Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth rate cut since June of the previous year, with current rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% for deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates respectively [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The ECB's recent rate cut aligns with market expectations and signals a potential pause in the current easing cycle, depending on future economic data [1][6] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the current monetary policy cycle is entering a new phase, with future rate movements contingent on economic performance [1][5] - Following the announcement, market expectations for further rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 30% to around 20% [1][6] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Eurozone inflation has eased, with the May harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 1.9%, below the ECB's 2% target for the first time in eight months, aided by falling energy prices and a stronger euro [2][3] - Economic growth remains weak, with GDP growth of 0.4% in Q1 2025 driven mainly by temporary export effects from Germany and Spain, while service sector activity is contracting [3][6] - Geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes contribute to economic uncertainty, prompting the ECB to consider further rate cuts to mitigate external shocks [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts, projecting an average inflation rate of 2.0% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause rate cuts in July, with the next meeting in September potentially being the last opportunity for a cut, depending on economic conditions and inflation trends [6][7] - The market anticipates a limited further rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, followed by a period of observation [6][7]

欧洲央行管委森特诺：货币政策正处于降息周期。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，爱沙尼亚央行行长、欧洲央行管理委员会成员马迪斯·穆勒表示，该行正接近本轮 降息周期的尾声，而另一位同僚则宣称通胀已被战胜。欧洲央行于当地时间6月5日宣布下调存款利率25 个基点至2%，符合市场普遍预期。 就在欧洲央行宣布一年内第八次降息的次日，穆勒在接受采访时表示："拉加德行长昨日的总结很精辟 ——我们可能已基本完成本轮降息周期。至于未来走势，目前还没有人能给出确切答案。" 周四的货币政策会议决定将存款利率下调至2%，使本轮累计降息幅度达到200个基点。据知情人士透 露，决策层目前考虑在7月暂停行动，部分官员甚至认为始于2024年6月的宽松周期已经终结。 由于美国总统特朗普的贸易政策影响，通胀前景仍存在高度不确定性。欧洲央行在发布新季度预测时， 同步呈现了温和与严峻两种情景，突显极端不可预测性。 法国央行行长弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德加洛则对消费者价格走势给出更乐观解读，甚至宣称欧洲央行已完 成使命。 "我们打赢了抗击通胀的战役，"他表示，"法国通胀率现已低于1%，欧洲整体为1.9%，我们预测今年将 达2%。" 维勒鲁瓦指出，与美国不同，欧元区尚未出现关税引发的价格效应。 他分析道，"加征关税 ...

智通财经6月6日电，欧洲央行管委穆勒表示，可以对目前通胀水平感到满意，同意拉加德的观点，即 （降息）周期已接近尾声。 ...

Economic Growth Overview - Australia's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, showing a decline from the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [1] - Per capita GDP experienced a negative growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, contrasting with a 0.1% growth in the previous quarter [1] Factors Affecting Economic Performance - Public sector spending has significantly dragged down economic growth, reaching the highest level of detriment since Q3 2017 [1] - Extreme weather events have suppressed domestic final demand and exports, particularly impacting the mining, tourism, and shipping industries [1][2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption increased by 0.4%, driven mainly by spending on essential items such as food and rent [1] - Private sector investment rose by 0.7%, primarily from residential, new construction, and engineering projects, while public sector investment fell by 2% after reaching a record high in the previous quarter [1] Savings and Income - The household savings rate increased to 5.2%, with disposable income growing by 2.4% [1] Export Challenges - Commodity exports, particularly coal and liquefied natural gas, were negatively impacted by adverse weather affecting production and shipping [2] - The tourism services sector underperformed, with international student numbers growing below average and a decline in per capita spending by students [2] Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that despite the impact of extreme weather, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, with low consumer spending and business investment [2] - There is a call for more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy, with potential early initiation of a rate cut cycle if the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledges the trends of economic slowdown and declining inflation [2]

拉加德暗示降息周期已近尾声 市场不再完全定价年内再降息25BP 金十数据6月5日讯，交易员削减了对欧洲央行未来降息的押注，并不再完全定价今年再降息25个基点的 预期。货币市场对12月前进一步降息的预期一度仅为23个基点，而在欧洲央行周四利率决定之前，市场 预期为32个基点。短期债券领跌，两年期德国国债收益率一度上涨7个基点，至1.87%。此前，欧洲央 行行长拉加德表示，央行的降息周期已接近尾声。 ...

