文/国务院发展研究中心研究员 张立群 经 济 增 长 过 程 也 是 总 供 给与 总 需 求 紧密 联系 、 互为 条 件 、 矛 盾 运 动 的 过 程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失 衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的失衡；增速 过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。当前我国经 济增速已偏离合理区间较多，供大于求的宏观经济总量失衡较为严重。市 场引导的需求收缩力度已很大 合理经济增长率与宏观经济总量平衡 经济增长过程也是总供给与总需求紧密联系、互为条件、矛盾运动的过程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间 过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的 失衡；增速过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。 在市场调节条件下，供求总量失衡和经济增速偏离合理区间后会出现自我加速趋势。市场供求调节机制 会使宏观经济总量失衡持续加剧，使经济增速加快偏离合理区间，这也表现为经济增长的大起大落。对 市场机制可能引发的这一严重问题，必须依靠政府的科学宏观调控，必须及时加强宏观政策逆周期调 节，及时扭转市场引导 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the unpredictability of Trump's policies and their impact on the U.S. economy, suggesting that his approach of externalizing internal issues does not address the root problems of the economy [1] - It highlights that the driving force behind the U.S. economy is internal innovation rather than external factors, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation for sustained economic growth [2][5] - The article outlines the historical economic growth cycles in the U.S., noting a significant decline in total factor productivity growth since the 1970s, which has contributed to the erosion of the "American Dream" [5][6] Group 2 - The article explains the "tunnel effect" in social psychology, where economic stagnation exacerbates social tensions, leading to a perception of inequality and frustration among the lower classes [6][11] - It argues that the U.S. economy is currently facing a bottleneck due to over-saturation in the market and the offshoring of manufacturing jobs, which has resulted in a decline in domestic job opportunities [7][8] - The transition from an industrial to a service-based economy has not yielded the same level of technological advancement as previous industrial revolutions, raising questions about the overall impact on economic growth [8][9] Group 3 - The article points out that despite the rise of the internet economy, the overall contribution to productivity growth has been limited, with many innovations not translating into significant economic benefits for the majority [9][10] - It discusses the phenomenon of "jobless growth," where technological advancements do not create proportional job opportunities, particularly for lower-skilled workers [10][11] - The concentration of wealth among a small number of individuals due to globalization and capital-intensive industries has led to increased inequality and reduced opportunities for the average worker [11][12] Group 4 - The article suggests that revitalizing innovation is crucial for economic recovery, proposing policies such as a super tax rate to address inequality and improve public services [12][13] - It critiques Trump's policies as failing to address the deeper structural issues in the economy, arguing that they may hinder long-term growth and innovation [12][13] - The need for structural reforms is emphasized, as avoiding necessary changes could lead to greater long-term costs, particularly for the most vulnerable populations [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration on inflation and economic stability, as articulated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a Senate hearing [2] - Powell indicated that while tariffs might cause a one-time increase in prices, the long-term inflation risks should not be overlooked, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach to maintain price stability and economic health [2] - The actual impact of tariffs on prices could exceed expectations, depending on the scale, implementation, and market reactions, suggesting that the Federal Reserve must manage these risks carefully [2] Group 2 - In the gold market, prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the current price at $3331.27 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The gold price opened at $3332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3339.76 and a low of $3328.99 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to face resistance below $3342.00 and support above $3311.00, with potential targets for downward movement set between $3316.00 and $3301.00 [3]

国家发改委：有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低 推动经济持续健康发展 智通财经6月26日电，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超在6月份新闻发布会上表示，当前，外部环 境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所增加，全球经贸稳定增长面临挑战，这些都会影响我经济平稳运 行。但更要看到，近期世界银行、经合组织（OECD）分别将全球经济增长预测下调0.4个和0.2个百分 点，而对中国经济增长预测维持总体稳定，德意志银行、摩根士丹利、高盛等国际投行纷纷上调我国经 济预测。随着存量政策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施，我们有信心、有能力把外部冲击的 不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经济持续健康发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. State Department issued a travel warning for India, highlighting safety concerns, particularly for women travelers, and suggesting that the warning reflects broader issues regarding India's safety and international standing [1][4][5]. Group 1: Travel Warning Details - The travel warning emphasizes the prevalence of violent crimes, including sexual assault, in India, particularly in tourist areas [1]. - It advises U.S. citizens to avoid certain regions, such as Jammu and Kashmir, due to terrorism and civil unrest risks [1]. - The warning also includes specific legal advice regarding the carrying of electronic devices, which could lead to severe penalties [1]. Group 2: Indian Government Response - Indian officials have criticized the U.S. warning as an insult to the country, suggesting it undermines India's international reputation [3][4]. - The former Deputy Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh interpreted the warning as a direct attack on the Modi government's ability to maintain law and order [4]. - Some Indian officials argue that the U.S. is motivated by jealousy over India's economic growth and should focus on its domestic issues instead [4]. Group 3: Tourism Industry Insights - India is becoming a popular global tourist destination, with projections indicating significant contributions to the economy from tourism in the coming years [4]. - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts that tourism will contribute approximately 21.15 trillion Indian Rupees (about 1.76 trillion RMB) to India's economy in 2024, marking a 21% increase from 2019 [4]. - International tourist spending is expected to rise over 17%, reaching 2.85 trillion Indian Rupees (approximately 237.75 billion RMB) [4]. Group 4: Safety Concerns for Tourists - Safety issues, particularly for female travelers, remain a significant concern, with numerous international advisories warning against travel to India [5]. - Data from the National Crime Records Bureau indicates a troubling increase in reported rape cases in India, with over 31,516 cases recorded in 2023 alone [5]. - A 2018 survey identified India as one of the most dangerous countries for women, further complicating its tourism appeal [5].

