来源：极速财讯 3·市场信心双重受挫：纳斯达克指数较峰值回落12%，VIX恐慌指数持续高于20警戒线，显示投资者对特朗普激进政策的适应性焦虑。 美国财政部审计风暴持续升级之际，有着"华尔街老兵"之称的资深分析师、前贝莱德高管埃德·道得(Ed Dowd)今日发布了《2025年全球深度衰退的危险》 报告的更新版，直指拜登政府任内通过非法资金注入维持的"虚假繁荣"即将破灭。随着马斯克领导的政府效率部(DOGE)持续揭露财政腐败，高达1150亿美 元的欺诈资金浮出水面，美国经济或面临"短暂但深度的"衰退冲击。 随着政府缩减规模，非法外国人资金被削减，非法移民继续自行离开或者被遣返，道得分析认为，当前美国经济犹如"建立在流沙上的城堡"： 1·虚假繁荣机制瓦解：解决非法移民问题带来的住房租赁需求锐减，可能触发类似2008-2009年的房地产危机，目前全美房价收入比已远远超出合理阈值； 2·消费信心断崖下跌：约1500万非法移民及600万NGO从业人员，会因政策转向担心他们的收入来源，从而产生恐慌性消费收缩； 此前，道得在2月发布的上一版本《2025年全球深度衰退的危险》中提到，"我们预测2025年将出现经济衰退。全球其他 ...

中美交锋仅2月，特朗普心里直打鼓？美联储一把手说出残酷现 实！ 据新华社报道，美国财政部长贝森特日前接受媒体采访时说，美国经济可能会有一些"调整"，但这是"健康的"。不过，他"无法保 证"美国经济不会在特朗普任期内出现衰退。3月以来，外界围绕美国关税政策加剧经济衰退前景的议论日甚，经济数据疲软和股 市持续下跌进一步强化"特朗普衰退"担忧。美国政府高官轮番在媒体面前为当前政策与经济形势辩解，推出一系列"新概念"，引 发议论的同时遭到媒体和专家诟病。 近日美国总统特朗普在接受福克斯新闻台采访时，对美国经济衰退威胁直接提问避而不答。他说，在他执政期间美国经济将是世 界历史上最强的。在直接被问及美国是否会在2025年出现经济衰退时，特朗普说："我们将拥有全世界、全球有史以来最强大的经 济"。特朗普补充说，现在正在为美国经济投入大量资金。早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔在媒体负面预测的背景下不排除美国经济 衰退的可能性，同时指出，衰退的可能性一直存在的。他还承认，市场存在异常高的不确定性。 此时从国际关系的角度来看，特朗普也意识到，与中国全面对抗并不是一个明智的选择。中美两国作为全球最大的两个经济体， 其关系的好坏不仅关系到 ...

传统金融资本开始反扑，特朗普的"头号敌人"，没想到是美国人 特朗普希望降息，美联储却再次决定维持利率不变，那么双方的这种对抗，释放了什么信号？ 当地时间3月19日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间 维持在4.25%至4.50%之间。这是自1月底的会议以来，美联储再次决定维持利率不变。 与此同时，就在当天，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称，"美联储最好还是降息"，因为美国关税影响开始逐渐渗透到经济中。 那么，美联储的决定，为何跟特朗普的呼吁，完全相反呢？ 首先，特朗普之所以要求美联储降息，其实就是想要通过这种方式刺激经济增长并支持其政治议程。 毕竟根据特朗普的关税政策来看，美国经济在2025年确实存在衰退风险，目前已经有很多预测机构上调了美国经济衰退的可能性。 而当有记者就这个问题向特朗普提问时，懂王也是选择避而不答，只是强调：在他执政期间美国经济将是世界历史上最强的。 但有一点是毋庸置疑的，特朗普督促美联储降息，实际上暴露出了他对美国经济可能衰退的担忧。 与此同时，由于特朗普政府在关税以及移民政策上的一些极端做法，导致一些经济学家开始担忧美国可能会出现"物价上涨，经济增长却放缓"的滞胀风险。 本来，美国消费者的信 ...

