以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 对未来行情，大致观点如下： 1、 中期：市场维持重心向上的震荡，未来几周体感依然会不佳，流畅度也一般，但 11月24日可能就是这次重要低点。现在偏向于是未来 春季躁动的预热期。 10月17日和11月24日的低点都是盘中出现过恐慌盘，最好的证明就是这两天的融资盘大幅降低超过280亿元。两次恐慌盘打出的低点都在 3820一带，足以说明这个位置是强支撑。 2、 短期：下周四日本央行利率决议，目前市场预判大概率加息，短期会影响全球市场的流动性 ，但这个事情预期差已经不大，前期也在 盘面上有过表现，所以对市场的影响更偏向短期，相对有限。 3、 方向： 往年 12月由于年末效应，一般资金都偏防御，所以以往这个时间红利方向偏强，但这次12月由于美联储降息同时小幅扩表， 加上中央经济工作会议提到适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等工具，所以流动性上内外双宽松，那么 今年12月应该是小盘成 长方向占优，但不包括微盘股（近期量化消息的影响）。 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航 ...

随着中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作定调，"跨年行情"与"春季躁动"的预期在券商研报中升温。 机构普遍认为，"扩内需、反内卷"的政策红利将引领市场走出通缩路径，而AI算力、商业航天等科技主 线与具备全球竞争力的"出海"品种，则构成了进攻方向。同时，资金对低波动、高股息资产的偏好也值 得关注，市场风格切换或成新看点。 中信证券：配置上要寻求交集，即海外敞口为基底、内需积极变化也会产生催化的品种 国金证券：中央经济工作会议定调扩内需、反内卷，走出通缩路径明晰 本周国内对于基本面预期影响最大的事件便是中央经济工作会议的召开，我们认为在中央经济工作会议 定调扩内需和注重反内卷的背景下，未来国内走出通缩的路径已经明晰： 外需品种是今年已经被充分证实和演绎过的线索，但延续到明年只是既有事实的延续，超预期的空间有 限，赚业绩而不是估值的钱；内需品种目前景气上升的品种有限，且未来的政策以及对于内需的刺激效 果是或有事件，并且今年刚经历过从过高预期到回归现实的修正，但投资者的预期足够低、持仓足够 低，一旦超预期可以享有估值弹性。 从配置角度，最大的交集就是我们此前一直提示的资源与传统制造业领域中国在全球有份额优势的行业 对 ...

人民财讯12月15日电，华泰证券研报称，上周，美联储FOMC会议与中央经济工作会议先后落地，国内 出口、通胀、金融数据先后发布，总量级别的突破或尚需等待，产业线索是投资者交易的重点。11月下 旬以来，AI链带动科技成长整体反弹，而内需顺周期资产调整是对前述变化的"预定价"，上周市场整体 波澜不惊。展望看，华泰证券认为，当前仍处于春季躁动的布局窗口，布局思路做微调，增配季节性/ 产业性/政策性主题品种，减配内需型顺周期。对应地，行业上，建议关注AI算力(关注市场对利空因素 的定价反馈)、锂电/储能、军工、部分化工品、铜、家电(抢出口主题的高胜率行业)。 ...

1．中央经济工作会议：稳中求进、提质增效 【 摘要 】华泰证券何康称，紧缩货币环境改善叠加市场预期升温，"春季躁动"可能在12月中下旬 提前启动。中金公司固收团队称，11月金融数据偏弱，货币政策宽松预期升温增强债券配置吸引 力，短端确定性机会相对更大。 一、焦点锐评 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚 持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提 升宏观经济治理效能。强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。 【解读】中信证券明明指出，会议对宏观经济的定调较去年更加积极，在此背景下明年政策重心 也更加侧重提质增效，财政政策维持必要强度，货币政策灵活高效与之配合。对于债市而言，基 于会议对货币政策降准降息以及对财政扩张相对温和的表态，有望给当前的市场情绪带来一定提 振。 二、权益市场 1.华泰证券：春季躁动或提前启动 华泰证券何康等称，紧缩货币环境改善叠加市场预期升温，"春季躁动"可能在12月中下旬提前启 动。建议注重成长与周期的均衡配置，大金融与高性价比消费 ...

风险提示：内需政策效果低预期、关税加征幅度继续大幅超预期、市场流动性危机等 1 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：陈果投资策略 摘要 本周国内中央经济工作会议定调以及美联储"鸽派行动鹰派言论"的组合落地，A股与港股走势呈现分 化。A股资金倾向提前布局春季躁动，流向高弹性的科技成长方向，港股市场受盈利预期疲弱、美联储 降息指引偏鹰及美债收益率反弹等压制，表现相对疲软。 虽然联储降息，但美债收益率近期呈现上升迹象，显示流动性环境未必那么宽松有利。美股呈现风格切 换，显示市场担心AI应用商业化可能落后于再通胀，市场风险偏好也并没有那么高亢。除了持续跟踪 AI应用进展外，还需关注美联储新主席人选与经济数据验证。特朗普12日打破了"超级鸽派"哈塞特稳操 胜券的预期，也将具有偏鹰派底色的凯文·沃什推向台前，市场对未来货币宽松程度预期也受到影响； 而下周即将到来的"超级数据周"，在经历了10月数据缺失的盲飞期后，11月CPI和就业数据将成为验证 宽松政策效果及通胀反弹风险的首份关键报告。综合看，美股短期波动或仍将维持高位，对A股风险偏 好可能带来扰动。 日本央行加息在即。日本央 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of PPI as a significant macroeconomic theme for 2026, which is expected to strengthen corporate profitability and provide solid fundamental support compared to 2025 [7][19][20] - The report predicts that the net profit growth rate for the non-financial sector of the entire A-share market is expected to exceed 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of PPI [20][22] - The report highlights that the recovery slope of PPI will depend on the degree of fiscal expansion, with a steeper recovery indicating stronger market performance [26][32] Group 2 - The report identifies key industry configurations for 2026, including sectors benefiting from U.S. interest rate cuts, external demand, AI, price increases, and an active capital market [8][19] - Specific sectors such as industrial metals, electric grid equipment, energy storage, battery materials, and certain chemicals are expected to benefit from increased external demand and U.S. capital expenditure expansion [8][19] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, will continue to see high demand and potential growth, with a focus on software, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][19][40] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will present a favorable time window for growth performance, driven by domestic policy initiatives and external interest rate cuts [7][44] - The potential for a "spring rally" is highlighted, with expectations that it may occur earlier than usual due to clearer interest rate cut expectations and favorable market conditions [7][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace of resident deposit migration and foreign capital inflow as critical variables influencing market dynamics [7][36][41]

