Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate has hit a trading limit down, indicating a significant market correction driven by policy intervention and fundamental market dynamics [3][4]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange aim to prevent excessive speculation that could harm the real economy, suggesting that the market is being cooled rather than ending [3][4]. - The volatility in the lithium carbonate market reflects a disconnect between bullish price expectations and current market realities, highlighting the speculative nature of recent trading [4][5]. Group 2: Methanol Market Outlook - The 05 contract for methanol is highlighted as a potential opportunity due to expected improvements in the fundamental market conditions [7]. - Key factors influencing the methanol market include potential gas supply restrictions from Iran, domestic supply reductions, and a possible demand recovery from MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operations [8][9][10]. - The market sentiment is expected to shift towards a de-stocking phase starting mid-December, which could positively impact prices [12][20]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market - A recent conference involving major players in the organic silicon industry has led to a coordinated reduction in production, effective from December 1, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures on upstream industrial silicon [21][23]. - The price of DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) has increased significantly, reflecting the industry's efforts to stabilize prices amid long-term losses and supply-demand imbalances [23]. - The market's quick response to the news indicates a strong sentiment towards self-regulation within the industry, which could bolster confidence moving forward [23]. Group 4: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, breaking through key support levels, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [29][30]. - The anticipated tightening of nickel supply has not materialized, leading to a bearish outlook as demand growth remains insufficient to absorb the excess supply [32][33]. - The market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventories and a lack of significant demand recovery in the near term [33]. Group 5: Futures Market Overview - The futures market shows a clear divergence between bullish opportunities in certain commodities like iron ore and bearish trends in others like coal and agricultural products [46][49][55]. - The core logic driving these trends revolves around supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and seasonal factors affecting various commodities [48][54][57]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified approach while closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly [58].

【冠通期货研究报告】 美国就业数据影响市场 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜平开高走，日内下跌。 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日铜平开高走，日内下跌。美国 9 月季调后非农就业人口新增 11.9 万人，预期 5.0 万人，前值由 2.2 万人下修至-0.4 万人。9 月失业率从前值 4.3%上升至 4.4%，预期 4.3%。11 月预计 5 家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能 150 万吨，预计检修影响量为 4.80 万 吨，但 10 月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端积极性增加，产量有望上移。 据 SMM 调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体如何执行 仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺口。需求 方面，铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出现需求前 置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电力及动力电池新能源外，下游需求表现均不佳。2025 年 10 月中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口量为 134304 吨，同比增长 67.8%；进口量为 44 万吨，同比 下降 13.5%。上期所铜库存连续累库目前同比偏高 98.63% ...

Report Title - Corn Bullish in the Short Term, Maintain Low-Buying Strategy; Pig Prices Grinding at the Bottom, Weak Oscillation in the Futures Market; Egg Spot Prices Oscillating at Low Levels, Near-Term Contracts Gaining Premium [2] Report Core Views - Corn is bullish in the short term, and the low-buying strategy remains unchanged. Pig prices are grinding at the bottom, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. Egg spot prices are oscillating at low levels, and near-term contracts are gaining premium [2][4][9][14] Corn Futures Important Information - Deep-processing enterprises' purchase prices in the Northeast and North China regions increased slightly, with the Northeast at 2036 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and North China at 2263 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the price in the northern port was weakly stable, and the southern port was relatively strong. The purchase price of second-grade new-season corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port was about 2170 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2350 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 573 to 68,764 [4] - The cost-effectiveness of corn for feed increased. As of November 20th, the wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +280 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [4] - In October 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 360,000 tons, the highest this year, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 90.02% [4] Market Logic - Short term: Spot prices are under pressure from concentrated supply but supported by warehouse purchases. After the seasonal selling pressure is released, prices are expected to stabilize and rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality [4] - Medium term: Conduct band trading around the new-season corn drivers, considering factors such as farmers' selling sentiment and downstream inventory building. Maintain a wide-range trading strategy [4] - Long term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [4] Trading Strategy - Medium and long term: Maintain a range trading strategy; short term: Maintain the short-term low-buying strategy. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2150 - 2160, and the first resistance is at 2200. If it breaks through 2200, the resistance moves up to 2220 - 2230 [5] Pig Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national average pig price was 11.58 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. On the 22nd, prices in different regions were expected to be stable or slightly increase [9] - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, and the number in September continued to increase month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply before March next year [9] - As of November 20th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.77 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week [9] - On November 20th, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9] - The China National Grain and Oils Information Center announced that from November 24th to 27th, a total of 9,000 tons of central frozen pork will be purchased and 9,000 tons will be sold [9] Market Logic - Short term: Farmers' willingness to hold back sales is increasing, and downstream consumption has improved due to the drop in temperature, leading to a halt in price decline. However, the short-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the upside potential of prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of short-term purchases on market sentiment and the winter epidemic prevention situation [9] - Medium term: The increase in the number of new-born piglets from February to September (except in July) indicates an expected increase in pig supply before March next year, restricting price increases. Pig prices are in a low-level oscillation phase [9] - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no major epidemic, the full-year pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9] Trading Strategy - Spot prices continue to grind at the bottom. Near-term contracts are oscillating to repair the basis. Short term: The price may break through the previous low and weaken further; Medium and long term: Wait for the effectiveness of farmers' capacity reduction. Far-term contracts are trading based on the expected difference in capacity reduction driven by policies. Pay attention to the actual change in the number of sows. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before significant sow reduction [10] Egg Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national egg price was stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - In October, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% and a year-on-year increase of 5.59%. The estimated number of laying hens in November is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [15] Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices are under pressure but also supported. The number of culled hens has increased, slightly relieving the supply pressure. However, the high number of laying hens in production and the rising inventory limit the upside potential. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16] - Medium term: The supply-demand imbalance is difficult to reverse completely. The limited reduction in the age of culled hens and the incomplete release of supply pressure, combined with weak downstream consumption, suggest that prices may continue to trade in a low range. Attention should be paid to the scale and intensity of culling driven by low prices [16] - Long term: The continuous expansion of egg production scale may prolong the price bottoming period. Wait patiently for the capacity reduction process driven by over-culling [16] Trading Strategy - It was suggested in the morning report on Wednesday to gradually close out previous short positions. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. Next week, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to trade the premium of near-term contracts after the price rallies [16] - Medium and long term: Focus on whether the culling behavior driven by low prices can be sustained and whether it can lead to actual capacity reduction. As of now, the capacity cannot be cleared before the second quarter of next year, and supply pressure remains. Whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on the culling situation in the first quarter [16]

