所以，对于特朗普接下来的行动，我们完全不必着急。我们大不了苦上两个月三个月，美国可就不一样了。特朗普这么一闹，出来反对他的，从民主党到未 来很多共和党人都会反对。因为共和党原本的 5 个铁盘州，都快倒向民主党了，这影响非常大。他一上台，搞崩了美股市场，整个美股蒸发了 4 万亿美元市 值。现在美国底层老百姓因物价问题压力山大，从有钱人到没钱人，都被他得罪光了。以后谁还支持共和党，支持特朗普？他之前画的那些大饼，说要让制 造业回流，关税折腾了这么久，有哪家跨国公司愿意把工厂搬到美国？没有，因为开公司的都知道，供应链不是一天能建立起来的，而是历经多年形成，且 供应链非常复杂，地区人才优势的形成也非一朝一夕之功。 特朗普任期仅四年，却搞出这么大动静。若这些举措真能见效，起码得十年以上。但十年之后，若持续如此，美国经济还能撑得住吗？不出意外，今年美国 经济就将面临滞胀风险，而且这次是人为造成的滞胀。美国本来有经济硬着陆风险，本可通过经济手段调整，可特朗普却直接让美国经济硬着陆。 特朗普执政 100 天，真的创造了一个历史记录，基本上把该得罪的、不该得罪的都得罪光了。你以为他只是得罪中国吗？并非如此，他得罪更多的是美国内 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's tariff policies on American businesses, highlighting the confusion and chaos experienced by various industries due to these measures [2][3][4] - Many companies are facing increased costs and supply chain disruptions, leading to a decline in product demand and potential bankruptcies [2][4][5] - The tariffs have prompted some businesses to relocate production to countries like Vietnam and Mexico, resulting in higher operational costs and longer supply chains [3][5] Group 2 - The agricultural sector is particularly affected, with reports of canceled orders from China for U.S. agricultural products, leading to decreased net income for American farms [4][6] - The environmental impact of the tariffs is also noted, as companies shift production to regions with less developed industrial bases, potentially increasing carbon emissions [5][6] - The article emphasizes that the tariffs disproportionately harm low-income households, as they face higher prices for essential goods, exacerbating income inequality [6][7] Group 3 - The article suggests that Trump's tariff strategy is a form of unilateral protectionism that undermines global trade governance, replacing multilateral agreements with bilateral coercion [9][10] - The long-term consequences of these policies may lead to a breakdown of the World Trade Organization's dispute resolution mechanisms, pushing the global economy towards a "zero-sum game" scenario [9][10] - Overall, the article argues that the tariffs represent a blend of populism and monopolistic capitalism, with far-reaching implications beyond just economic factors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. government tariff policies have led to a significant decrease in cargo throughput at the Port of Los Angeles, impacting the surrounding supply chain and labor market [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Labor Market - The reduction in cargo throughput has directly affected the livelihoods of dockworkers and truck drivers, with many expressing anger over lost business and potential bankruptcy [3]. - Trucking company representatives report that issues such as delays in obtaining parts for trucks have become problematic due to the tariff policies, leading to increased costs for non-original parts [4]. Group 2: Cargo Volume and Shipping Trends - Approximately 45% of the business at the Port of Los Angeles comes from goods imported from China, and under the new tariff policies, major U.S. retailers have suspended shipments of Chinese products [4]. - A forecast indicates that cargo volume arriving at the Port of Los Angeles in May is expected to decline by 35% compared to the same period last year, with 17 out of 80 scheduled cargo ships already canceled [4][5]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumer Impact - Retailers had stockpiled inventory prior to the implementation of the tariff policies, which may delay the negative impacts on shipping volumes for 5 to 7 weeks [5]. - A game store owner reported having a large inventory that could last until September, indicating a temporary buffer against immediate supply chain disruptions [6][8]. Group 4: Manufacturing and Economic Outlook - The National Retail Federation predicts that U.S. container imports will decline by over 20% year-on-year by the second half of 2025, which is expected to lead to rising consumer prices [9]. - The concept of "manufacturing return" to the U.S. is viewed as unrealistic, as the experience and infrastructure built in China cannot be easily replicated elsewhere [9].

