Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the coking coal and coke in the black sector will show a range - bound trend. Although there was a slight correction in the black sector during the night session yesterday, the coking coal and coke are expected to have an oscillating market during today's daytime session [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1238.0, up 3.55% from the opening of the daytime session; the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1770.0, up 1.26% from the opening of the daytime session. During the night session, Jm2605 closed at 1213.5, down 1.98% from the daytime close, and J2605 closed at 1754.0, down 0.9% from the daytime close [2]. 3.2 Important News - Multiple cities in Hebei and Liaocheng launched or announced the launch of heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency responses between January 12 - 13, 2026 [2]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to modify the iron ore futures contracts and business rules, adjusting the reference standards for inspection methods in the iron ore delivery quality standards [2]. - On January 12, some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia announced a 50 - yuan - per - ton price increase for secondary and tertiary coke starting from January 13, 2026 [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - Coking coal prices rose on Monday. Last week, the speculation of supply - side production restrictions coincided with the downstream restocking demand, driving the spot auction prices to stabilize and rebound. Last week, the molten iron output rebounded to 230,000 tons. After four consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, steel mills saw some profit margins, and with the arrival of restocking demand, coke initiated the first round of price increase, but the mainstream market has not responded yet. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke showed signs of recovery over the weekend, which briefly boosted market sentiment [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Considering the slight correction in the black sector during the night session yesterday, the coking coal and coke are expected to have an oscillating market during today's daytime session [2].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格下跌 | 31 | 元至 | 2236 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | | | | 价格上涨 | 18 | 元至 | 2260 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 31239 | 手至 | 46.19 | 万手，空 | 头持仓增加 | 45607 | 手至 | 62.6 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 91.4%，环比+1.1%。海外甲醇开工率 | 59.4%，环比+1.8%。 | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures experienced a short-term decline near the end of the morning session on January 13, despite still showing an increase of over 11% [1] Group 1 - The lithium carbonate futures contract opened its limit down after a short-term drop [1] - The increase in the contract's price remains significant, exceeding 11% [1]

联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.75%，收于229 | | | | | 3元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价整体稳定。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2163元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2254元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格继续走强。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2275-2280元/吨，较上周五涨20元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较上周 | | | | | 五持平。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月12日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增1520手，共计 | | | | | 38075手。 | | | | | 4、美国农业部1月份供需报告调高美玉米产量和库存，CBOT玉米承压下跌。2025/ | | | 玉米 | 区 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while there are policy disturbances affecting the soda ash market, the fundamentals are limiting upward price movements [4][39]. - Supply of soda ash has increased week-on-week due to reduced maintenance schedules and new capacity coming online, leading to significant pressure on the supply side [4][39]. - Demand for soda ash has slightly decreased, particularly in heavy soda ash, while light soda ash demand remains stable [4][39]. Group 2 - Inventory levels for soda ash have significantly increased, with production company inventories rising sharply and social inventories slightly declining, indicating an overall surplus in supply [4][39]. - The short-term strategy for soda ash is expected to be characterized by low-level fluctuations, with a price range of 1180-1280 for the SA2605 contract [4][40]. - In the medium term, the market is expected to remain bearish due to persistent oversupply, with a focus on selling opportunities after price rebounds [5][40]. Group 3 - The production cost of soda ash has shown slight fluctuations, with the cost for ammonia-based production at 1308 yuan/ton and for co-production at 1648 yuan/ton [11][46]. - The overall operating rate for soda ash production has increased to 84.39%, with weekly production rising to 75.36 million tons [13][49]. - The soda ash sales-to-production ratio has decreased to 78.18%, indicating a decline in market activity [16][53]. Group 4 - The glass market has seen a decrease in supply due to maintenance on production lines, which has positively impacted prices [26][64]. - Demand for glass has slightly decreased, with increased speculative demand noted, particularly in the context of a weak real estate market [26][64]. - Glass inventory has decreased by nearly 7,000 tons week-on-week, indicating improved sales activity [26][75].

