Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly gold, is influenced by multiple factors including a weakening dollar, changing risk sentiment, and developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Gold Prices - The weakening of the dollar index has created favorable conditions for a rebound in gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has further exacerbated the dollar's weakness, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar-denominated assets and shift some funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Concerns about global economic growth, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have put additional pressure on the dollar, supporting the rise in gold prices [3] Group 2: Risk Sentiment and Gold Demand - The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being favored in the current environment due to ongoing conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia situation [4] - Developments in US-China trade relations significantly impact risk sentiment; easing tensions can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, while heightened trade friction tends to boost gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand [4] - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a structural change in demand for safe-haven assets, which provides a stable foundation for the gold market and supports long-term price stability [4]

美国5月通胀预期全面下降，金价企稳反弹 2. 地缘方面，根据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会9日发表声明说，若伊朗遭以色列袭击，以色 列的秘密核设施将成为伊朗的打击目标。据美国媒体日前报道，有情报表明以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设 施。由此可见，中东地区的地缘冲突一触即发，市场避险情绪仍较浓，短期金价或维持震荡偏强运行， 关注周三美CPI数据指引。 金十期货特约光大期货点评：6月9日，COMEX黄金止跌企稳，小幅探涨，报收3346.7美元/盎司，涨幅 0.00%。国内SHFE金夜盘低开高走，报收776.66元/克，涨幅0.18%。 1. 当地时间6月9日下午，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。受到谈判利好预期、关税调低预 期影响，周一美国纽约联储发布的5月最新调查结果显示，5月美国消费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为 2024年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，三年期通胀预期从3.2%降至 3%。五年期通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。通胀预期虽仍高于美联储2%目标，但已明显回落。市场预期在 本周三公布的美国5月CPI将跟随回落，降息预期升温，美债收益率普遍跌超3个基点，略微回吐非农 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing fluctuations in gold prices driven by geopolitical risk sentiments and the resulting market dynamics between buyers and sellers [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions are creating a persistent risk-off sentiment among investors, influencing gold trading strategies [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the current market conditions for traders looking to position themselves effectively in the gold market [1] Group 2: Trading Strategies - The TTPS team is providing analysis on how traders should approach the current gold market amidst the ongoing volatility [1] - The focus is on developing strategies that can capitalize on the fluctuations caused by the geopolitical landscape [1]

6月9日（周一），现货黄金价格小幅上涨，截至当前，金价交投报3318.92美元/盎司，涨幅0.29%。最高上报3321.13美元/盎司，最低3293.19美元/盎司。黄 金ETF基金（159937）跌幅1.11%，换手率2.27%，成交金额6.39亿元。 来源：Wind 国家外汇管理局6月7日公布数据显示，截至2025年5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美元，升幅为0.11%。同日，国家外汇管理 局发布的数据显示，5月末黄金储备为7383万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，为我国央行连续第7个月增持黄金。 图片来源：国家外汇管理局网站 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 展望后续，国家外汇管理局表示，我国经济持续回升向好，经济发展质量稳步提升，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 华联期货分析称，全球关税战反复，避险情绪也反复，并且美国数据表现不一，黄金或震荡反复，建议短线交易。如果美国通胀数据确定继续下行的话，一 季度炒通胀预期就失败，那这样中期黄金可能进入到调整阶段，目前4月美国CPI低于预期，创下2021年2月以来的最低纪录。预计中线趋势行情仍需等待 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-9） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万吨至 | | | | 态势，需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.1 241.8 万吨，连续四周下行， | | | | | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹抛空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | | | 关税至 50%，资金和情绪端表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及 | | | | | | 减产的推进程度，短期受煤焦带动呈现反弹走势，策略上，前期空单建议 | | | | | | 继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，52 ...

市场下调美联储降息预期，叠加避险情绪降温，黄金反弹高度或有限？点此0元进群领黄金策略，还有 直播深度剖析金价走势！仅限50个名额 相关链接 进群免费领黄金策略 ...

