证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 宏观情绪推动叠加供应短缺，铜价飙升至 3 月份 以来最高水平 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘局势缓和叠加中美签署协议，金价本 周回调 本周 COMEX 黄金下跌 2.90%至 3,286.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 0.60%至 36.17 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金下跌 1.56%至 766.40 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 1.48%至 8,792.00 元/千 克。 周四，美国 5 月耐用品订单月率 16.4%，预期 8.5%，前 值由-6.30%修正为-6.6%。美国第一季度实际 GDP 年化季率终 值 -0.5%，预期-0.20%，前值-0.20%。美国第一季度实际个人 消费支出季率终值 0.5%，预期 1.2%，前值 1.2%。美国第一季 度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 3.5%，预期 3.4%，前值 3.40%。美国至 6 月 21 日当周初请失业金人数 23.6 万人，预 期 24 ...

Group 1 - The essence of currency is based on commodities and transactions, with credit currencies like paper money requiring actual transaction support to maintain value [1] - The dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency is primarily due to its pricing of commodities like oil and the US's control over international currency exchange systems [1] - The historical context of the gold standard established by Isaac Newton links currency value closely to gold, which has evolved over time, leading to the current challenges faced by the dollar [3] Group 2 - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries like Germany, France, and Poland repatriating gold, reflecting deep concerns about the dollar system [5] - Japan and other US allies are increasing investments in Chinese bonds, indicating a challenge to the dollar's global status [5] - The US's excessive money printing to manage debt has led to a decline in the dollar's purchasing power and its global currency status [7] Group 3 - A proposed bill in the US aims to restore the gold standard, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy to curb dollar inflation [7] - The discussion around de-dollarization has become a significant international economic issue, with countries openly seeking alternatives to the dollar [8] - The rising US debt and inflation are prompting a reevaluation of the dollar's global currency status, with some economies considering pegging their currencies to gold or decentralized digital currencies [13] Group 4 - Approximately 40 representative countries, including China, India, Japan, and Russia, are advancing the de-dollarization process through various means [15] - The application of blockchain technology is accelerating the de-dollarization process, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [15] - The former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, suggests that replacing the dollar with a globally recognized digital currency could address significant issues faced by non-US decision-makers [15] Group 5 - Investment figures like Jim Rogers warn that the decline of the dollar is an inevitable historical process, while reports indicate that the Federal Reserve's actions threaten the dollar's reserve currency status [17]

据智通财经报道，中国4月又减持82亿美债。多年来，中国持有美债规模起起落落。在2013年，咱们持 有美债规模一度冲到约1.3万亿美元的峰值。此后，形势有了变化，开始慢慢减持。到了2025年3月，减 持189亿美元，持仓降到7654亿美元，位置从美国第二大债主，变成了第三，被英国以7793亿美元持仓 量超过。紧接着4月，又减持82亿美元，持仓量下滑至7572亿美元，创下近16年的新低。从2022年4月开 始，中国的美债持仓就一直低于1万亿美元，整体减持趋势相当明显。2022年、2023年、2024年，分别 减持1732亿美元、508亿美元、573亿美元美国国债。 美元（资料图） 美国国债规模，那是一路狂飙。截至2025年4月，已经突破36万亿美元大关。算下来，美国人均负债差 不多11万美元。美国政府每年在国债利息上的支出，都超过了军费预算。债务占国内生产总值（GDP） 的比例，达到122.30%左右，而且预计到2028年，这个比例会涨到150%。这么庞大的债务规模，给美国 经济带来了沉重负担，就像背着一座大山在走路。 美国财政赤字问题严重，每年支出远超收入。债务上限危机也是反复上演，国会为了提高债务上限吵得 不 ...

