美国政府"停摆"第13天 国会两党谈判僵局难破 中新社华盛顿10月13日电 (记者 陈孟统)在美国联邦政府"停摆"第13天之际，美国国会两党领袖仍对外 释放各自强硬立场，围绕医保福利开支这一核心分歧，双方均没有立场松动的迹象。 13日是美国的公共假期，但美国会众议院议长、共和党人约翰逊照常举行记者会。他抨击民主党是 在"以美国民众的营养补助为筹码，换取非法移民的医疗福利"。 美国历史上最长的一次政府"停摆"发生在特朗普第一个总统任期内。2018年末至2019年初，国会两党因 修建美墨边境墙拨款预算陷入分歧，美国政府因此"停摆"35天。 由于联邦资金中断，史密森学会日前宣布，其下属数十家博物馆、研究中心和国家动物园自12日起全部 关闭。 在停摆期间，约翰逊让众议院持续休会，取消了数周的表决，以此向民主党施压。根据议程，美国参议 院14日复会，预计当晚将就众议院此前通过的临时拨款法案举行第八次表决。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 约翰逊表示，在民主党撤回医保福利开支要求并重开政府之前，"不会进行谈判"。他还暗示，美国"正 快速走向历史上最长的政府停摆"。 "我们都清楚，在特朗普允许之前，他们(共和党人)会继续躲避，不愿 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Other varieties: No clear overall industry investment rating, but specific short - term outlooks are provided for each variety Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple futures varieties, including short - term consolidation, short - term shocks, high - level shocks, and bearish views, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand fundamentals and market news [1] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. Spot prices generally declined. National average soybean crushing profit was - 111.6196 yuan/ton, down 18.40 yuan. The basis of soybean meal 01 decreased by 30 yuan to - 12 yuan [2] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, an increase of 70.70 million tons from the week of September 26; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. US old - crop soybean inventory was 316 million bushels as of September 1, 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Brazilian soybean planting rate as of October 4, 2025, was 8.2% [3][4] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. With the harvest of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and a slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall, there is a lack of driving factors. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. National average rapeseed meal spot price remained unchanged. National average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 258.7595 yuan/ton, down 77.40 yuan [5] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.53 million tons. International rapeseed production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but demand enters the off - season [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. Trade policies and high inventories lead to a mix of long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new driving factors [1][6] Palm Oil - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 9364 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day. National average price decreased by 220 yuan to 9325 yuan/ton. Weekly commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons [7] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.65%. Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy has made new progress, which is expected to increase future demand. Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month, but it continued to accumulate inventory in September [9] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term shock. It is temporarily treated as a high - level shock market. Although future demand is expected to increase, the inventory increase in September in Malaysia has put pressure on prices [1][9] Cotton - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of cotton futures (CF2601) closed at 13300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day. Cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons [10] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries are increasing supply, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton is being continuously harvested, and the opening price is weakening. Demand is weak, with a decline in orders and operating rates, and September's foreign trade performance continued to weaken [11][12] - **Market Outlook**: Bearish. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term due to strong supply and weak demand [1][13] Jujube - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of jujube futures (CJ2601) closed at 11130 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [14] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: New - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but the decline is not as large as in 2023. After combining with carry - over inventory, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. The demand side is relatively flat [15] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure after the new fruit is listed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1][15] Live Pig - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of live pig futures (lh2511) closed at 11125 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan or 1.72% from the previous day. National average spot price of live pigs decreased by 70 yuan to 11260 yuan/ton [16] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: In the short term, supply pressure is strong, with an expected increase in planned slaughter in October. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered pigs is expected to increase. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is decreasing. After the double - festival concentrated stocking, terminal demand is declining [17] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. It is expected to continue the weak shock market, and it is recommended to continue short - allocation and reverse arbitrage, paying attention to risk control [1][18]

