Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD has raised market concerns regarding the future trajectory of the RMB exchange rate and its impact on the Chinese stock market [1][2][4] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate has shown a significant upward trend since early April, recovering the "7.2" level by the end of May, with a 1.01% increase in May alone and a total increase of 1.48% since the beginning of the year [1] - The offshore RMB has mirrored this trend, rising 2.03% year-to-date as of May 28 [1] - The USD index has declined over 8% since the beginning of the year, falling from a high of 109 to below 100 [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two factors: the depreciation of the USD and proactive domestic macroeconomic policies that enhance economic resilience [2] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and accelerated fiscal spending, which have provided internal support for the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 3: Impact on Chinese Stock Market - The strengthening of the RMB is expected to attract more foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with Goldman Sachs projecting a potential 3% appreciation of the RMB against the USD over the next 12 months [4] - Historical data suggests that when the RMB appreciates, the Chinese stock market tends to perform well, aligning with trading patterns observed in other Asian emerging markets [4] - A 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD could lead to an approximate 3% increase in returns for the Chinese stock market, assuming other conditions remain constant [4]

28日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者提问称，我们注意到，2025年全球贸易投资促进峰会 在北京举办期间，中国美国商会会长何迈可表示，关税战就像一场"事实验证"，证明中国是美国重要的 商品市场，也是美国商品重要的供应来源，摩根大通等多家美国企业表示，将持续在华投资，深耕中国 市场，参与中国经济增长和创新。发言人对此有何评论？对此毛宁表示，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共 赢，作为全球体量最大的两个经济体，经贸合作为两国企业和消费者带来了实实在在的利益。中美日内 瓦经贸会谈之后，美国采购商的订单激增，中美航运市场一船难求，充分反映了两国之间巨大的双向需 求，保护主义没有出路，我们欢迎包括美国企业在内的各国企业，在中国经营发展深化合作，共创机 遇，共享未来。(环球网) ...

据报道援引彭博社报道，美国商务部于当地时间20日初步裁定中国关键电池组件存在补贴，认为中国活性阳极材料生产商获得高额政府补贴， 这一裁定为后续加征反补贴关税铺平了道路。美国方面的这一动作，无疑是中美经贸关系中的又一次"交锋"。 5月20日，美国商务部发布了"对原产于中国的活性阳极材料反补贴调查"的裁定公告。公告宣称，两家中国企业未充分配合调查，依据"不利推 定事实"推断其补贴率超过700%，而其他中国企业补贴率为6.55%。活性阳极材料，作为电动汽车电池的核心组件之一，由石墨、硅等材料构 成，其对电池的性能、寿命和安全性有着直接影响。而中国，目前供应着全球大部分的石墨。根据Capstone LLC数据，美国59%的天然石墨和 68%的人造石墨进口依赖中国。 电动汽车电池（资料图） 此次调查始于2024年12月18日，由美国行业协会——美国活性阳极材料生产商联盟就补贴问题提交申诉。值得注意的是，这些调查独立于美国 政府对贸易伙伴加征的广泛关税，也不同于拟对半导体、药品等商品征收的额外关税。此外，在今年3月，美国众议院还通过了《与依赖外国 对手电池脱钩法案》，禁止美国国土安全部从宁德时代、比亚迪等6家中国公司购买 ...

