Market Overview - On April 7, U.S. stocks opened lower but later surged, with the Nasdaq index rising over 4% before retreating. By the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 390 points, a decline of 1.02% [1] - The Chinese A50 index futures initially surged over 4%, but the gains narrowed to 3.38% by the end of the session [7] Economic Policy Impact - Reports indicated that Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, suggested that President Trump is considering a 90-day suspension of tariffs on certain countries. However, this was later denied by the White House, leading to volatility in the stock market [3][4] - The market reacted to the news of potential tariff suspensions, initially turning positive before reversing course due to the denial [4] Technology Sector Performance - In the technology sector, Nvidia saw a nearly 4% increase, while Apple and Tesla both dropped over 2% [5][6] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices fell sharply, dropping below $3,000 per ounce, trading at $2,991.73 [11] - WTI and Brent crude oil futures continued to decline, with WTI falling below $60 per barrel, marking the lowest level since April 2021. Both crude oil benchmarks have dropped over 20% from their January highs of approximately $80 per barrel, entering a bear market [12][14] OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ announced plans to increase production starting in May, with an additional 410,000 barrels per day, which has contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices [15] U.S. Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about rising inflation and low growth, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid increasing economic uncertainty [17] - The upcoming earnings reports from U.S. companies will provide insights into the microeconomic conditions and potential recession timelines [17]

Group 1 - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of November 21, 2024, marking a record high, with a rapid increase from $35 trillion in just over three months [1] - The rising national debt is attributed to a significant reduction in fiscal revenue and high government spending, with a fiscal deficit reaching $1.8 trillion annually and an upward trend expected [1] - Increased costs associated with social security and healthcare, along with the interest on the national debt, contribute to the growing debt burden, which shows no signs of stabilizing [1] Group 2 - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to a historical low of $760.1 billion by October 2024, marking a significant shift in its investment strategy [3] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by major foreign creditors, including Japan and the UK, has sparked discussions about global capital flows and the status of the U.S. dollar [3] - Japan's reduction of $27.3 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in December 2024 brings its holdings down to $1.0598 trillion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt despite the decrease [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed uncertainty about the economy avoiding recession during Trump's presidency, highlighting the unpredictable nature of economic forecasts [5] - Concerns about a potential recession are growing, with the U.S. stock market experiencing significant sell-offs and consumer confidence declining [8] - Economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve indicate a decrease in expected growth to 1.7%, while inflation predictions are on the rise, leading to warnings from economists about an impending recession [8]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 "我们目前正在见证多头疯狂抛售科技股，对冲基金激进做空宏观产品。"高盛交易员John Flood在名 为"比预期更糟"的盘后报告中直言不讳地描述了"对等关税"冲击下市场的恐慌状态。 市值一夜蒸发逾3万亿美元 在这轮"对等关税"引发的多资产抛售狂潮中，美股的跌势尤为惨烈，市值一夜蒸发逾3万亿美元。截至4 月3日收盘，纳指跌5.97%，创2020年3月以来的最大跌幅；标普500指数跌4.84%，道指跌3.98%，均为 2020年6月以来的最大单日跌幅。 七巨头拖累纳指领跌，苹果暴跌9.25%，市值蒸发约3000亿美元，英伟达大跌7.81%，亚马逊跌8.98%， Meta跌8.96%，特斯拉跌5.47%，谷歌跌4.02%，微软跌2.36%。 作为美国总统特朗普"对等关税"的典型受害者，苹果的跌幅在科技巨头中最为猛烈。苹果曾在特朗普第 一任期时将iPad和AirPods的生产部署在越南，将iPhone的部分生产部署在印度，希望避免关税。但特朗 普2日在白宫签署关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10%的"最低基准关税"，并 对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。特朗普对印度的 ...

