Core Insights - Interest rates are a core component of monetary policy adjustments by central banks, directly impacting the foreign exchange market through currency supply and demand, market expectations, capital flows, and policy differentiation [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Effects - Rate hikes attract capital inflows, reduce currency circulation, and strengthen the domestic currency, with the Federal Reserve's rate hikes typically leading to a stronger US dollar [2] - Rate cuts decrease the attractiveness of domestic assets, leading to capital outflows and currency depreciation [3] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations often preemptively incorporate interest rate decisions, and discrepancies between actual decisions and expectations can lead to significant currency fluctuations [4] - Forward guidance from central banks directly influences market expectations, as indicated by Powell's comments in May 2025, which suggested a higher threshold for rate cuts, resulting in a short-term strengthening of the dollar [4] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - Tariff policies, such as those from the Trump administration, may increase inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates to control prices, indirectly supporting the dollar [5] - Differentiation in central bank rate decisions can lead to currency fluctuations, exemplified by the significant drop in the GBP against the NOK when the Bank of England cut rates while the Norwegian central bank held rates steady in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Arbitrage and Capital Flows - Interest rate differentials drive arbitrage, where investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in high-rate currency assets, increasing demand for high-rate currencies [6] - Changes in liquidity due to central bank balance sheet adjustments can indirectly alter exchange rates, as seen when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction decreases dollar supply, potentially supporting its value [6] Group 5: Short-term vs Long-term Impacts - Short-term volatility in the foreign exchange market often occurs following interest rate announcements due to emotional market reactions [7] - Long-term currency trends are determined by the overarching direction of monetary policy [8] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current global monetary policy divergence, coupled with uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, has led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [9] - Key areas for investor focus include the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, potential adjustments in response to inflation or economic data, geopolitical risks from escalating trade tensions, and emerging market currency crises [9] - Arbitrage opportunities driven by interest rate differentials and capital flows will remain central to short-term trading strategies [9]

Group 1: US Dollar and Federal Reserve - Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated that it is "uncertain" whether interest rates will be adjusted before September, indicating that all future scenarios are possible [1] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - The British Pound continued its upward trend on Monday, reaching its highest level against the US Dollar since February 2022 [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizumi stated that there is a need for ongoing review of US tariffs [1] - According to South Korean YTN TV, US officials requested South Korea to address the trade deficit issue during recent talks [1] - Japan plans to utilize 9 trillion yen in national funds for an emergency aid plan related to US tariffs, drawing from budget reserves and existing budgets [1] Group 3: Other Market News - Bulgaria is expected to receive EU approval to join the Eurozone next year [2] - Thailand's Finance Minister indicated that the strength of the Thai Baht is driven by short-term capital inflows [2] - Sources reported that the Reserve Bank of India has suggested domestic banks start providing Rupee loans in Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka [2]

金十图示：2025年05月23日（周五）美盘市场行情一览 3.946 -0.053 -1.33% | | 欧元/美元 | 1.133 | +0.45% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EURUSD | | | | | 英镑/美元 GBPUSD | 1.349 | +0.56% | | E | 美元/日元 USDJPY | 142.812 | -0.83% | | | 澳元/美元 AUDUSD | 0.645 | +0.69% | | F | 美元/瑞郎 USDCHF | 0.823 | -0.65% | | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.595 | | +0.98% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H | 英镑/日元 GBPJPY | 192.658 | | -0.29% | | | | 虚拟货币 VIRTUAL CURRENCY | | | | 13 | 比特币 1 BTC | 109055.920 -2640.290 | | -2.36% | | L | 菜特币 LTC | 99.010 | -1.250 | -1.25% | ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1064.240, down by 11.040 or 1.03% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1010.500, down by 15.000 or 1.46% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3289.600, down by 27.000 or 0.81% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 32.890, down by 0.685 or 2.04% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.129, down by 0.32% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.340, down by 0.16% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 143.654, down by 0.01% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.642, down by 0.28% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.827, up by 0.23% [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 110805.220, up by 1161.220 or 1.06% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 98.470, up by 1.380 or 1.42% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2656.820, up by 105.920 or 4.15% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.421, up by 0.026 or 1.10% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.005 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.136, down by 0.021 or 0.51% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.594, down by 0.003 or 0.07% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 5.101, up by 0.012 or 0.24% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.805, up by 0.048 or 1.01% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.643, up by 0.001 or 0.04% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.316, up by 0.011 or 0.33% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.645, down by 0.003 or 0.08% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.556, down by 0.005 or 0.32% [7]

