Group 1: Dollar Index - The possibility of Trump firing Powell has decreased, alleviating pressure on the dollar [7] - The U.S. Treasury's TGA financing is accelerating, leading to tightening liquidity which may support the dollar [9] - The dollar index has potential for further rebound, with a first target around 101 [12] Group 2: Euro - The euro is experiencing weakness due to a divergence in economic fundamentals between the U.S. and the Eurozone [19][21] - A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has temporarily avoided a large-scale trade dispute, but the 15% tariff still poses risks [21] - The euro's effective exchange rate has reached a level that could negatively impact Eurozone export growth [21][23] Group 3: Pound Sterling - The UK economic surprise index has entered a downward cycle, increasing rate cut expectations and pressuring the pound against the euro [33] - The UK public sector net borrowing in June was £20.7 billion, exceeding expectations [37] - The Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts due to conflicting economic signals [38] Group 4: Japanese Yen - The yen has depreciated significantly, driven by a reduction in long positions [47] - Expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased following a trade agreement with the U.S. [47] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the yen's depreciation expected to continue until a rate hike is confirmed [47]

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, reached on July 27, aims to address tariffs, energy procurement, and investment, temporarily avoiding a potential high-intensity tariff conflict, but raises concerns about its sustainability and impact on European competitiveness [1][2][3]. Tariff and Investment Summary - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, replacing a previously threatened 30% punitive tariff, while the EU commits to investing $600 billion in the U.S. and purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over three years [2]. - The agreement includes zero tariffs on strategic materials like aircraft parts and key chemicals, but maintains existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, with unresolved issues regarding spirits [2]. European Internal Reactions - There is significant dissent within Europe regarding the agreement, with various leaders expressing concerns about its fairness and long-term implications for European economic strength [3]. - French Prime Minister Béru criticized the deal as a capitulation to the U.S., while German Chancellor Merz acknowledged the negative impact on Germany's economy [3]. Economic Implications - The 15% tariff is expected to weaken the competitiveness of EU exports in the U.S., particularly affecting key industries such as automotive and cosmetics, with potential long-term economic costs for Europe [4]. - A report from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy predicts a 0.13 percentage point loss in Germany's economic growth due to the agreement [4]. Uncertainties and Risks - The agreement contains ambiguities, particularly regarding the steel and aluminum tariffs, and lacks clarity on specific product exemptions, which could lead to future disputes [5]. - The investment commitments from the EU to the U.S. lack detailed terms, raising concerns about potential imbalances and the risk of the U.S. prioritizing its own interests [5]. Internal Discrepancies - The differing interests among EU member states and the lack of supportive policies for the agreement's implementation may create significant obstacles to its approval and execution within the EU [6]. Conclusion - The trade agreement reflects a compromise by Europe under pressure, aiming to stabilize market expectations in the short term, but it risks undermining European autonomy in trade, energy, and investment in the long run [7].

