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Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have led to fluctuating oil prices, while gold prices have remained relatively stable, raising questions about the current state of risk aversion in the market [1][3]. Market Reactions - Gold prices did not react significantly to the Middle East conflict due to several factors: 1) Market expectations have been dulled, with prior conflicts already priced in [3] 2) A stabilizing dollar index has attracted funds back to the U.S., putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold [3] 3) Slowing inflows into gold ETFs and high positions held by CTA funds indicate a lack of new buying momentum [3] 4) The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has delayed interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [3]. Institutional Predictions - Major financial institutions have differing views on gold price forecasts: - Bank of America predicts gold could reach $4000 per ounce within the next 12 months, driven by geopolitical risks and fiscal deficits [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs has a base case of $3300, with a potential extreme of $4200 by the end of 2025, citing central bank purchases and ETF inflows [5]. - Morgan Stanley projects a price of $6000 by early 2029, contingent on a collapse of dollar credit [5]. - Citigroup is the most pessimistic, suggesting prices could fall below $3000 in the next year due to economic recovery [5]. Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Institutions predicting an increase in gold prices cite several supporting factors: 1) High fiscal deficits in the U.S. are expected to weaken dollar credibility, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [5]. 2) Ongoing uncertainty in U.S. policies may exacerbate risks to dollar credibility and economic downturns [5]. 3) Continued central bank purchases of gold, with China increasing its reserves for seven consecutive months [5]. 4) Persistent geopolitical risks are likely to sustain demand for gold as a safe haven [5]. Diverging Opinions - There is a growing divergence in opinions regarding gold prices, with some institutions like Citigroup arguing that U.S. economic recovery will diminish gold's attractiveness, while others emphasize recession risks as supportive for gold [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Gold remains a valuable asset for hedging against equity market risks, with recommendations suggesting a long-term holding strategy not exceeding 15% of total portfolio allocation [8].

全球市场剧烈震荡：股市狂欢，金油暴跌 昨日全球金融市场上演一出精彩好戏，剧烈波动成为主旋律。亚欧股市强势上涨，美股科技巨头集体欢腾，而黄金和原油则遭遇重挫，跌幅惊人。这一现象 引发市场热议，究竟是短暂回调还是趋势转变？让我们细细分析。 股市盛宴：科技巨头领涨，欧美同步狂欢 首先，让我们聚焦昨日股市表现。欧美股市集体高开高走，上演了一场令人眼花缭乱的"涨停潮"。美国三大股指——纳斯达克指数飙升1.43%，标普500指数 上涨1.11%，道琼斯指数劲扬1.19%，均创下近期新高。科技巨头更是表现抢眼：英伟达暴涨2.59%，亚马逊上涨2.06%，Meta上涨1.96%，谷歌上涨1.04%， 微软上涨0.85%。然而，特斯拉因前一日暴涨而出现回调，下跌2.35%；苹果股价亦是先扬后抑，最终微跌0.60%。 云集和蔚来涨幅均超过2%。 A股市场也紧随其后，三大股指放量大涨，沪指成功站上3420点，创业板指数飙升2.30%，深证成指上涨1.68%。近4800只个股上涨，交易量激增近3000亿 元。 | く 疯富 | 欧美指数 () | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新, ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has significantly impacted global financial markets, particularly the precious metals market, leading to increased volatility in gold and silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the initiation of the "Lion's Roar" operation by Israel on June 13, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold reaching a peak of $3,470 per ounce and Shanghai gold hitting 800 yuan per gram [1]. - After the conflict escalated, gold prices retreated to a low of $3,300 per ounce, marking a decline of 5%, while Shanghai gold fell to 770 yuan per gram, a decrease of approximately 3.7% [1]. - Silver prices also experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical high of 9,075 yuan per kilogram during the conflict, but subsequently fell to around 8,700 yuan per kilogram after the ceasefire [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Global gold ETF holdings have been increasing continuously, driven by heightened risk aversion among investors due to the conflict [2]. - In contrast, domestic trading volumes for Shanghai gold and silver have remained relatively subdued, indicating a more cautious and rational approach from local investors [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The conflict has raised concerns about energy production and shipping stability in the Middle East, particularly regarding the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact global economic growth and inflation [2][3]. - The relationship between gold and oil prices has strengthened during the conflict, with fears of stagflation in developed economies if oil exports are restricted [3]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly its stance on interest rates, is also influencing gold prices, with potential shifts depending on the economic impact of the conflict [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The immediate impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on global energy supply chains and shipping routes is considered limited, suggesting that gold prices may lack sustained upward momentum in the short term [4]. - However, if the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts later in the year, there could be a new wave of upward pressure on gold and silver prices [4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for gold prices, driven by increasing physical demand from central bank purchases over the next 3 to 5 years [4].

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has fallen to approximately 97.00, marking a three-year low, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [1] - The euro has risen to a three-year high against the dollar, reaching 1.173, while the Swiss franc has hit a ten-year high [1] - The Japanese yen has strengthened as the dollar depreciates, with the USD/JPY rate dropping below 144.00 [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Japan's government plans to lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.2% to below 1%, primarily due to global trade risks from US tariff policies [2] - The Australian dollar has appreciated for four consecutive trading days, influenced by slowing inflation data, leading to expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia [3] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that interest rates will gradually decline, but the monetary policy will not follow a preset path, emphasizing the need for a restrictive stance until inflation risks subside [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Market sentiment is driven by three factors: rumors of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve, easing geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade negotiations influenced by Trump's tariff comments [1] - There is strong demand for put options on the dollar, indicating that traders view the dollar's decline as a key risk to hedge against [1] - Analysts suggest that if the euro can break through the 1.17 level against the dollar, it may pave the way for further gains towards 1.20, supported by a favorable trade stance from US allies [6]

