不过，需要注意的是，美伊即将迎来第五轮谈判，外媒报道称，若未能成功达成清除伊朗铀浓缩能力的条款，以色列发动打击的概率将大幅提升。这将成为 影响油价的重大不确定因素。 其他品种方面，焦煤、棕榈油、沪铅、甲醇等也跌超1%。 5月22日，南非启动关键矿产发展战略，市场对成本端的担忧刺激锰硅大涨，以3.84%的涨幅领涨国内商品市场。据中国新闻网报道，南非内阁正式批准 《关键矿产与金属战略》，此次制定的战略明确铂金、锰矿、铁矿石、煤炭和铬矿为高关键性矿物。虽然目前并不明确该政策会对出口产生的具体影响，但 由于中国对南非锰矿需求较高，市场担忧无论是进口量还是进口成本受到影响，都将增加我国锰硅冶炼成本。不过，由于终端需求偏弱，市场担忧情绪可能 只是短暂地提供支撑。中粮期货认为，锰硅价格长期下行压力仍大。一方面，需求淡季即将来临，钢材需求减弱，钢厂对锰硅的需求也会相应减少；另一方 面，焦炭首轮提降已落地，化工焦价格也有下调预期，这将弱化成本支撑。在需求和成本的双重压力下，锰硅价格难以维持高位。 碳酸锂今日冲高回落，但仍旧收涨1.67%。碳酸锂基本面仍旧维持供应宽松格局，但持续地下跌令碳酸锂生产端积极性减弱，据我的钢铁网（My ...

Core Viewpoint - Haile Wind Power released its 2024 annual report, showing a revenue of 1.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.63%, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 66 million yuan, a significant increase of 175.08% compared to a loss of 88 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.355 billion yuan, down 19.63% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 66 million yuan, up 175.08% year-on-year [1][2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 436 million yuan, a substantial increase of 251.50% year-on-year, but a net profit of 64 million yuan, down 13.27% year-on-year [2][4] - The company achieved a non-recurring net profit of 58 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 149.34% [1][2] Product Performance - Revenue from pile foundations and wind turbine towers was 854 million yuan and 320 million yuan, respectively, down 22.67% and 18.71% year-on-year; however, revenue from conductor frames increased by 6.82% to 137 million yuan [3] - Sales volume for towers was 82 units (down 22.64% year-on-year), pile foundations 92 units (down 16.36%), and conductor frames 14 units (up 55.56%) [3] Inventory and Contract Liabilities - By the end of 2024, the company's inventory reached 2.053 billion yuan, an increase of 136.7% from the beginning of the year, while contract liabilities reached 681 million yuan, up 840.7% [3] - As of the end of Q1 2025, inventory was 2.431 billion yuan, an 18.4% increase from the beginning of the year, and contract liabilities were 724 million yuan, a 6.3% increase [3] Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 7.68%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to approximately 15%, significantly higher than the 7.7% for the entire year of 2024, attributed to increased shipment volumes and improved capacity utilization [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 5.25 billion yuan, 6.75 billion yuan, and 9 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 680 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.18 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 20.1, 15.7, and 12.2 times [4]

2025 年 05 月 22 日 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 5 月 21 日 CBOT 大豆日评：暴雨威胁阿根廷作物，大豆上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 5 月 22 日消息： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 豆粕：阿根廷洪灾担忧、美豆收涨，连粕反弹 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4225 +44（+1.05%） | 4219 +13（+0.31%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2934 +55（+1.91%） | 2939 +31 （+1.07%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1061.75 +7.5（+0.71%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 293.7 +1.3（+0.44%） | n ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported an increase in gold and silver prices on May 22, with gold T+D rising by 0.97% and silver T+D increasing by 0.84% [1] Price Movements - Gold T+D price reached 776.0 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.97% increase [1] - Silver T+D price reached 8268.0 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 0.84% increase [1]

