Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on India, primarily due to India's profitable dealings in Russian oil, which has caused significant concern among Indian businesses reliant on exports to the U.S. [2] - India faces limited options for retaliation against the U.S. tariffs, as previous attempts to impose counter-tariffs had minimal impact, and legal actions through the WTO would take years, potentially harming Indian enterprises in the meantime [4][6] - Brazil's President Lula has reached out to Modi to discuss trade and potential bilateral agreements, but Brazil's own economic challenges may limit the effectiveness of such discussions [6][7] Group 2 - Indian media has expressed frustration over the U.S. treating India differently compared to other countries in trade negotiations, highlighting India's significant service surplus with the U.S. and its reliance on U.S. market access for various sectors [9] - Indian scholars have noted that the U.S. appears to be less cautious in its dealings with India compared to other nations, suggesting that India needs to find a protective ally to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [11] - India has been adept at navigating multilateral trade relationships, but the imposition of tariffs presents a direct challenge that could strain its economic interests, particularly in maintaining energy imports from Russia while preserving access to U.S. markets [13] Group 3 - Indian companies are facing immediate decisions regarding export pricing, storage in the U.S., and potential relocation of orders to third countries with trade agreements, as the impact of tariffs is felt quickly across supply chains [15] - The situation illustrates the intersection of political and economic pressures, with India needing to balance its strategic autonomy in energy procurement against the economic costs imposed by U.S. tariffs [17] - The current discourse in India reflects a mix of advice on how to respond to U.S. actions, emphasizing the need for strategic negotiations and the importance of leveraging available resources to counteract tariff impacts [17]

Core Viewpoint - Honda's financial performance in the first quarter of FY2026 shows a significant decline in both operating profit and net profit, primarily due to U.S. tariffs on Japanese imports, alongside challenges in the Chinese market and the electric vehicle transition [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - Honda's operating profit fell by 49.6% to 244.17 billion yen, while net profit decreased by 50.2% to 196.67 billion yen in the first quarter [1]. - The company estimates a total loss of 450 billion yen for the fiscal year due to tariffs [1]. Market Challenges - The automotive industry is facing a complex global challenge, including the impact of U.S. tariffs, fluctuating yen exchange rates, and poor performance in the electric vehicle sector [2]. - Honda's sales in China dropped by 14.74% year-on-year in July, with cumulative sales for the first seven months also showing a double-digit decline [3]. Competitor Performance - Other major automakers, including Toyota and Nissan, also reported declines in profits, with Toyota's operating profit down 11% and Nissan experiencing its first quarterly loss in five years [5][6]. - BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Ford reported significant drops in net profits, with Ford's decline exceeding 80% [6]. Importance of the Chinese Market - The Chinese market is increasingly critical for multinational automakers, with many facing intense competition and declining sales [7]. - Honda and Nissan both saw substantial sales declines in China, with Honda's sales down nearly 40% in the first half of the year [7]. Strategic Adjustments - Honda plans to continue adjusting production capacity in China, although no concrete discussions have taken place yet [2]. - Executives from Honda and other automakers acknowledge the need for significant internal reforms and a shift in strategy to better align with local market demands [4][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market may experience a slight increase in both supply and demand, with costs being supported and supply expectations improving due to policy impacts. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is also suggested to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,622.50 US dollars/ton, up 36.50 US dollars [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum increased by 4,725 hands to 10,977 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.93, down 0.09 [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum price was 20,610 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export quantity was 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54.20 million tons, up 5.20 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of aluminum alloy was 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The automobile production was 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 7.80%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.29%, down 0.39% [2]. - The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.21, up 0.02; the implied volatility slightly increased [2]. Industry News - China and the US issued a joint statement on economic and trade talks, suspending reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [2]. - The US 7 - month CPI was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected; the core CPI was up 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected [2]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by more than 90% in the September meeting [2].

Hot News - From 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures stipulated in the "Announcement of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on Imposing Additional Tariffs on Imported Goods Originating from the United States" (Tariff Commission Announcement No. 4 in 2025) will be adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will continue to be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [1] - The People's Government of Guangzhou and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan on Implementing the Opinions on Financial Support for the In - depth All - around Cooperation of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao in Nansha, Guangzhou Facing the World", proposing to support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to actively study power futures and strive for the support of the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments to explore the timely launch of power futures [1] - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans". The annual interest subsidy ratio is 1 percentage point, with a maximum of 50% of the loan contract interest rate. The central and provincial finances will bear 90% and 10% of the interest subsidy funds respectively [1] - On August 12, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian was asked by a AFP reporter about US President Trump's post on the "Truth Social" platform, expressing the hope that China would triple its soybean orders as a way to significantly reduce the US - China trade deficit. Lin Jian said that specific issues should be referred to the competent authorities, and China's stance on US - China economic and trade issues is consistent and clear [1] - Federal Reserve's Barkin said that the uncertainty about the direction of the US economic development is decreasing, but it is still unclear whether the central bank should focus more on controlling inflation or supporting the job market [2] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are coking coal, rapeseed meal, crude oil, soda ash, and fuel oil [3] Night - Session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.94% increase, precious metals 26.15%, oilseeds and fats 12.70%, non - ferrous metals 21.79%, soft commodities 2.41%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 15.48%, energy 3.36%, chemicals 11.22%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.80% [3] Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel and minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 2.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.37%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 0.61%, a monthly increase of 1.12%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.55%; the CSI 300 had a daily increase of 0.52%, a monthly increase of 1.67%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.31%; the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.41%, a monthly increase of 3.08%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.09%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 1.13%, a monthly increase of 1.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.59%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.25%, a monthly increase of 0.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 24.48%; the German DAX had a daily decrease of 0.23%, a monthly decrease of 0.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.67%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 2.15%, a monthly increase of 4.01%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.08%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.20%, a monthly increase of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.93% [5] Fixed - Income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.04%, a monthly decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.46%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.00%, a monthly decrease of 0.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.77%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.02%, a monthly decrease of 0.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.62% [5] Commodities - The CRB Commodity Index had a daily decrease of 0.11%, a monthly decrease of 1.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.46%; WTI crude oil had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 7.56%, and a year - to - date decrease of 11.03%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 1.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.57%; LME copper had no daily change, a monthly increase of 1.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.76%; the Wind Commodity Index had a daily decrease of 0.87%, a monthly decrease of 0.47%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.07% [5] Others - The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.44%, a monthly decrease of 1.98%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.60%; the CBOE Volatility Index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 2.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.34% [5] Main Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6]

