与此同时，经济学家们预计就业增长将保持疲软，预计月均新增非农就业人数将为5.8万人，低于10月 份调查的6万人。他们还预测，2026年月均新增非农就业就人数将为6.4万人，低于10月份调查预测的7.5 万人。失业率将在2026年初升至4.5%，并在全年维持这一水平。 就美联储的利率路径而言，预计12月实施25个基点的降息，2026年仅再降息50个基点，使政策利率更接 近中性水平。 这项调查发布之际，美国经济第二季度年化增长率为3.8%，为2023年第三季度以来的最快增速。11月 19日，亚特兰大联储将第三季度实际GDP增长预期从之前的4.1%上调至4.2%。 全美商业经济协会（NABE）的一项新调查显示，2026年美国经济预计将温和增长，但就业岗位创造预 计将持续疲软。 这项调查于11月3日至11日开展，涵盖42位专业预测人士。对2026年经济增长的中值预期为2%，高于10 月上一轮调查的1.8%。路透社报道称，这与6月调查中1.3%的增速预测形成鲜明对比。 经济增长预计将受到更强劲的消费支出和企业投资支撑，不过特朗普政府的新进口关税可能会削减0.25 个百分点甚至更多的增长。经济学家还指出，更严格的移民执法 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly refuted recession concerns, expressing strong confidence in the economic outlook and depicting a robust growth scenario for the future [1][2]. Economic Growth and Legislative Impact - Bessent attributed his optimistic forecast largely to a significant bill passed in July, which includes various stimulus measures such as substantial tax cuts and tax credits for auto loan interest income [2]. - He highlighted that due to this legislation, working families are expected to receive substantial tax refunds in the first quarter of next year, which will directly increase household disposable income and effectively stimulate consumer market growth [4]. Trade Agreements and External Stability - The government’s efforts in achieving multiple trade agreements and international peace accords are expected to provide a stable external environment for economic development [4]. Current Economic Challenges - Bessent acknowledged existing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and certain interest-sensitive industries that are currently stagnant [5]. - He clarified that the weakness in these sectors is localized and not indicative of a broader economic crisis [7]. Inflation and Tariff Analysis - On inflation and tariffs, Bessent noted that recent price increases are primarily driven by the service sector, particularly rising labor costs, while inflation levels for imported goods remain stable [7]. - He explained the recent decision to eliminate tariffs on over 200 food items, including coffee, tea, and beef, as a result of trade negotiations with Latin American countries, aimed at enhancing trade relations rather than responding to inflationary pressures [7]. Government Operations and Public Confidence - Bessent mentioned the significant negative impact of previous government shutdowns on the US GDP [8]. - He announced an upcoming initiative aimed at reducing health insurance premiums, which is seen as a measure to stabilize living conditions for the public [9]. - The coordinated messaging from economic leaders follows recent electoral setbacks for their party, aiming to reassure the market and public regarding the economic outlook [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet stated that there is no risk of recession in 2026 and expressed optimism about the economic benefits of the Trump administration's trade and tax policies [1] - The "Great Beautiful Act," a large spending plan by the Republican Party, is still being implemented, and its economic effects have not fully materialized [1] - The new law makes the tax cuts from Trump's 2017 policy permanent and provides subsidies for seniors to offset Social Security taxes, while also increasing the deductibility of state and local taxes [1] Group 2 - Healthcare costs are expected to become more affordable, with further announcements from the Trump administration anticipated on this topic [1] - There are signs of distress in certain sectors of the economy, particularly in housing and interest-sensitive industries, although lower energy prices are expected to help reduce inflation [1] - The Director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, indicated that economic data for the fourth quarter may show weakness due to the government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, marking the longest in U.S. history [1] Group 3 - A poll revealed that about two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration has not met expectations regarding the economy and cost of living [2] - According to a recent cost of living survey by JPMorgan, Americans' perceptions of the economy largely depend on their income levels [2] - High-income respondents had an average confidence index score of 6.2 (out of 10), while low-income consumers averaged only 4.4 [2]

来源：环球市场播报 美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特周日表示，为期 43 天的政府停摆给美国经济造成了 110 亿美元的永久性 损失，但鉴于利率回落与减税政策的推动，他对明年经济增长前景持乐观态度。 贝森特在节目中指出，美国经济中对利率敏感的领域（包括房地产行业）已陷入衰退，但他认为整体经 济暂无陷入负增长的风险。 贝森特将通胀归咎于服务型经济，而非美国总统唐纳德・特朗普大范围实施的关税政策 —— 这一观点 与特朗普政府长期以来的立场一致。他补充称，预计能源价格下跌将在更广泛范围内拉低整体物价。 近期路透社 - 益普索民意调查显示，特朗普的支持率已降至 38%，为其重返权力以来的最低水平。此 前，民主党在州和地方选举中获胜，近几周来，特朗普已将重点集中在 "可负担性" 议题上。 这位财长指出，民主党执政州的通胀率比共和党执政州高出 0.5%，并将这一差异归因于前者监管力度 的加大。 哈塞特：2026 年将是 "爆发性增长之年" 美国国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特在节目中表示，尽管受此次美国历史上最长时间政府停摆影响， 今年第四季度经济可能出现 "短暂波折"，但他预计 2026 年将成为 "绝对的爆发性增长之年"。 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in the province has been stable and progressing steadily in the first ten months of the year, with key sectors such as industry, consumption, and services showing positive developments [1][2]. Industrial Performance - The industrial economy has maintained a robust growth trend, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 6.8% year-on-year from January to October. In October alone, the growth rate was 5.8%, with high-end manufacturing sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and digital core product manufacturing growing by 8.0%, 11.7%, and 9.4% respectively, outpacing the overall growth [1]. Consumption Market - The consumption market has shown signs of recovery, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 38,816.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% from January to October. In October, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment rose by 7.4%, while sales of computers and related products surged by 48%, indicating strong demand for upgraded and digital products [2]. Service Sector - The service sector has maintained a stable development trend, with revenue from large-scale service industries increasing by 7.2% year-on-year from January to September. Notable growth was observed in residential services, repair and other services, rental and business services, and water, environment, and public facility management, with respective growth rates of 14.2%, 12.7%, and 9.7% [2]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment has seen a year-on-year decline of 8.7% from January to October; however, the investment structure has been optimizing. Significant growth was noted in infrastructure investments, particularly in the electricity and heat production and supply industry, which grew by 22.9%, and in loading, unloading, and warehousing, which increased by 27.2% [3].

