Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce is set to introduce a series of policies to promote service exports, focusing on fiscal, financial, and regulatory measures to reshape the industry landscape and consumer lifestyles [1][2] - In Q1 2025, China's service exports grew by 12.2% year-on-year, with knowledge-intensive service exports increasing to 2.1% and travel service exports leading with a remarkable growth rate of 97.5% [1][3] - Financial innovations, such as targeted export credit insurance, are enabling small and micro enterprises to confidently take on orders and expand their markets, addressing the issue of risk aversion [1][2] Group 2 - The travel service sector has seen significant improvements in consumer experience due to regulatory reforms, with travel service imports and exports reaching 584.9 billion yuan, driven by visa facilitation and optimized duty-free policies [2] - The cross-border flow of data has enabled a digital service import and export value of 2.13 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and enhancing operational efficiency for businesses [2] - The role of service trade intermediary organizations is evolving from a "bridge" to an "engine," facilitating international market expansion and supporting enterprises in establishing overseas marketing networks [2] Group 3 - In the first half of 2025, service exports accounted for 11.5% of total exports, indicating a shift towards a service-oriented economy, with a surplus in knowledge-intensive service exports expanding by 40.92 billion yuan [3] - The combination of precise fiscal funding, financial support for small enterprises, and regulatory innovations is fostering a more dynamic and resilient service consumption market in China [3] - This transformation signifies not only quantitative growth but also qualitative improvements, offering consumers richer choices and better experiences, while paving the way for high-quality economic development driven by services [3]

Group 1 - The core theme of 2024 in China is to boost consumption, with a significant shift towards service consumption, which now accounts for 46.1% of per capita service consumption expenditure, contributing over 60% to consumption growth [1][5][10] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce policies in September aimed at expanding service consumption, addressing the supply-demand gap in quality service offerings [1][5][10] - The "Su Chao" football league phenomenon highlights the insufficient supply of quality service consumption, as evidenced by high attendance and ticket scarcity [3][5][10] Group 2 - The "Su Chao" league has revitalized the domestic sports market, with service revenue from related sectors reaching 379.6 billion yuan, a 42.7% year-on-year increase [7][10] - The government is focusing on enhancing service supply through policies that include interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans [5][7][10] - The rise of "Yue Ji Consumption," characterized by immersive and interactive experiences, is becoming a significant driver of consumer spending among younger demographics [15][19] Group 3 - The Shanghai concert case illustrates the importance of optimizing service offerings, with measures taken to enhance safety and convenience for attendees, resulting in a 75% increase in hotel revenue around the venue [19][20][30] - The introduction of consumption subsidies for elderly care in Chongqing aims to stimulate the elderly service market, potentially unlocking nearly 10 billion yuan in service consumption [27][28][30] - The overall strategy emphasizes the need for improved public services and income support to enhance consumer confidence and spending power, particularly in essential sectors like healthcare and education [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July has narrowed for two consecutive months, with the profits of high - tech manufacturing showing significant year - on - year growth. The real estate market has policies to stimulate growth, and the "AI + Action Opinion" has been issued. Overseas, the US Q2 GDP has been revised upwards. The market volume has reached a high level, and leveraged funds are still flowing in. The mid - cap stocks are stronger than large - cap stocks, which are stronger than small and micro - cap stocks [3]. - During the gap - up rise on Monday this week, the basis quickly declined, indicating weak sentiment on the futures side. IH and IF are still in a state of slight premium, while the annualized discounts of IC and IM have returned to around 8% and 11%, respectively. The term structure has sunk at the near end, and the hedging cost - effectiveness of far - month contracts has increased. The cost - effectiveness of spot - futures arbitrage for near - month contracts has significantly decreased [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - **Basis Changes**: For IF contracts, the basis of IF2509 decreased from 16.00 to 9.44, a change of - 6.56; for IH contracts, IH2509's basis decreased from 13.39 to 3.53, a change of - 9.86; for IC contracts, IC2509's basis decreased from - 12.45 to - 47.14, a change of - 34.69; for IM contracts, IM2509's basis decreased from - 14.34 to - 72.08, a change of - 57.74 [1]. - **Index - enhancing Annualized Returns**: The index - enhancing annualized returns of IC and IM contracts are relatively high, such as 12.1% for IC2509 and 16.7% for IM2509 [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest Changes**: This week, the average daily trading volume of IH was 77,971 lots, a 17.1% increase from the previous week, and the open interest was 108,028 lots, a 4.8% decrease. The average daily trading volume of IF was 177,610 lots, a 36.3% increase, and the open interest was 293,331 lots, a 5.9% increase. The average daily trading volume of IC was 160,370 lots, a 32.9% increase, and the open interest was 248,432 lots, a 6.3% increase. The average daily trading volume of IM was 320,181 lots, a 14.6% increase, and the open interest was 388,014 lots, a 0.8% decrease [4]. - **Basis after Considering Dividends**: For example, for the IF2509 contract, the basis after considering dividends is 11.57, with an expected total dividend of 2.13 points and an annualized premium - discount rate of 4.47% [5]. 