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日 一、市场行情回顾 2，现货市场：稳中震荡。企业装置开停并存，河南金山恢复运行，河南中 源三期检修，综合供应高位徘徊。下游企业采购积极性不佳，对高价抵触，维持 低价需采购。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 11 元/吨。 需求方面，本周纯碱企业出货量 58.92 万吨，环比下降 18.99%；纯碱整体 出货率为 78.18%，环比-26.15%。纯碱下游需求一般，消耗库存、低价采购为主。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 二、基本面数据 1 供应方面，截止 1 月 8 日，国内纯碱产量 75.36 万吨，环比+5.65 万吨，涨 幅 8.11%。其中，轻碱产量 34.91 万吨，环比+2.30 万吨；重碱产量 40.45 万吨， 环比+3.35 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.39%，上周 79.96%，环比+4.43%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 90.41%，环比+11.20%；联产产能利用率 74.11%，环比+1.33%。15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Peanut Daily Report [1] - Date: January 12, 2026 [1][2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] Group 2: Data Futures Market - PK604: Closing price 7860, down 60 (-0.76%); Volume 31,429, down 21.48%; Open interest 34,965, down 4.45% [2] - PK610: Closing price 8262, up 2 (0.02%); Volume 201, down 53.69%; Open interest 2,459, up 1.61% [2] - PK601: No valid data for closing price and change; Volume 0, down 100.00%; Open interest 1,052, down 17.62% [2] Spot Market - **Peanut**: Henan Nanyang 7400 yuan/ton; Shandong Jining 8400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; Shandong Linyi 8400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [2] - **Peanut Meal**: Rizhao 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Soybean Meal**: Rizhao 3120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2][6] - **Peanut Oil**: 14350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Soybean Oil**: Rizhao first - grade 8320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [2] Import Price - Sudanese peanuts 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Brazilian new peanuts 9200 yuan/ton; Indian 50/60 peanuts 8000 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] Spread - PK04 - PK10 spread: -402, down 62 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Henan peanut prices are stable, while Northeast China's are weak. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 peanuts are 4.6 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; Liaoning Changtu 4.6 yuan/jin, stable. Henan's Baisha peanuts are 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, stable; Shandong Junan 3.5 yuan/jin, stable [4] - Peanut oil prices are stable. Mainstream peanut oil factory purchase prices range from 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton, with a theoretical cost - break price of 7780 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is 14300 yuan/ton, and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16500 yuan/ton, both stable [4][6] - Rizhao soybean meal prices are up. The unit protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and peanut meal is expected to remain strong in the short term. 48 - protein peanut meal is 3100 yuan/ton [6] - Overall, peanut supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. Peanut futures will continue to fluctuate weakly [4][8] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Go long on 05 peanuts at low prices as it is in bottom - range oscillation [9] Calendar Spread - Stay on the sidelines [10] Options - Sell PK603 - P - 8200 at high prices [11] Group 5: Related Charts - Chart 1: Shandong peanut spot prices (yuan/ton) [13] - Chart 2: Peanut oil factory crushing profit (yuan/ton) [13] - Chart 3: Peanut oil prices (yuan/ton) [19] - Chart 4: Peanut spot and continuous contract basis (yuan/ton) [19] - Chart 5: Peanut 4 - 10 contract spread (yuan/ton) [21] - Chart 6: Peanut 1 - 4 contract spread (yuan/ton) [21]

Report Summary for Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: Currently in a state of oscillatory movement. With stable spot prices last week, the AI - intelligent investment consultation report shows the daily price in a sideways phase, and the main funds have a strong bullish sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Currently on an upward trend. The spot price increased last week, the AI - intelligent investment consultation report shows the futures in a strong upward phase, and the main funds have an obvious bullish attitude. It is recommended to buy on dips [34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: Industrial silicon futures are in an oscillatory state. As of January 9, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,050 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main funds are bullish [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see due to the oscillatory movement [9]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The 2605 contract oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five - year seasonality [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: Lithium carbonate futures are on an upward trend. As of January 9, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 136,300 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 139,100 yuan/ton. The daily futures price is in a strong upward phase, and the main funds are bullish [34][35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as the bottom is rising [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The main contract should focus on the support in the range of 100,000 - 105,000 yuan. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract should focus on the support in the range of 116,000 - 118,000 yuan [38][39]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [42]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five - year seasonality [47].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel's main contract has increased by 5% in a single day, currently priced at 143,390.00 yuan [1] Group 1 - Nickel's main contract shows a significant daily increase of 5% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro - finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black building materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][12] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1][14] - Tin: Range trading [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1][18] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1][20] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][24] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Bearish and range - bound [1][27] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bullish and range - bound [1][29] - Apples: Bullish and range - bound [1][31] - Jujubes: Rebound from the bottom [1][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: Sell on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [1][33] - Eggs: Wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 contract [1][34] - Corn: Cautiously chase highs in the short term, hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [1][36] - Soybean meal: Bullish for near - term contracts, bearish for far - term contracts [1][39] - Oils: Limited rebound for soybean and palm oils, bearish for rapeseed oil [1][40] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, taking into account factors such as production, demand, inventory, and policy changes [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The US economic data and geopolitical risks may cause index futures to fluctuate. However, considering the PMI recovery in December and expectations of early policy support in the new year, the market is expected to develop further. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The decline in bond market decline momentum has appeared, and there may be short - term support. But in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The market is in a game between strong bearish factors and weak marginal support. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests range trading on the right side [7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded to above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period with weakening export expectations and a seasonal weakening of the supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [7] - **Glass**: Although there has been a short - term rebound due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Driven by macro - sentiment and funds, the price has reached a high level, but the current demand is weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the long - term price is expected to rise. In the short term, it may maintain a wide - range high - level shock [10] - **Aluminum**: The current supply is in a weak state, and the price is mainly driven by expectations and funds. With increasing production capacity and weakening demand, the upward pressure is large. It is recommended to observe the policy changes [12] - **Nickel**: Although the price has rebounded due to factors such as quota cuts, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and pay attention to supply and demand changes [15] - **Gold and silver**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to rise in the medium term. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is expected to move in a range [18] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, but the low valuation and potential policy support suggest a low - buying strategy. It is necessary to pay attention to policies, export, and cost factors [18] - **Caustic soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the commodity atmosphere. It is recommended to observe the changes in supply and demand [20] - **Soda ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and observe [28] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the short - term is recommended to be bearish. It is necessary to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long term [22] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, and the price may continue to correct. It is recommended to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and other factors [24] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors. It is recommended to trade in a range [25] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw material prices [27] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Affected by the global supply - demand adjustment and policy expectations, the price is expected to be bullish in a range [29] - **Apples**: The market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [31] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [32] Agricultural and livestock products - **Hogs**: In the short term, the price fluctuates due to the game between supply and demand. In the long term, the price is expected to be weak in the first half of the year and may strengthen in the second half, but it is still cautious. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [33] - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [34] - **Corn**: The short - term price has a selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [36] - **Soybean meal**: The short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to go long on dips for the M2603 contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [39] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of soybean and palm oils is limited, and the rapeseed oil is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs for soybean and palm oils and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [40]