特朗普重返白宫一个多月以来，其政策对美国国内外产生了巨大的冲击。一方面，特朗普以"提升政府效率"为由，对内加剧党争，试图削弱民主党及华盛顿传 统官僚体系的影响力。另一方面，在对外政策上，特朗普不断强化"美国优先"，不仅对墨西哥、巴拿马等传统势力范围施压，还向加拿大和丹麦提出领土要 求。与此同时，特朗普还改变了拜登政府"联欧抗俄"的地缘政治战略。笔者认为，要理解特朗普的上述行事逻辑，需先明确美国当前面临的几个事实。 美国当前面临的现实：实力今不如昔，内部矛盾日益激化。 美国经济长期"脱实向虚"，其工业产值在全球占比已回落至12%。制造业"硬实力"的衰落，使其对外进 行地缘干预的能力减弱，进而动摇其引以为傲的盟友体系。此外，长期滥用金融霸权不断透支美元和美债体系的信用，"AI霸权"的叙事体系也在其他国家追赶中出 现裂痕。而软硬实力衰退的结果，是其向外输出矛盾的能力减弱，加速了美国国内社会撕裂的显性化。 特朗普看似强硬，但可能只是在唱"空城计"。 本届美国政府对内试图营造"特朗普治下美国一直赢"的叙事体系，发动MAGA力量压制政治对手。对外维持"美国依 然第一"的叙事体系，"软饭硬吃、榨取盟友利益"来兑现地缘利益。 ...

Group 1: Hot Topics - The article discusses the potential economic scenarios for the U.S., questioning whether it will face "stagflation" or recession [7][22] - The recent "late spring cold" phenomenon has had a limited impact on agricultural output and prices, with controllable effects on investment and retail sales [5][4] Group 2: In-depth Research - The article highlights that policy measures aimed at alleviating supply bottlenecks are underestimated by the market, focusing on "consumption-based infrastructure" and breaking consumption supply constraints [8] - A deep analysis of the 2025 fiscal budget is presented, emphasizing its role in addressing economic cycle bottlenecks [8] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes that the "Spring Festival adjustment" is not the main reason for the export slowdown; rather, the end of the "export rush" is crucial [9] - Inflation readings have significantly declined due to the Spring Festival misalignment, with actual levels still remaining weak after adjustments [10] - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell in February, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [11] - Domestic construction activity has seen a decline, indicating a slowdown in the construction industry [12][13] - The central government has reserved ample fiscal space for future policies [14]