华阳股份 20250521 摘要 公司预计煤炭价格底部在 600 元/吨，主要基于秦皇岛港 5,500 大卡市 场价判断，受一季度暖冬及疆煤外运等因素扰动，但迎峰度夏或支撑煤 价，反弹空间或小于预期。 若煤价维持当前 610 元/吨或反弹，长协煤顶格上限 570 元/吨执行问题 不大；若跌至 580 元/吨左右，需与客户调整，但保供政策和行业合作 关系短期内可维持价格稳定。 公司保供煤指标 1,909 万吨，总产量 3,500 万吨中约 1,600 万吨为市 场煤，随行就市，因此公司业绩对市场煤价波动较为敏感。 公司 2025 年生产目标 3,800 万吨，前四个月产销率 100%。七元矿井 预计下半年投产贡献 150 万吨，玻璃矿井年底联试，明年贡献 150 万 吨，于家庄资源处于碳转化阶段，短期内不贡献产能。 新建七元和玻璃矿井以动力末煤为主，初期成本较高，但后续降本空间 大，单工效率将明显改善。七元无烟煤热值 5,500-5,700 大卡，利润较 高，主要客户为五大电厂。 Q&A 截至 2025 年 5 月中旬，公司在煤炭生产方面的情况如何，包括产量、销量以 及长协煤的兑现比例是否有边际变化？ 在煤炭产 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 21 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年05月21日 华源晨会精粹 20250521 固定收益 "科创债"新政首周，有何特征？——信用债热点事件系列：科创债新政 后首周，银行是科创债发行的绝对主力，且银行以国股大行为主。从首周的发行情 况来看，科创债的发行主体明显呈现高评级、央国企的特征。从资金用途的变化来 看，本次"科创债"新政放宽了对科创债募集资金用途的限制。目前，已发行的科 创债所创设的创新条款主要包括转股选择权、超额增发权等，也有信用增进机构为 部分已发行科创债创设了信用风险缓释凭证（CRMW）。我们认为，在当前政策支 持和市场高关注度的背景之下，叠加科创债相关政策和发行条款的多元化创新，短 期内科创债的信用风险整体较低。目前科创债发行整体尚未放量，尤其是股权投资 机构科创债目前发行规模整体不大，建议选择资质良好的发行主体，并关注其科创 债一级发行的投标机会。结构上来看，建议择优关注设置了转股选择权、票面利率 挂钩等创新条款，或由第三方增信机构创设了相应信用风险缓释凭证的科创债，博 弈科创债上市初期流动性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price is approaching 60,000 yuan per ton, with significant fluctuations observed in the lithium battery industry since 2010, currently experiencing a second wave of price volatility since 2020 [1][2] Industry Overview - Lithium carbonate prices have dropped significantly from a peak of nearly 600,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to around 60,000 yuan per ton currently, indicating a severe market correction [1][2] - The lithium industry has experienced two major price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with the first cycle from 2015 to 2019 and the current cycle starting in 2020 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to an increase in supply and lower-than-expected downstream demand, leading to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [2][3] - Current lithium carbonate prices have fallen below the breakeven point for processing companies, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises, which may be forced to reduce or halt production [2][3] Price Trends and Forecast - Short-term forecasts indicate that lithium carbonate prices may continue to experience downward pressure due to high inventory levels and a lack of significant production cuts from salt lake operations [3][4] - Long-term projections suggest that lithium carbonate prices may stabilize between 50,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton, depending on supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements [4][5] Company Performance - Major lithium companies such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Shengxin Lithium have reported losses due to the declining lithium carbonate prices, while companies with low-cost salt lake lithium extraction technologies have managed to remain profitable [5] - The gross profit margins for lithium products vary significantly, with salt lake companies achieving margins around 50.68%, while other major players report much lower margins [5]

油价在震荡中小幅下跌，因更广泛的金融市场疲软，对伊朗的制裁是放松还是收紧的不确定性挥之不 去。 在其他地方，康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）首席执行官Ryan Lance表示，他认为美国页岩油产量尚未 达到峰值。他补充道，价格持续在50美元左右将导致缓慢下降，但在60美元左右产量将趋于平稳。交易 员一直在关注油价下跌对美国供应影响的迹象。 价格 纽约7月交割的WTI下跌0.2%，收于62.03美元。六月期货周二到期。 布伦特原油下跌0.2%，收于每桶65.38美元。（小晨编译） 自上周以来，油价一直在波动，关于伊朗-美国谈判命运的头条新闻喜忧参半，这可能为更多桶原油重 返预计今年晚些时候供应过剩的市场铺平道路。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正在撤回结束乌克兰和俄罗斯 战争的努力，这增加了全球的不确定性。 BOK Financial Securities交易高级副总裁Dennis Kissler表示："目前，在了解欧佩克、伊朗和俄罗斯的传 奇故事如何发展之前，这只是一条通往原油'无处可去'的道路。" 在中美贸易战缓和后，原油在4月份下跌19%后，本月出现反弹。最近几周几种精炼燃料相对于原油的 溢价飙升，这可 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D rose by 2.75% to 773.23 yuan per gram on May 21 [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T+D increased by 2.08% to 8240.0 yuan per kilogram on May 21 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent safety incident at the subsidiary of Dayou Energy has exacerbated the company's operational challenges, with significant implications for its revenue and production capacity [1][3][4]. Group 1: Incident Details - On May 15, 2024, Dayou Energy's wholly-owned subsidiary, Mengjin Coal Mine, experienced an accident resulting in one fatality, leading to a suspension of operations [1][3]. - The accident occurred near the safety exit of the mining face, caused by a coal cutter colliding with a drill rod, which injured a worker who later died in the hospital [3][4]. - Mengjin Coal Mine contributes 12.71% of the company's coal production and 11.78% of its revenue, with a projected output of 123.05 million tons and revenue of 5.81 billion yuan for 2024 [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Dayou Energy has faced declining revenues and continuous losses, with a total loss of approximately 1.88 billion yuan over the past two years [1][11]. - The company's revenue has been decreasing since 2023, with the net profit attributable to shareholders showing persistent losses [1][11]. - The company's financial instability is highlighted by its high asset-liability ratio, which reached 70.61% as of March 2024, the highest level in its history [13]. Group 3: Research and Development - Dayou Energy's R&D investment has decreased for three consecutive years, dropping from 205 million yuan in 2021 to 154 million yuan in 2024 [2][8]. - The reduction in R&D spending raises concerns about the company's safety awareness and technological capabilities, potentially contributing to the frequency of accidents [8]. Group 4: Historical Context and Industry Comparison - Dayou Energy has a history of safety incidents, including a significant fire in 2023 that resulted in five fatalities and highlighted deficiencies in safety measures [5][6]. - The company's profitability has been volatile, with multiple years of losses linked to fluctuations in coal prices, contrasting with industry leader China Shenhua, which has maintained profitability [12].