美国政府近期一系列关税政策导致美国中小零售商普遍陷入涨价或断货的两难境地。近日，央视记者采 访了一位从事中美跨境物流的业内人士，他表示，美国关税政策正在引发"比价格上涨更严重"的市场混 乱和恐慌。(央视新闻) ...

1.【南航接收今年首架国产C919飞机】南航5月1日披露第四架C919正式入列。这也是中国商飞今年 向航司交付的第一架C919客机。南航C919已开通7条航线，今年计划接收12架。国航、东航今年计划 分别接收10架C919。 2.【苹果手机为何无法在美制造？全球供应链难迁移】英国《金融时报》网站日前发表题为《特朗普 政府为何不能在美国制造苹果手机》的文章。文章称，只需查看苹果手机的内部，就能清楚地证明苹 果的供应链已经变得多么复杂——这也是为什么分析人士认为，美国幻想通过加征关税让制造业回流 美国的"愿景"不切实际。苹果手机的新机型是由大约2700个不同零部件组成的精密拼图。苹果在28个 国家和地区拥有187家供应商。数据显示，目前只有不到5%的苹果手机零部件在美国制造。有人预 测，如果完全在美国组装，那么一部苹果手机的成本可能高达3500美元。而苹果公司的生产很难转移 到美国的原因并不单纯是人工成本。更大的问题在于无法转移几十年间建立起来的复杂全球供应链。 （CCTV国际时讯） 3.【X200 Ultra部分版本缺货： vivo回应预估销量保守】vivo产品经理韩伯啸公开表示： "X200 Ultra一些颜 ...

据和讯网消息，据北京日报，外交部发言人主持例行记者会。有外媒记者提问，美国财长周三表示，中 国依赖出口发展经济的模式是不可持续的，并且对世界造成了影响。中方对此有何评论？发言人指出， 我们看到的事实是，美方滥施关税，严重破坏世贸组织规则，损害的是各国人民的共同利益。 贝森特的公开声明强调，中国依赖出口的经济模式不仅会损害中国自身，也会对全球造成负面影响。他 同时宣称美国并非孤军奋战，而是联合贸易伙伴共同迎战所谓的贸易失衡问题。尽管贝森特强调美国及 其盟友的合作，实际情况是美国投资者对政府政策的反复无常深感头疼。同时，贝森特所描述的关税战 背后的逻辑也存在显著争议。通过制造业回流来解决贸易失衡问题，看似合理，但实际上基于美国当前 的经济构成和制造成本并不具有竞争优势。 美国财政部长贝森特（资料图） 显然美国只关注到自身商品贸易逆差，而中国国务院新闻办公室发布《关于中美经贸关系若干问题的中 方立场》白皮书显示，2023年美国对华服务贸易顺差为265.7亿美元，维持顺差持续增长的趋势；2022 年美资企业在华销售额4905.2亿美元，远高于中资企业在美786.4亿美元的销售额，差额高达4118.8亿美 元，综合考虑 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the failure of the "Made in America" initiative under Trump's tariff policies, showing that American consumers prioritize price over the origin of products when quality is equal [1][25]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - A test conducted by the owner of the American shower brand Afina revealed that the "Made in China" version of a showerhead sold for $129, while the "Made in America" version was priced at $239, leading to zero sales for the American version [6][8]. - Over 25,650 visitors viewed the products, with only 24 adding the American version to their cart and 584 purchasing the Asian-made version, indicating a strong preference for lower-priced goods [7][11]. - The results of the experiment demonstrated that during economic downturns, consumers are more sensitive to price than to the product's origin [11][27]. Group 2: Economic Context - The underlying issue is the poor economic conditions in the U.S., with rising prices making "Made in America" products unaffordable for many consumers [13][21]. - Trump's tariff policies, intended to protect domestic industries, have inadvertently led to increased costs for small businesses, making it difficult for them to compete with cheaper imports [21][25]. - The article notes that despite the tariffs, a significant portion of Walmart's global procurement still comes from China, highlighting the intertwined nature of U.S.-China trade relations [25][27]. Group 3: Manufacturing Challenges - The owner of Afina expressed challenges in relocating production to the U.S. due to high costs and a lack of skilled labor and large manufacturing facilities [18][20]. - The complexity of producing showerheads in the U.S. includes sourcing materials and assembly, which is currently more efficient in Asia [18][20]. - The article emphasizes that the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturing extends beyond low prices, as it has developed a comprehensive industrial system capable of rapid response to market demands [23][25].

