东莞证券近日发布电力设备及新能源行业双周报：根据iFinD，截至2025年5月8日，电 力设备板块PE(TTM)为24.50倍。子板块方面，电机Ⅱ板块PE(TTM)为51.04倍，其他电源设 备Ⅱ板块PE(TTM)为40.69倍，光伏设备板块PE(TTM)为17.54倍，风电设备板块PE(TTM)为 30.52倍，电池板块PE(TTM)为23.79倍，电网设备板块PE(TTM)为24.11倍。 以下为研究报告摘要： 截至2025年5月8日，近两周涨幅前十的个股里，中超控股、华民股份和振江股份三家公 司涨幅在申万电力设备板块中排名前三，涨幅分别达 38.95%、29.66%和28.37%。截至2025年5月8日，近两周跌幅前十的个股里，华西能 源、沐邦高科和合纵科技表现较弱，分别跌28.74%、28.38%和26.91%。 估值方面：根据iFinD，截至2025年5月8日，电力设备板块PE(TTM)为24.50倍。子板块 方面，电机Ⅱ板块PE(TTM)为51.04倍，其他电源设备Ⅱ板块PE(TTM)为40.69倍，光伏设备 板块PE(TTM)为17.54倍，风电设备板块PE(TTM)为30.52倍，电池板块PE ...

宏观日报 | 2025-05-09 关注基建行业相关投资项目开展 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注运输、基建投资项目推进。 1）国家发改委副主任郑备在新闻发布会上表示，民企促进法全文贯 穿了平等对待、公平竞争、同等保护、共同发展的原则，国家发展改革委将重点从破壁垒、拓空间、优服务等方 面推动落实。今年还将在交通运输、能源、水利、新型基础设施、城市基础设施等重点领域，推出总投资规模约3 万亿元的优质项目。 服务行业：云服务业务稳步增长。 1）工信部数据显示，今年一季度，我国软件和信息技术服务业稳健增长，完 成业务收入31479亿元，同比增长10.6%。分领域看，信息技术服务收入保持两位数增长，达到20820亿元，占全行 业收入近七成。其中，云计算、大数据服务共实现收入3540亿元，同比增长11.1%。一季度软件业务利润总额也保 持了两位数增长，达到11.6%。一季度软件业务出口增速由负转正，出口达到131亿美元，同比增长2.4%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）能源：国际油价受关税影响持续回落。2）有色：锌 ...

Group 1 - Heavy machinery stocks have seen a general increase, with notable gains in companies such as Sany International (up 0.17% to HKD 5.77) and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (up 1.38% to HKD 19.1) [1] - In Q1 2025, the domestic sales of excavators reached 36,562 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.3%, while total excavator sales from major manufacturers amounted to 61,372 units, up 22.8% year-on-year [1] - The average operating rate of construction machinery nationwide was reported at 44.67%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.62%, with 12 provinces exceeding an average operating rate of 50% [1] Group 2 - The acceleration of major engineering projects across various regions is expected to enhance infrastructure investment in Q2, contributing positively to economic stability and growth [2] - Analysts from Huachuang Securities express optimism regarding domestic policy efforts to boost internal demand, suggesting that the engineering machinery sector is likely to benefit significantly [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the construction and decoration sector [5][4] Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing pressure on revenue and profits, with major listed companies achieving operating revenue of 8.18 trillion yuan in 2024, down 3.70% year-on-year, and a net profit of 168.4 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, operating revenue was 1.84 trillion yuan, down 6.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 44.5 billion yuan, down 8.78% year-on-year [3][4] - The industry’s gross margin remained relatively stable, while net profit margin declined. The gross margin for 2024 was 10.9%, unchanged from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 2.06%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 9.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 2.42%, down 0.07 percentage points [12][3] - Operating cash flow has deteriorated, with a net cash flow of 106.8 billion yuan in 2024, down 62 billion yuan year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the net cash flow was -421.1 billion yuan, an increase in outflow of 10.9 billion yuan year-on-year [4][18] - The industry’s return on equity (ROE) decreased, with an overall ROE of 4.93% in 2024, down 1.16 percentage points year-on-year, and 1.29% in Q1 2025, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [22][4] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Overview of Listed Companies - The construction industry faced revenue and profit pressures in 2024, with significant declines in both metrics due to local government debt pressures and a downturn in the real estate sector [11][4] 2. ROE Analysis - The industry ROE declined, with a notable drop in central state-owned enterprises, while private enterprises showed some improvement [22][4] 3. Growth Analysis - Revenue growth slowed, with a decline in prepayments for central state-owned enterprises indicating a challenging investment environment [11][4] 4. Cash Flow Analysis - The industry experienced weakened operating cash flow, with significant outflows in Q1 2025, necessitating attention to future debt resolution and fiscal funding [18][4] 5. Market Perception - The report suggests that the market underestimates the investment opportunities in the construction and real estate sectors, emphasizing the potential for renovation and infrastructure projects [6][4]