Economic Outlook - The Korea Financial Institute predicts a 2.1% growth in the South Korean economy by 2026, primarily driven by a recovery in domestic demand [1] - Private consumption growth is expected to rise to 1.6%, while construction investment is forecasted to rebound from -8.9% to 2.6% [1] Export and Trade - Export growth is anticipated to decline to 0.8% due to the slowdown in global trade, leading to a narrowing of the current account surplus [1] Inflation and Prices - The consumer price inflation rate is projected to decrease to 1.8%, although uncertainties remain regarding U.S. policy direction and geopolitical risks [1] Financial Sector Challenges - The financial sector faces multiple challenges, including potential volatility in the stock market due to credit financing [1] - The banking industry may experience deterioration in soundness indicators due to pressure on net interest margins and adjustments in risk-weighted assets [1] - The insurance industry is expected to see slowed growth due to the impacts of an aging population [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell highlight a significant clash over monetary policy, with Trump's desire to dismiss Powell reflecting deeper issues regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the political pressures influencing economic decisions [2][3][19]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell is rooted in long-standing policy disagreements, particularly regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, which Trump believes are too slow and detrimental to economic growth [3][5]. - The legal framework protecting Federal Reserve officials complicates any potential dismissal, as the President can only remove them for "serious misconduct" through judicial processes, indicating that Trump's threats may be more about political pressure than actual intent [5][19]. - The internal division within the White House is notable, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advocating for stability in monetary policy, contrasting with Trump's aggressive stance [8][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding future interest rate cuts, with a recent 25 basis point cut reflecting ongoing debates about the economic outlook [13][15]. - Trump's push for rapid rate cuts conflicts with the Fed's cautious approach, as inflation pressures and a resilient job market suggest that aggressive easing could lead to negative economic consequences [15][19]. - The potential appointment of a new Fed chair aligned with Trump's views could further undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the long-term stability of U.S. monetary policy [17][19].

Group 1: Vietnam's Economic Growth - Vietnam's GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 reached 8.23%, with a target of 8% for the year [2] - The manufacturing sector is the core driver of Vietnam's rapid economic growth, with manufacturing output increasing by 9.92% year-on-year from January to September [3][5] - Vietnam's total goods import and export volume for the first nine months of 2025 reached $680.66 billion, a 17.3% increase year-on-year, with exports close to $349 billion, growing by 16% [5] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has signed a framework agreement with Vietnam regarding tariffs, reducing the average import tariff on Vietnamese goods to about 20%, which has stimulated exports [2][5] - In contrast, India's trade deficit reached a record $41.68 billion in October due to the U.S. imposing high tariffs, leading to an 11.8% decline in exports [2][11] - The U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have resulted in a significant drop in India's trade surplus with the U.S., decreasing by 54% from April to October [9][11] Group 3: Challenges Facing Vietnam and India - Despite strong economic growth, Vietnam faces challenges such as reliance on cheap labor and resources, and plans to invest in infrastructure and technology to reduce this dependency [8] - India's manufacturing sector is at a disadvantage compared to competitors like Vietnam due to the high tariffs imposed by the U.S., which have severely impacted its export capabilities [12][13] - The Indian government is implementing measures to support exporters, including over $5 billion in relief packages, while also seeking to negotiate trade agreements with multiple countries [15][18]

根据美联储最新会议纪要，决策者内部对年底是否降息存在较大的观点对立。虽然随着美国政府结束停 摆，本周四美国劳工统计局9月非农就业数据即将恢复公布，但对于金融市场来说，这份已经滞后的数 据所蕴含的价值显然已大不如前。在持续不断的关税冲击之下，贸易战对美国物价的影响正在逐步显 现。据美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）统计，8月美国的核心CPI为2.7%，前值分别为2.6%、2.5%、 2.4%和2.3%。 根据美联储现任主席鲍威尔一贯的"鹰派"立场，在其尚未离任的情况下，美联储进一步降息可能性下降 或成不争之事实。理由在于，就业、通胀和经济前景是美联储最为倚重的关键数据。由于美国经济的产 业空心化和高消费、低储蓄特征明显，所以中国生产的商品一直以来都是维持美国物价稳定的关键支 撑。 自特朗普再次入主白宫以来，即使中美贸易摩擦不断，但截至2024年底，中国仍然是美国第二大进口商 品来源国和第三大出口目的地。美国关税对美国物价和美国经济增长的影响，不仅被白宫选择性忽视， 也被严重低估了。诚如美联储副主席杰斐逊11月17日在密苏里州演讲时所称的那样，"最终实施的关税 率、传递给消费者价格的范围和时间、供应链和国内制造的反应 ...

Is there real progress in this economy right now. I know we can look at these numbers and find some modicum of stability, but is a real progress, real growth. Well, this is also a very important question remain, because if we think about what was the reason why we had a slowdown over the summer, it was likely because of the turmoil that came after Liberation Day.But Immigration Day is now eight, nine months ago, and things are gradually getting better on the trade for at least us. More clarity. And we've, o ...