Group 1: Market Reactions - LME copper prices increased by 0.30% to $9,761 per ton, driven by the consensus between China and the U.S. to continue the suspension of 24% tariffs [1] - The SHFE September copper contract remained stable at ¥78,940 per ton, reflecting positive sentiment in the commodity market due to the tariff suspension agreement [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Expectations of increased copper supply are suppressing price gains, with Codelco reporting a 17% year-on-year increase in copper production to 120,200 tons in June [3] - The approval for the resumption of operations in unaffected areas of the El Teniente copper mine alleviated supply concerns, impacting copper prices [3] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME aluminum prices rose by 0.39% to $2,598 per ton, while nickel prices fell by 0.10% to $15,335 per ton [4] - In Shanghai, aluminum prices remained stable at ¥20,680 per ton, with nickel prices increasing by 0.79% to ¥122,590 per ton [4]

Core Points - The joint statement from the China-U.S. Stockholm economic talks announced a 90-day suspension of a 24% tariff on goods from both countries starting August 12, 2025 [1][2] - The agreement is based on previous discussions held during the Geneva and London talks in 2025, indicating ongoing negotiations between the two nations [1][2] Summary by Sections U.S. Actions - The U.S. will modify the implementation of the 24% tariff on Chinese goods, including those from Hong Kong and Macau, starting August 12, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff on these goods [1] - The U.S. actions are part of the commitments made under the Geneva joint statement [1] China Actions - China will also suspend the 24% tariff on U.S. goods for 90 days starting August 12, 2025, while keeping a 10% tariff in place [2] - Additionally, China will take necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. as agreed in the Geneva joint statement [2] Meeting Details - The Stockholm economic talks were held under the framework established by the Geneva joint statement, with representatives from both countries participating [2] - The Chinese delegation was led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, while the U.S. delegation included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer [2]

Group 1 - The United States will continue to modify the implementation of the tariff increase on Chinese goods, including those from Hong Kong and Macau, as per Executive Order No. 14257, by suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [1] - China will also modify the implementation of the tariff increase on U.S. goods as per Announcement No. 4 of 2025, by suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [1] - Additionally, China will take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. as agreed in the Geneva Joint Statement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the United States to impose a 15% tariff on certain Jordanian exports, which previously enjoyed zero tariffs, significantly impacts the garment industry, particularly knitwear. The food industry, with its local resource base and growth potential, should be prioritized for future development [1] Group 1: Impact on Industries - The garment industry is the most affected sector due to the new 15% tariff on exports to the U.S. [1] - The food industry is highlighted as having local resource advantages and growth potential, suggesting a shift in focus for future investments [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Jordan primarily imports cars, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals from the U.S. [1] - Future U.S.-Jordan trade negotiations are expected to cover various aspects of imports, which may lead to a decrease in the prices of American cars in the Jordanian market [1]

Market Overview - The US dollar index fell this week, reaching a 10-day low, primarily due to Trump's nomination of a dovish Federal Reserve governor, which increased market expectations for future rate cuts [1] - Spot gold recorded its second consecutive week of gains, driven by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and new tariffs on 1 kg gold bars, pushing prices to a historical high of $3534 per ounce [1] - The international oil price is expected to decline for seven consecutive days as OPEC+ significantly increased production, alleviating concerns over potential supply shortages due to sanctions on Russian oil [1] Investment Bank Insights - Citigroup raised its short-term gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, adjusting the three-month price range from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 [4] - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to begin a series of rate cuts starting in September, with potential cuts of 25 basis points, and possibly 50 basis points if unemployment rises further [4] - Morgan Stanley has moved its forecast for the first rate cut from December to September, now anticipating three cuts this year [4] Trade Developments - The US government implemented "reciprocal tariffs" on various trade partners, with Japan and India facing significant tariff adjustments [5][6] - The US has imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss gold exports, which could significantly impact the market dynamics for gold trading [7] Geopolitical Events - A meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin is anticipated, marking a significant moment in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [8] - Trump's nomination of a dovish Federal Reserve governor is expected to reinforce market expectations for rate cuts [9] Corporate Developments - Apple announced a $100 billion investment in the US, which includes a new manufacturing project, following Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on imported semiconductor chips [12] - The Federal Reserve's potential policy changes could open new funding sources for alternative asset managers, benefiting firms like Blackstone and KKR [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced significant gains on July 23, driven by a new trade agreement between the United States and Japan, which reduced tariffs on Japanese imports to the U.S. [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed up by 3.51%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index rose by 3.18% [1] - The Nikkei index increased by 1396.40 points, closing at 41171.32 points, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 90.19 points, closing at 2926.38 points [1] Sector Performance - All 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with transportation machinery, banking, and metal products leading the increases [1]