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨四川路桥（600039.SH） [Table_Title] 收入稳健增长，回购彰显信心 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025 年一季度实现营业收入 229.86 亿元，同比增长 3.98%；归属净利润 17.74 亿元，同 比增长 0.99%；扣非后归属净利润 17.76 亿元，同比增长 2.05%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 [Table_Title2] 收入稳健增长，回购彰显信心 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 四川路桥（600039.SH） cjzqdt11111 公司 2025 年一季度实现营业收入 229.86 亿元，同比增长 3.98%；归属净利润 17.74 亿元， 同比增长 0.99%；扣非后归属净利润 17.76 亿元，同比增长 2.05%。 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-0 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Investment - Since April, domestic macro policies have accelerated implementation to address external uncertainties, with local governments issuing 10,665 billion yuan in new special bonds, achieving 24.2% of this year's target, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The 2025 government work report sets macro policy goals including a new special bond issuance of 44,000 billion yuan, an increase of 5,000 billion yuan from last year, and a fiscal deficit rate raised to 4%, with a deficit scale increase of 16,000 billion yuan from last year [1] - Major economic indicators show signs of stabilization and recovery, with fixed asset investment reaching 103,174 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and private fixed asset investment growing by 0.4% [1] Group 2: Steel Demand and Supply Dynamics - Current weekly apparent demand for rebar has recovered to 2.738 million tons, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline, supported by increased infrastructure investment and a gradual reduction in real estate investment decline [2] - Steel mills are experiencing improved operating conditions, with short-process electric arc furnace utilization rates rising to 56.3%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Rebar weekly production has increased to 2.292 million tons, up by 113,000 tons year-on-year, indicating high production levels during the traditional peak season in May and June, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Group 3: Inventory and Price Outlook - Rebar total inventory has decreased to 7.33 million tons, down by 860,000 tons from the end of March and 2.15 million tons year-on-year, indicating a low inventory level historically [3] - Despite some downward pressure on rebar demand, expectations of reduced crude steel production and relatively low price valuations suggest a potential for a phase of price rebound after a bottoming out [3]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of major infrastructure projects across various regions in China is expected to positively impact economic growth in the second quarter, supported by increased funding and investment from state-owned enterprises [1][2][3]. Group 1: Infrastructure Investment - The National Energy Group has completed an investment of 35.95 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in wind power investment [1]. - Major projects in Guangdong, such as the Bai'e Tan project and housing projects, are progressing rapidly, with a planned investment of 1 trillion yuan for 1,500 key projects by 2025 [2]. - In Anhui, over 1,300 major projects have been launched this year, with a total investment exceeding 800 billion yuan, more than half of which are in emerging industries [3]. Group 2: Funding and Policy Support - The issuance of long-term special bonds, with a planned 1.3 trillion yuan for this year, is aimed at supporting "two heavy" projects, contributing to the acceleration of infrastructure investment [3][4]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 5.8% year-on-year increase in infrastructure investment in the first quarter, contributing 1.3 percentage points to overall investment growth [4]. - Experts emphasize the importance of optimizing spending structures and increasing expenditure intensity to enhance the effectiveness of funding and stimulate further social investment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable revenue growth in Q1 2025, but faced a decline in net profit and gross margin, indicating potential challenges ahead in maintaining profitability and managing costs [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 142.736 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.636 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 10.8%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting pressure on profitability [1] - The company maintained stable expense control, with selling, administrative, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.2%, 3.1%, 2.3%, and 1.6% respectively, showing minimal year-on-year changes [1] Cash Flow and Investment - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 was -40.519 billion yuan, an increase in outflow by 1.516 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a slight deterioration in cash flow management [2] - Cash outflow for the acquisition of fixed and intangible long-term assets was 10.856 billion yuan, down 5.848 billion yuan year-on-year, suggesting a slowdown in capital expenditure under strengthened investment control [2] - As of the end of Q1, the company had interest-bearing debt of 538.3 billion yuan, an increase of 59.9 billion yuan year-on-year, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.6%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Order Intake and Market Performance - New contract signing in Q1 2025 totaled 299.