成功的投资者，是善于独立思考，具有独特的见解，然而这独特的见解不是从天下掉下来，也不是从地下冒出 来，是来自市场，来自实践，市场的实际走势才是千真万确，不会以人们的意愿而转变。 在以色列-伊朗地缘政治紧张局势挥之不去之际，所有人的目光都集中在美联储的政策公告上。北京时间周四 02:00，美国联邦将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要；随后02:30美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会，美 联储政策声明将给市场带来剧烈波动。 黄金近期受中东局势影响，避险情绪拉满，回到了3400时代。但多次冲击3450关口，都未能逾越，随后迎来大幅 回落，成功跌破3400大关。目前承压3400关口弱势下行，隔日最低跌至3366附近反弹回升，但多头涨势乏力，迟 迟不能突破3400大关。今日承压继续下行，彬哥布局的3394空，再次跌至3377目标，再次收割近20点。 n a min lsl / | AIT Q 搜索聊天记录 发送人 × | 日期 v 李鸿彬 6/18 9:19 黄金隔日承压3400震荡下行,回调的低点在 下移,最低跌至3366附近回升,再次冲击 3395附近回落,那么反弹3390附近空,下 方 3373 附近多 李鸿彬 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are reshaping the global shipping landscape, with a low probability of a complete closure of the strait despite Iranian threats [1][2]. Shipping Market Impact - The oil tanker shipping sector is expected to benefit significantly from the reduction in "dark fleet" capacity, while container shipping will be relatively less affected [1][2]. - The Strait of Hormuz is strategically important for energy transport, with 11% of global maritime trade passing through it, including 34% of maritime oil exports and 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports [1][2]. Scenarios for Strait Closure - Scenario 1: Military conflict may not disrupt oil flow, and the tanker market will remain stable during the off-peak season in Q2 2025 [2]. - Scenario 2: A decline in Iranian exports could reduce "dark fleet" transport volumes, increasing demand for legitimate tankers [2]. - Scenario 3: Broader risks to oil exports in the Gulf region could create uncertainty in tanker shipping, potentially leading to longer transport distances from the Atlantic to Asia [2]. Comparison with Red Sea Route - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a limited impact on container shipping compared to the disruption of the Red Sea route, which reduced global effective capacity by about 10% in H1 2024 [2]. - Only 3% of global container trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making its closure less impactful on global container shipping capacity [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the easing of trade tensions presents an upside risk to Singapore's economic outlook, while geopolitical tensions pose a downside risk [1] Group 2 - Economists highlight that the current geopolitical landscape could significantly impact economic forecasts for Singapore [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar emphasized the need to resist protectionism and geopolitical tensions that disrupt global clean energy development and green transition processes [1] Group 1: Regional Cooperation and Investment - Anwar called for Southeast Asian countries to establish a clear and coordinated financial framework to enhance investor confidence and attract more capital into renewable energy projects in the region [1] - The Prime Minister highlighted the importance of upgrading grid systems and accelerating the adoption and application of green technologies [1]

近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 换资前言： 你见过凌晨四点的K线图吗？那不是熬夜，那是与财富的约会。现货黄金市场就像一面照妖镜，照出人 性的贪婪与恐惧，也照出强者的冷静与智慧。每一次波动都是机会在敲门——有人听成"爆仓警告"， 而你该听成"财富密码"。记住，市场从不同情眼泪，但它永远奖励那些在别人恐慌时果断出手的勇 者。别羡慕积存金玩家的岁月静好，真正的黄金战士都明白：利润藏在波动里，成长写在止损单上。今 天你承受的压力，终将变成明天账户里闪光的数字。 周一（6月16日），现货黄金价格在欧洲时段延续稳步回撤走势，从近两个月高点回落至3400美元附 近。权益市场的普遍积极表现被视为削弱避险贵金属需求的关键因素，黄金的三日连涨势头似乎就此终 结。然而分析认为下行空间相对有限，因为交易员在周三关键的联邦公开市场委员会政策决议前可能避 免激进押注。与此同时，市场对美联储将在2025年进一步降息的预期日益增强，使美元在上周五触及三 年低点后持续承压。这种状况反过来为无收益的黄金提供了一定支撑。此外，持续的贸易不确定性和中 东地区不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势或成为黄金价格的推动力，这令空头交易员 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Methanol is likely to run strongly due to geopolitical tensions, and long - position operations should be considered [10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - From last Monday to Thursday, methanol futures fluctuated slightly higher. On Friday, due to the sudden attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, the geopolitical situation became extremely tense, and methanol futures rose sharply. By the Friday afternoon close, the methanol 2509 contract closed at 2,389 yuan/ton, up 5.43% from the previous week. In the spot market, the port methanol market price continued to be strong, and the inland market rose slightly [14] Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production continued to rise slightly. The output was 1,982,656 tons, an increase of 572 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [16] - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 12, 2025, the olefin industry maintained a high - level operation, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions at 84.26%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde had different changes [19][20] - **Inventory**: As of June 11, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 379,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 302,100 tons, an increase of 39,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 15.22%. The port sample inventory was 652,200 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 12.22% [22][27] - **Profit**: As of June 12, the profits of most methanol production enterprises improved, with the profit of Hebei coke - oven gas to methanol averaging 122 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37.46%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol full - cost was 32.08 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 147.72%. However, the average profit of southwest natural gas to methanol was - 254 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30.26% [29] Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device restarts is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 2.0117 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.27%, an increase from last week [35] - **Downstream Demand**: This week, the olefin industry may see a decline in the start - up rate; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde may decline; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to change little [36][37][38] - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises will be 351,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. Port methanol inventory may decline due to a significant reduction in the unloading of visible foreign vessels [38][39]