汤继成认为，由于市场担忧美国政策的可信度及财政可持续性，美国"例外主义"正受到威胁，导致美国 国债和美元遭抛售。这一趋势预示着美国GDP增长将放缓，经济衰退风险升温，投资者开始寻求全球非 美元资产的投资机会。相关资金流向的转变已体现在欧洲股票，以及作为法定货币贬值对冲工具的黄金 的强劲表现中。 "去美元化"趋势对亚洲经济尤为有利，区内货币升值亦为央行提供宽松政策的空间。此外，对美国债务 可持续性的担忧升温，促使部分资金回流亚洲。亚洲经济体目前持有约8.6万亿美元的美国股票及固定 收益资产，若出现部分资金回流，将显著支持区内货币，并提升区内股票及固定收益市场表现。 【导读】安联投资：看好中国、印度及澳大利亚经济及股市，中国国债有望成为亚洲新一代"避风港"资 产 6月26日，安联投资全球固定收益副主管及亚洲固定收益首席投资总监曾铮、安联投资亚太区股票首席 投资总监薛永辉和安联投资亚太区高级经济师汤继成一同接受了记者的采访。 安联投资认为，下半年，美国关税政策、消费者信心、通胀及经济衰退风险等关键因素将主导经济格 局，而中东的军事行动亦可能进一步影响市场情绪。 安联投资预计，在当前充满不确定性的宏观经济环境中，亚洲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment is optimistic about the economic and stock market prospects of China, India, and Australia, viewing Chinese government bonds as a potential new "safe haven" asset in Asia [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Key factors such as U.S. tariff policies, consumer confidence, inflation, and recession risks will dominate the economic landscape in the second half of the year [2]. - Allianz Investment anticipates that the uncertain macroeconomic environment will make Asian fixed income and equity markets attractive for global investors due to favorable demographics, robust fundamentals, and accelerated regional integration [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - The trend of "de-dollarization" is beneficial for Asian economies, with a potential return of funds to Asia supporting local currencies and enhancing the performance of regional stocks and fixed income markets [4]. - Allianz Investment is particularly optimistic about Asian economies driven by domestic demand, with room for policy rate cuts and less exposure to specific political and economic concerns, especially in China, India, and Australia [4]. Group 3: Stock Market Insights - Asian stocks have performed well year-to-date, with strong valuation attractiveness and growth potential in major markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea [8]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a commitment to boosting domestic demand and strengthening trade ties, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [8]. - China's service industry is emerging as a global leader, with Chinese intellectual properties in AI, gaming, film, and animation gaining international traction, showcasing the global competitiveness of Chinese enterprises [8].

智通财经APP获悉，中金策略分析师刘刚在自媒体平台表示，美股近期再创历史新高，纳指跑赢全球多数指数。该行曾在4月8日提示不建议继续做空。市场 对"股债汇三杀"的担忧更多源于短期流动性冲击和长期外推预期，而非基本面恶化。2025年下半年展望中，中金认为"去美元化"共识存在预期高度趋同的问 题，且难以提供短期操作指引。美元小幅下跌对美股有利，市场误区在于将"去美元化"与美元走弱直接关联。不过，三季度仍需关注关税谈判、债务上限等 潜在扰动因素。 中金主要观点如下： 该行在4月8日底部附近提示，纳指估值跌到20倍估值逐步具备吸引力，至少也不应该再做空。在"股债汇三杀"担忧最严重的时候提示，这种担忧更多是短期 流动性冲击和基于外推预期的一些长期担心所致。 在2025下半年展望中，该行并不特别认同"去美元"的共识，提示这一预期高度趋同、而且主要是基于无法证实和证伪的宏大叙事。宏大叙事的最大问题就是 无法提供短期操作指引，究竟是5年后兑现、还是今年内兑现，究竟是跌50%、还是跌5%，都难以回答。 美元的下跌并非都是"去美元化"的体现，而且小幅的下跌对美股反而是有利的，市场的误区在于直接将去美元化和美元弱画等号，把美元弱和美 ...

作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 中东局势缓和等因素，令近期震荡走低的金价再度下挫。 当地时间6月27日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.85%报3286美元/盎司，盘中 最低触及3266美元/盎司，刷新近一个月低位。 2025.06. 28 本文字数：1148，阅读时长大约2分钟 至此，国际金价已经连跌两周，近两个交易周累计下跌约5%，再度失守3300美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院宏观首席分析师徐颖分析称，上半年美国经济在关税政策的扰动下波动增加，黄金 在经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段。中长期看，美国对外关税政策的反复、地缘政治博弈的增 加，美联储降息临近、缩表接近尾声，黄金仍然受益于不确定性以及流动性的释放。 技术面看，金价三次冲刺3400美元～3500美元的区间高点没能成功。徐颖认为，突破当前的震荡区 间还需等待更多触发因素，下一波上涨行情的启动还需等待，预计后期走势先抑后扬。 海外多重风险因素接连缓和，对金价形成短线的利空因素。永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，从 中长期来看黄金价格驱动逻辑不变，即美元、美债信用走弱趋势下，金价获得支撑。随着美国关税不 确定性和赤字率上行，全球"去美 ...

