本周全球金融市场的焦点集中在两大事件：乌克兰和谈取得突破性进展、以及美国将公布的重磅经济数据（非农就业 + 通胀）。这两股力量共同推动黄金 在高位急转直下，也让投资者在年末前的最后关键交易周保持高度警惕。 不过，谈判仍存在较大不确定性，尤其是领土问题的敏感性仍未解决。泽连斯基强调，"目前没有理想的和平方案"，美国希望快速推动停火，但乌克兰更在 意"和平的质量"。这意味着地缘风险短期降温，但中长期仍存在反复可能，为黄金提供下方支撑。 与此同时，市场迅速将目光转向美国即将公布的一系列关键经济数据。尤其是因政府停摆而延迟的 10 月与 11 月非农就业报告，本次统计期受技术性因素影 响，可能出现较大"噪音"，让预测区间极为分散。市场预期 10 月就业可能减少 1 万，而 11 月或小幅回升至增加 5 万，但最乐观估计可达 12.7 万，悲观则 可能为负值。失业率则受停摆统计影响，预计短暂升至 4.6%–4.7% 区间。 ▲ATFX图 这份数据不仅决定美元短线方向，更可能影响美联储 2026 年政策路径。目前 CME FedWatch 显示，市场押注 2026 年1 月降息概率高达75.6%，明显高于美 联储自身预测 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月16日，本周全球金融市场的焦点集中在两大事件：乌克兰和谈取得突破性进展、以及美国将公布的 重磅经济数据（非农就业 + 通胀）。这两股力量共同推动黄金在高位急转直下，也让投资者在年末前 的最后关键交易周保持高度警惕。 首先，乌俄和谈传来意外利好。乌克兰总统泽连斯基与美国特使在柏林进行长达五小时的密集谈判，乌 方甚至主动提出暂缓加入北约的提议，被视为重要让步。美国方面随后表示"取得重大进展"，美国总统 特朗普也称"距离和平协议比以往任何时候更近"。欧洲多国领导人快速响应，强调将为乌克兰提供长期 安全与重建支持。这些信号迅速压低避险情绪，使金价从逼近 4350 美元的七周高位迅速回落，周一最 终仅小涨约 0.1%，在 4300 美元附近震荡。 ▲ATFX图 不过，谈判仍存在较大不确定性，尤其是领土问题的敏感性仍未解决。泽连斯基强调，"目前没有理想 的和平方案"，美国希望快速推动停火，但乌克兰更在意"和平的质量"。这意味着地缘风险短期降温， 但中长期仍存在反复可能，为黄金提供下方支撑。 与此同时，市场迅速将目光转向美国即将公布的一系列关键经济数据。尤其是因政府停摆而延迟的 10 月与 ...

| | | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、宏观分析 | | 9 | | 三、基本面分析 | | 19 | | 四、总结和展望 | | 22 | 贵金属年报 2025 年 12 月 图表目录 | 贵金属年报 | 2025 年 12 月 | | --- | --- | | 贵金属年报 | 2025-12 | | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | 摘要： | 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 | | 回顾 2025 年，美国经济指标走弱，美国零售销售、就业数据陆续走弱， | | | 导致美国经济预期恶化。而美国政府关门造成的数据真空也使得美国经济不确 | | | 定性增强，这些都是贵金属价格的支撑之一。除此以外，今年贵金属的主线交 | 研究员：黄思源 | | 易逻辑不断切换：从避险情绪，到关税政策，再到降息预期和白银供需关系。 | 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 | | 这使得贵金属价格在上涨的同时有所分化，白银最终涨幅超过黄金金银比价得 | | | 以修复。 | | | 展望后市，全球贸易格局重塑之下，美元信用受损，金银长线逻辑不变 ...

| 贵金属年报 | 2025 年 12 月 | | --- | --- | | 贵金属年报 | 2025-12 | | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | 摘要： | 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 | | 回顾 2025 年，美国经济指标走弱，美国零售销售、就业数据陆续走弱， | | | 导致美国经济预期恶化。而美国政府关门造成的数据真空也使得美国经济不确 | | | 定性增强，这些都是贵金属价格的支撑之一。除此以外，今年贵金属的主线交 | 研究员：黄思源 | | 易逻辑不断切换：从避险情绪，到关税政策，再到降息预期和白银供需关系。 | 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 | | 这使得贵金属价格在上涨的同时有所分化，白银最终涨幅超过黄金金银比价得 | | | 以修复。 | | | 展望后市，全球贸易格局重塑之下，美元信用受损，金银长线逻辑不变。 | | | 此外，2026 年美联储仍处于降息周期之中，美元指数趋弱将支撑贵金属的金 | | | 融属性溢价，为金银提供持续的驱动。结构上来看，目前白银被列入关键矿物， | | | 全球白银供给缺乏上调能力，而需求端有明显的增量，再加上可 ...