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%, with notable declines in several business segments [3] - The energy and water resources sectors showed strong performance, with new contracts in hydropower and wind power increasing by 20.2% and 67.3% respectively [3] - Domestic new contracts decreased by 15.4%, while international contracts increased by 20.9%, indicating a shift towards more opportunities abroad [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to benefit from increased domestic investment in water conservancy and hydropower infrastructure, as well as continued expansion in renewable energy operations [3] - Revised profit forecasts for 2025-2026 are 12.5 billion yuan and 13.2 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 14.2 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the potential growth from its renewable energy investment and operational business [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Railway (601390) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that revenue and profit continue to be under pressure, but overseas new contracts remain strong [7] - The macroeconomic environment is facing downward pressure, but there are expectations for increased fiscal support and improved financing conditions, which may benefit infrastructure investment [7] - The company is expected to see a recovery in valuation due to its status as a leading state-owned enterprise in infrastructure [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 249.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [7] - The revenue breakdown by business for Q1 shows infrastructure construction at 216.8 billion yuan (-8.0% YoY), design consulting at 4.7 billion yuan (-2.2% YoY), equipment manufacturing at 6.2 billion yuan (-5.8% YoY), real estate development at 6.7 billion yuan (+59.5% YoY), and other businesses at 14.9 billion yuan (+3.2% YoY) [7] - The overall gross margin remained stable at 8.5%, with slight declines in traditional business margins offset by higher margins in design consulting and real estate [7] Order and Contract Summary - The company signed new contracts worth 560.1 billion yuan in Q1, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, with significant contributions from overseas contracts, which increased by 33.4% [7] - As of the end of Q1, the company had a backlog of orders amounting to 7,234.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.0% year-on-year [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2026 is 28.0 billion yuan and 28.5 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 29.1 billion yuan [7] - The report emphasizes that the company’s valuation remains at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company continues to face pressure on revenue and profit, with a notable decline in domestic business, while overseas new contracts remain strong [7] - The report highlights that the company achieved a total revenue of 249.283 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates that fiscal policy support and improvements in financing will gradually manifest in investment and physical volume, with expectations for increased infrastructure investment and policy support in key regions [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 249.283 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin remained stable at 8.5%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points [7] - The company’s financial expense ratio increased to 4.9%, primarily due to a rise in financial expenses [7] Business Segments - Revenue from various business segments in Q1 included: infrastructure construction (216.8 billion yuan, -8.0% YoY), design consulting (4.7 billion yuan, -2.2% YoY), equipment manufacturing (6.2 billion yuan, -5.8% YoY), real estate development (6.7 billion yuan, +59.5% YoY), and other businesses (14.9 billion yuan, +3.2% YoY) [7] - The report indicates that traditional infrastructure business is under pressure, but the share of higher-margin design consulting and real estate development has increased [7] Order Book and Future Outlook - The company signed new contracts worth 560.1 billion yuan in Q1, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, with significant contributions from overseas contracts [7] - The backlog of orders stood at 7,234.1 billion yuan at the end of Q1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.0% [7] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2026 to be 28.0 billion yuan and 28.5 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 29.1 billion yuan [7]