在多位美联储官员发表"鸽派"讲话后，美债市场交易员正加速押注10年期美债收益率将跌至4%。 美联储的降息路径突生变数。 在美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会听证会后，华尔街对美联储的降息预期出现了重大转变。据最新消息，摩根士丹 利预计美联储将在2026年七次降息，从3月开始，最终利率料达到2.5%～2.75%。 目前掉期市场预计，美联储7月降息概率从接近0的水平提升至40%，预计今年剩余四次会议的总降息幅度也从 一周前的45个基点升至60个基点。 据德意志银行的最新报告，当前美联储内部的分歧程度已创下十年新高，这是因为美联储官员们在如何平衡通 胀控制与经济增长之间存在根本性分歧。分析称，这使得美联储未来的降息路径存在较大的变数。 交易员大举押注 最新数据显示，仅在上周五和周一两日，交易员就投入至少3800万美元，购买8月到期的10年期美债看涨期 权，押注收益率从当前约4.3%降至4%，这也是今年4月以来的最低水平。 近日，美联储理事沃勒、美联储副主席鲍曼陆续表态，暗示最早可能在7月降息。鲍威尔在周二的国会听证会 上也表示，不排除7月降息的可能。 鲍威尔还表示，数据表明，至少某些行业的关税将冲击到美国消费者。他说："在6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have intensified, with mixed signals from officials about the timing and necessity of potential rate cuts in July, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed officials Bowman and Waller have indicated that a rate cut could be considered as early as July, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the need to support economic growth [2][3]. - Waller believes that the labor market's weakness may justify a July rate cut, while Bowman supports a cut if inflation continues to decline [2][3]. - Other officials, such as Barr and Williams, express caution, highlighting the potential for tariffs to exert upward pressure on inflation and suggesting that the Fed should wait for further economic developments before acting [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic data shows that inflation has remained moderate, but there are concerns that core prices may rebound in the second half of the year, alongside a slight increase in unemployment rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that significant triggers for a rate cut could include rapid deterioration in consumer and employment data, as well as risks in corporate bonds [5][6]. - The economic growth forecast for the U.S. is projected to slow to around 1% this year, with inflation expected to rise to 3% [11][12]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Market expectations for a July rate cut are polarized, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a forecast for two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [14]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP growth and inflation is significant, with estimates suggesting a 2.2% decline in GDP growth by 2025 if tariffs are fully implemented [14]. - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed may complicate the decision-making process, forcing the Fed into a challenging position regarding rate cuts and inflation management [6][14].

美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日的讲话，揭示了美国经济当前所面临的微妙转向：一方面是持续的价格压力，另一方面却是增长动能 的显著削弱。在他看来，贸易政策所引发的结构性冲击已开始对经济形成双重压制——既推高了成本，也削弱了劳动力供给和消费支 出。尤其是在特朗普政府维持高关税政策背景下，市场对"滞胀"风险的担忧已不再只是学术层面的猜测。 威廉姆斯预测，今年美国GDP增长将放缓至1%左右，失业率也将从当前的4.2%上升至4.5%。这对一个刚从疫情冲击中走出的经济体而言 无疑是一种警告信号。过去两年，美国经济的复苏更多得益于消费支出的强劲反弹和就业市场的快速修复，而如今这些支撑正在逐步减 弱。他特别提到关税政策对企业成本结构的改变、对移民供给的抑制以及对投资前景不确定性的增加，这些因素都在综合作用于当前的 增长路径。 由于关税带来的成本推动效应，威廉姆斯预计通胀率将在今年上升至3%，远高于美联储2%的政策目标。尽管他表示通胀将在未来两年逐 步回落，但这一判断本身也建立在诸多前提假设之上，例如能源价格稳定、全球供应链修复以及消费预期受控。一旦任何一个变量出现 偏离，通胀回落路径可能变得更长更曲折。 DLSM外汇认为在高利 ...

自新冠疫情以来，面对飙升的通胀，全球主要央行纷纷加息，现在，它们都已经开始降息，但日本央行 一直是个"异类"。 尽管日本的整体和核心通胀率自2022年4月以来一直高于其2%的目标，且整体通胀率在今年1月达到了 4%的两年高点，但日本央行却始终按兵不动，所谓的核心通胀自2022年10月以来也一直高于目标。 自2024年3月放弃负利率政策以来的14个月里，日本央行仅加息了60个基点。在最近的6月政策会议上， 它将政策利率维持在0.5%，并表示"基础CPI通胀可能保持疲软，主要原因是经济减速。" 美联储于2022年3月进行了自2018年以来的首次加息，同年除日本央行外的所有主要央行都提高了利 率。 在日本，通胀的主要驱动力是食品价格，特别是大米价格。该国的大米价格在2024年下半年急剧上涨， 并在2025年上半年进一步加速，主要原因是2023年和2024年的收成不佳。 今年5月，大米价格飙升了101.7%，这标志着半个多世纪以来的最大涨幅。 摩根大通资产管理的全球市场策略师Marcella Chow指出，大米约占日本核心通胀的一半，未来的通胀 趋势在很大程度上依赖于食品价格，尤其是大米。 暂时性的大米价格飙升？ 但 ...

泰国央行：若经济增长低于预期，将考虑降息。 ...