marking a cumulative increase of over 60%, despite the US manufacturing PMI remaining in a contraction zone of 48.2%-48.3%[2] - The divergence between commodity prices and manufacturing demand indicates a decoupling from traditional manufacturing cycles, driven by rising geopolitical uncertainties and trade protectionism[2][14] Group 2: Demand Dynamics and Economic Shifts - The current market is characterized by extreme differentiation among commodities, with indicators like the copper-oil ratio exceeding two standard deviations, reflecting a fundamental shift in global economic growth models[3][27] - The transition from a traditional growth model centered on real estate and infrastructure to a digital economy model focused on "computing power + electricity" is reshaping demand for commodities[3][31] - Major tech companies are expected to maintain over 20% capital expenditure growth in AI infrastructure, significantly impacting demand for conductive materials like copper and silver[31][33] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The commodity market is entering a new phase driven by "computing power + security," where geopolitical risks create a safety premium, enhancing the financial attributes of commodities[4][34] - Short-term risks include potential price corrections for certain commodities that have surged too quickly, possibly overshooting future demand expectations[4][37] - Ongoing volatility in overseas markets and declining economic growth rates pose additional risks to the commodity landscape[5][38]
宏观经济专题研究:张图看大宗品开年狂欢
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-09 07:35
Group 1: Market Trends - The global commodity market has entered a structural uptrend since late 2025, led by industrial and precious metals, while traditional cyclical products have shown lackluster performance[1] - LME copper prices surged from under $8,000/ton to over $13,000/ton, a cumulative increase of over 60%, despite the US manufacturing PMI remaining in a contraction zone of 48.2%-48.3%[2] - The divergence between commodity prices and manufacturing demand indicates a decoupling from traditional manufacturing cycles, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain security concerns[16] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The current market features extreme differentiation among commodities, with indicators like the copper-oil ratio exceeding two standard deviations, reflecting a fundamental shift in global economic growth models[3] - The transition from a traditional growth model centered on real estate and infrastructure to a digital economy model focused on "computing power + electricity" is creating new demand chains for commodities[3] - Major tech companies are expected to maintain over 20% capital expenditure growth in AI infrastructure, significantly impacting demand for conductive materials like copper and silver[31] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The commodity market is entering a new paradigm driven by "computing power + security," where geopolitical risks create a safety premium, enhancing the financial attributes of commodities[4] - Short-term risks include potential price corrections for certain commodities that have surged too quickly, possibly overextending future demand expectations[4] - Economic indicators show a decline in fixed asset investment at -2.6% year-on-year, while retail sales and exports have shown modest growth of 1.3% and 5.9% respectively[7]
以科技赋能投资者服务,这家基金公司荣获“2025卓越金融科技公司”奖
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-09 06:05
近年来,睿远基金借助科技力量,不断增强线上服务能力,并通过对睿远基金APP的持续完善,为投资者提供更为便捷贴心的服务。 据了解,睿远基金APP是由睿远基金推出的一站式投资服务平台,自2018年10月上线以来,每年都结合投资者的投资理财需求进行多次迭代升级,并积极 拥抱鸿蒙生态,持续优化投资者体验。 投资时间网、标点财经研究员 陈亭 为了探寻企业界、金融界破局引路的标杆力量,"见未来·2025第八届金禧奖年度评选"如期而至。自标点财经研究院联合《投资时报》、投资时间网于 2018年首次举办"见未来"系列论坛以来,至2025年,"见未来"系列活动及金禧奖年度评选已进入第八届。据了解,"金禧奖"由标点财经研究院等第三方研 究机构对数千家企业大数据展开分析、比较后,客观评选出各领域最具竞争力的企业和机构,形成候选综合排名榜单,再经媒体记者、研究员团队集体调 研,由评审组最终审核确定。 多年来,诸多优秀企业与金融机构在活动中获得了表彰和肯定,极大地提升了企业的品牌价值和市场影响力。 经过数轮激烈的竞争与细致的遴选,最终,睿远基金管理有限公司脱颖而出,斩获"2025卓越金融科技公司"殊荣。 基金公司如何为投资者提供更为多 ...
AI硬切软?低费率云计算50ETF(516630)涨超2.6%,易点天下涨停
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-09 05:52
Group 1 - The AI software sector is experiencing significant growth, with the China Securities Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index rising by 2.57% as of January 9, 2026, and the Cloud Computing 50 ETF increasing by 2.62% [1] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF has seen a net inflow of 31.02 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued an implementation opinion on "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing," aiming to promote deep integration of AI technology and manufacturing by 2027 [1] Group 2 - As of January 8, 2026, the Cloud Computing 50 ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.35% this year, indicating low drawdown risk [2] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF closely tracks the China Securities Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, which includes 50 companies involved in cloud computing and big data services [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 50.01% of the total, with notable companies including iFlytek, Kingsoft Office, and Zhongji Xuchuang [2]
中水三立IPO:业绩季节性波动风险加剧 “踩点”递表距对赌失败仅差1天
Xi Niu Cai Jing· 2026-01-09 03:58
| 项 | . | = | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 477 115 | | = = | 5 | | 代码 | 874589 | 简称 | 中水三式 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司全称 | 中水三立数据技术股份有限公司 | 受理日期 | 2025-12- | | 审核状态 | 已受理 | 更新日期 | 2025-12- | | 保荐机构 | 国元证券股份有限公司 | 保存代表人 | 丁翌,张昊 | | 会计师事务所 | 容诚会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙) | 签字会计师 | 黄敬臣,李增辉,屠 | | 律师事务所 | 安徽天禾律师事务所 | 签字律师 | 陈策,陈磊,张 | | 评估机构 | | 签字评估师 | | 来源:公告 近日,中水三立数据技术股份有限公司(以下简称"中水三立")上市申请获北交所受理,保荐机构为国元证券。该公司此次IPO拟募资2.00亿元,计划用于 数智化服务平台升级及产业化项目、研发中心建设项目、营销网络建设项目、补充流动资金。 公开资料显示,2015年11月,火花创投受让中水三立实控人李兵持有的5% ...