文 ｜ 韦昕澄 崔嵘 李翀 贾天楚 美国2月CPI增速全面低于预期和前值，呈现"表里如一"的温和特征，反映了美国通胀继续降温的 趋势。然而，2月CPI并未反映美国加征2 5%钢铝产品关税和第二轮对华加征1 0%关税的通胀影 响，难以打消市场对于美国通胀前景的隐忧，在对等关税详情揭晓前更给人以"暴风雨前的宁静"之 感。我们预计美国总体CPI同比在4月前仍能因基数效应而继续下降、但下半年存在反弹隐忧，美 股不必急于"抄底"，短期在通胀反弹前不妨留意美债的交易机会。 美国2月通胀增速全面低于预期和前值，总体CPI环比升0 . 2%（前值0 . 5%），核心CPI环比升 0 . 2%（前值0 . 4%），总体CPI同比升2 . 8%（前值3 . 0%），核心CPI同比升3 . 1%（前值3 . 3%）， 四个读数都各低于预期0 . 1 p p t。 ▍ 本份CPI报告呈现"表里如一"的温和特征，显示美国通胀继续降温之势。 总体CPI同比重回" 2 "字头，核心CPI同比是2 0 2 1年4月以来最低值，商品CPI环比和服务CPI环比 都较前值回落，除住宅外核心服务CPI同比涨幅亦缩窄至3 . 9%，这些读数都反映了美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been fluctuating around the $2900 per ounce mark, with potential to reach $3000 per ounce, driven by global economic and political uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for four consecutive months since November 2024, holding 2289.53 tons as of February 2025, with a modest increase of 4.98 tons in February [3][4]. - The PBOC's gold purchases are influenced by the need to optimize international reserve structure, as the gold reserve proportion in China's official reserves is only 5.5%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15% [4][6]. - Other central banks globally are also showing interest in gold purchases, although the pace has slowed, with a net purchase of 18 tons in January 2025, down from the previous year [6][7]. Group 2: Future Gold Price Predictions - Analysts predict that the international gold price may reach a new high of $3100 per ounce within the year, supported by ongoing global uncertainties and expected inflows into overseas gold ETFs [2][8]. - The current fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to U.S. economic policy uncertainties and potential recession risks, with short-term price movements expected between $2870 and $2950 per ounce [8][9]. - Long-term investment in gold is considered valuable due to its low correlation with other assets and the protective cushion provided by fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [10].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.41% at 3379.83 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.33% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.19%[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 0.01% to 23782.14 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.39% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.35%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 3070.34 million HKD[1] Economic Policies - The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, with no exemptions for trade partners[3] - Ukraine is prepared to accept a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, contingent on military aid and intelligence sharing[3][8] Corporate Developments - Avatr Technology, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to raise 7.8 billion HKD through a Hong Kong IPO, with a potential launch in May[4] - China National Railway plans to issue 30 billion RMB in bonds, which was oversubscribed by 0.68 times[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[11] - China's PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2% in February, while CPI fell by 0.7%[11] Market Sentiment - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers indicated a nearly 50% chance of a recession in the U.S. this year due to various policy measures undermining confidence[8]

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly below the expected 160,000, with the previous two months' figures revised down by 2,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, while hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5%[2] - The employment diffusion index improved from 52.4 to 58.4, indicating a slight recovery in job expansion despite sector-specific weaknesses[2] Economic Outlook - The mixed economic data has alleviated some recession fears, but the "tight fiscal" approach from the Trump administration is impacting market sentiment negatively[3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 3.51% to 103.84, marking its lowest level since November 2022, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 3.1% and 3.45%, respectively[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast down from -1.48% to -2.41%[3] Sector Analysis - Job losses were concentrated in specific sectors, with the federal government losing 10,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality losing 16,000, primarily due to adverse weather conditions[2] - The service sector showed resilience, with the service PMI at 53.5, exceeding expectations of 52.5, while manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3, below the expected 50.8[3] Fiscal Policy Impact - The divergence between U.S. "tight fiscal" policies and the Eurozone's "fiscal easing" narrative is creating volatility in the markets, particularly affecting U.S. equities[5] - The expectation of limited room for substantial cuts in the U.S. fiscal deficit is influencing market sentiment and risk assets negatively[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high-interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[6]

Economic Outlook - Recent U.S. economic data has shown persistent weakness, leading to a significant downgrade of Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast to a negative range by the Federal Reserve model[1] - The market's recession narrative has resurfaced, with expectations for interest rate cuts rising sharply due to economic concerns and tariff impacts[1] Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.94%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year yield down 22 basis points to 4.21% and the 2-year yield down 21 basis points to 3.99%[1] - Major stock indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng Index dropping by 0.98%, 3.47%, and 2.29% respectively[1] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The January PCE inflation data met expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index for February recorded a low of 98.3, the lowest since June 2024, indicating rising recession expectations among consumers[1] Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's tariff policies have escalated, including a new 10% tariff on China, which has heightened market uncertainty and risk aversion[2] - The House of Representatives passed a budget resolution for FY2025, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may complicate future fiscal policies[2] Employment Projections - The consensus among analysts is for an addition of 160,000 non-farm jobs in February, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.0%[1] - Concerns exist regarding the impact of immigration policies on job growth, which may lead to short-term employment disruptions[1]