2026年政策延续偏松,但重视"跨周期"及"提质增效" 12月8日，新华社发布政治局会议通稿。通稿提及"宏观政策更加积极有为"，"继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策",表明2026年整体基调延续积极,不过细节表述也有变化: 一是,经济工作表述新增"提质增效"。 图说金融(20251209) : 二是,提及"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度",政策可能兼顾短期及中长期。 由此,我们对2026年财政及货币政策看法是: 固定收益组 程小庆 邮箱: chengxiaoging@citicsf.com 从业资格号: F3083989 投资咨询号:Z0018635 从业资格号:F03105230 投资咨询号:Z0021341 固定收益组 张 陆 邮箱: zhanglu2@citicsf.com 固定收益组 甘 青 邮箱: ganqing@citicsf.com 从业资格号:F03124127 投资咨询号:Z0023461 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相 ...

回顾:以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1223亿元7天期逆回购操作,操 作利率1. 40%,投标量1223亿元,中标量1223亿元。当日1076亿元逆回购到 期,据此计算,单日净投放147亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市场将有6638亿元逆回购到期,其中周一至周五分别 到期1076亿元、1563亿元、793亿元、1808亿元、1398亿元。中共中央政治 局会议指出,明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切实提升宏观经济治理效能。其中, 货币政策延续适度宽松的基调。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/12/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DROO1 | 1.30 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘继续收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国 | | | | | 共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出， | | | | | 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 | | | | | 松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， | | | | | 切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 | | | | | 2、海关总署最新数据显示，2025 年 11 月中国出口汽车 81.8 万辆；1-11 月累计出 | | | | | 口 733.1 万辆 ...

Group 1 - China's proactive fiscal policy will continue to support consumption and improve public services, focusing on targeted measures to stimulate consumer spending [1] - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery with significant increases in major indices and a notable rise in trading volume, indicating a potential cross-year market rally [3] - The release of the new national medical insurance and commercial health insurance drug directories is expected to benefit several innovative pharmaceutical companies [4] Group 2 - China's import and export growth rate rebounded to 4.1% in November, marking ten consecutive months of year-on-year growth, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade [5] - The sodium-ion battery industry is gaining momentum as companies accelerate their development due to the rising cost of lithium carbonate, with a focus on cost-sensitive applications [7] - The wind power sector is shifting from large-scale turbine development to a "main unit + core components" model, emphasizing the need for technological integration and reliability [8] Group 3 - The implementation of consumer loan interest subsidies is expanding in regions like Sichuan, Guizhou, and Chongqing, with local banks joining the subsidy initiative [11] - The public fund issuance market remains active, with 38 new funds expected to launch in the upcoming week, reflecting sustained interest in investment products [12]