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨曾芳 图 源丨图虫 人民币汇率强劲走势延续。 5月26日，在岸和离岸人民币汇率日内双双升破7.17，创下自2024年11月以来的最高值。 Wind数据显示，截至5月26日16时30分，在岸人民币汇率收报7.1843，较上一交易日上涨52 点，日内最高触及7.1674。离岸人民币日内最高触及7.1616，均价7.17。月线来看，5月在岸 人民币上涨906个基点，离岸人民币月内已上涨超千点。 中间价方面，中国外汇交易中心公布5月26日人民币对美元中间价为7.1833，较上一交易日大 幅提升86点，上调幅度为今年1月以来的最大值。 中国建投投资研究院主任张志前对21世纪经济报道记者表示，人民币汇率中间价大幅调升， 说明做市商报价整体上较前一日更倾向于人民币升值，反映出市场对人民币的预期较为乐 观，在综合因素作用下，做市商认为人民币有更强的购买力和价值。 对于今日人民币汇率走强，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析称， 近期美元贬值趋势延续， 推动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍升值。可以看到，受美国众议院通过特朗普财政法案等 影响，市场对未来美国政府财政赤字和债务增加的悲观预期加剧，导致近期美元指数再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) continues, with both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates surpassing 7.17, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of May 26, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1843, up 52 points from the previous trading day, with an intraday high of 7.1674. The offshore RMB reached a high of 7.1616, averaging 7.17. In May, the onshore RMB rose by 906 basis points, while the offshore RMB increased by over 1,000 points [1]. - The People's Bank of China set the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.1833 on May 26, a significant increase of 86 points, the largest adjustment since January of this year [1]. Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar, driven by concerns over the US fiscal health and the impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration [2][3]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and accelerated fiscal spending, have bolstered the resilience of the Chinese economy against external fluctuations, providing internal support for the RMB [2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts note that the appreciation of the RMB is influenced by the strengthening of other Asian currencies, such as the Korean won, and the easing of external depreciation pressures due to positive developments in US-China trade talks [3]. - The narrowing of the exchange rate gap between onshore and offshore RMB indicates strong motivation among overseas institutions to support RMB appreciation [3]. Economic Implications - Continuous RMB appreciation can enhance its attractiveness and reflect market confidence in the Chinese economy, potentially benefiting the stock market. However, it may also reduce the competitiveness of export goods, impacting domestic employment [3]. - Maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is crucial, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and reducing reliance on exports, as excessive appreciation or depreciation could destabilize the Chinese economic fundamentals [3][4]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the performance of the US dollar. The complexity of resolving high tariff issues suggests that RMB fluctuations will continue, but the likelihood of sustained unilateral appreciation is low [4]. - The RMB is expected to experience a dual-directional fluctuation process against the dollar, with relatively smaller amplitude compared to other major currencies, indicating a more stable outlook [4].

特朗普（资料图） 归根结底，特朗普不可能真的让美国与中国脱钩，无论那些声量最高的对华鹰派怎么说、怎么做，美国内部想继续与中国做生意的大有人在。 不是中国单方面地需要美国市场，反过来说，美国同样离不开中国市场。美国自以为手里有充足的施压筹码，殊不知中国为任何情况都做好了 准备。在我们眼里，美国确实是世界最大贸易逆差国不假，即便如此，其对外贸易额也只有全球贸易额的13%。可以说，中美经贸问题发展到 今天，特朗普政府的一举一动，都没有超出中国的预料。 现在回头看，这场持续月余的关税博弈，简直就是新时代国际关系的活教材。美国以为拿着关税大棒就能吓住人，结果反被自己的套路绊了个 跟头。中国用实际行动证明，对付霸凌者最好的办法，就是把预案做足、把实力练强。就像下棋，你走你的"反复无常"，我自有我的"见招拆 招"。说到底，国际政治这场大棋局，终究还是实力说了算。特朗普政府要是还看不明白这个道理，继续在"美国优先"的迷梦里自嗨，迟早要 被时代的车轮碾个粉碎。 在中美经贸博弈的棋局中，中国早已看透特朗普政府的底色——"反复无常"。从2018年贸易战初期的"极限施压"，到2025年日内瓦联合声明后 的"暂时休战"，美国始终在"漫 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第15期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-14期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 静待三条线索的发酵。 在上周报告《下限已经抬高，上限尚待打开》中，我们认为：对权益资产来说，4月以来市场在一次性风险计提之后，基于逆周期政 策"对冲"和贸易环境"冲回"两大逻辑，已逐步定价了基本面的"下限抬高"。下一阶段的关键在于能否进一步推动内需短板领域的积极变化，以进一步打开"上 限"。 那么，基本面的上限如何进一步打开？目前有三个线索初显端倪： 一是政府投资，在发债和项目落地加速之后，逻辑上存在开工加快阶段。4月是发债加速的阶段，特别国债自4月24日开始发行，包括银行注资特别国债和超长期 特别国债，后者较去年提前一个月；新增专项债也有小幅加速。5月是项目落地进一步加速的阶段，5月中旬两办下发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》[1]；5 月20日发改委指出"力争6月底前下达完毕今年全部'两重'建设项目清单"[2]。发债和项目落地加快之后一般会存在开工的加速。从石油沥青开工率来看，其5月以 来中枢有初步上行。二季度末三季度初开工特征会不会更为显著值得进一步观察。为什么这个线索比较重要？从4月经济数据看，经济的长板是"两新 ...

