【导读】贵金属概念股集体调整，农业板块快速走高 1月30日开盘，A股三大指数震荡走低，截至发稿，沪指跌0.51%，深成指跌0.80%，创业板指跌0.11%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4136.78 | 14185.16 | 1828.84 | | | -21.21 -0.51% -114.92 -0.80% -2.26 -0.12% | | | | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | | 6798.52 | 3300.89 | 1519.85 | | | -48.76 -0.71% -3.62 -0.11% | | -16.15 -1.05% | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | | 4716.59 | 8407.95 | 5909.75 | | | -37.28 -0.78% -109.89 -1.29% -59.16 -0.99% | | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | | 8269.84 | 5823.30 | 5745.32 | | | -62.3 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 美元/盎司。美联储政策分歧、美国政府停摆 风险及伊朗军事演习加剧市场避险情绪，叠加特朗普降息呼吁与新任主席宽 ...

在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪 录。1月29日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口。当日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显 示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄金需求总值飙升至5550亿美元， 同比增长45%。随着金价屡创新高，市场分歧正在加大。业内人士表示，短期内，情绪驱动下的波动或 将放大；中长期而言，黄金能否继续走高，仍取决于全球风险格局、货币政策走向以及投资需求的持续 性。（证券时报） ...

美国短期和中期国债周四小幅上涨，长期国债基本持平，此前美国早盘避险情绪冲击股市。与此同时， 许多大宗商品抹去涨势，VIX指数跃升，进一步增强了市场对短期国债的避险需求。440亿美元7年期国 债标售吸引的需求接近预期。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，2年期至5年期美国国债收益率日间走低约2个基点，2s10s利差走阔约1个基点， 5s30s利差走阔约2个基点；10年期国债收益率接近4.23%，日间下跌不到2个基点。 7年期国债中标收益率较发行前交易水平高0.4个基点，对市场影响甚微；一级交易商获配10.9%，高于 近期平均水平10.2%，直接竞标人获配22.2%，低于前六次平均水平28%，间接竞标人获配66.9%，高于 前六次平均水平61.8%。 责任编辑：李桐 美国短期和中期国债周四小幅上涨，长期国债基本持平，此前美国早盘避险情绪冲击股市。与此同时， 许多大宗商品抹去涨势，VIX指数跃升，进一步增强了市场对短期国债的避险需求。440亿美元7年期国 债标售吸引的需求接近预期。 截至纽约时间下午3：47，美国2年期国债收益率报3.557%。 美国5年期国债收益率报3.8123%。 美国10年期国债收益率报4.2313%。 ...

证券时报记者 许孝如 在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪录。1月29 日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口。 国际金价上涨传导至终端消费市场，多家黄金珠宝品牌最新公布的境内足金饰品价格普遍突破1700元/克，创历史 新高。 当日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄金需求 总值飙升至5550亿美元，同比增长45%。 随着金价屡创新高，市场分歧正在加大。业内人士表示，短期内，情绪驱动下的波动或将放大；中长期而言，黄 金能否继续走高，仍取决于全球风险格局、货币政策走向以及投资需求的持续性。 黄金需求创纪录 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创 下新高。从结构看，投资需求成为推动2025年全球黄金需求创纪录的核心力量。 报告显示，2025年全球黄金投资需求攀升至2175吨，首次站上2000吨以上的水平。其中，全球黄金ETF全年净增持 801吨，创下历史第二高年度增量。持续的地缘政治风险、全球经济不确定性以及主要 ...