加征关税后，洛杉矶港口来自中国的货轮锐减33%，全美超市货架空置率飙升至30%，沃尔玛等企业库存告急，甚至不得不暂停部分商品的促销活动。 美国消费市场不能承受之重的是，关税成本最终转嫁给了美国消费者。 特朗普的"关税大棒"砸到了美国人自己的脚上。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)报道，当地时间4月21日，沃尔玛、家得宝、塔吉特等美国零售巨头的CEO们集体现身白宫，与特朗普闭门会谈。 本次会议并未被列入总统的公开行程，但知情人士透露，美国零售巨头们私下警告：美政府全面关税政策可能严重扰乱供应链，并在未来数周导致美国超 市的货架空空如也。 尽管没有明确报道特朗普对于零售巨头们的警告有如何反应，但这场会议结束不到一周，沃尔玛便紧急通知中国江浙地区的供应商恢复出货，并承诺"所 有新增关税由美国客户承担"。 从强硬施压中国供应商分担成本，到主动"认怂"自行消化关税，沃尔玛的180度大转弯，折射出的不仅是美国零售巨头的生存危机，更是特朗普贸易政策 的脆弱。 特朗普的关税政策初衷是逼迫制造业回流美国，但现实却是"搬起石头砸自己的脚"。 中国作为全球供应链的核心，为美国零售业提供了超50%的日常商品，从服装、玩具到电子配 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in North America has stabilized, while European operations continue to grow, with Q1 results exceeding expectations [1][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -151 million yuan [5][15]. - The company is expected to see a profit rebound, with projections for net profit in 2025 and 2026 at 307 million yuan and 464 million yuan respectively [15]. Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit of 58.72 million yuan, up 196.2% [5][7]. - Domestic and overseas sales for 2024 were 1.48 billion yuan and 6.75 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 6.7% [6]. - The company's self-owned brand revenue reached 1.13 billion yuan domestically, reflecting a 3.6% increase [6]. Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 36.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 39.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The gross margin for the company's self-owned brand in 2024 was 46.0%, down 0.7 percentage points [10]. Cost Structure - The company's expense ratio for 2024 was 35.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13]. - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased to 34.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a rebound in profits due to the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and domestic demand stimulation policies [14]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained, with 2027 revenue projected at 12.73 billion yuan [15]. - The company is expected to benefit from reduced reliance on major clients, with the top five clients accounting for 16.2% of revenue in 2024, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in North America has stabilized, while European operations continue to grow, with Q1 results exceeding expectations [1][5] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -151 million yuan [5][15] - The company is expected to see profit recovery, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating a gradual increase in revenue and net profit [15] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit of 58.72 million yuan, up 196.2% [5][15] - Domestic and overseas sales for 2024 were 1.48 billion yuan and 6.75 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 6.7% [6] - The company's self-owned brand achieved revenue of 1.13 billion yuan domestically, reflecting a 3.6% increase [6] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 36.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 39.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The gross margin for the company's self-owned brand in 2024 was 46.0%, down 0.7 percentage points [10] Cost Structure - The company's expense ratio for 2024 was 35.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased to 34.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13] Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for profit elasticity due to the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and domestic demand stimulation [14] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained, with 2027 revenue projected at 12.73 billion yuan [15] - The company is expected to benefit from reduced reliance on major clients, with the top five clients accounting for 16.2% of revenue in 2024, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [14]