环球市场动态 财 政 加 码 助 力 社 融 增 速 平 稳 运 行 A 股周五强势上行，"十五五" 新质 生产力引领大盘；港股上涨，科技 股表现突出；欧洲股市下跌，科技 股担忧引发回调；美股 AI 泡沫忧虑 再现，市场大幅下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场对供应过剩的担忧加剧，上周 五国际油价下跌，纽约期油跌至 5 月以来最低水平；受美国科技股抛 售和美联储官员鹰派言论影响，上 周五伦敦期铜创两个月最大跌幅， 黄金收窄涨幅。 固 定 收 益 美国国债涨跌互现，收益率曲线进 一步趋陡。美联储于上周五开始购 买 400 亿美元国库券。亚洲债市走 势坚挺，利差收窄 1-3 个基点。本 周将有非农就业和 CPI 数据公布， 以及 20 年期美债拍卖。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ▪ 今年 11 月内地社融增速保持平稳，一方面四季度结余额度使用大幅减缓了政府债发行放缓对社融的拖累，另 一方面，企业债融资情况出现明显改善，或反映出在贷款利率管控和融资结构调整背景下，企业发债意愿系统 性提高。我们预计年度社 ...

科技股早盘承压走低，恒科指数一度跌近2%，成份股方面，截至发稿，华虹半导体(01347)跌6.05%， 报67.55港元；阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌2.86%，报149.7港元；腾讯(00700)跌1.46%，报607港元。 消息面上，上周五，博通和甲骨文两大科技巨头利空消息相继引发的AI泡沫担忧再度席卷市场。博通 业绩电话会后跌11%，传出数据中心延期的甲骨文跌4.5%、财报后两日跌近15%。中信建投（601066） 证券认为，短期维度，美科技股调整或对港股形成拖累。中长期维度，今年港股流动性充裕，南向资金 持续流入，目前仍处于美联储降息周期，港股资金面和估值维度均有支撑，具有强产业逻辑板块值得持 续关注。 ...

消息面上，上周五，博通和甲骨文两大科技巨头利空消息相继引发的AI泡沫担忧再度席卷市场。博通 业绩电话会后跌11%，传出数据中心延期的甲骨文跌4.5%、财报后两日跌近15%。中信建投证券认为， 短期维度，美科技股调整或对港股形成拖累。中长期维度，今年港股流动性充裕，南向资金持续流入， 目前仍处于美联储降息周期，港股资金面和估值维度均有支撑，具有强产业逻辑板块值得持续关注。 智通财经APP获悉，科技股早盘承压走低，恒科指数一度跌近2%，成份股方面，截至发稿，华虹半导 体(01347)跌6.05%，报67.55港元；阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌2.86%，报149.7港元；腾讯(00700)跌1.46%， 报607港元。 ...

上周A股市场延续震荡格局，指数表现分化、科技成长占优。尽管重要会议强调对拉动内需的支持，11 月M2和社融规模增速保持稳定，CPI数据也有所回暖，但当前资金依然更青睐科技板块。周内A股交投 活跃度有所回升，日均成交额升至1.95万亿元。风格上看，科技成长领涨而周期、消费普遍下跌。整体 体现为：成长>周期>消费>金融。 金鹰基金表示，近期多项重要会议与数据落地，国内方面，上周政治局会议、中央经济工作会议先后举 行，初步奠定政策基调并明确"扩大内需"、"人工智能+"、"着力稳定房地产市场"等结构性方向。数据 上，11月CPI有所回暖、M2和社融规模增速保持稳定，但居民消费动力仍不足。后续需关注财政提效、 货币适度宽松与结构性政策落地对市场的持续提振。 海外方面，美联储超预期鸽派降息，但联储内部分歧加剧，提前重启技术性扩表应对流动性紧张，资本 市场在降息呵护下软着陆。但上周五科技板块集体下挫，市场对AI泡沫的担忧仍存，市场或呈阶段性 震荡。后续关注本周将公布的11月非农数据、明年初美联储新任主席的提名情况，我们认为美联储在明 年年初降息暂歇后，仍会持续开启降息，温和通胀和疲弱就业或依然支持美联储保持降息路径。 关注 ...

来看详情—— 大消费回暖 乳业概念股活跃 12月15日，A股大消费板块整体回暖。食品饮料板块走高，白酒、乳业等方面强势。欢乐家（300997）20cm涨停，皇台酒业（000995）、皇氏集团 （002329）、阳光乳业（001318）、均瑶健康（605388）等涨停，安记食品（603696）等多股走高。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300997 | 欢乐家 | 27.74 | 4.62 | 19.98% | | വ | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | 4.16 | 0.38 | 10.05% | | ന | | 605388 均瑶健康 | | 7.89 0.72 10.04% | | | 4 | | 000995 | 13.50 | 1.23 | 10.02% | | ഗ | | 001318 阳光乳业 | 16.21 | 1.47 | 9.97% | | 6 | 603696 | 安记食品 | 21.50 | 1.43 | 7.13% | | 7 | | 600429 三元股份 | ...