报道提到，贝森特同时重申此前表态，即政府"停摆"导致对农民的援助停滞，并补充说美国财政部的官方经济数据也将在政府"停摆"结束后公布。 "事态正变得严重，它正在开始影响实体经济。"贝森特在接受美国福克斯商业频道采访时说，但他没有提供更多细节。 由于两党在医保相关福利支出等方面存在分歧，美国国会参议院未能在9月30日上一财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，维持政府正常运转的资金耗尽。10 月1日起，美联邦政府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。截至10月13日，"停摆"已进入第13天。不过，共和党和民主党仍忙于互相攻讦。法新社报道，许多国会议员 期望特朗普能够介入，打破两党对峙僵局，推动政府"重新开门"。但特朗普当地时间12日启程前往中东，两党继续相互"甩锅"，同时又有一批景点开始关 闭。 【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据路透社报道，美国财政部长贝森特当地时间13日表示，随着美国政府"停摆"进入第13天，美国经济已经开始遭受影响。 路透社称，贝森特补充说，为了向美军官兵发放薪资，美国政府不得不暂停向其他联邦雇员及机构拨款。 "我们不得不调整各项安排。我们不得不让华盛顿特区及全国范围内的工作人员休假。"贝森特说。 ...

Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a significant surge during the 2025 "Double Festival" holiday, with London gold prices rising nearly $200 in a week, breaking the $4000 per ounce barrier for the first time [1][4][6] - Domestic gold prices in China also saw a sharp increase, with major brands reporting price hikes of around 46 to 50 yuan per gram compared to the end of September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of nearly 400 yuan per gram [1][7] Gold Price Surge - The price of London gold rose from $3857.83 per ounce on September 30 to $4040.42 per ounce by October 8, marking a historic breakthrough [1][4] - COMEX gold futures also saw a similar rise, increasing from $3874.3 per ounce to $4060.6 per ounce during the same period [4][6] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent surge in gold prices to factors such as increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government shutdown [3][6] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement as central banks maintain significant net purchases of gold [6][7] Stock Market Reaction - Following the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3900 points, with the precious metals sector experiencing a collective surge, with several gold-related stocks hitting their daily limit [4][6] - The overall precious metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.28% on the first trading day after the holiday [4] Consumer Behavior - The rapid increase in gold prices has led to changes in consumer purchasing behavior, with some consumers hesitant to buy at current prices, while others are considering selling their holdings [9] - Retailers are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to the market changes, with some indicating that the one-price gold jewelry may soon see a price adjustment [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to move up in the short - term with a step - up trend in the long - term. Silver prices are anchored to gold price trends. The short - term rise in gold is driven by increased short - term risk aversion, enhanced risk - hedging attributes, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The silver market shows slight increases in net long positions and ETF holdings, along with a slight decrease in visible inventories [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.84% [2]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risk aversion has increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of US economic stagflation has risen, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is being realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation have increased market uncertainty. Fed officials' warnings about the labor market and support for rate cuts, along with disappointing employment data and in - line inflation data, have strengthened the bet on further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 rate cuts this year. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, ratios, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [3][4]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange [7][8]. Key Fundamental Data - **Federal Reserve - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $66416.68 billion. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury spreads have changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There are data on US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and risk - hedging and commodity - related indices [11][13].

Group 1 - The media is criticized for sensationalism, reporting on the liquidation of long and short positions in a misleading manner during price fluctuations [1] - There is a lack of consensus among major financial institutions regarding gold price predictions, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $4,900 and Citigroup predicting a drop to $3,800, causing confusion among investors [2] - Since August 15, gold prices have risen from $3,200, showing strong upward momentum without significant pullbacks, with a potential breakthrough of $4,060 [3] Group 2 - Recent market volatility, driven by Trump's trade policies, has led to significant declines in cryptocurrencies, while gold has remained resilient, with investors increasingly bullish on gold [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and potential government shutdown are key factors influencing market sentiment, with expectations of rate cuts likely to support gold prices [3] - Current trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook for gold, with support levels identified at $4,010 and targets set between $4,060 and $4,080 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of US trade policy, weak employment market concerns, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, the US federal government shutdown crisis, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 897.74 yuan/gram, with a change of -13.64 yuan compared to the previous day and 44.84 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 71,242.00, and the open interest was 211,162.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was -117.00 yuan/ten grams, with a change of -87.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 450.00 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 605,570.00, and the open interest was 544,232.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,035.50 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 154.70 US dollars compared to the previous day and 44.40 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 273,357.00, and the open interest was 379,094.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 47.52 US dollars/ounce, with a change of -0.14 US dollars compared to the previous day and 0.65 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 141,909.00, and the open interest was 128,281.00 [1] Important Information - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed down to five, and BlackRock executive Rieder impressed Bessent. Fed Governor Waller is most worried about the employment market and is open to a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] - For the first time in modern US history, the White House "steward" announced that the Trump administration has started permanent layoffs. The release time of the US September CPI report is set for October 24, 9 days later than the interest rate decision [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly establish long positions after price pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,065 - 4,381 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 790 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 940 - 1,010 yuan/gram; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 30 - 37 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 50 - 57 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,200 - 8,500 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 13,000 - 14,800 yuan/ten grams [1]

