Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments to align with domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of monetary measures [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting acknowledges the complex external environment, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while recognizing the steady progress of China's economy despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][3] - The PBOC calls for large banks to play a key role in supporting the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and strengthen capital [3] - The meeting stresses the need for effective implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [3][4] Group 3 - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of aligning monetary policy with the goals of high-quality development and the new development paradigm, focusing on domestic circulation and balancing supply and demand [4] - The meeting underlines the necessity of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stimulate domestic demand and consolidate economic recovery [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and address challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [5][9]. Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments, shifting from "maintaining" to "promoting" economic stability and reasonable price levels [5][7]. - The central bank aims to strengthen monetary policy regulation, improve its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, and flexibly adjust the intensity and pace of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic conditions [7][9]. Capital Market - The meeting reiterated the need to "maintain capital market stability" and proposed utilizing securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities, as well as stock repurchase and increased loans, to explore normalized institutional arrangements [5][10]. Economic Indicators - Since July, various economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics have underperformed market expectations, prompting the central bank to adapt its policies accordingly [7]. - The external constraints on China's monetary policy have diminished following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut [7]. Interest Rates - The meeting suggested reinforcing the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improving the market-based interest rate transmission mechanism to lower overall financing costs [7][8]. Stability Measures - The meeting called for maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize expectations [9]. - It emphasized the need to monitor long-term yield changes in the bond market and prevent capital turnover risks [9]. Real Estate Market - The meeting stressed the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and ensuring the effective implementation of existing financial policies [10]. Financial Services - Large banks are encouraged to play a leading role in providing financial services to the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and enhance capital strength [10].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The PBOC has increased macroeconomic regulation efforts this year, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and support the real economy [1]. - The loan market quotation rate reform is showing continued effectiveness, with social financing costs at historically low levels [1]. - The external economic environment is becoming more complex, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while domestic economic performance shows steady improvement despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand [1][2]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The meeting suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation, enhancing its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, and ensuring that monetary policy measures align with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. - There is a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth targets [2]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [2][3]. Group 3: Support for Key Sectors - The meeting highlights the importance of supporting small and micro enterprises, promoting financial services for the private economy, and addressing financing bottlenecks for these businesses [3]. - There is a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market by improving financial systems and revitalizing existing properties and land [3]. - The PBOC emphasizes the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies to enhance domestic circulation and stimulate demand, ensuring a stable economic recovery [3].

巴西财政部长费尔南多·阿达与农业界的沟通渠道仍在运作。他近期多次强调，政府愿意倾听各方意 见，寻求兼顾财政责任与行业发展的方案。 巴西议会农业阵线（FPA）也在积极与政府沟通。FPA主席、国会议员佩德罗·卢皮恩（Pedro Lupion） 说："我们与财政部进行了良好的谈话，谈判没有陷入僵局。" 新华财经圣保罗9月26日电（记者杨家和）在巴西财政政策调整和经济复苏进程中，政府与农业部门的 关系正因一项金融税收提案而面临考验。财政部近期提出对农业信贷票据（LCA）征收更高税率的主 张，在国会引发强烈反响。农业派系担心此举将增加生产成本，削弱行业融资能力，而财政当局则强调 该措施有助于提高税制公平性和稳定公共财政。 农业信贷票据是巴西农业融资的重要工具。根据官方数据，该机制在近年来为农户和企业筹集了数百亿 雷亚尔资金，是支持生产链扩张和出口的重要金融支柱。财政部提出的税收调整，则旨在缩小不同投资 产品之间的税收差异，并为联邦政府弥补财政缺口创造条件。 然而，国会农业派系迅速表态反对。多名议员指出，提高LCA税率不仅会抑制市场需求，还可能削弱巴 西在全球农产品市场的竞争力。业内人士认为，在国际粮食价格波动和国内生产 ...

Economic Performance - The UK economy stagnated in July, highlighting challenges for the government in promoting growth and repairing public finances ahead of the high-risk budget in November [1] - Manufacturing decline offset growth in services and construction, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Economic growth rate slowed from 0.3% in the three months to June to 0.2% in the three months to July [1] Government Response - The Treasury acknowledged the need for more work to stimulate economic growth, indicating that while the economy has not collapsed, it feels stuck [1] - A new "Budget Committee" has been established by Starmer to coordinate efforts between Downing Street and the Treasury ahead of the budget release on November 26 [1] - The government claims to be making progress in reversing the investment shortfalls from previous Conservative administrations [1] Fiscal Challenges - Economists predict that Reeves will be forced to increase taxes in the budget, with estimates suggesting the government may need to raise over £20 billion to fill fiscal gaps [2] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 4% during the upcoming meeting, having cut rates five times since summer 2024 [2] - July's inflation rate was reported at 3.8%, significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2%, with signs of a deteriorating labor market [2]

OECD还指出，尽管二十国集团整体通胀率今年将放缓至3.4%，明年降至2.9%，但部分国家的通胀放缓 似乎陷入停滞。 反对党保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克表示，经合组织报告"是对斯塔默软弱的经济管理的严厉评判"。英国 央行行长贝利在本月央行会议后致里夫斯的信中指责政府助长了近期通胀上升。贝利表示，控制劳动力 成本上升的努力"似乎被延迟"，原因是去年10月预算中规定的雇主国民保险缴款增加250亿英镑以及最 低工资大幅提高。 OECD报告表示，英美家庭通胀预期仍处于"历史高位"，工资增速持续快于官方通胀目标。11月增税前 景叠加贸易成本上升和持续政策不确定性，将拖累需求。该组织预测英国央行明年还将两次降息，使借 贷成本降至3.5%，这将是2023年初以来最低水平。 OECD数据还显示，英国通胀率2026年将放缓至2.7%，在七国集团中仅次于美国位居第二。根据 Consensus Economics汇编的数据，OECD的通胀预测与经济学家对2025年3.4%和2026年2.6%的预期基本 一致。 英《金融时报》9月23日消息，经合组织（OECD）周二预测，英国2025年通胀率预计为3.5%，高于去 年的2.5%，且到20 ...

