Core Insights - Kazakhstan's economy attracted a total of 439.7 billion USD in foreign direct investment from 2005 to September 2025 [1] - In the first nine months of 2025, Kazakhstan attracted 14.9 billion USD in foreign direct investment, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [1] - The government aims to double economic growth by 2029, which requires attracting at least 150 billion USD in foreign direct investment and increasing the share of fixed asset investment in GDP to 23% by 2029 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific investment recommendations for different asset classes in January [9][12][69]. Report's Core View - After the Fed's rate cut in December, the market shifted its focus to re - pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity. The domestic policy expectations in China are positive. In January, it is recommended to balance the allocation and seize structural opportunities. Long - term overweight is suggested for equities and non - ferrous metals, while precious metals should be treated with caution regarding volatility and can be re - weighted after volatility stabilizes [2][3][69]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. December Review of Major Assets - The macro theme of global major assets in December shifted from a single monetary policy expectation to structural pricing and capital transaction - driven scenarios under risk appetite recovery. Asset performance showed divergence [15]. - In the equity market, A - shares performed well, with small and medium - sized stocks and growth styles outperforming large - cap indices. Overseas, US equity indices were nearly flat [16]. - In the bond market, government bonds and US Treasuries performed weakly, with yields rising [17]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index weakened, the RMB was relatively strong, and the Japanese yen declined after the Bank of Japan's rate hike [18]. - In the commodity market, precious metals and new energy metals performed significantly better, base metals rose but with weaker gains, ferrous metals were generally weak, energy and chemicals were weak, and agricultural products had mixed performance [19]. 2. Macro Environment Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macro - The global PMI in November slightly declined to 50.5, but remained in the expansion range [23]. - US economic data from October - November showed weakening inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and stable consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone [24][28][29]. - Attention should be paid to the nomination of the new Fed chair. Different candidates have different policy stances, which may cause market fluctuations. The US bond market shows a "bear steepening" feature, and the US dollar is under pressure [30]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts. Japan's rate hike was not radical, and short - term liquidity may tighten slightly, but the expectation of overseas easing in 2026 remains [33]. - Non - US developed markets are stable, and emerging markets had a generally positive economic sentiment in November [34][35]. 2.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - In December, domestic macro indicators were stable. Important meetings set tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan", raising market expectations for additional policies in the first half of 2026 [36]. - The economic structure showed differentiation, with real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak, manufacturing PMI rising to the expansion zone, consumption being stable and slightly weak, and exports contributing significantly to the economy [37]. - Social financing slightly exceeded expectations, M1 data rebound did not change the trend of activating funds, PPI was on an upward trend, and core CPI unexpectedly recovered, indicating an improvement in inflation in 2026 [37][38]. 3. Outlook for Major Assets 3.1 Equity indices - In January, policy easing expectations are likely to be the main narrative in the equity market. Domestic equities may trade in a volatile but generally stronger trend. Fiscal policy may front - load in 2026, and monetary policy may ease marginally in the first half of the year, providing a window for increasing equity index allocation [41]. 3.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In January, precious metals will enter a critical phase of speculation on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold and silver are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend under the dual fiscal and monetary easing macro - backdrop. Attention should be paid to the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's policy path changes [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The macro environment is favorable, and upstream raw materials are tight, with supply disruption concerns. Although actual demand is weak, non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain a generally volatile but stronger trend, especially in the medium - to - long - term with supply remaining tight [49]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In January, ferrous metals are expected to trade in a range - bound manner. In the medium - to - long - term, "anti - involution" policies and export control measures may reshape the supply - demand balance and improve industry profits [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: In January, the crude oil sector will verify OPEC+ production cut compliance. Oil prices may oscillate in a low range. Geopolitics and supply - side factors will affect prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global oversupply assumption remains, but prices below $60 may trigger support measures [57][59]. 3.3 Bonds - Treasury bond movements in January may continue to be range - bound, with short - end performance relatively better than long - end. In the long - term, bonds have limited upside potential as inflation expectations may put pressure on medium - and long - duration bond yields [64].

