图片说明： 美联储决定维持利率不变，但下调了对美国经济的看法。图为7月30日纽交所内，电视正在播放美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话。（视觉中国） 本报记者 李迅典 本报特约记者 任 重 "美国经济二季度反弹掩盖了经济放缓的底层趋势"，路透社7月30日以此为题报道称，美国二季度（4月至6月）经济增长数据严重夸大了经济健康状况。美 国商务部周三公布的数据显示，二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长3%，较一季度-0.5%的增速回升明显。美国总统特朗普在其社媒平台上称 赞这一经济数据，但路透社、美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）、《华尔街日报》等主要媒体纷纷表示，该数据可能并未准确反映经济实情，美国经济尚未脱 离困境，关税政策、"大而美"法案等因素仍让经济不断承压。GDP数据发布后的稍晚些时候，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之 间不变，并表示该决定是基于美国经济前景不确定性升高。 "经济仍在挣扎" 多家媒体分析称，进口下降是GDP数据上升的主要原因。受美国关税政策影响，一些企业在一季度提前进口囤货以规避冲击，拖累了数据增长。但企业在二 季度倾向消耗现有库存而非增加进口，从而提升了GDP数据。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second quarter economic growth data in the U.S. is seen as overstated, masking underlying trends of economic slowdown, with various media outlets suggesting that the economy remains under pressure from tariffs and other policies [1][3][4]. Economic Growth Analysis - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2, a significant rebound from a contraction of -0.5% in Q1 [1]. - The increase in GDP is primarily attributed to a decline in imports, as businesses opted to deplete existing inventories rather than increase imports, which positively impacted GDP calculations [3]. - The final sales to domestic purchasers, a key indicator of economic health, only grew by 1.2%, marking the weakest performance since Q4 2022 [3]. Investment and Consumer Spending - Business investment in equipment slowed from 23.7% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2, indicating a cautious approach from companies amid economic uncertainty [3]. - Analysts suggest that the real economic growth rate for the first half of the year is only 1.25%, down from 2.3% in the same period last year, highlighting a significant slowdown [4]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, reflecting caution due to economic uncertainties stemming from government policies [5]. - The Fed's recent statements indicate a more cautious outlook on economic growth, acknowledging that recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity [5]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The upcoming week is critical for the U.S. and global economy, with significant economic data releases and corporate earnings reports expected [7]. - The core issue remains the ongoing tariff negotiations, which will significantly influence global trade dynamics in the second half of the year [8].

据荷兰中央统计局公布数据，2025年第二季度，荷兰国内生产总值同比增长 1.5%，环比增长0.1%，这主要得益于投资和政府消费。其中，政府消费同比增 长2.8%，居民消费增长1.0%，投资增长2.5%，出口增长2.2%，进口增幅更为 强劲，达到3.7%。 （原标题：荷兰2025年第二季度经济同比增长1.5%） ...

货币政策不确定性增加 欧洲央行近日宣布维持三大关键利率不变，是去年6月启动降息周期以来首次按兵不动。观察人士认 为，鉴于全球贸易局势动荡，欧洲央行将依据外部环境发展和欧美贸易协议后续进展作出调整决定。 欧洲央行在一份声明中指出，欧元区通胀率已达到2%的中期目标，同时今年前几个月的经济增长优于 预期，说明欧洲经济具有韧性，但全球贸易环境仍然呈现高度不确定性。 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，欧元区制造业和服务业当前总体呈现温和上行趋势。劳动力市场和居民收入 数据向好对消费形成支撑，前期降息带来的融资条件逐步宽松也将促进内需增长。此外，欧盟和一些成 员国增加对国防和基础设施的公共投资，也将助力经济增长。 欧盟统计局7月30日公布的初步数据显示，受美国关税冲击影响，今年第二季度欧元区国内生产总值 （GDP）环比增长0.1%，较一季度有所放缓。分析人士指出，按照近日欧盟与美国达成的新贸易协 议，欧盟对美大部分出口将面临高关税，同时欧盟增加对美投资和能源采购，将导致自身产业竞争力削 弱和就业岗位减少，给经济增长带来制约，欧元区刚有起色的经济复苏恐难持续。 关税重压下增长乏力 欧元区经济二季度0.1%的环比增幅，创下2024年年 ...

2025年第二季澳门生产总值修订后的详细结果将于2025年8月15日公布。 采写：南都N视频记者李敏谊 7月31日，南都N视频记者从澳门统计暨普查局获悉，受惠于一系列吸引旅客的措施，今年第二季度访 澳旅客录得近两成的升幅，带动服务出口明显回升，整体服务出口按年上升5.8%，加上当地私人消费 继续保持稳定，令澳门经济恢复正增长。2025年澳门第二季生产总值的初步数值为1003.8亿澳门元，按 年实质增长5.1%，整体经济规模恢复至2019年同期的88.8%。 今年上半年本地生产总值的初步数值为2001.4亿澳门元，按年实质上升1.8%，经济总量恢复至2019年同 期的87.0%。 ...