今年上半年，关税风险推动金价迭创新高，伦敦金一度站上3500美元/盎司，年内最高涨幅一度达到 35%。 "4月份开始，黄金价格因避险资金集中配置而出现井喷式增长，但随后出现了调整，这主要是因为市场 对于历史高点的对标和局部拥挤度过高所致。"博时黄金ETF基金经理王祥分析称，黄金市场的波动性 上涨主要是由于逆全球化、美元信用减弱以及美国关税战等因素共同作用的结果。 中东局势缓和等因素，令近期震荡走低的金价再度下挫。 当地时间6月27日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.85%报3286美元/盎司，盘中最低触 及3266美元/盎司，刷新近一个月低位。 至此，国际金价已经连跌两周，近两个交易周累计下跌约5%，再度失守3300美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院宏观首席分析师徐颖分析称，上半年美国经济在关税政策的扰动下波动增加，黄金在 经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段。中长期看，美国对外关税政策的反复、地缘政治博弈的增加， 美联储降息临近、缩表接近尾声，黄金仍然受益于不确定性以及流动性的释放。 技术面看，金价三次冲刺3400美元～3500美元的区间高点没能成功。徐颖认为，突破当前的震荡区间还 需等待更多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the rise of the Chinese yuan, highlighting the geopolitical and financial implications of this shift [1][3]. Group 1: US Dollar's Challenges - The US is facing a debt crisis, exacerbated by failed plans such as the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" which aimed to convert US debt into long-term, interest-free bonds [3][5]. - The "Pennsylvania Plan," led by US Treasury Secretary Yellen, aims to stimulate domestic demand for US debt through financial repression and the promotion of dollar stablecoins [5][7]. - This strategy represents a high-stakes gamble, relying on domestic investors to absorb large amounts of US debt and the global reliance on the dollar [5][7]. Group 2: Risks and Consequences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, as the Treasury's control over monetary policy could lead to corruption and mismanagement [7]. - Artificially lowering interest rates to manage debt could undermine the dollar's credibility, potentially leading to severe inflation [7][9]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with central banks around the world increasing their gold reserves as a sign of diminishing confidence in the dollar [9][11]. Group 3: Rise of the Chinese Yuan - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as a response to the instability of the dollar system, prompting global capital to seek new safe havens [11]. - However, the yuan's rise presents challenges, as China's financial system must demonstrate resilience and depth to handle this influx of wealth [11]. - The future of the yuan as a reliable "hard currency" depends on China's ability to reform its financial markets, advance internationalization, and improve its exchange rate mechanism [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) and safe-haven demand, while being influenced by variables such as the US dollar exchange rate, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions [2] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The market is in a unique phase where high real interest rates suppress gold prices, but safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends support them [2] - The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the timing of potential rate cuts remains contentious [4] - US CPI remains stubbornly above 3%, indicating a slowdown in the disinflation process [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East [4] - In 2023, global central banks net purchased 1,037 tons of gold, marking the second-highest level in history [4] Group 2: Historical Analysis and Patterns - Analyzing the past 20 years of gold price movements reveals key patterns regarding pullback magnitudes and durations [5] - In non-extreme crises, a 20%-25% pullback often indicates a mid-term bottom [7] - Rapid declines (over 15% in 1-3 months) tend to have a high probability of subsequent rebounds [7] - Gold typically begins to form a bottom 6-12 months before a shift in Federal Reserve policy [7] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The long-term upward trend line since 2020 is positioned between $1,850 and $1,900 per ounce [10] - The 200-week moving average support has risen to $1,800, which has never been effectively breached in the past decade [10] - Key Fibonacci retracement levels are at $1,880 (38.2% retracement) and $1,750 (50% retracement in extreme risk scenarios) [10] - Institutional accumulation costs are concentrated in the $1,900 to $1,950 range [10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Aggressive investors may consider starting to accumulate gold if prices drop to $1,900 (approximately 5% decline) [11] - Conservative investors should wait for a breach below $1,850 (10% decline) before entering [11] - Technical signals for entry include a daily RSI below 30 and a close above the 20-day moving average [11] - The global cash cost of gold mining is around $1,300, providing a significant margin of safety below $1,600 [11] Group 5: Tactical and Strategic Opportunities - Tactical opportunities may arise if gold prices fall below $1,900, while a panic sell-off to $1,750 could represent a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity [16] - The ultimate signal for a major upward trend in gold is typically seen within six months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [16] - High-profile institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater suggest that gold could maintain a range of $1,900 to $2,100 under soft landing scenarios, and potentially rise to $2,500 during a recession [16]