Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a collective drop in prices leading to widespread liquidations and panic selling among investors [2][9]. Market Performance - Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000 for the first time since June, currently priced at $101,095, reflecting a 5.03% decrease in the last 24 hours [7]. - Ethereum has dropped below $3,100, with a decline exceeding 14% [4]. - Other cryptocurrencies such as BNB, Solana, and STETH have also seen declines of over 5% [6]. Liquidation Data - Over 470,000 traders have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $2.025 billion, including $1.63 billion from long positions and $400 million from short positions [8]. - The largest single liquidation occurred on HTX-BTC [8]. Historical Context - On October 11, the cryptocurrency market faced its largest forced liquidation event, with over $19.3 billion in crypto assets liquidated and more than 1.66 million traders affected [8]. - The total market capitalization has evaporated by over $450 billion due to the recent price drops and liquidity issues [8]. External Factors - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown have added uncertainty to the cryptocurrency market [9]. - The shutdown has reached 35 days, impacting various sectors and highlighting increasing political polarization in the U.S. [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin fails to maintain the $100,000 support level, it could decline to around $72,000 [10]. - Some experts believe the current downturn may be a "washout" rather than a long-term bearish trend, indicating potential recovery for seasoned investors [10].

Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is experiencing reduced supply, which may make weaker job growth more acceptable to the Federal Reserve and others [1] - There is a potential shedding of jobs due to overhiring during the pandemic [1][3] Productivity and AI Impact - Current productivity levels are uncertain, and many companies have not seen cash flow or profit boosts from AI investments, with 80% reporting no benefits [3] - The anticipated increase in productivity from AI has not yet materialized, leading to a realization among companies that they may be overstaffed [3][4] Cost Pressures and Margins - Companies are facing margin pressures from tariffs and other costs, which may lead them to either pass on costs to customers or cut costs elsewhere [2] - The balance of risks for the Federal Reserve is challenging, with no clear advantages from AI investments yet [5][6] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve committee is currently balanced, with more hawks than doves, indicating a cautious approach to policy decisions [7][8] - The absence of timely official data on employment and consumption may not lead to a dovish bias, as the Fed seems confident in overall growth despite some negative indicators [11][12]

Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.63%, S&P 500 futures down 0.99%, and Nasdaq futures down 1.28% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.25%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.59%, France's CAC 40 down 1.19%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.07% [2] - WTI crude oil is down 1.46% at $60.16 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 1.26% at $64.07 per barrel [3] Market Sentiment - Wall Street executives warn that the stock market is "between fair and expensive," suggesting a healthy correction of over 10% is likely within the next 12 to 24 months [4] - Capital Group's CEO Mike Gitlin notes that while corporate earnings are strong, valuations are too high, indicating potential for significant sell-offs [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan calls for more aggressive rate cuts, stating current monetary policy is too restrictive [5] - Milan has previously advocated for larger rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction instead of the 25 basis points decided in recent meetings [5] Commodity Market Trends - Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen indicates that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive despite an 8% drop since reaching a record high of $4,359.40 per ounce on October 20 [6] - The recent strength of the U.S. dollar, driven by hawkish Fed statements, has pressured copper prices, which have declined from record highs [6] Debt Market Developments - Investors anticipate U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent will signal a shift towards short-term debt issuance to manage the growing debt burden [7] - The Treasury has revised its net borrowing estimate for the October to December quarter to $569 billion, down from a previous estimate of $590 billion [7] Company Performance - Tesla's October sales in China fell nearly 10% year-over-year, with major shareholders opposing Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan [8] - Palantir reported a 63% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.18 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, with net profit surging over twofold [9] - Pfizer's Q3 revenue was $16.65 billion, surpassing expectations, and the company raised its full-year earnings guidance [10] - Philips reported a 3% comparable sales growth in North America, with adjusted EBITA exceeding market expectations [11] - BP's Q3 adjusted net profit was $2.21 billion, above analyst forecasts, driven by strong refining margins [12] - Yum China reported an 8% increase in operating profit, with same-store sales growing for the 11th consecutive quarter [13]

汇通财经APP讯——周二（11月4日）亚欧交易时段，美元指数走出冲高回落走势，盘中一度短暂涨超 100整数关口，之前该指数已连续第四个交易日上涨，目前交投于99.80附近。 当前美元指数的波动，正围绕美联储政策预期、美债收益率变动及美国国内风险事件展开，多空力量的 博弈让市场情绪始终保持谨慎。 据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具数据显示，当前联邦基金期货交易者对12月美联储降息的定价概率 已降至65%，较一周前的94%大幅回落。 这一概率变化的直接诱因，是上周美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的表态——他明确指 出，12月再次降息的可能性远未确定，且强调在官方数据发布恢复前，政策制定者需维持"观望"态度。 10年期美债收益率持续异动支撑美元走强 周一市场中，10年期美国国债收益率上行2.7个基点，这一变动进一步强化了美元的利差优势，叠加鲍 威尔"12月降息非既定事实"的警告，共同为美元指数的涨势提供了延续性动力。 值得注意的是10月29日美国10年期国债收益率大涨10个基点，当天也是本次美元指数连续上涨的起点日 期。 美联储官员分歧表态或使美元指数来回拉扯 美联储谨慎预期与美债收益率助力美元多头 推动美 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations last week, closing around $3988 per ounce, indicating a high-level correction trend with increased short-term volatility [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factors driving gold price fluctuations include mixed U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals, with September core CPI growth lower than expected, while October Markit composite PMI exceeded expectations [1][2] - The U.S. government shutdown for over three weeks delayed key data releases, and a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to "AA-" by European rating agency Scope contributed to heightened market volatility and risk aversion [1] - Despite short-term volatility, the underlying logic supporting gold remains unchanged, with a stable bullish trend in the market [1] Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold Prices - Three core long-term drivers for gold's upward trend include: 1. Normalization of gold purchases by global central banks, driven by de-dollarization demands in emerging markets, providing solid bottom support for gold prices [2] 2. The current state of U.S. debt and real interest rates, where high debt levels and declining real interest rates enhance gold's appeal as an alternative reserve asset [2] 3. Global monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties, with the Fed's rate cuts prompting other central banks to follow suit, while geopolitical risks continue to inject risk premiums into the market [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market's focus for the upcoming week will be on key economic indicators such as the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI and delayed employment data, which will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations [2] - Additionally, developments in global geopolitical situations, particularly local conflicts and policy changes in major economies, will be closely monitored [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Short-term gold price support is observed in the $3950-$3970 per ounce range, with stability in this area determining the short-term trend; resistance is noted in the $4050-$4070 per ounce range [3]

