【东方汇理：美联储降息预期及新主席人选消息令美元承压走弱】东方汇理高级策略师David Forrester 指出，美国公布喜忧参半的经济数据后，市场加大了对美联储12月降息的押注，美元因此走弱。 Forrester认为，凯文·哈塞特成为接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的热门人选的消息，也导致美元承压。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices stabilized on November 24, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the US next month and a weaker dollar [1][4] - On November 24, LME three-month copper closed at $10,773.00 per ton, down $4.50 or 0.04%, after reaching a historical high of $11,200 on October 29 due to supply concerns [1][2] - The dollar has been under pressure since comments from New York Fed President Williams indicated that the Fed could lower rates without jeopardizing inflation targets, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from 40% to 75% [4] Group 2 - The weakening dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially boosting demand [4] - Technical analysis indicates that copper's resistance level is near the 21-day moving average at approximately $10,836, with support around $10,625, the 50-day moving average [4] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that while copper prices may remain capped at $11,000 per ton in the 2026/2027 fiscal year due to oversupply, a supply shortage is expected later in the decade driven by resource constraints and increased demand from key industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Wealth Management strategists predict a potential weakening of the US dollar due to anticipated weak economic data to be released next week [1] Economic Data Summary - Key economic indicators to be released include retail sales, consumer confidence, and existing home sales on Tuesday, followed by durable goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, and new home sales on Wednesday [1] - The strategists believe that the upcoming data will be weak enough to raise market expectations for a rate cut in December, which could put downward pressure on the dollar by year-end [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to release a backlog of important data, including employment and inflation indicators, which are expected to show weakness, potentially lowering U.S. Treasury yields and reigniting market expectations for interest rate cuts in early 2026, while providing a rebound opportunity for gold that has been pressured by rising real yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming data release is anticipated to indicate a cooling U.S. economy, which could lead to lower Treasury yields [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards weaker U.S. data, which may influence investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - Recent declines in gold prices appear to be more of a position adjustment rather than a trend reversal [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive, with investors closely monitoring U.S. real yields, a weakening dollar, and forthcoming economic data [1] - If the data suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy, gold is expected to rebound in the following week [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Asian currencies, particularly those of China and South Korea, are expected to benefit significantly from the weakening US dollar, which is projected to continue until 2026 [1][2] - The US dollar has depreciated by 7.1% this year, and while the decline is expected to slow, the trend will persist, making Asian currencies potential winners [1] - The South Korean stock market has surged approximately 70% this year, and the Chinese stock market has risen over 35%, yet their currencies, the won and yuan, have not appreciated correspondingly, indicating potential for future gains [1] Group 2 - The South Korean won has only increased by about 1% in 2025 after four consecutive years of decline, while the offshore yuan has risen over 3%, ranking fifth among Asian currencies this year [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions and the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December could further weaken the dollar [2] - Despite strong performance in the US economy, other countries are showing even better results, leading global investors to seek valuation advantages in these markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the weakening of the US dollar is not a central topic for the Federal Reserve, but it is not seen as a cause for concern this year [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the dollar this year is largely viewed as a return to a more reasonable valuation compared to other currencies, following a period of extreme strength [1] - The Federal Reserve's stance is that the current dollar weakness is a normalization rather than a significant issue [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to exert downward pressure on persistent inflation levels [1] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and employment is facing challenges, indicating a difficult period for monetary policy [1] - There is a consensus that a certain degree of tightening is necessary to bring inflation back to target levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged to a three-week high of $4,213, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December due to economic growth concerns exacerbated by the recent government shutdown [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown, which lasted from October 1, has been the longest in history, causing delays in key economic data releases [2]. - Economists estimate that the shutdown may have reduced quarterly GDP growth by 1.5% to 2% [3]. - Job losses in October reached 9,100, with a notable decrease of 22,200 positions in government sectors [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The combination of a weakening dollar, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and central banks increasing gold reserves has contributed to the upward trend in gold prices [3]. - Despite the end of the government shutdown and a recovery in risk sentiment, gold prices remain above $4,200, indicating strong bullish control [1][3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the key resistance level of $4,200 and is positioned to challenge the $4,250 to $4,300 range [5][6]. - Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD are in positive territory, suggesting strong upward momentum [6]. - Key support levels are identified between $4,180 and $4,100, with potential for a technical sell-off if these levels are breached [6][7]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The Russian central bank reported a record increase in gold reserves valued at $92 billion over the past year, totaling $299.8 billion, despite a slight decrease in actual gold holdings [4]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have also influenced gold prices, with analysts suggesting that political actions could further boost gold [2].

金价延续涨势创三周新高美联储降息预期与美元疲软双重利好 周四金价在基本面支撑下吸引跟进买盘。 经济忧虑与美联储降息预期令美元承压，利好贵金属走势。 加之投资者仍倾向于美联储采取更鸽派立场，市场已将12月FOMC会议再次降息25个基点的概率定价在60%左右。这反过来对美元构成阻力，并在周四欧洲 时段为无收益的黄金提供支撑。 亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克周三表示："实时指标显示就业市场处于微妙的平衡状态，我认为短期内出现严重劳动力市场衰退的可能性不大。"他进 一步补充道："目前几乎没有迹象表明价格压力和政策下行风险会助长通胀野兽。" 交易员将继续密切关注多位有影响力的联邦公开市场委员会成员的讲话，以获取更多关于美联储未来降息路径的线索。这种前景将对推动美元需求起到关键 作用。尽管如此，基本面背景表明，XAU/USD货币对的阻力最小的路径仍是向上。 美国政府重启带来的乐观情绪未能抑制该商品涨势。 周四欧洲时段前半段，黄金（XAU/USD）延续三日涨势，攀升至三周新高。投资者普遍预期，因美国政府停摆持续，延迟发布的宏观经济数据将显露经济 疲态，促使美联储12月进一步降息。这对无收益的黄金构成额外利好。 此外，美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate's passage of the funding and extension bill paves the way to end the government shutdown, while poor employment data suggests the Federal Reserve may continue its rate cuts, supporting gold prices amid rising geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Market Summary - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.27% to $4,133.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 1.52% to $51.08 per ounce [1]. - The U.S. announced a suspension of export control penetration rules from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026 [1]. - The ADP reported a decline of 11,250 jobs in the private sector every two weeks, totaling a loss of 45,000 jobs for the month, excluding government employees [1][3]. - The market outlook indicates a period of consolidation [3].

Core Insights - The report by Thu Lan Nguyen from Deutsche Bank suggests that a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown could negatively impact the dollar if delayed data supports further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent dollar appreciation is attributed to the absence of official data during the shutdown, which has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may pause further rate cuts [1] - Delayed data may indicate a weakening labor market alongside rising inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Focus - The Federal Reserve may prioritize employment over inflation, as managing employment levels is perceived to be more challenging [1] - The recent decline in rate cut expectations is viewed as unreasonable and is interpreted as another argument for a weaker dollar [1]