以下文章来源于时代周报 ，作者孙艺格 时代周报 . 记录大时代，深读全商业。互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：44120230006 本文来自微信公众号： 时代周报 ，作者：孙艺格，原文标题：《中美互降关税一周后的义乌：有商 家通宵赶工，有商家咨询量增加，有商家仍在等机会》，头图来自：作者拍摄 5月14日，中美双方正式实施调整后的关税政策。根据《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，美国取消 对中国商品加征的91%关税，修改4月2日来对中国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停 加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。 相应地，中国也取消对美国商品加征的91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停 其中24%的关税90天，剩余10%的关税予以保留。 在降低关税的同时，美国还下调或撤销对中国小额包裹 （包括香港特别行政区小额包裹） 加征的关 税，将国际邮件从价税率由120%下调至54%，撤销原定于2025年6月1日起将从量税由每件100美元 调增为200美元的措施。 贸易追踪机构Vizion发布的数据显示，在美国和中国互降关税之后，在美国下单的从中国到美国的集 装箱运输预订量飙升近300%。 Vizion ...

Group 1 - The intertwined and complementary supply chains between China and the U.S. make it difficult for the two economies to decouple [2][4] - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 12.50% in 2019 due to tariffs, but rebounded to $451.81 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 7.90% [2] - In 2022, China's exports to the U.S. reached a record high of $581.78 billion, up 21.60% compared to 2018, indicating that the impact of tariffs was temporary [2] Group 2 - The Biden administration's "small yard, high walls" policy has had a more significant negative impact on China's exports to the U.S., which fell to $500.29 billion in 2023, a decrease of 13.15% from 2022 [2][3] - Despite the decline, exports began to recover in the third quarter of 2023, with December 2024 exports projected to reach $48.83 billion, an annualized rate of approximately $585.96 billion, slightly above the 2022 record [3] Group 3 - Experts agree that the deep economic interdependence between China and the U.S. makes a "no-cost decoupling" impossible, and the U.S. reliance on Chinese products is underestimated [4] - The current economic resilience in China is supported by strong export performance and industrial production, with monetary policy expected to play a key role in addressing external uncertainties [4][5] - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a positive shift in profit growth observed in Q1 2025, signaling the end of a four-year downturn [5]

Group 1 - Senator Rand Paul argues that the Trump administration exaggerated the trade deficit with China, suggesting that trade deficits do not have significant economic implications, as both countries have prospered despite the deficit [1] - The current economic dynamics between China and the U.S. can be simplified as a game between a seller with monopoly power (China) and a buyer with monopoly power (the U.S.), with U.S. businesses struggling to find alternatives to Chinese suppliers in the short term [3] - China dominates the rare earth market, accounting for over 60% of global production and 92% of processing, which poses risks to U.S. industries reliant on these materials, particularly in military and high-tech sectors [3] Group 2 - Rare earth elements are critical for various industries, including electronics and defense, as they enhance the capabilities of materials used in military equipment [6] - The U.S. faces increasing internal economic and political challenges, with agricultural states urging improved relations with China, while the military-industrial complex pushes for a tougher stance, complicating the political landscape for future administrations [6] - The U.S. unilateral tariff policies have led to backlash from traditional allies, damaging its international reputation and complicating trade relations [6]