Group 1 - The A-share market has shown weak performance recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 1.1% on December 16, marking a cumulative decline of 2.5% over the past six trading days [2] - The market is experiencing a broad decline, with over 4,000 listed companies falling, while the trading volume on December 16 was 1.75 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day [2] - The sectors performing well include retail, beauty care, and social services, while telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment saw the largest declines [2] Group 2 - Both internal and external factors have contributed to a temporary decline in market risk appetite, with external factors playing a dominant role. The recent FOMC meeting indicated a neutral to hawkish stance, with expectations of only one rate cut by 2026, raising concerns about liquidity [3] - Domestic economic data for November showed a continued slowdown compared to October, with significant declines in fixed asset investment and retail consumption growth, leading to increased market focus on fundamental data [3] Group 3 - The underlying logic for market growth remains intact, with a positive mid-term trend expected through 2026. The macro policy shift since last year has changed investor sentiment, providing a stable foundation for market recovery [4] - The fundamental drivers of the current market rally include the restructuring of the international monetary order and advancements in industrial innovation, both of which have not been disrupted [4] Group 4 - The current market pullback may offer good positioning opportunities for the first half of 2026, as overall valuations in the A-share market remain attractive compared to global peers and major asset classes [5] - Suggested investment strategies include focusing on growth styles during market corrections, with three main lines of focus: 1) sectors experiencing growth such as AI technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, 2) companies benefiting from overseas expansion, and 3) cyclical sectors nearing improvement points [5][6]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：考验定力 12 月 16 日 ，市场重演债涨股跌剧情。近期全球市场风偏一致走弱，最近一个交易日，美日韩等国主流股指 均呈现明显下跌状态，国内权益市场同样受到预期冲击，各大股指普遍回调，其中科技类板块跌幅更为显著。债 市则中断了连续两日的急跌行情，不过整体的修复幅度较为有限。 权益市场缩量下跌。万得全 A下跌 1.45%，全天成交额 1.75 万亿元，较昨日（12 月 15 日）缩量 463 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数下跌 1.54%，恒生科技下跌 1.74%。南向资金净流入 0.82 亿港元，其中小米集团和小鹏 汽车分别净流入 6.32 亿港元和 3.45 亿港元，阿里巴巴和中国移动分别净流出 6.32 亿港元和 4.60 亿港元。 下跌压力主要来源于全球层面。其一，日本央行将于 12 月 19日公布利率决议，预计加息 25bp，市场担忧套 系交易逆转对权益行情造成冲击（参考 2024 年 8 月 5 日大跌）。其二，美股再显疲态，纳斯达克指数从 12 月 11 日开始回调，截至 ...

近日，美银以研究报告的形式，发布了一份全球基金经理信心大调查，238位手握5690亿美元资产的投 资者接受了这份调查。 调查结果显示，受调查的基金经理们宏观乐观度飙升至2021年8月以来的最高，现金持有量创纪录低至 3.3%，AI泡沫、私人信贷风险已悄然成为悬在市场上空的"达摩克利斯之剑"。 01 明年宏观预测：软着陆成共识 每当基金经理集体乐观的时候，究竟意味着机遇，还是风险？ 美银的这份调查显示，基金经理们对2026年全球经济的信心彻底回暖。 57%的基金经理看好全球经济"软着陆"——温和增长+通胀可控；另有37%的基金经理认为经济继续"起 飞"——持续强劲增长；仅3%的基金经理担忧经济"硬着陆"。 全球增长预期升至4年高点，企业盈利预期同步飙至2021年8月以来峰值，41%的受访者认为亚太企业盈 利将走强。 流动性环境被评为2021年9月以来最佳，69%的投资者押注凯文.哈西特将出任下任美联储主席。 02 AI与黄金：风险与拥挤交易 尽管基金经理对宏观经济大面积乐观，但大家并没有失去风险意识，37%的受访者认为风险可能来自 于"AI泡沫"。 40%的受访者认为存在信贷危机隐患：私人信贷是系统性信贷事件的 ...

