Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, suggesting continued improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI has risen to 49.7% in June, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month indicates a positive trend in the manufacturing sector [1]

中国6月官方制造业PMI将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming release of China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for June at 9:30 AM Beijing time, indicating a significant event for market participants to monitor [1] Group 1 - The release of the manufacturing PMI is crucial for assessing the health of the manufacturing sector in China, which is a key driver of the country's economy [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI will provide insights into the services sector, which has been increasingly important in China's economic structure [1]

当前时点如何看机械出口链？20260629 摘要 美国经济数据稳健，关税影响尚未显现，中美关系缓和及全球关税谈判 释放利好，提振市场对机械行业出口链企业的乐观预期。 轻工消费品类标的因业绩确定性已恢复至关税前高点，而机械行业 ToB 端企业受利润率和需求不确定性影响，复苏相对滞后，但前期不确定性 已逐步消除。 企业通过海外建厂和提价转移关税压力，终端客户对小幅涨价接受度较 高，需求端与美国房屋维修更新相关，具备一定弹性，市场风险可控。 巨星科技凭借全球产能布局优势，受益于下游商超分散供应链的需求， 市场份额有望提升，且敢于投资进行海外布局。 全球制造业产能扩张加速经济发展，不仅是中国企业海外建厂，其他国 家也希望承接红利，带动当地工资上涨和消费需求增长。 中国产品为发展中国家创造价值，是其发展工具，购买决策更看重产品 价值和性价比，新兴市场发展离不开中国工具品。 中国制造业建厂节奏加快，注塑机和叉车反应最快，未来工控类产品、 设备零部件、一站式采购模式等也将带动正向发展，中国企业有望成为 新一代全球龙头。 Q&A 上周机械行业出口链企业股价反弹的原因是什么？ 上周机械行业出口链企业股价反弹的原因可能是多方面因 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the release of China's official manufacturing PMI for June, indicating the current state of the manufacturing sector [1] - It also mentions the European Central Bank's central banking forum taking place in Sintra, which may influence monetary policy discussions [1]

Group 1 - The core argument suggests that while the U.S. manufacturing sector appears weak, it is actually smaller in scale rather than entirely failing [1] - In 2024, U.S. manufacturing's share of GDP is projected to fall below 10%, compared to China's 26%, but the U.S. manufacturing output is approximately 60% of China's due to a larger GDP [1] - The automotive industry exemplifies this issue, with the U.S. producing 12 million vehicles in 2024, while China produces 31 million, leading to a reliance on imports for 400,000 vehicles in the U.S. market [1] Group 2 - Historical comparisons reveal a significant decline in U.S. manufacturing capabilities, with steel production dropping from two-thirds of global output to just 4% [2] - The production cycle for military vessels has dramatically increased, with the construction of a new aircraft carrier taking five years compared to the rapid production during World War II [2] Group 3 - U.S. manufacturing is still strong in high-tech sectors, with major companies like Boeing and Honeywell investing heavily in R&D, surpassing other countries [4] - The U.S. dominates the list of the world's top manufacturing companies by market capitalization, with the highest valued companies exceeding one trillion RMB, while China's top company, Midea, is valued at 600 billion RMB [4] - The effectiveness of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration to encourage manufacturing return is questioned, as labor costs in China remain lower than in the U.S., leading capital to relocate to cheaper countries like Vietnam and Mexico [4] - The ultimate goal of U.S. manufacturing policies appears to be to exclude China from the supply chain and maintain dominance in high-end manufacturing, although a return to a self-sufficient manufacturing model is deemed unrealistic [4]

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 工业收入增长放缓，工程机械预期趋弱 ——机械行业周报（2025.06.23~2025.06.29） 相关研究： 1.《20250615湘财证券-机械行业：关注 可控核聚变、油气设备、工程机械》 2.《20250622湘财证券-机械行业：关注 机床工具、机器人、叉车》 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.0 -3.8 17.1 绝对收益 1.2 -3.6 30.4 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 通用自动化设备：1-5 月我国工业企业收入同比增长 2.7% 据 Wind 数据，2025 年 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Important economic data and events are scheduled for the upcoming week, including China's manufacturing PMI and the US non-farm payroll report [1][2] - Key Point 2: The "big and beautiful" bill proposed by Trump is expected to undergo a final vote, with less than a week remaining before the July 4 deadline [1] - Key Point 3: The European Central Bank will hold a forum in Sintra, where major central bank leaders will engage in discussions [1][2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Various economic indicators will be released, including the US API and EIA crude oil inventory reports, as well as employment data from ADP [2] - Key Point 2: The week will also see the release of service sector PMIs for multiple regions, including the US and Eurozone [2] - Key Point 3: OPEC+ members will convene to decide on production policies for August [2]

7 月流动性会更松吗？ 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 经济动态跟踪 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 6 月流动性进入年内"最松"状态，展望 7 月，流动性有哪些关注点？ 第一，参考近年规律，7 月市场往往会迎来"自发性"宽松。近年来，经济运行 基本遵循一季度"开门红"，随后增长动能渐趋平缓的规律，财政、金融更多靠前 发力。因此在 7 月份，政府债和信贷需求很难构成流动性"冲击"。 第二，央行对于经济的判断，虽然还不具有"紧迫性"，但已开始关注下行风险。 往后看，重点关注关税扰动下的制造业景气波折。经验表明，每当制造业 PMI 连 续 3 个月（或以上）跌入收缩区间，资金面往往会转松，有时甚至会触发总量货 币政策调整。再加上近期美联储降息预期"再起"，国内货币宽松的空间随之打 开。 第三，在工具选择上，货币政策更加注重灵活性和时效度，短期内重启国债买卖 的必要性不高。7 月并非财政"大月"，此外，5 月以来央 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 高技术制造业宏观周报 国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数小幅走弱 国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数小幅走弱。截至 2025 年 6 月 21 日当周， 国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数 A 录得-0.2；国信周频高技术制造业扩 散指数 B 为 50.6，较上期小幅走弱。从分项看，动态随机存储器价格上 升，半导体行业景气度上升；六氟磷酸锂、丙烯腈价格下降，新能源、 航空航天行业景气度下降；6-氨基青霉烷酸、中关村电子产品价格指数 不变，医药、计算机行业景气度不变。 高技术产业跟踪方面： 高技术制造业高频数据跟踪上，6-氨基青霉烷酸价格 260 元/千克，与 上周持平；丙烯腈价格 8150 元/吨，较上周下降 50 元/吨；动态随机存 储器（DRAM）价格 1.3910 美元，较上周上升 0.061 美元；晶圆（Wafer） 价格最新一期报 2.73 美元/片，与上周持平；六氟磷酸锂价格 5.17 万 元/吨，较上周下降 0.05 万元/吨；中关村电子产品价格指数:液晶显示 器最新一期报 91.04，与上周持平。 高技术制造业政策动向上，6 月 25 日，非侵入式脑机接口医疗器械国家 ...