Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including domestic economic recovery and macroeconomic policies, with expectations for continued stability and potential mild appreciation in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1643, an increase of 58 basis points from the previous close [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore and offshore RMB to USD exchange rates rose by 1.82% and 2.45%, respectively [1]. - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 298 basis points in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - The decline of the US dollar index by 10.79% in the first half of the year contributed to the strengthening of the RMB [2]. - Domestic policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments provided significant support for the RMB exchange rate [2]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore, and central parity rates indicates a potential convergence of these rates, suggesting a more stable exchange environment [2]. Group 3: Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - Experts predict that the RMB may experience mild appreciation due to favorable external and internal factors [2]. - Continued domestic growth policies are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the exchange rate [2]. - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foreign exchange market, including the introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures trading, which may further support the RMB's stability [3]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Risk Management - The maturity and rationality of market participants have improved, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rising to around 30% [3]. - The ability to manage exchange rate fluctuations has significantly increased, bolstering confidence in maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing mixed movements, with the euro underperforming against the dollar while the British pound continues to rise. The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. employment data for further direction. Currency Movements - The euro to dollar exchange rate has been low, trading around 1.1800 [1] - The British pound has increased for four consecutive days, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The dollar to yen has rebounded to around 144.00, following the dollar's overall rebound [1] - Australia's trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in May, putting pressure on the Australian dollar, which is trading below 0.6600 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is trading positively around 0.6050 [1] - The dollar to Canadian dollar is in negative territory, close to 1.3585 [1] Employment and Interest Rate Outlook - The ADP employment numbers have turned negative for the first time in over two years, leading to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2] - A majority of strategists in a Reuters survey expect the dollar positions to remain stable or see an increase in net shorts by the end of July [6] Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering a supportive policy stance, with some members indicating no urgency to lower rates [10][11] - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member suggests five rate cuts may be needed by 2025 [9] - The Bank of Japan is contemplating further adjustments to its monetary easing if positive corporate behavior is confirmed [11] Technical Analysis - The euro/dollar pair is in a correction phase after nine consecutive days of increases, with limited downside potential [14] - The dollar/yen is testing key support levels, with critical support identified at 141.500 [15] - The Australian dollar may be forming a "evening star" pattern, indicating a potential reversal and deeper correction if it breaks below 0.6550 [15] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, which are expected to influence market sentiment [16]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月3日） 其它： 3. 韩国总统李在明：无法确定是否能在7月8日前完成与美国的关税谈判。双方在谈判中并不真正清楚各 自的具体诉求。 美元： 5. 特朗普称鲍威尔应立即辞职，并援引美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）署长有关国会应调查鲍威尔的报 道。 6. 路透调查：52位策略师中有42位表示，到7月底美元仓位预计将保持稳定，或净空头将增加。 主要非美货币： 1. 路透调查：预计欧元兑美元六个月后为1.18，一年后为1.20（6月调查时分别为1.15和1.18）。 6. 日本央行审议委员高田创：如果能够确认企业的积极行为得以持续，日本央行应继续进一步调整货币 宽松程度。 4. 路透调查：11位经济学家中有10位预计以色列央行将在周一维持基准利率在4.5%不变，其中一位预 期将降息25个基点至4.25%。 欧元/美元 1. ADP就业人数两年多来首次"转负"，利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降息。 2. 贝森特：美联储可能在9月或更早降息。 3. 美联储巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性。 4. 美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）呼吁国会调查美联储主席鲍威尔。 2. 英国首相斯塔默：里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, particularly focusing on the movements of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies, highlighting significant changes in response to the release of the ADP employment data. Currency Movements - The US dollar rose by 0.17% against the Japanese yen, closing at 143.66 yen, showing an M-shaped pattern of rise and fall throughout the day [1] - The dollar sharply dropped from around 144.20 to nearly 143.40 following the release of the ADP employment data [1] - The euro increased by 0.08% against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.64%, experiencing a rapid decline from approximately 197.500 to around 196.000 [1] Other Currency Pairs - The euro fell by 0.08% against the US dollar, while the British pound dropped by 0.81% against the dollar and by 0.74% against the euro [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.04% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.18% and the Canadian dollar decreased by 0.40% [1] - The Swedish krona declined by 0.42% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krone increased by 0.06% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 0.08% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty decreased by 0.41% against the US dollar and by 0.34% against the euro [1]

Group 1: USD Outlook - The USD's performance is influenced by the Federal Reserve's data-dependent stance and recent strong economic data, alongside looming trade tariff risks [1][2] - The upcoming employment and inflation data are crucial for the USD, especially after recent JOLTS and ISM manufacturing index data indicated labor market resilience and potential inflation pressure [2][4] - The Senate's approval of a debt bill is expected to increase significant debt, but the bond market's muted reaction suggests that expectations for early Fed easing are cushioning its impact [2] Group 2: Euro Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are maintaining a wait-and-see approach, aligning with their hawkish shift in June, as they await further data [7] - The euro's strength has become a focal point, with comments from ECB Vice President Guindos indicating a tolerance limit for the euro/USD at 1.20, but the euro's movement is primarily driven by the USD [8] - If US non-farm data significantly underperforms expectations, the euro/USD may quickly test the 1.20 level [8] Group 3: GBP Outlook - Political uncertainty in the UK is highlighted by the government's cancellation of welfare cuts, which may increase the likelihood of tax hikes in the fall, posing potential challenges to the economic outlook [9] - The UK bond market has reacted calmly, partly due to the Bank of England's Governor Bailey hinting at a potential slowdown in quantitative tightening, providing some support for the GBP [9] - The lack of significant UK data releases in the short term means that market focus will be on upcoming data performance to assess whether the euro/GBP can sustain a breakthrough above the 0.8600 level [10]