Group 1: US Dollar - The US House of Representatives is set to vote on Trump's tax reform bill [2] - US Commerce Secretary Ross expressed the desire to reach trade agreements with "most" major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [2] - National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that if a 3% growth is achieved, Trump's tax plan could balance the budget, predicting economic growth to exceed 3% [2] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 41 economists believe Trump's policies have negatively impacted the US economy, with 23 stating the impact is significant; the US economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with April's survey [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - Japanese central bank board member Noguchi stated that there is no need for significant adjustments to the existing balance sheet reduction plan, with intervention only necessary in case of "serious disruptions" in the bond market [3] - The US Treasury confirmed that the current USD/JPY exchange rate reflects fundamental conditions, with no discussions on exchange rate levels [3] - A Reuters survey revealed that two-thirds of Japanese companies want the Bank of Japan to pause interest rate hikes due to Trump's tariff measures [3] - The German Economic Expert Council downgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 0.0% [3] - European Central Bank Vice President de Guindos noted that Eurozone bond yields have decoupled from the US, with the interest rate differential remaining manageable; to prevent inflation from falling below 2%, rates may need to drop below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2% [3] Group 3: Other Developments - The Thai Commerce Minister expressed a desire for a weaker Thai Baht [4] - Bank of America recommended a bullish stance on the Euro against the Mexican Peso, stating that the Peso is overvalued [4] - The Bank of Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 5.5%, in line with market expectations [4]

FOREIGN EXCHANGE 欧元/美元 1.128 +1.05% EURUSD 英镑/美元 1.339 +0.80% GBPUSD 美元/日元 In -0.56% 144.803 USDJPY 澳元/美元 +0.62% 0.644 AUDUSD 美元/瑞郎 0.833 -0.55% USDCHF | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.591 | | +0.60% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机 | 英镑/日元 GBPJPY | 193.874 | | +0.24% | | | | 虚拟货币 VIRTUAL CURRENCY | | | | B | 比特币 1 BTC | 102915.500 -3527.340 | | -3.31% | | 1 | 菜特币 LTC | 95.610 | -5.320 | -5.27% | | | 以太坊 ETH | 2409.830 | -87.660 | -3.51% | | | 瑞波币 XRP | 2.316 | -0.112 | -4.63% | TREASURY BONDS 金十图示：2025年05月19日（周一） ...

FOREIGN EXCHANGE 欧元/美元 1.120 +0.16% EURUSD 英镑/美元 -0.10% 1.329 GBPUSD 美元/日元 III -0.11% 145.535 USDJPY 澳元/美元 0.642 +0.23% AUDUSD 美元/瑞郎 0.837 +0.13% USDCHF | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.590 | | +0.49% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ne | 英镑/日元 GBPJPY | 193.431 | | -0.20% | | | | 荒拟货币 | | | | | | VIRTUAL CURRENCY | | | | 15 | 比特币 11 BTC | 103796.910 +33.200 | | +0.03% | | 1 | 菜特币 LTC | 100.830 | +1.570 | +1.58% | | | 以太坊 ETH | 2625.050 | +76.360 | +3.00% | | | 瑞波币 XRP | 2.430 +0.044 | | +1.86% | TREASURY BONDS 美国2年期 ...

韩国财政部：将继续监控金融和外汇市场；韩国金融、外汇市场整体走势稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean Ministry of Finance is closely monitoring the financial and foreign exchange markets, indicating a proactive approach to market stability [1] - The overall assessment of the market is stable at present, suggesting no immediate concerns regarding volatility or significant fluctuations [1]

韩国财政部：正密切关注金融市场和外汇市场，市场目前总体稳定。 ...