Group 1: Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is slowly recovering but still tight, with some mines still shut down.成材 prices rose slightly, improving market sentiment. Some downstream coke enterprises replenished inventory due to low stock levels, and the auction prices of some coal types increased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. Coal prices remained stable under downstream demand [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1150, basis is -83, indicating spot discount to futures [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week, including 805.8 tons in steel mills, 255.5 tons in ports, and 829.4 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, with short positions increasing [3]. - Expectation: Market sentiment has improved, and downstream procurement has increased. However, due to poor profits, enterprises remain cautious. Coking and steel enterprises mainly purchase on - demand. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to be weakly stable [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke enterprises' production is stable, and shipments are smooth. Some coke enterprises' inventory is increasing, but overall inventory is still low. The stable and rising coking coal prices support coke prices [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1630, basis is -104.5, indicating spot discount to futures [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week, including 609.8 tons in steel mills, 215.1 tons in ports, and 39.3 tons in independent coke enterprises [7]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it [7]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, with short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: Coke enterprises still have profit margins and high production enthusiasm, with general inventory pressure. As cost support strengthens, market sentiment is boosted. Tangshan's production restrictions reduce the expectation of price cuts by steel mills. Short - term coke prices are expected to be weakly stable [7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish: Iron - water production is rising, and supply is difficult to increase [5]. - Bearish: Coking and steel enterprises are slowing down raw coal procurement, and steel prices are weak [5]. Coke - Bullish: Iron - water production and blast furnace operating rates are rising [9]. - Bearish: Steel mills' profit margins are squeezed, and some replenishment demand has been overdrawn [9]. Group 3: Price Information Coking Coal - On September 17 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some price increases [10]. Coke - On September 17 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports, including different types and origins, are provided [11]. Group 4: Inventory Information Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory - Coking coal inventory in independent coke enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. Steel Mills' Inventory - Coking coal inventory in steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Group 5: Other Information - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance periods for soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,334 yuan/ton, and the basis is -99 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.37% to 1,334 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 0.82% to 1,235 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 13.16% to -99 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, including 421,700 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [35]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level and cost support has weakened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch due to capacity mismatch is difficult to change [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 219,000 tons (low), silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), with a production profit of - 82 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 70,800 tons (high), with an import loss of 140 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is 55.5%, a 0.36% increase from the previous week (low) [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 255 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 539,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,950 tons, a 1.84% increase; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [7]. - Expectation: The supply - side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is predicted to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 165,500 tons, a 1.78% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. In August, battery cell production was 58.27GW, a 0.13% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of external - sales battery cell factories was 4.62GW, a 40.84% decrease. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 60.04GW, a 3.03% increase. In August, component production was 49.2GW, a 4.45% increase from the previous month, and the expected production for September is 50.3GW, a 2.23% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 12, the price of N - type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2060 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [9]. - Expectation: The short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts show various changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China is 9095 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the previous value [15]. - Inventory data shows that most inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, have increased to varying degrees [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the daily price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers (130μm) is 1.28 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous value [17]. - The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends. For example, the weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease [17]. 3. Price and Basis Trends - The price and basis trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented through charts, showing historical price changes and the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][23]. 4. Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon inventory includes交割库及港口库存, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts, all of which show certain trends of change over time [26]. - Polysilicon inventory also shows different trends, with the total inventory showing a certain increase [17]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions, such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, show different trends over time [28][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also shows different trends [29]. 6. Cost Trends - The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, such as Sichuan 421, Yunnan 421, and Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553, are presented through charts [36]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon show the relationship between production, import, export, consumption, and balance over different time periods [38][41]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon also shows the relationship between supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, are presented [44][46][50]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, production, and operating rate trends of aluminum alloy, as well as the demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub industries, are presented [53][56][57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and component cost - profit, are presented [63][66][69]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - **Threaded Steel**: The demand shows no sign of improvement, the inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the weak real - estate market, cooling future demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With a positive basis, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Given the weakening market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [7]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Fundamentals**: Negative due to poor demand, rising inventory, and a weak downstream real - estate industry [2]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 93 and a spot price of 3220 [2]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 35 major cities is 487.23 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. - **Disk**: Negative as the price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and an increase in short positions [2]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Neutral as both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect [7]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 36 and a spot price of 3400 [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 33 major cities is 292.44 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [7]. - **Disk**: Neutral as the price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [7]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and a decrease in short positions [7]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the seasonal off - peak of downstream demand and pessimistic expectations [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price may rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On September 11, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 234 lots today, with a position of about 76,000 lots. The highest price was 13,370 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,320 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that the weight reduction in the breeding end is beneficial to the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and the increase in subsequent slaughter volume is limited [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if a negative cycle forms, the pig price may rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. Market Overview - The national average live pig slaughter price on September 11 was 13.33 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.52 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.07%; the 03 contract was 13,015 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 05 contract was 13,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.15%; the 07 contract was 14,285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.14%; the 09 contract was 13,090 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or - 0.87%; the 11 contract was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was 200 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 2.56% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Recently, there have been few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,287 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 87 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start - up plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,281 yuan/ton | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan | | Current value | 1,287 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan | | Change rate | 0.47% | 0.84% | - 4.40% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production capacity output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 751,700 tons, including 411,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start - up of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production - sales ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 75.92% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [28][34]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [37]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] - **Main Risk Points**: Implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,577.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 147 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The net position of the main position is short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,827 - 4,887 [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿正常生产，部分偶发事故煤矿有所停产。焦炭落实第一轮降价后下游焦企利润压 缩，对原料煤多按需采购，贸易环节观望居多，煤矿销售一般，考虑终端需求欠佳，市场看降情绪仍存， 部分煤种价格有继续回落预期；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1130，基差13；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：下游部分焦企产能利用率相对持稳，但多数焦钢企业补库接近尾声，市场需求渐弱，叠加近 期钢材价格偏弱，市场情绪趋于谨慎，焦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: There are few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass declines, and terminal demand weakens. The soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1281 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 91 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 182.21 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Given the supply - demand situation, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry production is at a historical high [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. - The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1278 | 1210 | - 68 | | Current Value | 1281 | 1190 | - 91 | | Change Rate | 0.23% | - 1.65% | 33.82% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1190 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. -开工率 and production: The weekly industry operating rate is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production is 75.17 tons, including 41.12 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio is 97.80% [25]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% and stable. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues to decline significantly [28][34]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 182.21 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [37]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise device maintenance volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the building asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 6.05% month - on - month, the asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3447 - 3489 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production volume in August decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, with a decrease in capacity utilization rate and output and an increase in maintenance volume. Supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing profit and the profit difference with delayed coking changed, and crude oil weakening may lead to weaker support [9]. - **Likely factors**: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - **Main logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base difference**: On September 4th, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference was 98 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month. Social and factory inventories are in a destocking state, while port inventory is in a stocking state, which is neutral [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20, which is negative [11]. - **Main position**: The main position is net long, but the long position decreased, which is positive [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base difference trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China base differences [20]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil prices [26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratios [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trend**: The report shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt profit [38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trend of weekly shipment volume [44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly output [49]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output [53]. - **Local refinery asphalt output**: The report shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output [56]. - **开工率**: The report shows the historical trend of weekly开工率 [59]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: The report shows the historical trend of maintenance loss volume estimate [61]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) [64]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) [68]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio [71]. - **Import - export situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference from South Korea [74][77]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke output**: The report shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output [80]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of apparent consumption [83]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) [95][98][99]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [104].