2. Hedging Profits and Losses - **IF Contracts**: The hedging profit of IF2509 this week was 6.56, compared with - 8.96 last week; for IF2512, it was 4.96 this week compared with - 10.76 last week [11]. - **IH Contracts**: The hedging profit of IH2509 this week was 9.86, compared with 0.14 last week; for IH2512, it was 12.06 this week compared with 0.34 last week [11]. - **IC Contracts**: The hedging profit of IC2509 this week was 34.69, compared with - 25.12 last week; for IC2512, it was 68.09 this week compared with - 40.12 last week [11]. - **IM Contracts**: The hedging profit of IM2509 this week was 57.74, compared with - 16.96 last week; for IM2512, it was 91.34 this week compared with - 24.56 last week [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the decline of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed for two consecutive months, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased significantly year - on - year, playing a leading role [2]. - Shanghai's six departments jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, stimulating the real estate sector to lead the gains. The trend of real estate stopping decline and stabilizing may be further strengthened [2]. - The State Council issued an "Artificial Intelligence + Action Opinion", and the State Council Information Office press conference stated that policies to expand service consumption would be introduced to stimulate new growth in service consumption [2]. - In the overseas market, the US GDP in the second quarter was revised upwards due to a significant increase in fixed - asset investment, while the PCE price index remained the same as the initial value [2]. - This week, the market trading volume reached a high again, with the total A - share market achieving a turnover of 3.2 trillion yuan in two trading days, ranking second in history. Leveraged funds continued to flow in, with a net inflow of 883 billion yuan this week after a net inflow of over 900 billion yuan last week [2]. - The speculation in micro - cap stocks took a slight rest, the micro - cap index led the decline among core indices, and the market of the STAR Market and ChiNext continued. Overall, mid - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks, and large - cap stocks outperformed micro - and small - cap stocks. The CSI 500 rose more than 3%, leading the core broad - based indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen [2]. - In terms of basis, the basis dropped rapidly during the gap - up on Monday this week, indicating weak sentiment on the futures side. IH and IF were still in a slight premium state, while the annualized discounts of IC and IM returned to around 8% and 11%, respectively, falling into the lower quantile range of history. The near - end of the term structure declined, and the hedging cost - effectiveness of far - month contracts increased. There was still some profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage in near - month contracts, but it had been significantly compressed, and the impact of transaction cost wear was large. The cost - effectiveness of cash - and - carry arbitrage at the current position declined significantly [2]. - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will weaken next week [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Situation This Week - Industrial profit: The decline of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed for two consecutive months, and high - tech manufacturing profits increased significantly year - on - year [2]. - Real estate policy: Shanghai optimized real estate policies, and Beijing and Shanghai implemented policies to stabilize the property market, with the real estate market showing a trend of stopping decline [2]. - Policy on service consumption: The State Council issued an "Artificial Intelligence + Action Opinion", and policies to expand service consumption will be introduced [2]. - Overseas market: The US GDP in the second quarter was revised upwards due to fixed - asset investment growth, and the PCE price index remained unchanged [2]. - Market trading volume: The total A - share market achieved a turnover of 3.2 trillion yuan in two trading days, ranking second in history [2]. - Fund flow: Leveraged funds continued to flow in, with a net inflow of 883 billion yuan this week after over 900 billion yuan last week [2]. - Stock index performance: Mid - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks, and large - cap stocks outperformed micro - and small - cap stocks. The CSI 500 rose more than 3% [2]. - Basis situation: The basis dropped rapidly on Monday, IH and IF were slightly in premium, IC and IM annualized discounts returned to around 8% and 11%, far - month contract hedging cost - effectiveness increased, and near - month contract cash - and - carry arbitrage profit space was compressed [2] Basis Forecast for Next Week - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will weaken next week [3] Recent Forecast Conclusion - There are historical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data in the text [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFTIS) will be held in Beijing from September 10 to 14, focusing on the theme "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewed," highlighting the characteristics of service trade [1][3]. Service Trade Growth - In the first half of this year, China's service import and export total reached 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, marking a historical high for the same period [1]. - Service exports accounted for 11.5% of total exports, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. - The transportation service export reached 418.5 billion yuan, growing by 23.9%, while travel service exports reached 174.87 billion yuan, growing by 68.7%, indicating strong growth in both traditional and emerging service sectors [2][3]. Policy Support - The development of service trade is expected to benefit from global growth, with the WTO projecting a 4.0% increase in global service exports by 2025 [5]. - The Chinese government plans to introduce new policies to support service exports, focusing on financial, regulatory, and market expansion measures [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce is tracking the implementation of the negative list for cross-border service trade and aims to enhance the liberalization and facilitation of service trade [6]. Service Consumption Potential - From January to July, national service retail sales increased by 5.2%, with service consumption becoming a significant driver for service trade growth [7]. - The CIFTIS will feature over 40 supporting activities to integrate service consumption, trade, and investment, promoting new service consumption models [7][8]. - The government will focus on policy promotion, expanding service supply, and innovating service consumption scenarios to stimulate consumption potential [8].