双焦：下跌风险得到释放 关注交易逻辑的切换 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年11月21日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 单边：当前焦煤的下跌已经一定程度上计价了现有的利空因素，预计近期盘面震荡运行，建议空单止盈。中期看后期焦钢 企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多 远月合约，同时对于上涨空间持谨慎态度。 套利：焦煤1/5反套可继续持有。 期权：观望 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 近期整体商品情绪偏弱，焦煤本身波动较大，跌幅也靠前。焦煤的下跌，主要是市场预期发生了改变，发改委供暖季能源 保供会议后，前期煤矿减产逻辑弱化，保供逻辑增强。同时基本面上也边际转弱，在阶段性补库后，市场恐高情绪出现， 下游采购积极性减弱，观望情绪强。山西煤竞拍流拍 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is due to the market's consensus on the pressure of supply-demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels [1]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to take profit on sold options and focus on long - position opportunities on dips in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1665 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 remained unchanged at 1735 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1739 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.29% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - granular): Prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, with increases of 0.61%, 0.67%, 0.61%, and 0.62% respectively; prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 7 yuan/ton or 0.14%, and remained unchanged in Jiangsu at 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1661 yuan/ton, the highest was 1674 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1648 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1665 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1661 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 245423 lots [1]. Multi - Short Logic - Valuation: Although urea has rebounded recently, the rebound is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - Driving factors: The new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251121：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/11/21 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,075.00 | -3.35% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 275.00 | 315.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 52,450.00 | -3.98% | | 元/吨 | 基差 | 元/吨 | -1,450.00 | 2,175.00 | | 9,350.00 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.54% | | 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market has differences in views on the spot freight rate trend in December. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The SCFIS European Line index is expected to remain low in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to the December quotes. Although shipping companies have improved long - term cargo and opened the December GRI window, the market has differences in the implementation expectations. The demand is expected to gradually improve from November to December, and the supply capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. Geopolitical factors such as the Israel - Gaza conflict may also affect the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On November 20, EC2512 closed at 1775.7 points, up 0.7% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported 1417 USD/TEU on November 14, up 7.11% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported on Monday was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% month - on - month, lower than expected, mainly due to the decline in MSK freight rates [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of spot freight rates, shipping companies' long - term cargo has improved, and they have opened the December GRI window. However, the market has differences in the implementation expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in November/December is 26.55/28.33 million TEU, and in January 2026 it is 29.58 million TEU. The capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. Geopolitical factors such as the Israel - Gaza conflict may also affect the market [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, due to differences in implementation expectations, the short - term trend is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Geopolitical news: The Israeli military's air strikes on multiple places in Gaza have caused 25 deaths, and Hamas has condemned the Israeli military's attacks on multiple places in the Gaza Strip [7][8]. 3.3 Related Figures The report provides multiple figures, including the SCFIS European Line index and the SCFIS US West Line index, the SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates on various routes such as Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, and Shanghai - Europe, as well as the basis of EC12 and EC02 contracts [10][11][13][17].

【重要资讯】 本周(20251114-1120)中国甲醇产量为 2014185 吨，较上周增加 41210 吨，装置产能利 用率为 88.77%，环比涨 2.09%。 研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 11 月 20 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面触底反弹，最终报收 2016（-0/-0%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1920 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1880 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1910 元/吨，山西地区报价 1970 元/吨，河南地区报价 2000 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2070 元/吨，鲁北报价 2160 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2070 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 1980 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 1990 元/吨，宁波报价 1970 元/吨，广州报价 1970 元/吨。 1 / 4 研究员：张孟超 从业资格号：F3068848 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017786 联系方式： zhangmengchao_qh@ chinastock.com.cn 【逻辑分析】 供应端 ...

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 卖出看涨 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 多头减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头离场观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 低位震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹承压 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 上涨受限 | | ◆玉米： | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PG main contract is running strongly. The domestic chemical industry is firm, and there are expectations for the civilian sector to strengthen during the peak season, but the market valuation is high. The international propane market pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the United States [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4325 (-10), in Shandong was 4370 (-10), and in South China was 4345 (+0). The price of etherified C4 was 4590 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -60 (-62), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 81 (+20). FEI was 502 (-10) and CP was 486 (+14) dollars per ton [4] Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery products were civil gas in East China at 4364 (-10), in Shandong at 4440 (+60), and in South China at 4460 (+10); etherified C4 was 4630 (+130). The overseas paper goods prices rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, the domestic - foreign price difference weakened, PG - CP reached 128 (-9), and PG - FEI reached 111 (-2). The discount strengthened. The arrival discount of propane in East China was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively. The freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong improved slightly, the profit of alkylation units deteriorated, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. Domestic production decreased slightly, the arrival volume was limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), Donghua Zhangjiagang restarted, and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei stopped for maintenance [4]