第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金PPLI官网 一、近期走势分析 近期波动背景： 美联储政策压制：上周美联储释放"12月降息非板上钉钉"的鹰派信号，美元指数刷新近三个月高点（逼近100关口），直接打压黄金避险需求。 地缘与政治风险：美国政府停摆进入第34天（创历史纪录），经济数据发布受阻，市场对政策不确定性溢价增加，为金价提供底部支撑。 美联储政策预期： 市场对12月降息概率从70%降至65%，若非农数据（11月5日公布）显示就业市场韧性，鹰派预期或进一步强化，金价可能下探3900美元支撑。 美元与美债收益率： 美元走强及10年期美债收益率维持4.1%高位，压制黄金持有成本，但政府停摆可能削弱美元长期走强基础。 技术面关键位： 支撑位：3960美元（日内关键）、3900美元（中长期支撑） 阻力位：4030-4045美元（短期压力）、4080美元（突破后看4100美元） 技术面特征： 日线级别：金价围绕4000美元震荡，布林带收口，MACD死叉运行，RSI超买后回落，短期需警惕回调风险。 小时图：4小时布林带三轨放平，均线粘合，价格在3950-4045区间内震荡，关键阻力位4 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices opened lower in the Asian session on November 4, currently trading around $3980, after fluctuating near $4000 on November 3, with a low of $3963 and a high of $4030, closing at $4001.16 per ounce. Despite a 53% increase in gold prices this year, there has been a decline of over 8% since the historical peak on October 20, driven by uncertainties from the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, the U.S. government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax exemption policy [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell indicated that further cuts are not guaranteed, leading to a drop in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 100% to 65.3%, which negatively impacted non-yielding gold [3][4]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve, with a rare 10-2 vote reflecting differing views on monetary policy. Dovish members advocate for significant rate cuts, while hawkish members express concerns over persistent inflation above the 2% target [4][5]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, contributing to a rise in the dollar index, which reached a new high of 99.89, further suppressing gold prices. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, indicating continued contraction, and key labor statistics are on hold due to the shutdown [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $3925 to $4025, with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $30 to $50 [5][6]. - The daily chart shows gold prices closing with a small body, indicating a struggle to break above the $4030 resistance level, suggesting continued contention between bulls and bears within the $3920 to $4030 range [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - As of November 3, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,041.78 tons of gold, reflecting an increase of 2.58 tons from the previous trading day, amidst fluctuating gold prices around the $4,000 per ounce mark [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The current total holding of SPDR Gold Trust is 1,041.78 tons of gold [5]. - The holdings increased by 2.58 tons compared to the previous trading day [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On November 3, spot gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $4,029.39 per ounce and a low of $3,962.97 per ounce, with a trading range exceeding $60 [5]. - The closing price was $4,001.16 per ounce, down by $1.78 or 0.04% [5]. Group 3: Market Influences - The strengthening of the US dollar is pressuring gold prices, with the Federal Reserve's policy stance being a key driver for the dollar's strength [5]. - Recent adjustments in China's gold tax policy, reducing the VAT exemption from 13% to 6%, may also impact gold prices negatively [6]. - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its 33rd day, raises concerns about economic data releases and broader economic impacts, which could support gold prices in the long term [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a lack of clear directional momentum for gold, with the RSI at 51 indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified between $4,030 and $4,045, while support is seen around $3,900 [7]. - A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,973 could lead to testing the 50% retracement level at $3,850 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to significant investor anxiety, with many experiencing losses after buying at high prices, while others are considering buying at lower levels as prices drop [1][2]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations, with Shanghai gold hitting a low of 906 CNY per gram and London gold dropping to around 3962 USD per ounce, significantly down from earlier highs [1]. - The rapid price changes have left many investors in distress, particularly those who bought gold at higher prices, leading to widespread complaints about being "stuck" with their investments [1][3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The core logic behind the changing gold prices is a battle between supply and demand, as well as shifts in risk sentiment among investors [2]. - Factors such as potential global economic recovery or easing geopolitical tensions could lead to a further decline in gold prices, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to differentiate between essential purchases (like wedding jewelry) and investment opportunities, with the latter requiring careful consideration of market conditions [5]. - It is suggested that investors allocate a modest portion of their assets (no more than 10%) to gold, avoiding high-risk strategies like leverage or full investment [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks, particularly in China, provides a long-term support for gold prices, despite potential short-term corrections [4]. - Predictions indicate a possible 42% increase in gold prices by 2025, although short-term volatility remains a concern [4].