金十数据6月13日讯，以色列能源部表示，以色列下令暂时关闭该国最大的天然气田。在以色列袭击伊 朗和伊朗承诺报复之后，出于安全考虑，海上利维坦油田（Leviathan）被关闭。此前，在地缘政治紧张 局势迅速升级后，Energean也应能源部的命令暂停了天然气生产。这种中断可能会影响到地区供应，主 要是对埃及的供应。以色列供应的长期减少可能会迫使埃及提前购买液化天然气，进一步收紧全球市 场。欧洲的天然气价格也上涨了6.6%。位于地中海东部的利维坦气田由雪佛龙公司运营，该项目向国 内客户以及约旦和埃及等邻国供应天然气。Energean的Karish油田仅满足以色列国内需求。目前尚不清 楚雪佛龙运营的另一个油田Tamar是否也已暂停。 以色列下令暂时关闭该国最大的天然气田，主要影响对埃及的供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that despite concerns about U.S. policies, the U.S. dollar remains a safe haven in the face of geopolitical tensions, particularly following Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The strengthening of the dollar is attributed to significant geopolitical shocks, which reaffirm its status as a safe haven currency [1]. - Analysts suggest that the perception of the dollar as a non-safe haven may be challenged by recent events, emphasizing its resilience compared to other safe-haven assets [1]. Group 2: Economic Stability - The U.S. economy is viewed as relatively less affected by geopolitical disruptions compared to other economies, enhancing the dollar's appeal [1]. - The balance between tariff concerns and geopolitical worries is identified as a primary driver of current market dynamics [1].

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has depreciated by 1% against the US dollar, primarily due to heightened geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1 - The decline in the NZD is attributed to external factors, particularly geopolitical issues affecting market stability [1]

目前支撑美元的两大关键因素包括：首先，美元汇率与利率差异之间已经出现了显著偏离，如果短期内 美国短期国债利率没有进一步下降，美元很难继续走弱。 ING集团的外汇分析师Chris Turner评论称，最新的CPI数据显示通胀压力减轻，这使得市场对于美联储 年内降息的预期上升了9至10个基点。同时，美元指数接近4月份创下的低点97.90至98.00区间，尽管有 贸易谈判进展的消息传出，但美元并未因此反弹。 分析认为，协议细节的模糊性以及特朗普政府向多个国家发出的强硬贸易协议函，都让市场担心7月9日 关税可能大幅上调，这对美元构成了负面因素。 新华财经北京6月12日电在近期的外汇市场上，美元的表现持续疲软。过去十周内，市场对美元与美国 国债之间的传统相关性产生了质疑。然而，周三发布的低于预期的消费者物价指数（CPI）数据推动了 美债价格上扬，美元也因此回归其与美债的传统联动模式。 不过，当天公布的生产者物价指数（PPI）或初次申请失业救济金人数能否促使利率下降仍不确定。其 次，地缘政治紧张局势，特别是中东地区因以色列与伊朗间的潜在冲突而加剧的不稳定，导致油价上 涨。美国作为能源独立国家，在这种情况下美元可能会因为其 ...