2025-12-15 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 ◆ 基本面分析 山西铝土矿价格微降，河南铝土矿价格暂稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比持稳于70.5美元/干吨，矿价预计将承压下行。 氧化铝运行产能周度环比上升10万吨至9590万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加10.2万吨至458.5万吨。11月中旬至12月初因技 改、技改试车检修的企业复产完成，同时部分沿海氧化铝企业临时小修，氧化铝行业运行产能整体较为平稳。电解铝运行产能周度 环比增加2万吨至4446.4万吨。减复产能方面，山西朔州能源对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右；新疆个别铝 厂因环保管控有所减产。新投产能方面，天山铝业20万吨周内通电投产、2026年全面达产，扎铝35万吨将建成投产、2026年全 面达产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降0.1%至61.8%。整体需求逐步进入淡季，叠加铝价高位大幅波 动抑 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, short - term high - level decline, long - term short - allocation [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Strong [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level volatility [1] Core Views of the Report - The long - term strategic allocation value of precious metals such as gold and silver remains unchanged, benefiting from factors like global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. For base metals, the market conditions vary. Copper is favored in the long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand, while zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel face different degrees of pressure in the short - to - medium term. Industrial silicon may rebound, polysilicon runs strongly, and lithium carbonate shows high - level volatility [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Silver funds took profits and left the market, causing a significant decline. The Fed's liquidity release led to an emotional release for gold [2] - **Basic Logic**: The Fed announced a reserve management purchase tool, increasing the money supply. UK economic data raised the probability of a rate cut, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation process advanced. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. Silver follows the trading and delivery logic [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, focus on the 955 support for domestic gold and continue to hold long - term value - allocated positions. For silver, beware of high - volatility risks in the short term due to the narrowing of the gold - silver ratio and the existence of delivery risk events [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Copper prices showed a high - level correction, with concerns about the AI bubble leading to long - position profit - taking [4] - **Industrial Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply remains tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and it is the consumption off - season. The COMEX copper has a continuous siphon effect on global copper inventories [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, suggest taking profits on long positions when the price rises. In the long - term, remain optimistic about copper due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand. Short - term price ranges: Shanghai copper [89500, 93500] yuan/ton, London copper [11000, 12000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices declined, with LME zinc falling nearly 2% and Shanghai zinc following the decline [7] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, and supply may shrink in the future. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory decreasing during the off - season [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc prices are falling from high levels. Enterprises are advised to actively arrange short - hedging positions when the price rises. In the long - term, zinc is a short - allocation in the sector. Price ranges: Shanghai zinc [23000, 23500] yuan/ton, London zinc [3100, 3200] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the rebound, while alumina showed an oversold rebound [10] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of aluminum enterprises in the southwest of China may increase in the dry season. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased, but the downstream demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of enterprises [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, take profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21000 - 22200] [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel faced pressure in the rebound [14] - **Industrial Logic**: Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel production target, but the inventory of nickel is still increasing. The stainless steel market has entered the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, recommend short - selling on the rebound for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [114000 - 117000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 rose first and then fell, and the position decreased significantly at the end of the session [18] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic production remains high, and overseas supply pressure has eased. The sales volume of new energy vehicles at the beginning of December was lower than expected, but the demand from the energy storage sector was strong. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and wait and see. The price range is [96100 - 97700] [20]

【导读】A股大消费板块回暖，乳业概念股异军突起；光通信、CPO等走弱；一品红20cm跌停 12月15日，A股三大指数集体低开，上证指数跌0.62%，深证成指跌0.81%，创业板指跌1.16%；3800只个股开盘下跌。截至发稿，市场跌幅已有明显收 窄。 | 全A | 涨 2808 平 190 | 跌 2455 A股成交额 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 序号 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 1 - | 000001 上证指数 | 3887.54 | -1.80 | -0.05% | | വ | 399001 深证成指 | | 13217.40 -40.93 | -0.31% | | ന | 899050 北证50 | 1448.34 | 0.64 | 0.04% | | ব | 881001 万得全A | 6265.45 | -1.61 | -0.03% | | ഗ | 000688 科创50 | 1335.79 | -13.09 | -0.97% | | 6 | 399006 创业板指 | 3169.35 | -25.01 | -0.78% | ...

围绕AI前景的担忧情绪正在冲击全球市场，导致亚洲股市周一承压，而避险资产黄金则延续涨势。 12月15日周一，受上周五华尔街科技股抛售潮的传导影响，MSCI亚太股票指数下跌0.7%。作为今年AI投资热潮的典型代表，韩国股市领跌，其 首尔综指一度低开2.7%，三星电子跌超3%。 与此同时，LME伦铜延续涨势上扬超1%，最新报11659美元/吨。 | 综合铜03 LCPT （2025-12-15 09:45:47） 交易所: 伦敦金属交易所 【 +加自选 | | | | 期货行情 外汇行情 黄金期货 综合铜吧 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11659.00↑ | 成交里:0 | 今开:11545.50 | 最高:11674.50 | 涨跌幅:1.25% | 外盘:0 | 仓差:0 | | 144.00 1.25% | 持仓里:0 | 昨结:11515.00 | 最低:11541.50 | 张跌额:144.00 | 内盘:0 | 日增:0 | 澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数下跌0.7%，而日经225指数低开低走跌超1%。 市场情绪的转变推动 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 15 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：海外波动影响情绪 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：重要会议落地，盘面波动加大 4 | | 蛋白粕：国际大豆仍然承压 | 粕类小幅回落 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价走强 | 国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂整体震荡偏弱 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 生猪：现货维持稳定 | 盘面小幅回落 8 | | 花生：大型油厂开始收购，花生盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：库存较低 | 苹果基本面偏强 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：钢铁出口管理范围扩大，钢价震荡运行 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部震荡，关注交易逻辑的变化 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本有支撑，需求存压制 15 | | 金银：宏观不确定性提升 | 金银波动放大 16 | | --- | --- | | 铂钯 ...