针对特朗普提及的韩国将向美国开放农产品市场，韩国总统办公室政策室长金容范在7月31日召开的记 者会上指出，美方确实强烈要求韩方开放农畜产品市场，但考虑到粮食安全的重要性和农业敏感性，双 方就韩方不再进一步开放大米和牛肉市场达成一致。 韩国国内舆论认为，韩方在这一协议作出过多让步，将蒙受不小损失。《韩民族日报》援引专家分析指 出，此次韩美达成协议后，虽然美国对韩关税水平与日本、欧盟相当，但对于与美国签订自由贸易协定 的韩国来说，这一贸易协议仍令韩国受损。韩国大邱大学经济金融系教授金良姬指出，从韩美自贸协定 角度来看，韩国本应享受更低的关税水平。 （文章来源：新华社） 新华财经首尔8月1日电（记者陈怡孙一然）美国与韩国日前达成贸易协议，但此举在韩国国内引发质疑 和反对声。韩国最大在野党国民力量党认为，急于与美国达成关税协议让韩国在对美大规模投资方面做 出许多让步。 根据韩国产业通商资源部官网7月31日发布的消息，产业通商资源部长官金正官表示，虽然韩美双方已 就大框架达成协议，但部分细节仍需进一步协商。他说，韩国政府将继续以国家利益为重，积极支持韩 国企业提升竞争力。 根据美国总统特朗普的说法，韩国输美产品将适用1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The German Chancellor Merz announced that the EU will negotiate with the US regarding steel export quotas, focusing on avoiding excessive tariffs [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - A trade agreement was reached last month, setting tariffs at 15% for most products, while certain sectors, including steel and aluminum, are still under negotiation with tariffs at 50% [1] - The current task is to establish the "details" of the negotiations [1] Group 2: Impact on European Industry - Merz described the agreement as "painful" for the entire European industry [1] - He emphasized that the EU does not have the capacity to initiate a full-scale trade dispute, as it would result in losses, particularly for Europeans [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic asphalt market fundamentals weakened marginally. Supply pressure increased due to the expected third - quarter terminal rush and high asphalt cracking spreads, while demand decreased because of weather - related construction disruptions. Socially - held inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. Macro improvements had limited support for the market. Cost - driven factors led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices, which in turn drove the asphalt market. Currently, the asphalt market lacks a core driving factor and is mainly influenced by crude oil. Given the medium - to long - term expectation of crude oil supply surplus, the asphalt price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. For trading strategies, pay attention to the pressure range of 3700 - 3750 for the BU2510 contract, and consider short - selling if US sanctions on Russia are lower than market expectations [69]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In July, the asphalt futures price fluctuated widely. On one hand, the asphalt fundamentals showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Asphalt production continued to rise as refinery operating rates increased, while demand weakened due to the typhoon season in the southern region. Social inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. On the other hand, the marginal improvement in the supply and demand of crude oil supported oil prices. In the context of less prominent fundamental contradictions, the cost was the main influencing factor for asphalt prices [6]. 02 Macro Analysis - **Trade Agreements**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and Chinese counter - measures for 90 days. The US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, etc., and also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil. In the short term, trade tensions were effectively alleviated, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the long - term impact on the global economy remains uncertain [8]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed officials opposed the decision, indicating a weakening of internal consensus. Fed Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut decreased. The interest - rate decision and Powell's speech added uncertainty to the future interest - rate adjustment rhythm [12]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: US President Trump set a deadline for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and threatened sanctions if the goal was not achieved. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about the supply side of the market and supported the recent strengthening of oil prices [13]. 03 Supply - Demand Analysis - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the market expects a continued increase in September to reach the target of restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of production. The market has fully priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. Additionally, Kazakhstan's production exceeded the quota, raising concerns about OPEC+ internal price competition [16][17]. - **IEA, EIA, and OPEC Forecasts**: In July, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different expectations for global crude oil supply and demand growth. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day, maintaining a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting demand improvement due to the easing of global trade tensions [19]. - **Domestic Asphalt Supply**: In July, domestic asphalt production was 2.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 234,000 tons or 10.5%. The operating rate of domestic refineries increased, with significant increases in the East China and Shandong regions. The asphalt cracking spread fluctuated, and the expected third - quarter terminal rush demand drove the refinery operating rate to rise, increasing supply pressure [21][29]. - **Domestic Asphalt Demand**: In July, domestic asphalt shipments were 1.867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 88,000 tons. Rainy weather restricted terminal construction, weakening demand. As the rainy season ended, shipments increased week - on - week. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased, but the long - term growth space is limited [30][33]. - **Import and Export**: In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. Exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 11.53% year - on - year, while cumulative exports increased by 53.36% year - on - year [40][43]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 700,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The social inventory was 1.343 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased slightly due to lower production and increased terminal construction, while social inventory increased slightly due to weak demand and remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 1, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 551.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 76 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 57.25 as of July 31. The asphalt cracking spread weakened, and the basis first strengthened and then weakened, indicating weak price support from the demand side [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].

韩国财政部长：关于贸易协议，"魔鬼藏在细节中"。 ...

中新网8月1日电"8月1日期限就是8月1日期限——不会延期！这对美国来说是个大日子！！！"当地时间 7月30日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发文宣称。 连日来，美国政府不断挥舞"关税大棒"，以此为其贸易协议谈判造势，对各国施压。如今，随着8月1日 的到来，美方的一系列举动不仅在全球范围内制造巨大混乱和不确定性，其达成的贸易协议更是屈指可 数，远少于此前所宣称的"90天内达成90份协议"。 挥舞关税大棒，美国"得逞"多少？ 早在4月，宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫方面曾宣称，可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。 到了7月中上旬，特朗普又先后致信20多个贸易伙伴国的领导人，威胁称美国将从8月1日起，对这些贸 易伙伴征收20%至50%不等的关税，以此施压对方同美国达成贸易协议。 资料图：美国总统特朗普。 然而，截至目前，根据美方公布的信息，美国仅与欧盟、英国、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、越 南等不到十国，达成贸易协议。 其中，美国将对菲律宾和印度尼西亚征收19%的关税，对欧盟、韩国以及日本输美商品，征收15%的关 税。 根据协议，欧盟还将对美增加6000亿美元投资及购买价值7500亿美元的美国能 ...

关税大限将至，特朗普重大转变。 美东时间7月31日，特朗普宣布，美国与墨西哥的关税协议将延长90天，即墨西哥将继续支付25%的芬太尼 关税、25%的汽车关税以及50%的钢铁、铝和铜关税。而在此之前，特朗普一直强调和多国的"对等关税"定 于8月1日生效。 除了25%的整体关税外，墨西哥商品还面临25%的汽车进口关税以及50%的金属类商品（如钢铁、铝、铜） 关税。特朗普加征的汽车关税和金属关税针对的是所有外国商品。 特朗普此前威胁将墨西哥进口商品的统一关税税率从25%提高至30%，新关税税率原定于周五生效，这一天 也是特朗普所设定的贸易谈判最后期限。 然而，特朗普在当地时间7月31日上午表示，他将暂缓对墨西哥实施任何新的关税措施，原因是他与墨西哥总 统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆进行了一次"非常成功"的电话会谈。 此外， 特朗普签署了一项行政命令，将对加拿大的关税从25%提高至35%，更高的关税将于2025年8月1日 生效。美国白宫还表示，为逃避加拿大35%的关税而转运的货物将被征收40%的转运关税。 美元兑加元短线 走高。美国股指期货保持下跌。 在关税大限前夕，全球贸易谈判进入白热化阶段。美国白宫表示，特朗普将于周四（美东 ...

匈牙利总理欧尔班：在欧盟-美国贸易协议之后，匈牙利政府将制定行动计划，以保护匈牙利的就业和 工业。 ...