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大越期货国债期货早报-20250516

Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:01

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.24%, and yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds rebounded. The overall capital environment remained warm, and the follow - up situation of this month's Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) roll - over should be noted. The liquidity remained stable after the reserve requirement ratio cut rather than becoming more relaxed. The futures bonds are expected to remain volatile in the future [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Periodic Bond Market Review - **Fundamentals**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.24%, and yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds rebounded. The overall capital environment remained warm, and the follow - up situation of this month's MLF roll - over should be noted [3] - **Funding**: On May 15, the People's Bank of China conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. That day, 1586 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1250 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2191 billion yuan on a full - caliber basis [3] - **Basis**: The basis of TS main contract is - 0.0297, with the spot discounting the futures, indicating a bearish signal. The basis of TF main contract is 0.0471, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal. The basis of T main contract is 0.1410, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal. The basis of TL main contract is 0.3601, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal [3] - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion yuan, 1493.5 billion yuan, and 2356.6 billion yuan respectively, showing a neutral situation [4] - **Market**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Main Positions**: The TS main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing. The TF main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing. The T main contract has a net long position, and the long position is decreasing [5] - **Expectation**: The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. After the tariff war suspension shock was quickly released and the reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented, the capital supply remained loose, and the continuous adjustment momentum of the bond market was still limited. The futures bonds are expected to remain volatile [5] 2. Market Review - The table shows the market elements of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts, including the current price, increase or decrease, trading volume, open interest, daily position increase, and CTD bonds [7][8] 3. Spot Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and inter - bank treasury bond yields and treasury bond term spreads, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [9][13] 4. Basis Analysis - There are data on the basis of CTD bonds of T2506, TF2506, and TS2506 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [15][17][18]