4月2日，上海财经大学校长刘元春在江苏扬州的一场公开活动上表示，以DeepSeek事件为标志，中 国科创崛起正在重塑中国资产的估值，中国科创企业正在技术突破、成本控制和商业化应用方面展现独 特优势。在中美科技竞争加剧、全球资本流动格局变化的背景下，中国科创的全面崛起不仅是技术进步 的体现，更是中国叙事逻辑的一次深刻重塑。 刘元春也强调，中国市场结构与市场秩序的治理是中国叙事和中国估值在中期全面持续的一个重要决定因 素，必须上升到新的高度。他还谈道，美国经济是否加速步入衰退期是美国叙事逻辑变化的关键，假如在 4月披露的美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速为负，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）上升突破3%。美联 储很可能在4月下旬或5月份开启新的降息阶段。一旦美国降息，我国货币政策空间将更加充足。 中国资产重估不是短期事件 今年农历新年前后，以DeepSeek事件触发，国际社会出现对于中国发展叙事逻辑的逆转。刘元春表示， DeepSeek在一周之内获得了全世界的热捧，在资本市场只要与DeepSeek相关的股票都快速上升。在这 一轮中国资产的上涨潮里，与新质生产力相关的、战略性新兴产业相关的中国公司股票实现全面引领。但 ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.18%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.38% [1] - Notable declines in chip stocks, with Nvidia dropping over 2.5% and both AMD and Broadcom falling more than 1% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks are trading lower, with Pinduoduo and Baidu down nearly 2% and Alibaba decreasing by 1.35% [2] Apple Inc. - Apple has been fined €150 million by French antitrust regulators for abusing its dominant position in mobile app advertising through a privacy control tool called ATT, leading to a drop of over 1% in its stock price [2] Trade Policy - President Trump is considering imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on global imports, targeting specific industries with additional tariffs [2] Pharmaceutical Developments - Eli Lilly's new experimental drug, lepodisiran, has shown significant potential in reducing levels of lipoprotein(a), a risk factor for heart disease affecting approximately 1.4 billion people globally [2] Tesla Inc. - Analysts predict a decline of 8.5% in Tesla's Q1 global delivery volume, estimating it at 377,000 vehicles, which is a drop of over 20% compared to the previous quarter. The company's projected revenue for Q1 is $22.6 billion, marking the lowest level in a year, resulting in a stock drop of over 4% [3] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 20%, citing that aggressive tariffs will increase inflation and unemployment, hindering economic growth [3] Gold Market - Gold prices have reached a new all-time high of $3,120 per ounce, with the price per kilogram exceeding $100,000 for the first time [3]

自特朗普上台以来，他就牢牢占据着世界媒体的目光，先是给墨西哥湾改名，又意图吞并加拿大和格陵 兰岛，虽然很多时候他只是嘴炮先行，但无疑他的言行还是为世界增添了许多不稳定因素，市场避险情 绪因此持续升温，黄金也开始试探3100大关。 随着关税战的全面开打和美国经济衰退风险的上升，黄金后续很可能将迎来更加剧烈的波动，超级行情 即将来袭！此时恰逢领峰贵金属(igoldtg.top/mKzw6b)双倍积分活动限时开启，给力福利助您火力全开， 擒获机遇！ ● 如何获取积分？ 无需登记报名，活动期间交易黄金、白银，每累计达1手即送400积分。其中200原始积分自动到账；200 额外奖励积分， 需登录用户中心手动领取。积分奖励不设上限，限时2倍福利助力交易，交易越多奖励 越多！ ● 积分有什么作用？ 目前其"胡萝卜加大棒"策略初见成效，现代汽车集团随即宣布210亿美元对美投资计划，其中包含58亿 美元的钢铁厂项目，而韩国和英国也计划，在特朗普对等关税出台前，先行降低对美关税，同时也准备 加大对美投资。 只是目前这些举动都只停留在计划中，但是特朗普的关税危险却已实实在在在进行中，因此市场避险情 绪持续高涨，成为了黄金上探310 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 20% to 35%, nearly doubling the previous estimate, primarily due to the upcoming "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The increase in recession probability reflects lower economic baseline expectations, a sharp decline in consumer and business confidence, and comments from White House officials indicating a willingness to tolerate short-term economic weakness to achieve policy goals [2]. - Goldman Sachs has also raised inflation expectations and lowered GDP growth forecasts, predicting a 0.5 percentage point increase in the core PCE price index to 3.5% by the end of 2025, and a 0.5 percentage point decrease in GDP growth to only 1.0% (year-over-year) [2]. - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% [2]. Federal Reserve Actions - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, specifically in July, September, and November, maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50-3.75% [3]. - Previously, Goldman Sachs had not expected any rate cuts in 2025 and only one in 2026, indicating a significant shift in outlook [4]. Consumer Vulnerability - The economic fundamentals in the U.S. are expected to weaken, with increased consumer vulnerability, and actual income growth projected to be only 1.4% in 2025, significantly lower than in recent years [4]. - Recent declines in consumer sentiment are viewed as more significant due to the current economic fundamentals being weaker than in previous years [5].