| 1、央行公告称，12月8日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1223亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1223 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 亿元，中标量1223亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1076亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放147亿元。 | | | | 2、中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续 | | 实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 | | 度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持 | | | | 改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联 | | 动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化 | | 解重点领域风险。 | | | | 3、12月3日，中共中央在中南海召开党外人士座谈会，就今年经济形势和明年经济工作听取各民主党派中央、全国工 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the context of China's mild economic recovery and rising expectations of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December FOMC meeting and China's Central Economic Working Conference will affect the rhythm of the A-share market in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and the investment main line in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to be mainly volatile with a preference for defensive allocation. After the meeting content is clear, the resonance of positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cuts is expected to boost market risk appetite again [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) increased by 35.00, 38.20, 36.40, and 37.40 respectively, with daily returns of 0.76%, 0.84%, 0.80%, and 0.83%. The trading volumes were 76082.00, 7171.00, 31206.00, and 6069.00, and the open interests were 132821.00, 12625.00, 100004.00, and 27338.00. The changes in open interests were - 10475.00, 2113.00, 3575.00, and 444.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased by 11.60, 13.20, 12.20, and 11.60 respectively, with daily returns of 0.39%, 0.44%, 0.41%, and 0.39%. The trading volumes were 31875.00, 2747.00, 12170.00, and 3102.00, and the open interests were 55867.00, 4278.00, 26835.00, and 9084.00. The changes in open interests were - 3888.00, 251.00, 299.00, and 274.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased by 67.40, 71.40, 71.00, and 64.60 respectively, with daily returns of 0.95%, 1.02%, 1.03%, and 0.97%. The trading volumes were 63355.00, 6635.00, 28250.00, and 8807.00, and the open interests were 116565.00, 14910.00, 83437.00, and 33799.00. The changes in open interests were - 14425.00, 1959.00, 542.00, and 257.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased by 115.80, 112.80, 109.60, and 107.00 respectively, with daily returns of 1.61%, 1.58%, 1.57%, and 1.59%. The trading volumes were 146937.00, 10614.00, 47651.00, and 15250.00, and the open interests were 189203.00, 20509.00, 109308.00, and 57953.00. The changes in open interests were 8115.00, 3280.00, 6975.00, and 1387.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 15.80, - 5.60, - 53.60, and - 77.20 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 17.40, - 6.80, - 59.40, and - 76.20 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.84%, 0.93%, 1.21%, and 1.29% respectively [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the raw materials, industrial, and real estate and finance sectors had positive daily returns of 2.07%, 1.16%, and 1.33% respectively, while the energy sector had a negative return of - 0.57% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous day's values of the basis for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indices showed different degrees of change compared with the values two days ago [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index increased by 0.70%, 1.08%, 0.68%, and 1.36% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increased by 0.58%, 2.33%, 0.19%, and 0.61% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that in 2026, economic work should adhere to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In November, the growth rate of goods trade rebounded [2] - From January to November this year, the national tax department organized tax and fee revenues exceeding 29 trillion yuan, and investigated 1818 "high - income and high - net - worth" individuals, recovering 1.523 billion yuan in taxes [2] - Experts expect that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4% in 2025, and the new government debt scale may be between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [2] 6. Industry Information - Domestic refined oil prices had a "double - drop". From 24:00 on December 8, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel were both reduced by 55 yuan per ton [2] - The China Trustee Association will soon solicit opinions on the "Guidelines for Family Trust Business" [2] - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.225 million, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The China Passenger Car Association expects that the auto market will face great pressure in 2026 [2] - A land parcel in Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base was successfully auctioned, with a floor price of about 77,360 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 42.49% [2]

Core Insights - The financial system in Yongzhou, Hunan, has been implementing a moderately loose monetary policy since 2025, which has contributed to the economic development of the region, with total deposits reaching 409.045 billion yuan and loans at 286.104 billion yuan as of October, showing year-on-year growth of 8.54% and 3.94% respectively [1] Financial Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China Yongzhou Branch has organized various meetings to communicate the requirements of the moderately loose monetary policy and to monitor the credit allocation of local banks, ensuring stable growth in credit [2] - A regular mechanism for government-bank-enterprise interactions has been established to facilitate financing for major projects, with a focus on increasing credit to key industries, small and micro enterprises, and rural revitalization [2] Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The Yongzhou Branch has guided financial institutions to optimize interest rate pricing mechanisms and reduce various fees for enterprises, ensuring that financial benefits reach the end users [3] - Since the implementation of fee reduction policies, approximately 62.9865 million yuan in payment fees have been waived for 90,600 market entities, and housing loan interest expenses are expected to decrease by about 280 million yuan annually [4] Industry Development - Yongzhou is advancing its industrial strength strategy by developing 16 industry alliances, with a focus on the vegetable industry as a key export-oriented sector [5] - Financial institutions are providing innovative financing products to support these industry alliances, resulting in over 8 billion yuan in loans to these enterprises by the end of October [6] Support for Agriculture and Trade - The Yongzhou Branch has introduced specific policies to support the high-quality development of the vegetable industry and facilitate foreign trade enterprises, with cross-border financing transactions increasing by 45.2% year-on-year [8] - The establishment of a service mechanism for key enterprises has improved the efficiency of foreign exchange and cross-border RMB services, enhancing the overall satisfaction of enterprises with these services [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期持续发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡反弹。沪深京三市全天成交额 2.05 万亿元，较上日成交额放量 3126 亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary policy easing. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure but also supported, and will mainly be in a range - bound consolidation in the short term [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - and medium - term easing expectations still exist [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "weakening", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures continued to trade sideways yesterday. After the Politburo meeting, fiscal policy will increase fiscal efforts to stabilize aggregate economic demand, and there is an expectation of an increase in ultra - long - term Treasury bonds and special bond quotas, resulting in supply pressure on long - term bonds. However, the monetary policy environment remains moderately loose, so Treasury bond futures are under pressure but also supported, and will mainly trade sideways in the short term [5]