Core Insights - The December private-sector payrolls from ADP reported an increase of +41K, slightly below estimates but showing a rebound from the previous month's revised figure of -29K [1][2] - The average monthly ADP jobs numbers over the past six months have been weak, averaging only +27K new hires, compared to +122K in the previous six months [2] Employment Trends - Goods-producing jobs decreased by -3K, but losses are narrowing, while services gained +44K positions, with medium-sized firms leading with +34K new hires [3] - The Education/Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, followed by Leisure/Hospitality with +24K and Trade/Transportation/Utilities with +11K, while Professional/Business Services lost -29K positions [4] Wage Growth - Average wage gains for job stayers were +4.4% and for job changers +4.6%, indicating a tight labor market, with job changers not seeing significant wage increases as typically expected [5] Market Expectations - The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is expected to show 7.6 million job openings, consistent with recent months and reflecting a high level of job insecurity among the labor force [6] - ISM Services for December is projected to decrease by 40 basis points to 52.2%, indicating economic growth, while ISM Manufacturing fell to 47.9%, suggesting economic contraction [7] - Factory Orders for October are anticipated to decline by -1.2%, aligning with the weakening employment environment indicated by ADP's Goods-producing jobs and ISM Manufacturing data [8]

Group 1 - The Indian government expects the economy to grow over 7% this fiscal year, maintaining its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally [1] - The GDP is projected to grow by 7.4% for the fiscal year ending in March, slightly below the economists' median forecast of 7.5% [1] - The nominal GDP is expected to reach approximately 357.14 trillion rupees (4 trillion USD) [1] Group 2 - Concerns arise among economists regarding the nominal GDP growth being lower than expected, indicating potential pressure on the government to cut spending to meet deficit targets [1] - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indian exports, particularly a 50% tariff on certain goods, are creating uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2] - The labor-intensive export sectors in India, such as textiles, gems, and leather products, have been significantly impacted by these tariffs [2]

Group 1 - Jilin Province's total annual electricity consumption exceeded 100 billion kilowatt-hours for the first time, reaching 101.19 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 6.49%, marking a significant milestone in the province's economic expansion [1] - The growth rates of electricity consumption by sector were as follows: primary industry 13.6%, secondary industry 4.2%, tertiary industry 10.1%, and residential use 7.5% [1] - Specific industries such as chemical raw materials and products manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, and electronic equipment manufacturing saw electricity consumption growth rates exceeding 40%, while accommodation and catering, wholesale and retail, and financial industries experienced growth rates above 10% [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, State Grid Jilin Electric Power Company has taken significant steps to ensure food security by fully electrifying 17,800 high-standard farmland wells before spring plowing [2] - The company established 571 service teams to provide on-site support, visiting over 22,400 individuals in agricultural production and identifying 6,100 potential electricity safety hazards [2] - Efforts to optimize the electricity business environment included implementing a "project leader" system to support key enterprises and major projects, completing electricity connection tasks for 576 significant projects, and reducing connection costs by 910 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Colombian National Foreign Trade Association indicates that the key to export growth in Colombia by 2026 lies in improvements in agriculture, manufacturing, and sanitary inspection capabilities [1] Group 1: Agriculture - Agricultural exports are expected to remain the main driver, particularly in the North American market, supported by tourism and consumer demand from the 2026 World Cup [1] - Potential export products include avocados, flowers, palm oil, cocoa, and beef, although some sectors face challenges due to sanitary standards and insufficient investment [1] Group 2: Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector is identified as a new growth area, with steel, paper products, soap, and food processing products highlighted as key segments [1] - There is a recommendation to stabilize markets in the US, Europe, and regional areas while accelerating expansion into emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [1] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The association warns that due to government energy transition policies, exports of mineral and energy products are expected to continue declining [1] - After reaching a peak in 2025, coffee production and prices may face a downturn in 2026 [1] - Multiple factors may lead to export growth rates lagging behind imports, potentially widening the trade deficit and diminishing the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth [1]

