Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead Market**: The lead price oscillated and declined. The raw material support weakened, and the supply tightness improved, putting pressure on the lead price. The terminal market improved, and the demand for lead batteries increased. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The fundamentals of the zinc market remained weak, and the short - term zinc price might be under pressure. In the medium term, the ore supply would tighten in the fourth quarter, providing some support to the zinc price. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On November 25, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,075 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,135 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,992 dollars/ton, up 0.15%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 22,310, down 0.27% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: There was no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee was likely to rise. Some refineries had maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead fluctuated slightly. The operation rate of secondary lead in Anhui increased after the refinery resumed production, while that in Henan decreased due to environmental protection. The demand for lead batteries improved, and the demand side increased [1]. - **Inventory**: The LME lead inventory was 265,275 tons with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 29,556 tons, down 1.33% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On November 25, 2025, the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,390 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 3,003 dollars/ton, up 0.37%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, down 0.39% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Refineries actively purchased domestic zinc ore, and the processing fee was expected to decline. The refinery profit and production enthusiasm improved, and the monthly output was expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side was weak, and the operation rate of some downstream enterprises decreased due to environmental protection and cold weather [1]. - **Inventory**: The LME zinc inventory was 47,425 tons with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 74,641 tons, up 2.39%. As of November 24, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 151,000 tons, a decrease compared to previous periods [1].

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 第一部分 | | | 数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | 2025/11/24 | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 涨跌 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | | 增减幅 | | PK604 26 | 7862 | 0.33% | 40,309 | -53.80% | 20,396 | | -2.23% | | PK510 6 | 8166 | 0.07% | 111 | 152.27% | 641 | | 2.89% | | PK601 64 | 7858 | 0.81% | 112,375 | 6.53% | 118,990 | | -7.37% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 山东济宁 山东临沂 日照花生粕 日照豆粕 | 河南南阳 | | | | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | | 今日报价 7600 | 7200 | ...

研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落4.2个百分点至24.8%，较去年同期低了7.0个百分点，处于近年同期最低水平。 据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减 幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于34%，受到资金和天气制约。上 周，东北地区沥青产量增加，叠加降价刺激出货，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加15.28%至24.6万吨，处 于中性略偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比持平，处于近年来同期的最低位附近。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美 国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对 和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。本周山东胜星等炼厂将稳定 ...

中华人民共和国证券法（2019修订） 第五十条 禁止证券交易内幕信息的知情人和非法获取内幕信息的人利用内幕信息从事证券交易活动。 第五十一条 证券交易内幕信息的知情人包括： （一）发行人及其董事、监事、高级管理人员； （二）持有公司百分之五以上股份的股东及其董事、监事、高级管理人员，公司的实际控制人及其董事、监事、高级管理人员； （三）发行人控股或者实际控制的公司及其董事、监事、高级管理人员； （四）由于所任公司职务或者因与公司业务往来可以获取公司有关内幕信息的人员； （一）公司的经营方针和经营范围的重大变化； （二）公司的重大投资行为，公司在一年内购买、出售重大资产超过公司资产总额百分之三十，或者公司营业用主要资产的抵押、质押、出售或者报废一次 超过该资产的百分之三十； （五）上市公司收购人或者重大资产交易方及其控股股东、实际控制人、董事、监事和高级管理人员； （六）因职务、工作可以获取内幕信息的证券交易场所、证券公司、证券登记结算机构、证券服务机构的有关人员； （七）因职责、工作可以获取内幕信息的证券监督管理机构工作人员； （八）因法定职责对证券的发行、交易或者对上市公司及其收购、重大资产交易进行管理可以 ...

Contents 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 2025.11.24-11.28 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第46周油厂大豆实际压榨量207.76万吨，开机率为 57.15%，豆粕库存99.29万吨。供应端，油厂高开工率与近百万吨库存令 市场承压，加之进口大豆到港及南美丰产预期，供应整体宽松。需求端， 养殖利润亏损抑制饲料消费，下游企业补库谨慎。然而，进口成本及油 厂持续亏损挺价意愿为价格提供支撑。中线趋势预计豆粕价格将处于宽 幅震荡阶段。 2 关注中美贸易政策变化，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于上行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601 短期内预计震荡调整后重心仍缓慢上移，预计运行区间： 3000-3180。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601短 期内预计处于震荡偏弱阶段，预计运行区间：2920-3080。 品种诊断情况 精选指标情况 本报 ...

Group 1: Overall Information - Report title: "Rebar, Iron Ore Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report period: November 24 - 28, 2025 [1] Group 2: Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330 [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly rebar output is 2.08 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.3 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.53 million tons, and social inventory is 5.97 million tons [7] - Mid - term strategy: Consider a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grids [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy: Implement a large - grid trading strategy as the main contract is in a sideways consolidation range [11] - Hedging advice for spot enterprises: Wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [12] 3. Related Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [15][20][21] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a range - bound consolidation stage of 732 - 872 [31] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the global shipment volume of iron ore was 3.516 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 2.268 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 9.001 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 15.054 million tons [31] - Mid - term strategy: Consider implementing a grid trading strategy [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The mid - term price of iron ore was in an oscillatory consolidation stage [34] - This week's strategy: Implement a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and 14 grids [35] 3. Related Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [41][48][52]