南方财经记者冯玉怡 珠海报道 外贸方面，上半年珠海外贸进出口总额1682.65亿元，同比增长8.9%，规模创历史同期新高。其中，出 口总额1154.17亿元，增长4.7%；进口总额528.48亿元，增长19.5%。 7月31日，珠海市统计局发布上半年经济"成绩单"。上半年，珠海地区生产总值2243.65亿元，同比增长 3.8%。其中，第一产业增加值30.04亿元，增长3.7%；第二产业增加值917.55亿元，下降1.3%；第三产 业增加值1296.06亿元，增长7.4%。 投资方面，上半年珠海固定资产投资同比下降38.4%，降幅较一季度收窄2.1个百分点。分投资领域看， 工业投资下降28.0%，降幅收窄18.6个百分点。其中，工业技改投资增长10.3%，增速提升4.7个百分 点。基础设施投资下降40.6%，降幅收窄5.4个百分点。房地产开发投资同比下降42.1%。 上半年，珠海工业生产稳中有进，重点产业增势较好。全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.5%，增速 较一季度提升0.7个百分点。全市"4+3"产业增加值增长7.2%。其中，高端装备制造、集成电路、新能 源、新一代信息技术分别增长17.9%、16.4%、1 ...

南非央行声明：我们预计未来几年经济增长将温和上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with a significant reduction in the market's expectation for a rate cut in September from 65% to below 50% [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve's decision was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the chair's decision [4]. - The meeting statement included new language indicating "economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year," reflecting concerns about growth momentum [4]. - There is a shift in focus from solely inflation to also considering employment market risks, suggesting that if employment deteriorates, the Fed may prioritize action [4][8]. Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - The potential for a rate cut in September will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment [7]. - If inflation data shows an increase due to tariffs or rising import prices, it could delay any rate cuts [7]. - The current unemployment rate is stable, but weak corporate investment and reduced immigration could lead to job market deterioration, with a threshold of 4.5% unemployment potentially triggering a rate cut [7]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the Fed's meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the annual expected rate cuts revised from 2.2 to 1.8 times [8]. - The risk of "moderate stagflation" in the U.S. economy is rising, with second-quarter real private consumption growth at only 1.2% and weak corporate capital expenditures [8]. - Short-term market volatility increased, with declines in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a stronger dollar, reflecting the market's absorption of the Fed's hawkish signals [10]. Group 4: External Variables - Political pressure from former President Trump on Fed Chair Powell regarding rate cuts poses a challenge to the Fed's independence [10]. - Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico, could impact inflation risks if tariffs are escalated [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's economy showed a steady expansion in Q2 2025, with a real GDP growth of 3.1% year-on-year, slightly up from 3% in Q1 2025 [1] Economic Performance - The seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.4% from Q1 to Q2 2025 [1] - Private consumption expenditure rose by 1.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, recovering from a decline of 1.2% in Q1 2025 [1] Contributing Factors - Strong export performance and improved local demand supported the economic growth in Q2 2025 [1] - External demand remained robust, with overall merchandise exports accelerating [1] - The tourism sector saw significant growth, alongside increased cross-border transportation and active financial services due to a thriving stock market [1] Future Outlook - The steady growth of the economy in mainland China and various government measures to boost consumer sentiment, attract investment, and diversify markets are expected to provide solid support for Hong Kong's economy [1] - However, high uncertainty in the external environment may impact future economic performance [1]

新华财经香港7月31日电（记者林迎楠）香港特区政府统计处31日发布的2025年二季度本地生产总值预 先估计数字显示，二季度香港实质本地生产总值同比增长3.1%，略高于一季度增幅。 按本地生产总值各个主要组成部分分析，私人消费开支二季度同比实质上升1.9%；按国民经济核算定 义计算的政府消费开支同比上升2.5%；本地固定资本形成总额同比上升2.9%。香港特区政府发言人指 出，受本地消费市场回稳所支持，私人消费开支在连续四季下跌后恢复温和增长。同时，整体投资开支 随着经济扩张而进一步上升。 同期，按国民经济核算定义计算，货品出口总额同比上升11.5%，货品进口同比提升12.7%。发言人表 示，按主要开支组成部分分析，外部需求表现强韧，加上美国关税措施暂时有所缓和带动"抢出口"效 应，整体货物出口增长加快。 此外，服务输出二季度同比上升7.5%；服务输入同比上升7.0%。发言人提到，受惠于访港旅游业强劲 增长、跨境运输量进一步扩张，以及金融及相关商业服务活动在本地股市畅旺下表现活跃，服务输出继 续显著扩张。 展望未来，发言人指出，亚洲尤其是内地经济持续稳步增长，加上政府多项提振消费气氛、吸引投资、 开拓多元化市场以 ...