All right. Uh let's uh let's move on to the broader markets. The S&P 500 is pacing for what would be at least if it maintained what it's doing right now, a third straight day of declining.Still, although we're very close to record levels, joining us with his outlook is Michael Caneritz. He's Piper Sandler's chief investment strategist. Nice to have you here, Michael.Thanks. Uh you write um that you expect improving EPS breath to take over after three years of PE expansion. Can you explain what that means an ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the second quarter, driven by a significant upward revision in consumer spending data [1][2]. Economic Growth - Consumer spending, a key engine of economic growth, was revised up from 1.6% to 2.5%, becoming the main driver of the data revision [4][9]. - The second quarter's actual GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was 3.8%, exceeding expectations of 3.3% [8]. - Non-residential investment growth was revised up from 5.7% to 7.3%, indicating strong corporate investment sentiment [9]. - Residential investment saw a slight downward revision, with the contraction increasing from 4.7% to 5.1% [9]. - Gross Domestic Income (GDI) growth was revised down from 4.8% to 3.8%, aligning with GDP growth [9]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index annualized quarter-on-quarter growth was revised up to 2.6% for the second quarter, with expectations of near 3% year-on-year growth in the upcoming August PCE data [14]. - Persistent inflation pressures may constrain the Federal Reserve's decision-making, potentially limiting the extent of future interest rate cuts [14]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures experienced a slight decline, with the Nasdaq 100 index dropping by 0.6% [15]. - The U.S. dollar index rose approximately 20 points, currently reported at 98.10 [16]. - Spot gold prices fell by about $8, currently at $3746.41 per ounce [19].

Core Viewpoint - The correlation between stock and bond returns is a crucial factor in constructing multi-asset portfolios, with a specific focus on the "82 portfolio" consisting of 80% investment in the China Bond - National Debt Total Wealth Index and 20% in the CSI A500 Total Return Index [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Studying Stock-Bond Return Correlation - The correlation between stock and bond returns is essential for multi-asset portfolio construction, influencing expected returns and risk management [3]. - A Monte Carlo simulation of 100,000 paths over 120 months indicates that if the stock-bond return correlation increases from -0.6 to 0, the portfolio's volatility will rise from 3.15% to 4.35% [4][7]. - The Value at Risk (VaR) at a 95% confidence level will decrease from 2.72% to 2.02%, while the maximum drawdown over 12 months will increase from -4.80% to -5.72% [4][7]. Group 2: Periodicity of Stock-Bond Return Correlation - The stock-bond return correlation in China has shown significant periodic characteristics since 2010, with an overall upward trend from Q2 2022 to the present [12][13]. - The correlation has fluctuated, showing an upward trend from Q1 2010 to Q2 2017, a downward trend from Q3 2017 to Q1 2022, and a renewed upward trend since Q2 2022 [12][13]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Correlation - Economic growth and inflation are the two core factors affecting stock and bond returns, with growth having an inverse effect and inflation having a direct effect on both [18][19]. - The relationship can be expressed through a formula that incorporates growth and inflation factors, indicating that the stock and bond returns are influenced by these macroeconomic variables [19][20]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Future Predictions - The expected stock-bond return correlation for the period from September to November 2025 is projected to range between -0.216 and -0.229, indicating a continued upward trend [5][26]. - For managing maximum drawdown and volatility, a stock allocation of only 3% to 5% may be advisable, with a critical threshold for stock allocation between 18% and 21% [27][8].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The latest GDP data for Q2 2025 shows significant economic performance among the world's major economies: the US, EU, and China [1][2][4] - GDP is a crucial indicator of economic health, reflecting the total market value of all final products and services produced in a region [1] Group 2: United States Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, the US GDP reached $7.18 trillion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7%, up from 2.3% in Q1 [2][4] - The growth was primarily driven by a 3.1% increase in personal consumption expenditures and a 5.2% rise in business investment [4] - Challenges include inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with a CPI increase of 2.7% year-on-year in June 2025, and a 1.2% decline in residential investment due to high mortgage costs [4] Group 3: European Union Economic Performance - The EU's GDP for Q2 2025 was approximately €4.92 trillion (about $5.38 trillion), with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [4][5] - Economic growth varied among member states, with Germany's GDP growing only 0.1%, while Spain showed stronger growth at 0.6% [5] - The European Central Bank has lowered interest rates to support economic activity, indicating a cautious recovery [5] Group 4: China's Economic Performance - China's GDP for Q2 2025 was ¥33.81 trillion (approximately $4.66 trillion), with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, up from 5.0% in Q1 [6] - Key growth drivers included a 4.8% increase in retail sales, stable industrial production growth of 5.7%, and a 5.6% increase in the service sector [6] - Challenges include a 10.1% decline in real estate investment and ongoing employment pressures, with an urban unemployment rate of 5.0% [6] Group 5: Comparative Analysis - The absolute GDP figures show the US as the largest economy at $7.18 trillion, followed by the EU at $5.38 trillion and China at $4.66 trillion [7] - In terms of growth rates, China's 5.3% year-on-year growth outpaces the US's 2.7% and the EU's 1.2% [9] - Each economy faces unique challenges: the US contends with inflation and a weak housing market, the EU grapples with structural reforms and geopolitical risks, while China deals with real estate adjustments and employment issues [9]