利率维持在3.5%到3.75%之间，还是那副按兵不动的德行。 这虽然符合大家伙的预期，但我查了下路透社最新的数据，美元指数不仅没被这一声"不动"给托住，反而一头扎进了四年的深坑里，1月26 日那会儿就已经跌到了去年9月以来的最低水平，今年开年不到一个月，美元已经跌了快2.3%。 我纳闷的是，鲍威尔这次说话的语气，硬得让人想隔着屏幕给他递个扩音器。他在记者会上直勾勾地盯着摄像头说，下一届美联储主席得和 政治划清界限。这话是说给谁听的？大家都心知肚明。 我问你个问题。你有没有发现，这几天美元的底裤好像快被拽掉了，可偏偏黄金就像吃错了药一样，死命往上窜。就在当地时间1月28日下 午，美联储那栋大楼里传出来的消息，简直让人想冷笑。 这种九连涨的架势，哪还有一点高利率压制的样子？这就是典型的避险情绪拉满。大家看着特朗普对美元贬值那副无所谓、甚至觉得很好的 态度，心里都发虚。特朗普去年12月接受采访时就说，他希望美元走弱来改善贸易逆差。总统带头看空本币，美联储主席位子又不稳，黄金 不涨谁涨？ 我昨天看到这些数据直接愣住了，感觉全球资产的定价逻辑已经完全乱了套。原本说好的高利率会吸引资金回流美国，结果现在投资者都在 系统性 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant potential of crude oil, referred to as the "initial bull," compared to the "crazy bull" of gold, which is currently experiencing a notable rise [1][6] - As of January 8, WTI crude oil has shown a strong upward trend, with a closing price that increased by $2 from the opening price, reaching a peak of $64.26, marking a four-month high [1][6] - The rise in both gold and crude oil prices is attributed to a sharp decline in the US dollar index, which fell from near the 100 mark to around 95 within two weeks, providing upward momentum for both commodities [2][7] Group 2 - The current market focus is on the geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, with the US aircraft carrier Lincoln entering the Persian Gulf, raising concerns about potential conflict [2][8] - Should a conflict arise, gold prices are expected to surge due to increased safe-haven demand, while crude oil prices may rise significantly if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, affecting the transport of 20 million barrels of oil daily [8] - The article suggests that while gold may be nearing the end of its upward trend, crude oil is positioned at the beginning of a potential bull market, with projections indicating it could become a leading investment opportunity by 2026 [2][8] Group 3 - In terms of market structure, WTI crude oil has formed a double bottom at $55.9 and $54.86, with the latter serving as a reliable support level, and the price has accelerated upward since January 8 [5][10] - The previous mid-term high of $62.36 has been surpassed, and the market is currently seeking new mid-term highs, with $54.86 identified as the most dependable support level [5][10] - Close attention is advised for the formation of a daily top pattern, which could indicate that the upward trend is approaching mid-term resistance levels [10]

Core Viewpoint - On January 29, a rare market event occurred where resource-related LOFs, including oil LOFs, experienced a collective surge, with many products hitting the daily limit up [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Multiple LOF products, including Yuanda Oil LOF and Jiashi Oil LOF, achieved significant gains, with several products closing at the daily limit up of 10% [3][5]. - The WTI crude oil futures reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025 [7]. - The strong performance of resource LOFs was attributed to high premium rates and a surge in investor interest due to tight QDII quotas and low subscription limits [6][7]. Group 2: Fund Announcements - Several fund companies announced that their resource-related LOFs would be suspended from trading starting January 30, 2026, to alert investors about the risks associated with high premium rates [2][9]. - The announcement included specific funds such as the Yuanda Oil LOF and Jiashi Oil LOF, which will also be suspended until 10:30 AM on January 30 [9][10]. - The suspension is a response to significant deviations between market prices and net asset values, indicating potential risks for investors [9][10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors have been utilizing the "offshore subscription + onshore selling" arbitrage mechanism, leading to concentrated inflows into LOF funds [6]. - The tightening of subscription limits for oil LOFs, with the daily single account limit reduced to as low as 2 yuan, has led investors to purchase at higher prices in the secondary market [7][9]. - Analysts warn that if international oil prices decline or if arbitrage funds withdraw, the prices of these funds may quickly revert to net asset values, posing risks for investors who buy at high prices [9][10].

Group 1 - The main focus is on the fluctuations in gold prices, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 1249.12 yuan per gram, reflecting a 7.88% increase, and a trading range between 1180.00 and 1258.72 yuan per gram [1] - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while internal support for a rate cut remains evident [3] - The market anticipates a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy due to concerns over the labor market and inflation, which could support gold prices in the short term [3] Group 2 - The U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped significantly to 84.5, the lowest level since May 2014, indicating growing concerns over the labor market and high prices, which may lead to more cautious spending by households [1] - The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Central Command's area of responsibility, indicating potential military action in the Middle East if ordered by the White House [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reports stable gold futures inventory, with geopolitical uncertainties continuing to support precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Total gold futures inventory stands at 103,029 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The opening price for gold futures was 1,189.60 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,258.72 CNY and a low of 1,180.00 CNY, with the latest price at 1,249.12 CNY, reflecting a 7.88% increase [1] - Trading volume for the day was 521,258 contracts, with open interest at 211,820 contracts, showing a decrease of 10,653 contracts in daily open interest [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Recommendations - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to continue supporting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Silver is experiencing significant market pressure due to tight spot supply and declining inventory, leading to increased speculative trading; the import window remains open, suggesting a need for cautious position management amid potential volatility [1]