1. 韩国央行行长李昌镛：仍继续处于宽松周期中。在决定是否进一步降息时，将密切关注金融稳定风 险。 1. 鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否过早 不排除任何一次会议。 2. 特朗普：不考虑延长关税谈判最后期限 可能提高日本关税。 3. "美联储传声筒"：鲍威尔保持灵活性 降息决策因素发生转变。 4. 美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升至去年11月以来最高。 5. 美国财政部长贝森特：相信美联储会在秋季之前降息，但最迟在9月份肯定会降息。 6. 特朗普税收法案在参议院通过。美国众议院定于当地时间周三就法案进行辩论并投票。 1. 日本央行行长植田和男：当前利率低于中性水平。任何加息措施都将取决于通胀动态的三个要素。 2. 欧洲央行行长拉加德：并未宣告任务完成，但目标已达到。必须保持对通胀的高度警惕。 3. 英国央行行长贝利：利率的走向仍然呈现下行趋势。终端利率的水平存在巨大的不确定性。 4. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧元兑美元汇率在1.17是完全可以接受的，即便是升至1.20，也在可容忍范 围内。但如果进一步超过1.20，情况可能会变得较为复杂。 5. 欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：欧元进一步大幅上涨可能会增加再次降息的理由。 6 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1359.948, increasing by 8.048 or 0.60% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1123.684, increasing by 16.944 or 1.53% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3359.100, increasing by 44.100 or 1.33% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.575, increasing by 0.245 or 0.67% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) increased by 0.13% to 1.180 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) remained unchanged at 1.373 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) decreased by 0.63% to 143.114 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) decreased by 0.15% to 0.657 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) decreased by 0.45% [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 106427.170, decreasing by 719.330 or 0.67% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 85.020, decreasing by 0.980 or 1.14% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2433.590, decreasing by 51.880 or 2.09% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.186, decreasing by 0.050 or 2.24% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.740, increasing by 0.019 or 0.51% [6] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.811, increasing by 0.017 or 0.45% [7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.235, increasing by 0.033 or 0.79% [7] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.765, decreasing by 0.010 or 0.21% [7] - The 10-year UK Treasury yield is at 4.439, decreasing by 0.051 or 1.14% [7] - The 10-year German Treasury yield is at 2.562, decreasing by 0.035 or 1.35% [7] - The 10-year French Treasury yield is at 3.252, decreasing by 0.021 or 0.64% [7] - The 10-year Italian Treasury yield is at 3.468, decreasing by 0.025 or 0.72% [7] - The 10-year Japanese Treasury yield is at 1.394, decreasing by 0.032 or 2.24% [7]

Group 1: US Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Trump believes there is no need to extend the tariff deadline of July 9, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [4] - The US Senate will begin voting on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [4] - Trump suggests that the US should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [4] - A poll shows President Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [4] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, but the impact of tariffs may delay these cuts [4] - The Bank for International Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [4] - The Congressional Budget Office reports that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase US debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [4] Group 2: International Trade Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US [4] - A poll in Japan shows that the support rate for the Shigeru Ishiba cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [4] - The trade agreement reducing tariffs on UK automotive and aircraft parts has come into effect [4]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月26日） 美元： 1. 华尔街日报：特朗普考虑提前任命下一任美联储主席，以削弱鲍威尔的影响力。 2. 摩根士丹利：预计美联储将在2026年进行7次降息，从3月开始，最终利率将降至2.5%至2.75%。 3. 鲍威尔：关税为一次性影响可能成为基本预期，但需要谨慎应对；通胀预期已较今年四月略有下降； 在货币政策决策中不考虑联邦债务问题；稳定币行业已逐步成熟。 4. 柯林斯：当前是保持耐心和谨慎的时机。今年晚些时候可能降息，但取决于关税影响。由于关税措 施，核心个人消费支出通胀预计到年底将超过3%。 其它： 1. 泰国央行：以6比1的投票结果决定维持利率不变。 5. 瑞典央行会议纪要：行长特登称正发出有必要进一步降息的信号，但强调信号不应被过度解读。 2. 消息人士：日本政府将考虑下调今年经济增长预估。 3. 新西兰ASB银行：现在预计新西兰联储官方现金利率将降至3%的低点。 4. 西太平洋银行首席经济学家Luci Ellis：将澳洲联储降息预测提前至7月。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1287.270, increasing by 17.640 or 1.39% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1072.851, increasing by 28.742 or 2.75% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3398.000, increasing by 13.600 or 0.40% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 36.145, increasing by 0.195 or 0.54% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) decreased by 0.30% to 1.149 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) decreased by 0.18% to 1.342 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) increased by 0.82% to 147.298 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) decreased by 0.85% to 0.640 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) decreased by 0.12% to 0.817 [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 101999.990, increasing by 1036.120 or 1.03% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 81.820, increasing by 1.610 or 2.01% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2289.400, increasing by 61.700 or 2.77% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.024, increasing by 0.007 or 0.35% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.887 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.928, decreasing by 0.033 or 0.83% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.338, decreasing by 0.037 or 0.85% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.861, decreasing by 0.028 or 0.57% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.511, decreasing by 0.030 or 0.66% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.502, decreasing by 0.013 or 0.52% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.231, decreasing by 0.014 or 0.43% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.514, decreasing by 0.013 or 0.37% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.409, increasing by 0.016 or 1.15% [7]