作 者丨吴斌,钱伯彦 编 辑丨包芳鸣,张铭心,江佩佩 美股再遭猛烈抛售! 3月2 8日晚间，美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿跌幅还在扩大。热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数一度跌超3%，纳斯达克指数跌2%，万得美国科技七巨头指数暴跌超11 0 0点，跌 幅2 . 3%，年初至今该指数跌幅已超1 4%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 41761.35 | -538.35 | -1.27% | -1.84% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 17445.34 | -358.69 | -2.01% | -9.66% | | града | 标普500 | 5609.50 | -83.81 | -1.47% | -4.63% | | NDX | 纳斯达克100 | 19426.67 | -371.95 | -1.88% | -7.55% | | MAGS | 万得美国科技七巨头指数 | 47309.67 | -1112.78 | -2.30% | -14.34 ...

来源：极速财讯 3·市场信心双重受挫：纳斯达克指数较峰值回落12%，VIX恐慌指数持续高于20警戒线，显示投资者对特朗普激进政策的适应性焦虑。 美国财政部审计风暴持续升级之际，有着"华尔街老兵"之称的资深分析师、前贝莱德高管埃德·道得(Ed Dowd)今日发布了《2025年全球深度衰退的危险》 报告的更新版，直指拜登政府任内通过非法资金注入维持的"虚假繁荣"即将破灭。随着马斯克领导的政府效率部(DOGE)持续揭露财政腐败，高达1150亿美 元的欺诈资金浮出水面，美国经济或面临"短暂但深度的"衰退冲击。 随着政府缩减规模，非法外国人资金被削减，非法移民继续自行离开或者被遣返，道得分析认为，当前美国经济犹如"建立在流沙上的城堡"： 1·虚假繁荣机制瓦解：解决非法移民问题带来的住房租赁需求锐减，可能触发类似2008-2009年的房地产危机，目前全美房价收入比已远远超出合理阈值； 2·消费信心断崖下跌：约1500万非法移民及600万NGO从业人员，会因政策转向担心他们的收入来源，从而产生恐慌性消费收缩； 此前，道得在2月发布的上一版本《2025年全球深度衰退的危险》中提到，"我们预测2025年将出现经济衰退。全球其他 ...

中美交锋仅2月，特朗普心里直打鼓？美联储一把手说出残酷现 实！ 据新华社报道，美国财政部长贝森特日前接受媒体采访时说，美国经济可能会有一些"调整"，但这是"健康的"。不过，他"无法保 证"美国经济不会在特朗普任期内出现衰退。3月以来，外界围绕美国关税政策加剧经济衰退前景的议论日甚，经济数据疲软和股 市持续下跌进一步强化"特朗普衰退"担忧。美国政府高官轮番在媒体面前为当前政策与经济形势辩解，推出一系列"新概念"，引 发议论的同时遭到媒体和专家诟病。 近日美国总统特朗普在接受福克斯新闻台采访时，对美国经济衰退威胁直接提问避而不答。他说，在他执政期间美国经济将是世 界历史上最强的。在直接被问及美国是否会在2025年出现经济衰退时，特朗普说："我们将拥有全世界、全球有史以来最强大的经 济"。特朗普补充说，现在正在为美国经济投入大量资金。早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔在媒体负面预测的背景下不排除美国经济 衰退的可能性，同时指出，衰退的可能性一直存在的。他还承认，市场存在异常高的不确定性。 此时从国际关系的角度来看，特朗普也意识到，与中国全面对抗并不是一个明智的选择。中美两国作为全球最大的两个经济体， 其关系的好坏不仅关系到 ...