接下来A股怎么走？ 眼下对沪指来说，重点是3800点的支撑，最好的方式是在这个位置之下形成空头陷阱，这样市场整体的强势就保住了，如果说3800点成了多空分水岭，那就 要有风险防范意识了，我说这话大家好好想想。 实际上创业板现在看还处在高位，3000点则是多空力量的关键点，以不跌破3000点为强势，否则的话就要另当别论了。 以我的看法，3800点之下市场应该会形成明显的支撑，至于这种想法是否现实，那就要看下一步消息面的变化了，以及美股那边涨跌情况而定。 这种情形下，再看看A股的走势，低开之后直线下挫，沪指在一个多小时就下跌了1.31%，盘中最低到了3815点，上次的低点也被打破了，尤其是创业板指 数盘中一度重挫了2.5%，像这么弱的单日走势，在近期其实并不多见，所以说今天市场有点出乎意料。 其一，我觉得主要还是美股科技股的影响，舆论对部分美股大型科技股的AI泡沫呼声很高，如此美股已经连续调整两天了，当前不只是美股在高位，A股的 科技股虽然说出现了阶段性震荡，不过从绝对的位置看，这波其实没有调整多少，还是存在大量的获利盘，这种情形下，只要美股那边稍微有点风吹草动， A股这边往往就会成为惊弓之鸟。 今天A股科技龙头 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation - The core viewpoint emphasizes that investors should focus on building resilient investment portfolios amid uncertainty rather than trying to predict market turning points [2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, predicts that the US economy will maintain resilience over the next two years, with real growth close to 2% and nominal growth reaching 4-5% [3] - The support for this prediction is based on the "AI investment boom" and the unique US strategy of "high growth, high inflation, and low interest rate" for debt management [3] Group 2: Market Perspectives - Lianhua Asset Management's partner, Hong Hao, anticipates significant market volatility in 2026 due to potential Federal Reserve policy missteps, suggesting that the dollar may be losing its traditional safe-haven status [4] - Hong Hao believes that the US stock market may experience a "rise then fall" pattern, with liquidity cycles still supporting risk assets in the short term, but warns of high valuation risks [4] - In contrast, Hong Hao is more optimistic about commodities, particularly industrial metals, which he sees as essential in the AI era for building data and energy centers [4][5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Xing Ziqiang highlights the "bright side" of the Chinese economy, noting that new technology sectors provide opportunities for investors, especially after the "9.24 policy" improved market vitality [8] - Hong Hao points out that China is undergoing a significant transition from a real estate-driven economy to one driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics [8] - The outlook for the Chinese stock market is characterized by dynamic highlights that can sustain growth despite macroeconomic challenges [8][10] Group 4: Long-term Strategy - Xing Ziqiang proposes a new asset allocation strategy termed "6-2-2," suggesting 60% in equities, 20% in gold, and 20% in bonds, reflecting a reassessment of strategic asset values amid declining fiat currency credibility [10] - Hong Hao expresses cautious optimism about gold, suggesting potential prices of $4000 for gold and $60 for silver, while noting that current prices may already reflect most positive factors [11] - The final investment advice emphasizes the importance of position management and constructing a portfolio with multiple independent sources of alpha to achieve controllable volatility and attractive returns [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility and illusion of wealth in the AI industry, emphasizing that perceived losses in market value are often just numerical illusions rather than actual wealth being transferred or lost [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics and Illusions - The AI industry experienced a dramatic rise and fall in valuations, with companies like SenseTime and Cambricon losing significant market value as the hype around AI waned [2][3]. - The concept of "wealth" in the market is described as a collective illusion, where perceived losses are merely a return to reality rather than actual money disappearing [3][4]. - The valuation mechanisms in the market are compared to AI's propensity for "hallucination," where both can create misleading perceptions based on limited data [6][8]. Group 2: Valuation Mechanisms - The article illustrates how market valuations can fluctuate dramatically based on limited trading activity, leading to significant changes in perceived wealth without any actual change in the underlying assets [9][10]. - It highlights that the majority of stocks remain untraded, yet their valuations are influenced by the prices of a small fraction of shares that do trade [26][28]. - The phenomenon of "mark-to-market" accounting is discussed, where the value of all shares is adjusted based on the price of a few traded shares, leading to widespread valuation changes [10][12]. Group 3: Wealth Creation and Destruction - Wealth is described as not being conserved like physical entities; it can be created or destroyed based on market perceptions and valuations [8][17]. - The article emphasizes that the disappearance of wealth during market corrections is not due to funds being withdrawn but rather a change in collective valuation consensus [28][39]. - The example of a fictional AI chip company illustrates how market sentiment can lead to rapid valuation changes, demonstrating the volatility inherent in the AI sector [9][10][12]. Group 4: Insights on Investment Behavior - Investors are cautioned to be aware of the speculative nature of AI stocks, where hype can lead to inflated valuations that do not reflect true company performance [70][71]. - The article advises distinguishing between the technological value of AI and the market's speculative valuations, which can often diverge significantly [71][72]. - It encourages a rational approach to understanding market fluctuations, recognizing that wealth is not solely defined by stock prices but also by skills and knowledge [73][74]. Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The article draws parallels between the AI market and the real estate market, illustrating how perceived value can change without any physical alterations to the assets themselves [54][60]. - It discusses the broader economic impact of wealth disappearance, particularly in the context of consumer behavior and economic growth [61][62]. - The phenomenon of wealth illusion is further exemplified through the cryptocurrency market, where valuations can be even more volatile and disconnected from tangible assets [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant concerns regarding the AI bubble, as evidenced by CoreWeave's market value plummeting by $33 billion, over 60%, within six weeks, alongside declines in Broadcom and Oracle's stock prices by more than 17% in three trading days [1][14]. Group 1: CoreWeave's Operational Challenges - CoreWeave's construction of a major AI data center cluster in Denton, Texas, has been delayed by approximately 60 days due to severe summer weather, impacting its ability to deliver 260 megawatts of computing power to OpenAI [3][6]. - The CEO's contradictory statements during the November earnings call heightened investor panic, as he initially downplayed the issue, only to be corrected by the CFO, indicating a broader problem affecting the entire data center supply chain [4][9]. - The construction delays have exposed systemic risks within the AI infrastructure industry, highlighting a widening gap between rapid construction and actual delivery capabilities, with significant valuations already priced in [5][11]. Group 2: Financial and Debt Concerns - CoreWeave's financial situation is precarious, with a recent quarterly revenue doubling to nearly $1.4 billion, yet the company reported a loss of $110 million, and its operating profit margin of about 4% is insufficient to cover debt interest payments [10]. - The company recently completed a $2.25 billion convertible bond issuance, which, while having a lower interest rate than typical asset-backed financing, poses risks of shareholder dilution and further stock price pressure [10]. - The cost of debt default insurance for CoreWeave has surged to 7.9 percentage points, reflecting growing concerns about its financial stability [10]. Group 3: Industry-Wide Implications - The turmoil at CoreWeave has raised broader questions about the AI industry's rapid growth and the timing and manner of significant capital investments yielding healthy profits [11][12]. - Delays in construction and supply chain bottlenecks are threatening to postpone spending plans worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which have already been factored into valuations across the industry [17]. - Oracle and Broadcom have also faced stock price declines due to concerns over delayed capital expenditures, indicating that the issues affecting CoreWeave are resonating throughout the entire tech sector [14][15].