Report Summary of Gold and Silver Futures 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 910 - 970 yuan/gram, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the medium - to - long term [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. Short - term silver prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 yuan/kg, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the medium - to - long term [33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. The core driving factors for the range - bound movement last week were fluctuations in US Treasury yields, differences in Fed policy expectations, and repeated market sentiment [7]. - **Trend Logic**: In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 910 - 970 yuan/gram. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to gradually rise, supported by the continued trend of central bank gold purchases globally and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was in short - term shock consolidation last week, with the upper pressure level at 960 - 970 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 will continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 960 - 970 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 910 - 920 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX Gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [20][23][25]. Silver Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. The core driving factors for the wide - range shock movement last week were differences in Fed policy expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and the game of continuous destocking of spot inventory [33]. - **Trend Logic**: In the short term, silver prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to gradually rise, supported by the tight global silver supply - demand situation (low inventory + resilient industrial demand such as photovoltaics) and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [33]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Silver contract 2602 was in short - term shock consolidation last week, with the upper pressure level at 12,000 - 12,600 yuan/kg and the lower support level at 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/kg. It was recommended to wait and see [37]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Silver contract 2602 will continue to be in short - term shock consolidation, with the upper pressure level at 12,000 - 12,200 yuan/kg and the lower support level at 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/kg. It is recommended to wait and see [38]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX Silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [45][47][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with some proximal TA devices under maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load increased, inventory was depleted, basis strengthened slightly, and spot processing fees improved. PX domestic start - up increased, overseas devices reduced load, PXN strengthened, and cost - end PX had a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, with domestic oil - based production increasing load and coal - based production having some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up declined. With supply load reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. There are opportunities for short - term selling of put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber prices affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.8, PTA spot price decreased by 15, and PTA processing fee increased by 41. The average daily trading basis for PTA was 2601(-61) [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton device and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device were under maintenance [2]. - **Market Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, downstream has no obvious pressure, and with India revoking the BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 3, the inner - market price decreased by 33, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by 47.08 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device and Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [2]. - **Market Outlook**: With supply load reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. There are short - term opportunities for selling put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 30, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 7 [2]. - **Device Operation**: The start - up rate was stable at 97.5%, production and sales improved slightly, and inventory was basically flat [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 10 [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber prices affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 8 [8]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at 45, and the domestic profits of EPS, PS, and ABS remained unchanged [8].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Sector - Key varieties include: SSE 50 (IH), CSI 300 (IF), CSI 500 (IC), CSI 1000 (IM) [2] - Overall market is in a bearish state, but curve structure indicates IC and IM as "Good Curve Long," while IH and IF are "Maybe Curve Long," suggesting a stronger forward contract structure [2] - Trading opportunities focus on long positions in IC and IM's forward contracts, especially supported by the spread structure [4] Group 2: Government Bond Futures Sector - Key varieties include: 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), 30-year (TL) [6] - All varieties are in a bearish state with a flat curve structure and no significant curve trading signals [6] - Lack of clear trend opportunities, but potential rebound opportunities may arise from shifts in interest rate policy [6] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - Market status is "Consolidation" with most varieties in a bearish state, but zinc (ZN) is "Maybe Curve Long" and tin (SN) is "Maybe Curve Short" [11] - Trading opportunities may arise from a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [11] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Key varieties include: Copper (CU), Aluminum (AL), Zinc (ZN), Nickel (NI), Tin (SN) [11] - Overall market is under macro demand pressure, with structural opportunities dependent on supply-demand mismatches [11] Group 5: Energy and Chemical Sector - Key varieties include: Crude Oil (SC), Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Fuel Oil (FU), Asphalt (BU), LPG (PG), Rubber (RU) [9] - Crude oil and low sulfur fuel oil are in a "Curve Long" state, while rubber is "Good Curve Short" [9] - Trading opportunities focus on long positions in crude oil-related varieties, while rubber may present short opportunities [9] Group 6: Agricultural Products Sector - Key varieties include: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [12] - Oilseed varieties show a "Maybe Curve Long" status, while corn and live pigs are "Maybe Curve Short" [12] - Trading opportunities are present in oilseed varieties, while live pigs may face short-term bearish pressure [12] Group 7: Soft Commodities and Others - Key varieties include: Cotton (CF), Sugar (SR), Pulp (SP) [13] - Sugar is in a "Curve Long" state, while cotton and pulp are in "Consolidation" [13] - Trading opportunities focus on long positions in sugar supported by its curve structure [13] Group 8: Overall Market Sentiment - Bullish opportunities are concentrated in IC/IM, iron ore, crude oil-related varieties, sugar, and oilseed products [17] - Bearish opportunities are found in government bonds, certain non-ferrous metals (tin), rubber, and live pigs [17] - The overall market sentiment is bearish, necessitating attention to policy shifts, liquidity changes, and external macro shocks [17]

港口库存高位回落， 盘面跌幅收窄 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/11/22 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 05 需求端 02 期现市场 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 | 2025 | 期初库存 | 产 量 | 进口量 | 总供应量 | 供应同比 | 国内消费量 | 出口量 | 总需求量 | 需求同比 | 期末库存 | 供需差 | 累计供需差 | 库存 /消费 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 月 | 155 | 850 | 9 5 | 947 | 4 46% . | 955 | 1 | 956 | 3 4% . | 122 | (9) | 7 4 | 12 73% . | | 2 月 | 122 | 779 | 5 6 | 835 | -0 11% . | 810 | 0 | 8 ...