同传直播 欧洲央行如期再次下调利率，降息周期已接近尾声？行长拉加德正召开新闻发布会，马上围观同传直 播... 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects a 25 basis point rate cut, maintaining GDP forecasts for this year while lowering next year's GDP forecast and significantly reducing inflation predictions [1] - UBS anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, with the last cut expected in July, bringing rates down to 1.75%, and a potential rate hike by the end of 2026 to address inflation risks [1] - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point rate cut, noting that the market has already priced in the recent ECB rate cut, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro [1] Group 2 - Nomura Securities forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut, with further cuts expected in July and September until rates reach 1.50%, while adjusting GDP and inflation predictions [1][2] - Deutsche Bank expects a 25 basis point rate cut, suggesting that the terminal rate for the easing cycle should remain at 1.50%, with a potential rate hike to 1.75% by the end of 2026 [2] - Pacific Investment Management Company anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating that the ECB is entering the final phase of its easing cycle, with current market pricing around 1.7% appearing reasonable [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the eighth rate cut in this cycle due to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade and economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB is anticipated to announce a rate cut on Thursday, with further cuts expected in September as the impact of tariffs becomes clearer [1]. - ECB policymakers, both hawks and doves, indicate that they have nearly completed the process of lowering borrowing costs, with discussions about slowing the pace of easing [5]. - Economists predict a pause in rate cuts next month, but caution that prolonged inaction could lead markets to believe the ECB has halted rate reductions entirely [7]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - Analysts expect the ECB to maintain its previous economic forecasts despite significant changes in the global trade landscape [8]. - The euro has strengthened significantly since March, and lower energy prices are exerting downward pressure on prices, providing relief to businesses affected by weak demand [8]. - The ECB is preparing various scenario forecasts to better understand potential future developments, with the likelihood of the baseline forecast being less than 50% [10]. Group 3: Political and Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meetings between U.S. and EU officials, including discussions on defense spending and tariffs, are critical for the economic outlook of the eurozone [11]. - The potential for increased defense spending to 5% of GDP, as requested by the U.S., could significantly impact the eurozone economy [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of trade negotiations and the ability of governments to implement large-scale defense and infrastructure plans adds to the unpredictability of the economic environment [10].

经济增速放缓进一步削弱通胀持续性基础。高盛预测美国2024年GDP增速将放缓至1%，显著低于2.1%的潜在 增长率，失业率预计小幅攀升至4.5%。这种温和衰退压力已在实体经济显现：5月制造业PMI新订单指数连续 第三个月处于收缩区间，服务业PMI就业分项指数跌至2020年6月以来最低水平。 研报特别强调，关税冲击的通胀效应将集中体现在5-8月的物价报告中，此后同比基数效应将逐步消退。高盛 构建的通胀脉冲模型显示，关税对CPI的拉动效应将在2025年二季度转负，为美联储政策转向创造条件。但报 告警示，若贸易摩擦升级导致供应链持续紊乱，或引发"二次通胀"风险，这种情况将迫使央行重新评估降息路 径。 消费端动能减弱构成第二道通缩屏障。疫情期间累积的超额储蓄现已耗尽，美国家庭可支配收入中用于消费的 比例较峰值下降3.2个百分点。高盛消费者支出追踪指标显示，当前家庭消费能力较2021年下降17%，企业定价 权因需求疲软受到显著制约。这种转变与2022年形成鲜明对比，当时企业曾普遍观察到"消费者对提价容忍度 异常偏高"的现象。 高盛最新研报指出，尽管特朗普政府关税政策可能推高美国核心PCE通胀率至3.6%，但当前通胀上行 ...