Group 1 - The palladium futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract opening at 410.40 CNY/g and reaching a high of 432.05 CNY/g, reflecting an increase of approximately 4.58% [1] - Analysts from Hualian Futures suggest that the demand for palladium is primarily driven by the automotive sector, but the surge in China's new energy vehicle penetration is suppressing demand growth, leading to limited fundamental support for palladium prices [2] - According to Ruida Futures, the palladium market is shifting from a supply-demand imbalance to a surplus, with expectations of a more relaxed supply-demand dynamic, although the anticipated interest rate cuts may provide some price support [2] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that the relatively undervalued platinum and palladium are attracting bullish funds, with strong demand in commercial aerospace and hydrogen energy sectors, suggesting a clear long-term allocation strategy for platinum and palladium [3] - The market is closely monitoring the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November, which could impact market sentiment and pricing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold continues to rise, with London gold prices breaking through $4,350 per ounce, indicating a renewed interest in gold investments as market conditions improve [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 15, spot gold prices increased, with a peak of $4,350 per ounce recorded [1] - The upward trend in gold prices is accompanied by a growing willingness among investors to allocate funds to gold [1] Group 2: Gold ETF Growth - As of December 12, five gold ETFs have surpassed a management scale of 10 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth in the sector [1] - Leading gold ETF products have experienced rapid expansion throughout the year [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The market is increasingly recognizing the medium to long-term investment value of gold due to expectations of interest rate cuts and a marginal improvement in liquidity conditions [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term outlook for Treasury bond futures is to fluctuate and consolidate, with risks and support factors both present. The medium - term view is that the monetary environment is moderately loose, and Treasury bond futures are expected to be well - supported [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuating", the medium - term view is "fluctuating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuating and consolidating". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectation remains [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. The medium - and long - term monetary environment is moderately loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In the short term, the macro - economic data shows strong resilience, so the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, and the short - term expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Long - term bonds are restricted by the pressure of intensive supply in the first quarter of next year and the continuous improvement of the long - term economic growth outlook, performing relatively weakly. Overall, Treasury bond futures are under pressure and support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5]

12月15日，现货黄金价格继续上行，伦敦金现价盘中一度突破4350美元/盎司。 伴随金价回暖，资金配置黄金的意愿同步升温，黄金ETF年内规模扩张明显。截至12月12日，全市场已 有5只黄金ETF管理规模突破百亿元，头部产品年内实现快速放量。 机构人士指出，在降息预期与流动性环境边际改善的背景下，黄金的中长期配置价值正再度受到市场重 视。 金价走强，黄金ETF规模扩张明显 12月15日，现货黄金价格再度走高，重回阶段性高位，伦敦金现价盘中一度突破4350美元/盎司。回顾 上周走势，国际金价整体呈现平稳上行态势，避险与配置需求对金价形成持续支撑。数据显示，上周伦 敦现货黄金收于4299美元/盎司，周环比上涨2.4%；国内AU9999黄金收于964元/克，周环比上涨1.0%。 但另一方面，鑫元基金也表示，联储内部对通胀与"数据缺口"的担忧上升、点阵图暗示2026年降息有 限，意味着利率下行的顺风未必线性延续，金价上冲后更容易进入"消息驱动+技术面回吐"，全球货币 政策方面，市场对日本央行12月加息的预期升温、欧洲央行偏鹰派的"更长时间按兵不动"取向，可能阶 段性推升全球利率波动并扰动美元与避险资产定价。 责编：杨喻 ...

最新动态及原因 2025年12月15日，铂、把价格均出现大涨，截至14:30，拍主力合约上涨7.0%至482.4元/克，把主力合约上涨5.82%至411.8元/克。其主要原因在于，其一、市场进一步交易美联储融的立 受损所带来的未来降息空间的打开；真二，现货市场供需再度收紧。进入12月后，临近新任美联储主席提名，市场逐渐加强对美联储独立出风险的交易。根据央视财经、当地时间12日，持朗普 表示凯文·沃什已成为下一任美联储主席的头号候选人，并称在降息问题上与自己观点一致，他希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%亮至更低"，以帮助财政部降低美国国贡的高额融资成本。 凯文 法什获得提名的概率大幅提升，截至12月15日，根据Polymarket，凯文·哈塞特被提名的概率降为52%，凯文·沃什被提名的概率上升至40%，我们认为，无论是哪位获得提名，在上任初期他都 将探持帰向部派的政策倾向，加之美国非农数据即将公布，市场认为数据或表现弱势，从而抬升降息预期，贵金属价格获得向上驱动。此外，近期铂金现货市场再度趋于紧张，藏至12月12日， 铂金1个月租赁利率上升至14.12%。双重因素共振下,今日铂把价格出现大涨。 三期货有限公司 ...

Group 1 - The core logic supporting the strengthening of the Japanese yen includes improved manufacturing confidence and inflation levels consistently above policy targets, alongside rising expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike during the December 18-19 policy meeting [1][2] - The recent Tankan survey indicates a significant recovery in Japan's manufacturing sentiment, with both the manufacturing business conditions and outlook indices exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The weakening of the US dollar is attributed to delayed releases of key macroeconomic data and increasing market expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have put significant pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda has publicly stated that the central bank is gradually approaching its inflation target, reinforcing market expectations for a rate hike in the upcoming meeting [2] - Concerns regarding Japan's public finance situation due to Prime Minister Kishida's proposed large fiscal spending plan have somewhat offset the support for the yen stemming from rate hike expectations [2] - The divergence in interest rate expectations between the US and Japan continues to provide support for yen demand as a safe haven [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY exchange rate is under short-term pressure, facing strong resistance near the short-term simple moving average (SMA) [3] - If the key psychological support level is broken, the exchange rate may accelerate its decline towards monthly lows, increasing the likelihood of testing integer levels [3] - Conversely, if the USD/JPY can recover and stabilize above the short-term SMA, it may trigger a short-covering rally, with bulls targeting key resistance levels [3]