消息面上，摩根大通信用分析师Erica Spear预计，进入新的一年，甲骨文债券仍将持续承压。上周，甲 骨文股价录得近11个月来最大跌幅，衡量其信用风险的指标也升至16年来新高。公司最新季度财报显示 云业务收入不及分析师预期，同时还将年度资本开支目标上调150亿美元，并将未来租赁承诺规模扩大 至原来的两倍以上，这一系列举动加剧了投资者对潜在AI泡沫的担忧。(格隆汇) 甲骨文(ORCL.US)盘前续跌1.3%，报182.5美元。截至周一收盘，该股已自9月创下的历史高位345.121美 元跌去46%。 ...

新华财经上海12月16日电（葛佳明） 北京时间12月16日（周二）21:30，美国劳工统计局（BLS）将公 布11月份非农就业数据。尽管受到此前美国政府停摆以及统计延迟等一系列因素影响，但美国就业市场 下行趋势未改。 当前市场预计11月份新增非农就业人数5万，较9月份的11.9万大幅放缓，失业率可能从9月份的4.4%进 一步抬升至4.5%–4.6%区间，平均每小时工资年率预计为3.6%。 美国高频就业数据显示，劳动力需求的持续降温：以ADP就业报告为例，9月至1月ADP新增就业分别为 2.4万、0.3万、-0.4万，呈现下滑趋势。 私人数据提供商Revelio Labs的报告（RPLS）称，基于领英（LinkedIn）等在线平台上的逾1亿份职业就 业数据，9月至11月的新增就业人数分别为3.8万、减少1.5万以及减少9.0万，显示出就业招聘趋势走 弱。 华创证券研究所副所长张瑜认为，目前从6个跟踪指标来看，美国劳动力市场的近期（10-11月）趋势是 继续慢性趋弱：劳动力需求走弱（职位空缺数下降）、新增就业下滑、失业率或趋于小幅抬升。 分析师表示，在当前宏观环境下，非农就业人数本身的边际信息含量正在下降。无论是 ...

近期，受内外部扰动因素影响，市场情绪趋于谨慎。从外部环境看，上周五（25/12/12）美股科技板块 普遍调整，或再次引发市场对AI泡沫与算力基建前景的担忧，调整情绪传导至A股进一步压制了市场风 险偏好。从内部数据看，2025年11月社会消费品零售总额同比增速有所放缓，或反映出当前内需复苏基 础尚需巩固。在此背景下，红利类资产则凭借其较低波动性和较高盈利确定性有望成为资金进行风险防 御的重要工具。（数据来源：Bloomberg、国家统计局，发布于25/12/15） 资金流向数据显示，红利类主题ETF标杆品种红利低波ETF（512890）2025年四季度以来（25/10/9- 25/12/15）获资金净流入态势明显，48个交易日中有35个交易日实现资金净流入，区间累计吸金45.99亿 元，是同期市场上所有红利类主题ETF中仅有的区间资金净流入超40亿元的产品。在近期市场整体缩量 震荡的背景下，具备一定韧性的红利低波ETF（512890）连续4个交易日（25/12/10-12/15）合计获5.24 亿元资金加仓，成为资金的重点配置方向之一；从成交活跃度看，同期日均成交额达5.70亿元，较今年 以来（25/1/2-2 ...