Group 1: Political and Economic Context - Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, due to dissatisfaction with rare earth controls[1] - The geopolitical pressure on the U.S. has eased following a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Palestine conflict, allowing Trump to refocus on U.S.-China trade[1] - The U.S. government is still in a shutdown, with predictions that it may last until at least October 15, 2025, prompting Trump to shift attention to external conflicts[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, U.S. stock markets, copper, oil, and the dollar index all declined, while gold prices increased by 3.38% to $4017 per ounce[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8.70 basis points to 4.032%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 7.43 basis points to 3.501%[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively, indicating a strong market reaction to the tariff threat[2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The impact of the new tariffs on U.S.-China trade is expected to be limited due to a prior rush in trade activity earlier in the year and the upcoming seasonal slowdown[1] - Inflation risks are rising again, particularly for imported goods from China, which may complicate future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[1] - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions show a divide on future interest rate paths, with some officials concerned about persistent inflation risks[2] Group 4: Future Considerations - Attention should be paid to potential retaliatory measures from China and the escalation of trade conflicts into critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors[3] - The upcoming APEC meeting may provide a platform for high-level discussions between the U.S. and China, which could influence market sentiment[3] - Long-term, the experience from the 2018-2019 trade conflicts suggests that tariff threats will likely continue and may fluctuate[3]

当地时间9日，美国国会参议院第七次尝试表决通过临时拨款法案，但共和党和民主党分别提出的临时拨款法案草案仍然均未获通过，尽快结束政府"停 摆"的努力再次失败。 美国政府停摆进入第10天，对美国社会各方面影响已经开始显现。受影响最大的是哪些领域？美国政府关门还会持续多久？如果问题迟迟得不到解决，美国 还会受到怎样的冲击？ 民生领域受影响较大 外交学院国际关系研究所教授 李海东：民生和经济领域受到的影响尤为明显。在交通、旅游、基建等领域，美国联邦政府诸多职能"停摆"，给民众生活带 来不便。同时，联邦政府关门致使许多民众无法及时获得工资等经济收益，打击了他们的消费信心。民众支出减少，经济活力也随之降低，对经济造成了较 大冲击。 若长时间"停摆" 将产生巨大反噬效应 外交学院国际关系研究所教授 李海东：美国政府关门会持续多久，存在很强的不确定性。目前，民主党和共和党都没有表现出尽快妥协达成共识的迹象。 若因拨款问题导致政府长时间"停摆"，将在政治上产生巨大的反噬效应。越来越多的民众会对政府和建制派精英表达不满，这种不满情绪的加剧会使美国政 治朝着更强的民粹化方向发展。届时，美国国内政治暴力事件增多，这不仅会让美国自身变 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording their largest single-day drops since April 10 [5][6] - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.56% to 22,204.43 points, while the S&P 500 dropped by 2.71% to 6,552.51 points, marking a weekly decline of 2.43% for the S&P 500 and 2.53% for the Nasdaq [5][6] - Major technology stocks saw substantial losses, with the "Big Seven" tech index down by 3.65% [7] Individual Stock Performance - Notable declines in individual stocks included Tesla down over 5%, Amazon down 5.06%, and Nvidia down 4.92% [7][8] - Alibaba's stock fell by 8.45%, while other Chinese stocks like Bilibili and Baidu also experienced significant drops [9][10] Commodity Market - International oil prices saw a notable decline, with U.S. crude oil futures down 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude down nearly 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel [12] - Gold prices increased by over 1%, reaching a high of $4,022.90 per ounce [13] Government Employment and Economic Outlook - The Trump administration has begun large-scale layoffs of federal employees, with 200,000 already reduced this year and an additional 100,000 expected by year-end [17][18] - There is a growing belief among traders that the U.S. government shutdown may last until the end of October or longer, with probabilities for a shutdown exceeding 30 days increasing [18] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to consider further interest rate cuts in response to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation [18]