张津镭：避险VS美元压制，黄金如何把握交易节奏？ 故日内操作上张津镭建议： 上周，受地缘局势担忧等因素影响，黄金周初高涨，随后的几个交易日震荡运行，不过随着国际贸易局 势传来乐观消息，金价开始回吐涨幅，由于非农数据强于市场预期，现货黄金上周五下跌收报3311美 元/盎司。本周事件消息不多，依然是重点关注中东，俄乌事件。以及美国政府的关税政策等。 从技术上来看，上周五黄金借着非农数据带来利空已经将下方预期的回修空间运行的差不多了，且今日 早间行情受情绪延续影响对3300整数关口都有刺破动作，如此状态说明市场对于技术性回修调整还是比 较期待的，但是奈何避险情绪不定时的对行情构成扰动打乱运行节奏。目前黄金有望借着3300进行一定 的争夺，周初允许有回弹测试5、10日线3330的动作，但是不宜站上，本周预期大概率横向震荡消化， 以等待下周美联储利率决定来做中期级别的方向引导，但是期间务必要防范基本面可能再爆出突发消息 的影响，尤其是俄乌局势恶化方面可能带来的避险情绪升温。 周一（6月9日）金价在早间开盘小幅下跌，跌破3300关口后快速反弹。受美国5月非农就业数据超预期 的影响，美元反弹，抑制了以美元计价的黄金价格上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are struggling around the $3,300 mark, indicating a potential turning point in the market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has been oscillating in a high-level range between $3,200 and $3,500 since April 22, with no new highs reached, attributed to reduced risk appetite and upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations [3]. - The 20-day moving average is flattening, suggesting that the bullish trend may be approaching a turning point, while the 60-day moving average is at $3,243, indicating that failure to rise above this level could lead to a negative mid-term trend for gold [3][4]. Group 2: Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis - Despite the current bullish sentiment towards gold, including central banks increasing their gold holdings, the technical indicators suggest a potential risk of a downturn, highlighting a divergence between fundamental and technical analyses [4]. - The market is at a critical juncture where technical analysis may provide early signals of fundamental shifts, emphasizing the need for caution despite a generally positive outlook on gold [4].

有色金属周报 20250608 关税缓和，工业金属价格震荡走强 2025 年 06 月 08 日 ➢ 本周（06/02-06/06）上证综指上涨 1.13%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.88%，SW 有 色指数上涨 3.34%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+0.54%，COMEX 白银变动+9.24%。 工业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+0.12%、+1.83%、+1.25%、 +0.51%、+1.21%、+6.70%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.33%、-11.66%、-1.56%、-1.71%、+0.36%、-8.96%。 ➢ 工业金属：关税预期缓和，国内宏观持续向好，看好工业金属表现。铜方面，供 应端本周SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.29美元/干吨，环比增加0.27美元/干吨。 Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂的二轮年中谈判还未启动。刚果金 Kamoa-Kakula 铜矿有 望于本月晚些时候重启矿山西侧区域。泰克资源旗下 5 万吨 Carmen de Andacollo 铜 矿因机械故障将停产 1 个月左右。需求端本周 SMM 铜线缆企业开工 ...

Group 1 - Silver and platinum prices have surged, with silver reaching a high of $36.263 per ounce, the highest since February 2012, and platinum hitting $1172.59 per ounce, the highest in nearly two years [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by approximately 24% and platinum by 28%, comparable to gold's performance [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating tariff policies, and recovering demand, alongside technical factors driving price increases [1][2] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106 when gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, prompting hedge funds to shift positions from gold to silver [2] - Historical trends indicate that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, silver has a 70% probability of experiencing a price increase, with expectations of returning to a more reasonable range of 60-70 [2] - Strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China are contributing to the market's upward momentum [2][3] Group 3 - Economic recovery is expected to significantly boost industrial demand for silver, which is essential in various sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive manufacturing [3] - Silver's role in clean energy technologies provides a solid fundamental support for its price increase [3] - Current market analysis suggests that silver's upward trend is likely to continue until a significant risk event disrupts the price trajectory [3]