Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For螺纹**: The demand shows no improvement, inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory situation and price on the 20 - day line, but a net - short position of the main contract (with short positions decreasing), it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation considering the weak real - estate market, cooling demand and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - **For热卷**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. With a positive basis, inventory situation and price on the 20 - day line, but a net - short position of the main contract (with short positions decreasing), it is also expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the weakening market supply - demand, blocked exports and domestic capacity - reduction plans [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹** - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, inventory is low and slightly decreasing, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of螺纹 is 3400, and the basis is 152, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 372.97 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of螺纹 is net - short, and short positions are decreasing, which is negative [2]. - **Likely Factors**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations are positive; the continued downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand are negative [2][3]. **热卷** - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, with domestic policies potentially playing a role, being neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of热卷 is 3460, and the basis is 63, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 267.16 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of热卷 is net - short, and short positions are decreasing, which is negative [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations are positive; the entry of downstream demand into the seasonal off - season and pessimistic expectations are negative [6][7][8].

尿素早报 2025-7-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国内宏观政策带来原料端利好影响。国内供应方面，日产及 开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开 工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品 现货1820（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差82，升贴水比例4.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存143.1万吨（+0.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，翻空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，宏观政策原料端利好，国内整体供过 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.88%，环比增加.77个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38%，环比增加.45个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.52%，环比减少1.23个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rebar, considering the poor demand, low - level slightly decreasing inventory, weak purchasing willingness of traders, and the downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry, it should be treated with a high - level oscillation mindset. The real - estate market remains weak, future demand will cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market [2]. - For hot - rolled coil, with both supply and demand weakening, continuous inventory reduction, blocked exports, and potential domestic policy efforts, it should also be treated with a high - level oscillation mindset as the market supply - demand situation weakens and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, traders' purchasing willingness is weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: Rebar spot price is 3430, and the basis is 74; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 3.7297 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; bullish [2]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Likely factors**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3]. - **Negative factors**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [3]. Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role; neutral [6]. - **Basis**: Hot - rolled coil spot price is 3500, and the basis is - 7; neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.6716 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; bullish [6]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [6]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - **Likely factors**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7]. - **Negative factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国内宏观政策、煤炭走势带来原料端利好影响。国内供应方 面，日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落， 三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1790（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差-13，升贴水比例-0.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存142.2万吨（+18.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，翻多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-24燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油炼油利润率连续第二日小幅回升，而含硫0.5%船用燃料油近月价差在短期供 应充足背景下，持续徘徊于三个多月来最窄的贴水水平；新加坡380CST高硫燃料油现货贴水从7月21日的 6.58美元/吨收窄至6美元/吨，得益于托克集团对8月下半月装船货报出坚挺买盘；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为401.14美元/吨，基差为83元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为505.5美元/吨，基差 为146元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月16日当周库存为2035.9万桶，减少45万桶；偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为77.59%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.032万吨，环比增加0.63%, 乙烯法企业产量11.589万吨，环比增加1.31%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减 少，预计排产增加幅度可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为40.11%，环比减少1个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为34.55%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.75%，环比减少3.92个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-24） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期国家能源局组织开展煤矿生产情况核查，焦煤供应有收紧预期。而下游需求持续向好， 市场交投氛围活跃，近日煤矿线上竞拍成交结果良好，仅个别资源出现流拍现象，加之目前焦炭市场持 续走强，市场信心增加，支撑煤价延续稳中偏强的局面；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1010，基差-125.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：成材价格上涨，带动焦钢市场情绪向好，部分焦钢企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: In the short term, PTA is expected to have weak drivers and its price will follow cost fluctuations. The PTA devices are operating stably, the Sanfangxiang device is planned to be put into production, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, polyester sales are weak, and inventory pressure is emerging. Polyester manufacturers are calling for production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - **MEG**: In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to move upwards. In mid - July, the arrival of ethylene glycol at ports is limited, and the visible inventory is expected to decline at the beginning of this week. From July to August, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the power system recovery in Saudi Arabia [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On July 22, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, with a small number of polyester factories making bids. The spot basis was weak. The negotiation and transaction price range was 4740 - 4805. The mainstream spot basis on July 23 was 09 + 2 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4772, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 22, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories was 3.86 days, with no change compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position was decreasing [6]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On July 22, the price center of ethylene glycol moved upwards. The market negotiation was acceptable. Affected by the restart of some Saudi devices, the futures price declined slightly in the morning, and the spot price was around 4460 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the futures price rose, and the high - level spot price was above 4520 yuan/ton. The price center of the external market also moved upwards [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4490, and the basis of the 09 contract was 43, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 49.40 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position was decreasing [7]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, import, consumption, and inventory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, production, import, consumption, and port inventory [11]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: It includes the spot price of PET bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and price differences between different contracts of PTA and MEG [13][16][23][29]. - **Spread**: It involves the basis of PTA and MEG, month - to - month spreads, and spot spreads [26][29][36]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory of PTA factories, MEG ports, PET slices, and various types of polyester products in China [39][41][44]. 3.6开工率分析 - **Upstream of Polyester**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Downstream of Polyester**: It presents the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.7 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the processing fees of PTA from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It presents the production profits of different production methods of ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profits of polyester short - fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while facing weak demand on the negative side. For PP, similar factors are at play, with cost support and macro - policy driving growth, but also suffering from weak demand [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilization plan for key industries including the petrochemical sector. In the supply - demand aspect, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and the packaging film market has slightly improved, with overall weak downstream demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 36, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 million tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with the off - season for agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic indicators in June show a certain situation. The supply - demand side is in the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 127, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.8%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7216 (unchanged), the basis is - 36 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 5822 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 58.7 million tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 53.7 million tons (unchanged) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7013 (unchanged), the basis is 127 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 10083 (unchanged), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 56.6 million tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 25.8 million tons (unchanged) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].