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事米兰：财政政策将支持今年的经济增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Richmond Fed President emphasizes the delicate balance between controlling inflation and promoting job growth, noting that while the unemployment rate remains low historically, hiring activity is currently sluggish [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Policymakers are closely monitoring both inflation and employment as they aim to achieve their dual mandate [1] - Inflation levels have been above target for nearly five years, raising concerns about the potential entrenchment of high inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The Richmond Fed President anticipates that tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks will stimulate economic growth this year [1] - With the end of the government shutdown, official data will resume publication, allowing policymakers to gain a clearer understanding of economic conditions in the coming months [1] - There is an expectation for more reliable economic data to emerge in the upcoming weeks, which will aid in deeper analysis and understanding [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy tools are categorized into general, selective, and unconventional tools, primarily aimed at regulating market liquidity, influencing interest rates, and subsequently controlling economic growth and inflation [1]. Group 1: General Monetary Policy Tools - These tools, known as the "three major weapons," affect the entire financial market, influencing overall credit scale and money supply [2]. - The reserve requirement ratio refers to the proportion of deposits that financial institutions must hold as reserves with the central bank. An increase in this ratio tightens market liquidity, while a decrease releases liquidity and lowers financing costs for businesses and households [3]. - The rediscount rate is the interest rate at which commercial banks can discount their bills with the central bank. An increase in this rate raises the financing costs for banks, leading them to tighten credit, while a decrease lowers costs and encourages lending [4]. - Open market operations involve the central bank buying and selling securities (such as government bonds) in the financial market to adjust money supply and market interest rates. Buying securities injects funds into the market, while selling them withdraws funds, thus tightening liquidity. This is the most commonly used and flexible monetary policy tool [5]. Group 2: Selective Monetary Policy Tools - These tools are more targeted, primarily regulating credit and funding flows in specific areas [6]. - Consumer credit control involves restrictions on down payment ratios and repayment terms for consumer installment purchases, thereby regulating the scale of consumer credit and influencing consumption demand [7]. - Securities market credit control adjusts the margin requirements for margin trading, controlling the scale of credit funds flowing into the securities market to prevent excessive speculation [8]. - Real estate credit control manages the down payment ratios and interest rates for real estate loans issued by financial institutions, regulating the flow of funds into the real estate market and stabilizing prices [9]. Group 3: Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools - These tools are employed when conventional tools become ineffective (e.g., when benchmark interest rates approach zero) to address special economic conditions [10]. - Quantitative easing (QE) involves the central bank purchasing large amounts of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity into the market, lowering long-term interest rates and stimulating economic recovery. Conversely, quantitative tightening (QT) involves reducing or halting reinvestment in maturing bonds or directly selling assets to withdraw liquidity from the market and tighten money supply [11]. - Forward guidance is a strategy where the central bank publicly communicates the future direction of monetary policy (e.g., maintaining interest rates for a certain period) to guide market expectations and stabilize investment and consumption behaviors of economic entities [12].

格隆汇1月5日｜Tikehau Capital市场策略总监Raphael Thuin在报告中指出，市场对美国罢黜委内瑞拉总 统马杜罗的反应相对冷静，这反映了近年来投资者的一种趋势：即在很大程度上忽略地缘政治的不确定 性。Thuin表示，近年来投资者已学会跳出地缘政治风险，将注意力集中在经济增长、通胀和企业盈利 等基本面驱动因素上，"委内瑞拉最近的事态发展似乎就符合这一模式"。他认为，委内瑞拉对全球的影 响有限，且跨国公司在该国的风险敞口相对较小。他指出，更广泛市场的长期前景可能不会受到影响， 但政权更迭确实会引入新的不确定性。Tikehau将密切关注任何溢出效应或地缘政治紧张局势升级的迹 象。 ...