【基本面消息】 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 6月26日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 775.28 | 0.69% | 128026 | 135266 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 数据显示，6月26日上海黄金现货价格报价770元/克，相较于期货主力价格（775.28元/克）贴水5.28元/ 克。 在6月25日于海牙举行的北约峰会上，美国总统特朗普公开表示，以色列与伊朗之间的停火协议为加沙 谈判创造了有利氛围。他信心满满地宣称："我认为在加沙问题上正取得巨大进展，我们将会有一些非 常好的消息。"特朗普透露，其特使史蒂夫·威特科夫（Steve Witkoff）近期向他汇报了谈判的最新进 展，并表示"加沙问题已非常接近达成协议"。这一表态无疑为陷入僵局的加沙局势注入了一剂强心针。 就在特朗普发表讲话的几小时前，以色列与伊朗达成了一项暂停敌对行动的协议。这不仅缓解了中东地 区的紧张局势，也为加沙谈判提供了新的契机。据阿拉伯调解人透露，威特科夫在伊朗停火协议生效后 迅速行动，通过电话 ...

摘要周四(6月26日)亚市盘中，现货黄金交投于3336.99美元/盎司，涨幅0.15%。日内将可关注美国至6月 21日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值以及美国5月耐用品订单月率和 美国5月成屋签约销售指数月率等数据，市场预期前者保持不变。 周四(6月26日)亚市盘中，现货黄金交投于3336.99美元/盎司，涨幅0.15%。日内将可关注美国至6月21日 当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值以及美国5月耐用品订单月率和美国5 月成屋签约销售指数月率等数据，市场预期前者保持不变，对金价影响有限，后者预计好于前值而将利 空金价，使得金价日内偏向冲高回落或震荡走盘，反之则持稳反弹收阳。 【基本面】 在中东地区，尽管以色列与伊朗近期宣布停火，但局势依然脆弱。当地时间6月25日，美国总统特朗普 表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议"有多 必要"。特朗普还称，自己"非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突已经结束，但冲突可能再次爆发， 也许很快。他不认为伊朗会重新进行核计划，同时表示美国不依赖以色列情报，空袭以来收集的情报显 ...

日线图上，黄金从六月低点反弹，缓解短期下行压力。黄金下方支撑，可以关注周三晚间金价反弹遇阻后的回落低点 3325美元，其次周线低点附近3310美元；黄金上方压力，可以关注日线5日均线3345美元附近，也是目前日内高点附 近，向上突破关注日线布林带中轨3357美元附近。5日均线与MACD指标死叉向下，显示短期技术面空方占优，不过 KDJ与RSI指标死叉向上拐头，暗示黄金存在反弹需求。黄金日内参考：中东局势缓和，避险情绪降温，以及美联储 立场鹰派，打压快速降息的预期，共同对黄金造成压制，不过黄金回落之后企稳反弹，因贸易不确定性、地缘局势与 降息预期，仍对金价形成支撑。操作上建议震荡思路对待，下方支撑关注3325美元，其次3310美元，上方压力关注 3345美元，其次3357美元。 转自：黄力晨 昨日周三我们认为，中东地区紧张局势缓和，市场避险情绪出现降温，以及美联储立场鹰派，打压快速降息的预期， 共同对金价形成压制，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注3325美元，向下突破可以继续关注3315和3300美元，上方 压力则关注3337和3347美元。从之后的走势看，欧盘盘中，黄金向下突破，失守3325到3337美元的短 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Insights - The report from Wenkang Securities highlights that strategic minor metals are experiencing price increases due to resource scarcity and growing demand from the downstream new energy sector, benefiting companies with resource and technological advantages [1] - Platinum prices have surged over 35% this year, leading to an increase in platinum jewelry stores and a decrease in gold outlets in the Shenzhen market [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties are driving up safe-haven demand, with expectations for continued increases in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals and Energy Metals - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate has resulted in stable industrial metal prices, with copper prices facing upward pressure due to tightening supply of copper concentrate [1] - Aluminum prices are impacted by supply chain vulnerabilities following an incident in Guinea's bauxite mines [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo's extension of the temporary cobalt export ban is expected to support rising cobalt prices [1] Group 3: Strategic Metals Developments - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have rebounded from lows, while black tungsten concentrate prices have reached historical highs, indicating potential valuation reconstruction opportunities for strategic metals amid global supply chain autonomy pursuits [1]

昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 特朗普：以伊冲突可能再次爆发 6月25日下午，话题#金价跌至6月以来新低#登上新浪微博热搜第一位。 Wind数据显示，24日晚间，受以伊冲突局势缓和，避险情绪消退影响，国际贵金属期货普 遍收跌，现货黄金盘中一度跌超2%，收报3322.93美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货收盘跌 1.66%，报3338.5美元/盎司。 25日晚间，二者均小幅直线拉升，截至发稿，现货黄金涨0.09%，报3335.07美元/盎司， COMEX黄金期货涨0.17%，报3348.71美元/盎司。 | 最新价: 3335.07 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 结算价: -- | | 持仓量:0 | | "化教並（呪贝貝立）ＣＦＵ(XAU) ● ● 添加目远 □ 在APP中登着 3335.07 ↑ +0.09% 2025-06-26 08:07:00 | 买 价: 3335.07 | 开盘价: 3334.70 卖 价:3335.42 | 消息面上，据央视新闻，当地时间6月25日，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就 一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议"有多必要"。 ...