2025 年 12 月 14 日 市值配售改革受关注，原力数字等 三新股过会 ——北交所策略周报（20251208-20251214） 本周策略观点： 本周市场行情： 北交所新股： 新三板动态： 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 新 三 板 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 专 题 研 究 证券分析师 wangbh@swsresearch.com ⚫ 本周北证 50 上涨 2.79%，成交额环比上升 40.57%。1）本周北交所情绪明显回暖，天 力复合连续两天涨停，北证市场成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the spring market rally is expected to occur, driven by policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and institutional repositioning, despite recent market adjustments [1][5] - Strong expectations are crucial for the strength of the spring rally, which can be influenced by macro fundamentals, corporate earnings trends, and liquidity environment [1][6] - Currently, positive factors are concentrated in technology sectors, with opportunities emerging in oversold growth industries such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment [1][3][7] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes "optimizing" as a priority, focusing on economic potential and structural reforms, with a stable fiscal policy and flexible monetary policy [2][6] - The conditions favoring technology remain unchanged, with growth-type spring rallies historically accounting for nearly 60% of spring market trends, while cyclical rallies account for about 40% [2][6] - Short-term indicators for technology dominance include TMT transaction volume exceeding 40%, while long-term conditions depend on changes in relative profitability [2][6] Group 3 - The market correction is believed to be concluding, and there are recommendations for early positioning in the spring rally, focusing on dual drivers of technology and cyclical opportunities [3][7] - Specific sectors for investment include military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, and core AI hardware, alongside benefits from PPI improvements in solar, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and machinery [3][7] - Long-term investment strategies should include stable dividends, gold, and optimized high-yield stocks [3][7]

责任编辑：杨红卜 华宝 悬 金 vabao WP Fund TE RESERT 2025年12月 | 3A系列ETF当日场内行情 ■ 中证A100ETF基金 中证A500ETF华宝 A50ETF华宝 159596 562000 563500 +1.12% +0.69% +0.83% 数据来源:护深交易所等,行情数据截至 3.18上市,中适A100ETF基金于2022.8.1上 布,中证A500ETF华宇于2024.12.2 当日大市行情 an +0.41% +0.97% +0.84% 创业板指 上证指数 深圳市城 两市成交额2.09万亿元 较上一日+2351亿元 全市场个股涨跌数 2612只 2683 = 162日 =1 上涨 == 持平 "小下跌 资金净流入TOP3行业(申万一级) 机械设备 區伊里區 公用事业 +14.27元 +4.55 元元 +4.6317. 教授事委:并要求职所議。 机构观点 II 开源证券:在本轮估值牛市以及春季躁动期间,科技+周期的双轮驱 动的主线或仍將延续,在全球科技大周期的共振下,科技的相对盈利 与景气优势有望延续。而周期行业在反内卷为主要政策底色背景下, 辅之PPI边际修复与 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **pharmaceutical industry** and its performance in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival and the Two Sessions in China. The focus is on the investment opportunities within the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs and services [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: Historically, small-cap stocks such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 have shown a strong performance with a 90% excess win rate and a median excess return of approximately 3% from the New Year to the pre-Spring Festival period [1][2]. - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector has performed well with a 60% win rate in Q1, particularly peaking at 67% in March, making it the top performer among major styles [2]. - **Pharmaceutical Sector**: Despite recent adjustments, the pharmaceutical sector had a notable performance in February with a 73% excess win rate and a median excess return of 1.1%, ranking it among the top ten in the Shenwan primary industry [1][2]. - **Investment Opportunities**: During the Spring Rally, segments such as innovative drugs, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine are highlighted as key areas for investment due to their growth potential and strong domestic demand [1][5][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Outlook**: By 2026, the pharmaceutical innovation sector is expected to benefit from an engineer dividend, enhancing research efficiency, cost, and speed. The innovative drug market is seen as entering a long-term growth phase, with projections indicating that by 2030, the revenue and profit share from pharmaceutical innovation could rise significantly [2][7]. - **CRO and Life Sciences**: Since 2025, there has been a recovery in demand for Contract Research Organizations (CRO) and upstream life sciences, with a strong rebound anticipated in 2026, particularly in preclinical CROs [8][9]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to recover normal growth by 2026, supported by policy changes and decreasing raw material costs, which will enhance profit growth [10]. - **AI in Healthcare**: The potential for AI in healthcare is significant, with applications in diagnostics and drug discovery. The need for milestone events to catalyze this sector's growth is emphasized [17][20]. Conclusion - The pharmaceutical industry is positioned for growth, with various segments offering unique investment opportunities. The overall sentiment is optimistic, particularly regarding innovative drugs and the recovery of traditional medicine, supported by favorable market conditions and policy changes.