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a strong performance on August 29, with the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) rising by 2.16% and reaching an intraday high of 2.70%, with a trading volume exceeding 13 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye, with Kweichow Moutai hitting the daily limit [2] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has seen a net inflow of over 75 million yuan during the week of August 25 to August 28, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 2 - Ping An Securities noted that the liquor sector is stabilizing at a fundamental level, with mid-year reports addressing historical inventory issues and dividend yields supporting stock prices [3] - Hualong Securities highlighted that the current mid-year reporting period is seeing concentrated performance pressure in the liquor sector, while new consumer brands are experiencing rapid growth [3] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to catalyze consumption in the liquor sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFT) will be held from September 10 to 14 in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewed," highlighting the characteristics of service trade [2][3]. Group 1: Service Trade Growth - In the first half of the year, China's service import and export total reached 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. - The share of service exports in total foreign trade exports reached 11.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3]. - Transportation service exports amounted to 418.5 billion yuan, growing by 23.9%, while travel service exports reached 174.87 billion yuan, with a remarkable growth of 68.7% [4]. Group 2: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The service trade sector is expected to benefit from increased policy support, with the WTO projecting a 4.0% growth in global service exports by 2025 [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce new policies to promote service exports, focusing on financial, regulatory, and international market development [6]. - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.2% from January to July, indicating a shift towards balanced consumption between goods and services [7]. Group 3: Innovation and Consumer Potential - The CIFT will feature over 40 diverse supporting activities, integrating service consumption, trade, and investment [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce aims to enhance service consumption by implementing policies that promote quality and expansion in key areas such as home services and health consumption [8]. - There will be a focus on supporting new business models and consumption scenarios, promoting the integration of commerce, tourism, culture, and sports [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair will be held from September 10 to 14 in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewed," highlighting the characteristics of service trade [2] Group 1: Service Trade Growth - In the first half of the year, China's service import and export total reached 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - Service exports accounted for 11.5% of total foreign trade exports, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Transportation service exports reached 418.5 billion yuan, growing by 23.9%, while travel service exports reached 174.87 billion yuan, growing by 68.7%, making travel the fastest-growing sector [3] Group 2: Policy Support - The development of service trade is expected to benefit from global growth, with the WTO projecting a 4.0% increase in global service exports by 2025 [4] - The Chinese government plans to introduce new policies to support service exports, including financial and regulatory measures [5] - The Ministry of Commerce is focusing on enhancing the role of service trade in the economy, with significant investments in key areas [5] Group 3: Consumer Potential - From January to July, national service retail sales increased by 5.2%, indicating a rising share of service consumption [6] - The upcoming service trade fair will feature over 40 supporting activities, integrating service consumption, trade, and investment [6] - The Ministry of Commerce aims to stimulate service consumption by implementing policies that enhance service quality and expand service offerings [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - China's consumption pattern is shifting towards a balanced stage of goods and service consumption, with a significant emphasis on service consumption as a reflection of consumption upgrading [1][3][4]. Group 1: Service Consumption Growth - From January to July this year, service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a continuous rise in the proportion of service consumption [3]. - Between 2020 and 2024, China's service consumption is expected to grow rapidly, with per capita service consumption expenditure projected to increase by an average of 9.6% annually [3]. - By 2024, per capita service consumption expenditure is anticipated to account for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, contributing 63% to the growth of resident consumption expenditure [3]. Group 2: Importance of Service Consumption - Service consumption is crucial for economic development and improving people's livelihoods, as it can stimulate both life services and productive services, leading to structural optimization and an increase in the value added by the service sector [4]. - The service sector is projected to account for 48.8% of total employment by 2024, with significant growth in sectors such as catering, accommodation, and cultural entertainment [4]. Group 3: Policy Measures to Enhance Service Consumption - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce several policy measures in September to expand service consumption, focusing on enhancing the supply of high-quality services through both domestic and foreign openings [5][6]. - More service consumption sectors will be included in the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Directory," which is expected to enhance the quality of service supply and stimulate market vitality [6]. Group 4: Innovation in Service Consumption - High-quality, diversified, and composite innovative scenarios are identified as key drivers for enhancing and expanding service consumption [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will support the development of new consumption formats and models, promoting activities that integrate commerce, tourism, culture, and sports [7]. Group 5: Upcoming Events and Initiatives - The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) will take place from September 10 to 14 in Beijing, showcasing over 190 key achievements in service trade [8]. - The event will feature various activities aimed at fostering new growth points in service consumption, including cultural markets, gourmet food, and exciting performances [8].

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]